One night ultimate werewolf round 2 - Town wins!

[DoomYoshi]

Derp. Good point Ragian. I think it's entirely possible that Falko/BuJaber are both werewolves...

[madmitch]

@Ragian if Mars is telling the truth then I guess I would be the robber,but when he claimed that he stole the witch off me it made no sense to me until I thought about it.He knew no one would hang him if he was minion so he must have thought someone would counter claim the witch and think he was a were wolf, he must have shit his pants when I confirmed his claim

[Ragian]

You forgot the important bit about the possible existence of two villagers in play. That's sort of important to me given that I'm a villager.

So, Mitch has not been truthful, but I get what he has done. And I sort of like his play. (Also, it places the minion, which is good stuff.)

What seems to be the pickle is to sort out whether I'm lying or if both Falko and BuJ are lying. Although perhaps less likely, either of BuJ or Falko could be werewolf and tanner respectively. I reckon they wouldn't give each other up in that case. The tanner would want to be lynched so he wouldn't give up the werewolf, but the tanner might retaliate if the werewolf gave up the tanner.

Another possibility could be that Doom is lying in which case Falko and BuJ aren't necessarily tied to each other. But why would Doom do this? To what end?

A slightly less likely possibility is that dakky and IB are in it together and made a friggin' bold move, but I don't think so. Could've been game over after five minutes.

---
Mitch - Robber (switched with Marashu)
Marashu - Minion (switched with Mitch)
---
IB - Insomniac (I believe it given the early claim)
Dakky - Seer (I believe it given the early claim)
Doom - Troublemaker
---
Ragian - Villager
Falko - Villager
BuJ - Villager
---
3 cards in the centre
---
If we assume that the witch would claim (which I reckon is highly probable), we can infer that the witch is still in the centre. --> 2 cards left.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this to be honest. I am trying to do some math/probability...ish... It's not my strong suit. Does it even make sense to try to solve it like that?

[Ragian]

I'm getting nowhere. I keep going back to not believing Falko.

[Ragian]

No, wait. That doesn't make any sense. Obviously, I'm coming from a perspective where I know I am town, so I don't blame anyone for not agreeing with the following.

A) BuJ started as Tanner while Falko started as werewolf. Doom switched them. Falko is now the Tanner (hence his staying quiet in order to get lynched - which to some extent has worked as several (including me) have voiced thoughts about voting him) while BuJ is now a werewolf (which is why he wants me lynched).

B) Doom never switched BuJ and Falko because he's a werewolf in cahoots with either of the two. He said he switched them in order to get me lynched.

Come on! Any takers?

[dakky21]

No, wait. That doesn't make any sense. Obviously, I'm coming from a perspective where I know I am town, so I don't blame anyone for not agreeing with the following.

I don't get just one thing. How do you know you're town? Hell, I don't know if I'm the Seer, but you know you're town. How? What if the Robber/Troublemaker switched you with a werewolf? And claimed another switch? Just saying, you repeated ten times already "you know you're town" and I just ask how?

[Falkomagno]

I have not being quiet, I know i will not be lynched.

Your scenarios doesn't make any sense, as there is only 2 villager plus an insomniac. So there is not possible to list you, BuJ and me at the same time as villager. That is one lead.
There is another leads, for example the almost instant confirmation of IB (insomiac) by Dakky (seer). That do not mean itself that they are werewolves, but is certainly a chance. Remember the werewolves know each other but not the minor .
Another lead is Marashu (robber) confirming Mitch (witch). Also a couple worth to analyze. specially since now mitch says he was the minor all along.
Dont forget that doom said he was the trouble maker, and swap BuJ and me. So in theorie we are both villagers, but that can not be.

I would vote mitch for lying

[Ragian]

The same way that you know that you're the seer. It's the term "know" that I'm probably using slightly casually. None of the things said in this game are proven unrefutably (hopefully, that's a word). You could be lying, IB could be lying, and so on and so forth, but given that these are the conditions of the game (a very long way anyway), I say that I know I'm town since no one seems to have fiddled with me.

Is your point that - hypothetically - the troublemaker could have switched me and then lied about it? What would the troublemaker gain from that?

FP'ed by Falko who thinks I'm listing the possibilities rather than what people have claimed

@Falko, I was listing what people have said they were. Not what is the necessary truth. Are you trying to misrepresent me? Explain to me why the scenario where you were the werewolf and now is the tanner and BuJ vice versa doesn't make sense. Slowly, though, because if the above is your explanation, I don't understand.

[dakky21]

I would vote mitch for lying

In a normal game I would agree, but here since we have a Tanner, lying and then telling about lying is a great way to get lynched, especially if that is your winning condition. So if mitch is a Tanner, I'd rather still go for you than for him.

[Ragian]

Why would mitch be the Tanner when Marashu has corroborated Mitch's story? Then, Marashu would be the Tanner - in which case Mitch would tell us.

[madmitch]

must hear from Mars again,got to know his thoughts about everything now

[BuJaber]

I still need to figure out the mitch/marashu thing because we don't a mislynch. Mitch.. how about you tell us who the werewolves were?

Ragian: IF doomyoshi swapped us me and falko would not know what our new cards are. We do not get told that we got switched, and we do not know what out new cards are. We can only guess based on what has been discussed. Also I know what I started with, but falko STILL hasn't said that we were something like werewolf so that you guys would lynch me. The only thing that makes sense is that you are the one who isn't the villager.

I can't explain all the claims/lies because my theory involves a lot of risky claims. But I tried to question all my assumptions and came up with this new theory. I think IB was solo werewolf, he saw inso in the middle so it was a safe claim; not sure how he was sure he didn't get switched but he took a shot, he can always later claim he was werewolf if somebody said that they switched him. I think dakky is the minion and he just got lucky that nobody is seer. He knows that if someone counter claims, he would be a good target to lynch, and therefore he would die as minion. So lying there to protect IB is a win-win.
I think Ragian was witch, but he saw a werewolf in the middle and he took it. He doesn't know who his ally is, but he knows he needs to stay alive. I don't really know why he didn't out mitch as a liar, maybe because he thought that mitch was lying because he's the other werewolf, and so he didn't want to accidentally out his ally. If I were witch I'd have probably given the werewolf to someone else so I'd know who to shoot, but because of the possibility of switches you can't be 100% sure anyway. Maybe he just wanted to play as werewolf.
Falko and I were villager and got switched so we're still villagers. Yoshi is troublemaker and switched us.
Mitch was tanner, and marashu robbed him, so marashu wanted to be caught lying.

That's all of us. What do you think?
Mitch if you were minion earlier you have to tell us who the werewolves are.. but you can confirm that you were tanner if this new theory is correct.

[madmitch]

@ BuJaber If I tell who the werewolves were and I didn't get switched I would be getting my mates killed, but if I am the robber now and town I must tell, what a mess I am in

[Ragian]

Ragian: IF doomyoshi swapped us me and falko would not know what our new cards are. We do not get told that we got switched, and we do not know what out new cards are. We can only guess based on what has been discussed. Also I know what I started with, but falko STILL hasn't said that we were something like werewolf so that you guys would lynch me. The only thing that makes sense is that you are the one who isn't the villager.

Ahh, so there's absolutely no way of knowing if Doom isn't on either of you guys' side, if he never switched you, or know what you guys were as you don't know it. Am I understanding that correctly?

@BuJ, why trade witch for werewolf?

[DoomYoshi]

must hear from Mars again,got to know his thoughts about everything now

I doubt you'll hear from him. What business does an ousted tanner have with town? For that matter, what business does the Minion have?

[Marashu]

must hear from Mars again,got to know his thoughts about everything now

I doubt you'll hear from him. What business does an ousted tanner have with town? For that matter, what business does the Minion have?

Just got home from work - no time to reply this morning. Anyway. I don't know what kind of weird gambit mitch is playing, but what I got from him was indeed witch. Think about it - if I got minion from him, why would I come out and tell the truth about who I robbed? I would never get lynched in that case, and getting lynched is an easy win for minion.

I'm still wondering about a) if Doom told the truth about who was swapped (it's getting close to deadline, so if you did lie, this would be a good time for the reveal), and b) if Doom was ever the troublemaker, since he waited for all other claims before claiming.

[madmitch]

I was minion so Mars you are lying , I was never witch unless someone switched me which I seems very unlikely ,I know the trouble maker didn't do it so you are now minion Mars and I must be town.

[Marashu]

Well, the good side to your bluff is that it basically makes us unlynchable, because it pretty much confirms that town loses if we get lynched. So instead of a pool of 8 players who can be scum, it narrows it down to a pool of 6 (who are both hiding among the villagers). If Doom was telling the truth, and since neither BuJ or Falko claimed otherwise, they must both be scum. Which one do we lynch, though? (If Doom is scum, and switched his partner with a villager, then the partner werewolf has no reason to come out of hiding, because they know that there is no troublemaker)

[BuJaber]

Okay let's ignore what marashu said be he has been lying from the start. Go back and read his posts. First he says he took the witch from mitch. BUT mitch said he took villager from the middle. So if mitch was telling the truth then marashu would have taken villager NOT witch. The he keeps saying all this stuff about how he believes mitch etc, when he should know for sure whether he is lying or not. Finally mitch claims he was minion.

Now either marashu stole minion from mitch. Or marashu was minion from the start. (God knows what mitch is in this scenario). Or marashu was werewolf/tanner from the start.

He is right that we probably can't lynch either of them. But we can safely ignore everything that comes from him now. We know 100% that he is not town.

Nobody else claimed robber. So that means either robber is now with mitch, or robber was always in the middle.

Mitch doesn't know for sure who he is. And because of that we can't trust him either. Sadly we can't use him to out the werewolves.

I think we need to figure out who's lying between me, ragian, and falko. Because that will give us the next piece of the puzzle.

I will say this though. Marashu is not playing like tanner.

hmm maybe .. Yoshi.. who did you really switch. Your lie is not yielding any results, so it's time for the truth please this time? please. we really need this to out some people. Give us the real switch. Do it. Please.

[Ragian]

I need to understand why Mitch can't out the werewolves. Surely, if he started out as the minion, he knows who they are? Or at least who they were.

[madmitch]

I finally figured this out,Mars was and is tanner he only said he switched with me after I made that cackling remark.I am or was the minion ,I was going to fake claim witch but you all seen what happened. I am ready to vote now.

[Falkomagno]

for who are you voting Doom?

[Falkomagno]

The same way that you know that you're the seer. It's the term "know" that I'm probably using slightly casually. None of the things said in this game are proven unrefutably (hopefully, that's a word). You could be lying, IB could be lying, and so on and so forth, but given that these are the conditions of the game (a very long way anyway), I say that I know I'm town since no one seems to have fiddled with me.

Is your point that - hypothetically - the troublemaker could have switched me and then lied about it? What would the troublemaker gain from that?

FP'ed by Falko who thinks I'm listing the possibilities rather than what people have claimed

@Falko, I was listing what people have said they were. Not what is the necessary truth. Are you trying to misrepresent me? Explain to me why the scenario where you were the werewolf and now is the tanner and BuJ vice versa doesn't make sense. Slowly, though, because if the above is your explanation, I don't understand.

It doesn make sense because if I was switched, I would not know...you are implying that I started as werewolf and when swtiched for tanner i am attracting votes to get me lych, but that doesnt make sense, as I dont have any way to know

[Ragian]

So, you started out as a werewolf and never knew you were switched with the tanner. (In my hypothetical scenario.) You're not explaining away the scenario, merely saying that your tactics apply to your scum M.O.D. rather than jester M.O.D.

[Ragian]

I finally figured this out,Mars was and is tanner he only said he switched with me after I made that cackling remark.I am or was the minion ,I was going to fake claim witch but you all seen what happened. I am ready to vote now.

So there's no way you're telling us who is/are the werewolf/wolves, then?