In some cases I am unlucky (or lucky) on several rolls in the following. I do attack with 11 armies against 4 and loose 10 vs. 2. The whole round seems fubar. In other cases it is the other way round: I have a huge series of attacks winning, say, 75% of the rolls.
I am in game 120991, too and I also noted $haDe to play the first game, which was very strange. I'll keep my eyes open and report back if there is a further hint... Especially when looking to the nearly perfect positioning of the armies