Once Upon A Killer Mafia (14/17) A Writers Block:Endgame

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strike wolf
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by strike wolf »

Look up in the sky
Its a cop, its a watcher
No it is storrzerg!

Sorry couldnt resist. For what it is worth. I did not visit Mtam.

I am with Storr and Zivel here. As much as my initial reaction was to want to bang my head against the desk, I want to see where this leads.
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aage
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by aage »

Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by aage »

Also Ultra, same to you as @ HotShot in the post above.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by StorrZerg »

aage wrote:Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
confirm it was you
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Zivel
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by Zivel »

aage wrote:Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
WTF is this?
Hey Storr I am one of your scum buddies and I am willing to help you out with your claim if you think I am a suitable candidate but if not then I give you way out of that as well.
Bloody dodgy.
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aage
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by aage »

Zivel wrote:
aage wrote:Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
WTF is this?
Hey Storr I am one of your scum buddies and I am willing to help you out with your claim if you think I am a suitable candidate but if not then I give you way out of that as well.
Bloody dodgy.
No.


I believe I got the wackiest role of all time from the mod since he won't tell me what my night action does. I am supposed to send in a number and a name, and *something* will happen.
I just sent a pm to the mod asking whether it counts as a visitation, since I have no clue what it does.
If someone else visited Mtam, please say so, since it would out Storr as a liar.

What I know is that my action probably doesn't involve healing of any kind, so that means HotShot at least is not a killer. I will echo Ultra in that you should unvote.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by StorrZerg »

aage wrote:
Zivel wrote:
aage wrote:Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
WTF is this?
Hey Storr I am one of your scum buddies and I am willing to help you out with your claim if you think I am a suitable candidate but if not then I give you way out of that as well.
Bloody dodgy.
No.


I believe I got the wackiest role of all time from the mod since he won't tell me what my night action does. I am supposed to send in a number and a name, and *something* will happen.
I just sent a pm to the mod asking whether it counts as a visitation, since I have no clue what it does.
If someone else visited Mtam, please say so, since it would out Storr as a liar.

What I know is that my action probably doesn't involve healing of any kind, so that means HotShot at least is not a killer. I will echo Ultra in that you should unvote.

I'm fine with this, since any other claim would be a lie. I'd happily argue that persons lynch.

That was the other thing i was looking for. Seeing if you could prove if hotshot lied, If you had a saving role. Since, if you "could have saved mtamb" then it makes hotshot look worse for his claim.

Deal with hotshot regarding his role, it isn't 100% town or mafia imo. Sure the role itself can be proved, and likelihood it is proved at this point. I still see some scum motivation for "blocking" mtamburini. I can also see that maybe hotshot was onto something with his reasoning to "block/save" mtamburini since he figured he was the lover of dd5.

I'm still unsure regarding his alignment.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by rishaed »

Vote Count:

Hotshot53 (5) - mtamburini, Storrzerg, ArmyofGod, Crasp, Anamainiacks
Storrzerg (4) - Hotshot53, Pancakemix, Ultrasplot, Strikewolf

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch. Deadline is the 21st. As of now Hotshot would be lynched.
aage wrote: Maybe you're right, but since we receive no handlebars from the mod I think we should get some ourselves.
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HotShot53
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by HotShot53 »

aage wrote:
Zivel wrote:
aage wrote:Hmm HotShot don't get on the fence because Storr is running down his role-related leads. Two can play at that game. I may have visited Mtam. Storr, could you confirm or deny that I was the second person to visit?
WTF is this?
Hey Storr I am one of your scum buddies and I am willing to help you out with your claim if you think I am a suitable candidate but if not then I give you way out of that as well.
Bloody dodgy.
No.


I believe I got the wackiest role of all time from the mod since he won't tell me what my night action does. I am supposed to send in a number and a name, and *something* will happen.
I just sent a pm to the mod asking whether it counts as a visitation, since I have no clue what it does.
If someone else visited Mtam, please say so, since it would out Storr as a liar.

What I know is that my action probably doesn't involve healing of any kind, so that means HotShot at least is not a killer. I will echo Ultra in that you should unvote.
Well, now that is an interesting claim... something that's not really provable, can't really be counterclaimed... i.e. a potential perfect fake claim. Or it of course could be some weird thing rishead came up with. I will be going back and looking at aage in more depth now...

So for storr, either aage is his scum buddy coming out to protect him, or storr took a wild guess that at least 2 people visited mtam and guessed right, or else he is as he says he is, and is a watcher. Since I've never heard of a scum watcher before (any more than a scum jailkeeper), I will unvote

I'm about to start a game of Madden with my friend now, so I'll be back in an hour or two with a more in-depth look at aage
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by StorrZerg »

scum watcher isn't out of the question, it was in breaking bad game
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by strike wolf »

Scum watchers do exist (I am not sure what the exact ratio of scum/town watcher is. It's a semi-common scum role but more common as town) and under the right conditions can be very useful in showing whom among town might be a doctor/cop/other power role and Storr could be one and/or Aage could be lying, hell Storr could have taken a wild stab at the 50/50 shot that Aage gave him and guessed correctly. That said, if Storr is a scum watcher, I don't know why he would choose to watch Mtam, I have tended to lean town with Aage most of the game (though admittedly not as strongly as I was early on) and the third is pretty much unprovable unless a third person came forward and confessed to visiting Mtam without Streaker counter claiming.

Now I do want to finish rebutting Storr's case against me but I also want to look into a few people. I'll have time to get to at least one tonight.
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mtamburini
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by mtamburini »

StorrZerg wrote:hmm i'm probably a liar... (but everyone all ready knows that)

But its now time for zivel question!

Hey zivel, your buddy/ lover what not.

Did that person "visit" mtamburini. cause if thats the case, its probably best for you to take the lead on that, so that person can stay under the radar. If not, then ill wait to see what that person does if they do anything.

Yep thats right, i saw 2 people visit tambo. hotshot obviously, and a larger reason as to why i pressured him to start.

Now i'm still undecided as to your claim hotshot. Since, the watcher information matches with what i gathered. I was hoping to catch you in a lie if you happened to be scum. Now this doesn't clear you, but it does ensure that the right information was presented. I'm still pending the 2 town reads between the 4 i named earlier, if you forgot i'd be happy to look them up (*i think they are pcm/strike/aage/streaker). I'm a little concerned with how much information you did happen to gather, since how stonewalled i was when inquiring information regarding mechanics and how roles work.

So this "unamed person" that visited mtamb. I'm sure this person knows how i feel about them, so i'm purposly going to keep it vague. (this is also why i'm asking zivel since i don't need to be going down or up any rabbit holes pending his response) I also think it might be good if they hinted at some indication on if they believed what you said. Since i know they visited.
2 people visited me? Nice nice.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by mtamburini »

StorrZerg wrote:@ultra, you are literally the worst confirmed person i've ever played with.
What happens if counter measures are in this game to prevent mass claiming? Did you ever think of that? Nope.

The idea that you think i don't have a "Fake claim" ready if i am mafia is super laughable. So stop judging this "refusal of claiming" as inherently scummy, since its not. I volunteered this information not because i was pressured, but because i was trying to trap hotshot.

I'm not ignoring you. I'm not giving into your silly demand of a claim, with out reading into the situation at hand and judging it.

you are not judging my actions regarding how i pressured hotshot as scummy.

You are judging the refusal of the claim as scummy.

Since its the latter, im going to continue to say, your persistence of my claim is stupid.
How is ultra confirmed did I miss something?
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by mtamburini »

StorrZerg wrote:So, how bout them town reads hotshot

@tambo, get in here and tell ultra he is an idiot for pushing me kthx.
What he said, but you should full claim bro
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by strike wolf »

Mtam can you check with the mod if your revival ability would override a kill attempt?
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by StorrZerg »

clift notes for tambo

ultra is confirmed with 2 vig shots that he must use tonight.
i did a bunch of fake claim and pushing on hotshot and tried to set him up in a trap if he lied.
nothing apparent on the lie end.
hotshot claimed to jail keeper you last night
i watched you
i saw him and aage
aage admitted to being at your place in the night, he has "no idea" what his power is.

And i'm not finishing my claim, since there isn't a point since its proved through 3 people now.

Other notes, im currently pushing strike wolf as scum. You should look into him, and reevaluate.
whatsausage has been inactive.
tfo has been inactive
Anamainiacks has been inactive.


ultra is utterly insane, but its ok. still confirmed.
streaker claimed something similar to hotshot. (roleblocker possibly...)
Did not claim who he blocked.
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StorrZerg
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by StorrZerg »

So in some what serious note. Not sure what to be doing right now.
strike wolf is pending, till people talk about him. really nothing more to talk about...
I know aage said he would get around to it, but thats just one person.

i'll probably look at whatsausage. haven't really paid much attention to him this game.

Like updated reads on current affairs and where people stand right now. In particularly I'd like their views on top 2 lynches for today and briefly why (or in depth idc, just want details)
I've seen plenty of people stopping in, so things have settled down, i so i wait for the reads

the person streaker blocked could be a lead.... idk
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by Army of GOD »

aage wrote: If someone else visited Mtam, please say so, since it would out Storr as a liar.
I was thinking about this but then I realized that (if I'm remembering correctly) Storr came out and said two people visited mtam last night when only one was confirmed (Hotshot). If he was lying, how would he know it wasnt just Hotshot? Its either a really ballsy move or someone else visited mtam and got blocked or bussed or something.
mrswdk is a ho
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by Army of GOD »

Also,as per Storr's case on strike...just no. Ive liked strike's posts from a town POV so far and honestly while I liked Storr's aggression on Hotshot originally now he's kind of looking like he's just trying to attack everyone. I had him slightly town before but now I'm pegging him down to neutral. I'm not sure what to make of everything he's been trying to do.
mrswdk is a ho
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by UltrasPlot »

Have to agree with AoG here. I think Storr is pinning scum on whoever disagrees with him...we should keep an eye on this. I'm tired right now, but I'll look into it tomorrow and see if I can come up with any leads...

(Not unlynching yet...)
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by mtamburini »

UltrasPlot wrote:Have to agree with AoG here. I think Storr is pinning scum on whoever disagrees with him...we should keep an eye on this. I'm tired right now, but I'll look into it tomorrow and see if I can come up with any leads...

(Not unlynching yet...)
Storrs town, lets RNG this next lynch i think tis better then some of the reads taht have been given out.
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mtamburini
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by mtamburini »

oh and unvote HOTSHOT, I believe his claim for now.

I think if he continues to JAIL ME it might be best cause I might start giving a shit now that there is some action going on. Up to you hotshot personally dont care.


Ill try and make a lynch list tomorrow.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by Streaker »

Interesting how Aage is playing. Several times already he's taking heat away from Storr, protecting him. The past times could be credited to a town read, but his blatant protection clame is too much.
What were you hoping to achieve with that claim, Aage?

Especially the 'I'm sure i'm not a healer, I think' was weird at least.

The fact that Storr is first gathering information about whom did what, and THEN starting to claim in bits and parts about what his power is, is just super scummy.

The biggest issue right now is Storr refusing to claim. It's a stretch to think an assassin-like role in the game, at this point it would do you (and especially town) more good then bad to claim.


What I don't like is the manner of Ultra's pushing him to claim. I'd lynch Ultra right here and now all over again for his power rush. Seriously dude, you are basicly the only confirmed town, ACT LIKE ONE.
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Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by HotShot53 »

Ok, I am going to go through aage's posts from the beginning and quote/comment on anything that looks potentially town or scummy. Going to be really long I assume, so will put it in spoiler tags.
Spoiler
aage wrote:
UltrasPlot wrote:No Lynch

Why don't we wait for tomorrow's cop report, ffs... no point randlynching now
Yeah, this is weird. Tell us about your awesome night action that you're so eager to use.
Slight role fishing? Or could just be joking.
aage wrote:I was gonna post hours ago, but I got distracted and the editor tossed out all my post by logging out, and now Animainiacks has pretty much said everything I wanted to. So add town read on him.


I was gonna say Crasp's reads on Ultra were good, I agree that his post on no lynch is "too scummy" or at least so unbelievably stupid that I actually do not believe it, although I do think that right now he is our best final lynch target.
I was gonna say Nark doesn't seem to feel like talking since he avoids all requests for replies with evading replies about the uselessness of day 1, which is scummy.

I was also gonna explain in great detail why lynching D1 is a huge statistical advantage, and that AoG is relying on his intuition too much. Lynching day 1 provides town with an opportunity to lynch scum, an opportunity they don't get during the night. Tossing away any chance of killing scum is statistically disadvantageous. Secondly, the lynch is secondary on D1, the discussion is far more important and a good analyst will be able to use it to town's advantage. Thirdly, relying on power roles to win the game for town means you assume the game is rigged wit a large advantage for town. It's not.

I think that was it.
Makes town-sounding arguments for lynching day 1. Although it could just be saying the obvious, since a no-lynch was never going to happen anyway.
aage wrote:Long post, sorry.
Anarkistsdream wrote:I think it is a huge mistake to vote someone merely because they were online and read the thread... Maybe he was on a smartphone, which sucks to type on... Maybe he ran out of time. Admittedly, Virus is usually a more active player- i.e., in the past- but there are lots of times I have seen people keep up with the game and yet not post... Storr, what I see is you literally attacking each and every person you can and wait for what the response is... That makes you look scummy, because it makes it look like you are just trying to start bandwagon after bandwagon. If you were truly firm in the beliefs you held, you would not be so quick to give them up...

VOte: Storr
Strange pattern. Storr votes you, you're fine with it. Storr removes the vote, and only then you 'return fire'.
This is a stupid vote, lynching Storr right now would give us the least amount of information imo. Besides, this wagon-changing behaviour is actually pretty much what I expected from him on D1, and he has lived up to that the entire game, switching between suspicion and reads on nearly every player in the game. He doesn't even lead the bandwagons; his only previous vote was on you. And for that, you want to lynch him? Or is this vote just a statement?
Secondly, on bandwagons. The more the merrier. I'd be very happy to know who would be willing to wagon on any player. Lists of players who are down to pressure or lynch others early and/or late provides very useful alignment indicative information. It also doesn't matter if we steer away from any number of wagons before the day is over, because this game basically uses plurality lynch rules:
rishaed wrote:2. Voting, Lynching, and Ending the Day
a. All votes and unvotes must be in color and I would really prefer bold. If they are not, they will not be tallied.
b. You are not required to unvote before placing a new vote.
c. Lynching requires a majority of the town vote, once the majority has been reached any unvotes will not be counted. The majority is half the player's alive +1.
d. You may vote ‘no lynch’ to end the day without a death.
e. Without a Majority I will enforce a Lynch.
So that argument is bull. I will FoS.

For the record, and this doesn't apply to Nark alone, I really believe people are being a bit too liberal with their lynching vote. Applying pressure can be done easily without voting, as per Storr's entire activity log this day.

mtamburini wrote:
strike wolf wrote:unvote forgot my vote was still on Nark. As far as Fake Claims, I tend to believe that town has the right to know if they are being used.
Call me crazy but what good does that do for us let alone scumhunt right now? Seen a couple other posts about this and Im not really getting the point of it.

Virus being AFK doesnt mean anything yet hopefully hell be replaced. Never seen him mis a game start before and hes usually an easy read so I hope he comes back.

Anyone around right now to talk about shit? I dont feel like reading through the massive texts of walls some of you are putting up like are you guys robots are something?
I agree with the sentiment on fake claims, it won't change day 1, all information is welcome but the mod refuses so end of story. Pushing the mod for it after he deliberately dodged the question is weird though, like you're trying to prove you're trying to help the town without running the risk of actually helping the town. So Strike and pcm, slightly scummy behaviour.


Virus post
virus90 wrote:well im there, dont you worry.
kind of disturbing that mtam thinks im an easy read, makes me doubt if im really that bad a player...
also i disagree with the logic of: "he is online --> so he has definatly read everything and is supposed to write a message" sometimes reading 3 pages and responding is not alligned with the time frame you have in mind at that moment for the game, but maybe thats just me. (also that is exactly the point why i removed that ability in whatsapp, cause people say your online so why dont you respond... so i might decide to do the same here soon, im pretty sure its a tactical adventage for mafia to disable that ability)
and besides i hate day 1, and im usually highly inactive day 1. last game proved why thats better for me (i got caught being scum that game while being active), so i generally dont comment to much day 1 since i am a bit to straight forward for some people and i always get some votes on me for speaking out what i think (or being enthousiastic ;) )

anyway about this game,
Ultra is pointing on a no lynch for arguments i think are valid, although i dont agree. so basicly i dont want to vote ultra.
also i disagree with hotshot reasoning of the day 1 mislynch --> does it provide information about the mafia? in my opinion, it is not that hard for mafia to split votes among several people day 1, generally day 1 a town majority decides to lynch someone, even if they target a mafia player generaly some of the mafia are on that wagon aswell, just to gain town creds, and later be able to say that they lynched that person SO they are town. so in my opinion it is possible that day 1 voting patterns give information, but it is also easily rigged.
Being an easy read doesn't make you a bad player, it's actually very useful if you're town.
I suggest you do switch on ghost mode, I've had it on for as long as I can remember for this exact reason. Being online or not doesn't correlate to alignment imo, and I excuse the votes of Storr and Crasp because I believe they were cast to pressure you into posting.
Day 1 wagons are usually riddled with mafia, I recall a huge game quite some time ago in which Town had a one-shot role that could tell how many mafia were on a lynch. The player used it on the first day and caught 6 of the 8 mafia on the D1 wagon. Ever since that game, I firmly believe D1 lynches are important to town because mafia usually carelessly jump on them. The mafia coordinating a voting pattern on day 1 is rare.
If the D1 lynch is not a mislynch, it doesn't really matter who were on the wagon because you successfully lynched a mafia. Analysis from that wagon is just a bonus.


I don't know why we are still debating whether no lynch is better or worse than D1 lynch, a clear majority of the players seems in favour so Ultra and AoG might as well drop it, it does town no good to debate it further.

On Storr.
I currently have a town read on him due to his constant pursuit of discussion. However, apparently that's part of his general strategy, so I should cancel that out. All I know is that I am slightly less suspicious of the people going after him. If he is mafia, throwing him under the bus would be bad for his teammates because he seems capable of steering a lynch. If he is town, I don't think mafia would actively pick a fight with the most active towny only to have that backfire on them when he flips town. So I am less suspicious of most people going after Storr individually. (That means: people using original material to attack him, rather than people who endorse the pushes others make against him.)
Long post with a lot of info in it seemingly... although he contradicts himself some between the beginning and the end. Defends storr, but then says storr is neutral... FOS's nark for voting storr, but then at the end says he is less suspicious of people pushing storr since scum wouldn't be that dumb to push the most active player.
Mentions that scum like to bandwagon day 1, and it's possible to pressure without voting... I don't remember if aage voted day 1, or who he voted on, will find out as I re-read I guess. If he avoided all wagons, could be scum trying to avoid being pressured for bandwagonning.
He brought up the plurarity lynch here, the first person to do so. Could be town to remind people it's not just majority lynch, or scum trying to sound town by bringing up game mechanics.
aage wrote: In-post reply:
Anarkistsdream wrote:So, this really irks me... I bother to write a very good post, putting ideas out there and so forth. And the only thing I get in return is Mtam and Storr arguing the most rudimentary and ignorant rhetorical and semantic words, leaving all ofthe substance I placed in that post out so that they can bandy a few words and lead us down the path of nowhere... Great job, guys, way to totally miss the point.
You mean this post? It doesn't discuss the game at all, nor put forward relevant ideas. You talk about game mechanics, pro-town plays you don't really enjoy and flavour, which the mod forbids us to talk about.

Once Upon a Killer Mafia... Not Killers... Are we not jumping the gun just a bit to NOT surmise that only one killer exists, and the rest of us are trying to find him? A few cops, maybe a doc, a couple of Trackers, maybe... Just enough to really gum up the works when that ONE killer goes around and starts taking us down. We see that Player X was killed, but three different players saw Two or Three different players visit him...
More speculation that is irrelevant on D1. First off, if you're going to speculate on the roles, read the opening post: "I've tried to make this game as balanced as possible, but expect crazy things to go on." That defeats your entire speculation (also, second time I quoted the opening post to you, maybe you should read it). Secondly, there is no point discussing the actions for N1 before it has passed. Thirdly, you didn't mention any of this in your previous post so I don't see the point of saying "way to totally miss the point" when you never made the point.

See, Storr, you may claim I was "rolefishing," but that was the point of my last post... You know, the one you blatantly ignored so you could continue arguing semantics and looking immature. But, as no one will look past the obvious, here, I am forced to post a bit more bluntly... (But look how clever you are... :roll: )
Actually, I was the guy claiming you were rolefishing, skim much.

This is also why your attacking each and every player could very well end up as a waste of our time and effort... And your FORCING the No Lynch by trying to create some sort of stigma around it is also ridiculous...
Explain what you mean with forcing the no lynch. Storr hasn't advocated no lynch once.

Maybe we have TWO killers... Maybe a paranoid gun owner and a Serial Killer... But the point is we DO have a serial killer... And they don't have to work together.
/speculation, see above.
Brings up a lot of good points against nark. Never votes or presses the case further though... which is a little odd.
aage wrote:
Streaker wrote:Those aren't cases he's pushing. He's franticly trying not to get lynched.
Exactly. I noticed that at one point, he said something like "hey, everyone voting for me isn't posting". I think the reason he's throwing around these OMGUS is because he feels he's still being pressured to the point of getting lynched, mainly by Zivel, but me and you (Streaker) also admitted preferring a lynch on Ultra today. Despite that, the lynching pressure on him has decreased. He's very passive-aggressive, especially the last few pages.
Explanation within 24 hours or lynch. I mean it.
(Threatening some inactive with a lynch)
Followed by:
UltrasPlot wrote:As for why DD:
*reasons*

Also remember that I get lynched (and js we lose another if I get lynched... one with an important role...) if I have the most votes by deadline, since plurality seems to apply.
(Attempt to pull other people on his wagon, reminder that it's important that someone else has more votes than him or he is lynched)
Followed by:
UltrasPlot wrote:FYI: Town loses more than a vote if I die.
(This is a blatant threat to town, 'i'm a power role so don't lynch me')

Now I take his soft claim seriously to some extent, and I don't like pressuring a power role into claiming... but he didn't need to claim at all. The pressure was decreasing.
Vote-wise, thinks look positive; Animainiacks unvoted between the second and the third post above - that is, the Ultra wagon went down a vote. Discussion-wise, nobody accused him significantly between those two posts: I made a remark concerning his case on Dd, but that was maybe 10% of my post. Animainiacks finished his contribution with "you still could be scum", but he did remove his vote from Ultra. Somehow that still made him softclaim.
Secondly, softclaiming a power role is not logical. Let's pull out that good old opening post again:
rishaed wrote:Hey all! Its been awhile and I'm hosting another Non-Vanilla Game.
If you're going to claim a power role, be specific. Everyone knows (or should know...) that all townies are special. Every role in this game entails more than a vote, soft claiming doesn't do anything. So why would Ultra soft claim a power role when the pressure on him has lessened while this is an NV game?


I think it's a big mistake to let him off the hook after this. When he initially voted for no lynch, I replied by saying "Tell us about your awesome night action that you're so eager to use." I'd still like him to tell us, more than ever, so I'll Vote Ultra.


Zivel, why didn't you catch this? And would you consider replacing your vote?
Made some good points about ultra. His first vote of the day, is the third vote on ultra at the time, putting him back in the lead. (I and other had already moved off of ultra by then) Now that we assume ultra is town, I guess this is all more neutral than town.
aage wrote:
Army of GOD wrote:I think it makes sense. Scum could easily use the "he voted no lynch D1!!!one!!!" excuse to throw a vote on him (or me, since I did the same thing).

I don't know if I'd go further than a FOS, but the vote makes sense.
I'm criticising the reason, not the vote.
Whatsausage wrote:
UltrasPlot wrote:FYI: Town loses more than a vote if I die.
Not sure if softclaim just meaning non-vanilla or more specific to multiple votes.
As I said in my previous post, it's an NV game. I don't see the value of this comment, it just seems to be laying a foundation for Ultra to get off the block. Is your town read of him so strong?
This post adds up to the red flag I discussed earlier concerning Whatsausage and Ultra.
StorrZerg wrote:
aage wrote:Double post

By the way, don't take my posts too personal, upon rereading I see I'm being a bit cold. I'm here to have fun with the game, and I don't want to ruin yours.
You are doing fine, no one calling you an asshole yet, so you know you haven't over stepped. i've been liking your recent posting. Interested to see who you push. While i can agree with a lot of what you are saying, i'm just not sure where you think mafia are.
I've been pushing people. Since you ask, I'm currently suspicious of Ultra, Whatsausage and Nark, and slightly suspicious of virus but not enough to warrant extra attention. Dd should probably just be MK'd or replaced as things look, if he does continue playing but keeps the same level of activity I wouldn't mind lynching him. I would have favoured a Nark lynch if Ultra hadn't softclaimed in the way he did and maybe I still do, depending on his full claim.
Unfortunately these are all 'easy' targets, so I'll discuss the list for you.

1.Hotshot53 - safe vote on virus, don't really know what to think. He is very unspecific in his posts ("some of the things [Nark] said in his posts definitely gave me a scum vibe, but other things he said sounded more towny" --> what things?) which I don't like.
2.Pancakemix - I get an irritated vibe off his remarks. His advocating the devil is town play to me - I have done so countless times in the past, it's a lawyer-y strategy of 'innocent until proven guilty'. It actually encourages discussion since it encourages more people to get involved, so that marks him more as town for me.
3.mtamburini - no clue, man. He posts in spikes of activity and sometimes I feel he doesn't share all his thoughts.
4.Streaker - used to be laying low, but I agree with his analysis on Ultra's behaviour so leaning town.
5.Virus90 - I just want him to post more (and make actual contributions in those posts)
7.Storrzerg - discussed earlier, I do not favour lynching him and I don't believe pressuring him now will move town forward, so neutral.
8.Ultrasplot - main suspect
9.Zivel - leaning town
10.Whatsausage - leaning scum, subtly buddying up to Ultra (the problem is, I don't think Ultra's flip would change that regardless of what he flips)
11.Army of God - I believe he believes his play is town.
12.Anamainiacks - liked his larger posts. Leaning town.
13.Crasp - town read as discussed earlier
14.dd515187 - I just want him to post more
15.Anarkistsdream - leaning scum
16.Strikewolf - neutral; I'm not trusting my read on him since he pinpointed me as his strong town read, which is bound to bias me.
17.Crazymilkshake5 - I just want him to post more
StorrZerg wrote:@UltrasPlot if i claimed VT would i be a decent lynch for today?
Yes. There are no VTs.
The first one to give a list of reads I think. Even less detailed than my list for the most part lol. Which is actually pretty funny, since he thought my list with more detail was scummy because it didn't have enough detail in it... caused a few extra people to vote me because of that. Pretty hypocritical actually. At the time he posted it, I pretty much agreed with most of his reads though.
aage wrote:Three lover pair madness has ensued. Great.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0kp-FjpdGA

First off, let me say that it would make abolutely no sense game-wise to make all lover pairs town, so this is definitely a big lead.
UltrasPlot wrote:also FoS Virus, feel like he's trying to set me up for something =/
Ultra, please explain this post. He's supposed to be your lover, why are you making a random accusation?


So based off the info we got from Zivel, Dd and Virus, there is a clear difference between the lover connection Zivel and Dd claim to have (not with each other tho) and the lover connection Virus and Ultra claim to have. Since Zivel and Dd claim to be paired with yet more lovers, I'm inclined to go with the least amount of potential liars, i.e. Virus and Ultra.

It means Ultra is not only the most scummy candidate but also the safest lynch, since apparently Virus won't die if Ultra is lynched. We can always just lynch Virus tomorrow if he somehow survives when Ultra flips scum, which by now I'm quite sure he will.

Unless Virus and/or Zivel claims a 'primary' power in addition to being lover, they are the prime candidates for today's lynch. If they turn up town, Zivel AND Dd must be lying, but I doubt they are. Trading a lover pair for outing two mafia on day 1 is just silly.


FP by Ultra and Storr
Virus can save you from a lynch and you have no powers?
Fine, we'll lynch Virus. Not really interested in seeing a potential scum get unlynched if that proves nothing about your alignment. Because it doesn't.
Unvote, vote virus
Switched his vote to virus after the 3 lover pairs were revealed and virus outed himself. I disagreed with this play from a town perspective, as I'm sure you all know by now from my discussions with storr.

aage wrote:
UltrasPlot wrote:aage your vote is still on virus
Get a hold of the full picture here, mate.

Problem #1
You claim to have absolutely no powers other than being a lover. All other lovers so far have an additional power. You are talking to your lover during daytime. Dd can only talk at night. That makes you the most scummy lover of them all.

Problem #2
Being the most scummy lover, I would like to have you die to the lynch tonight, but you claim that won't happen. Lynching Virus will get you co-lynched.

Problem #3
Virus apparently bites a bullet for you if you ever die (in whatever fashion? Does he protect you from night actions too?), however Virus said
im pretty sure we dont both die if we (referrring to me OR ultra) gets killed.
which suggests it works both ways. Therefore you shouldn't have to be afraid, unless your lover is lying in which case I'd very much like to lynch him.

Problem #4
i kind of think the other lovers can confirm this
I kind of think it's a weird ass mechanic that I've never seen before. I've heard of Strong Lovers, but this works the other way around. If Zivel had a non-standard Lover role, I think he would have mentioned it. Dd firmly denies having this.

Problem #5
You're very willing to let your mod-confirmed townie die just so that you can prove yourself.

The only counter-problem is that we lose two scummy townies with no powers if you speak truthfully.

Sigh. I really believe you're both lying about your role... but I guess I'll go ahead and follow the pro-towny plan rather than the anti-mafia plan.
unvote
Not revoting to avoid quickhammer, seeing as Ultra voted himself....
After telling ultra he doesn't believe him at all, he then does the "pro-towny" plan and unvotes virus. I read this as a town move, because that's what I would have recommended doing. But could be a scum move also knowing that it would look bad to be on the bandwagon of a town lover, since at that point it looked like that ultra would be lynched instead of virus anyway.
aage wrote:I will sheep... vote DD5.

Several reasons.

A. When you think someone is scummy, that is the best time to listen to him/her. Having a bias based on a hunch is never going to find you scum, unless you have epic hunches (like a cop result, that would be a good time to not listen).
B. I also have a manga name, that makes three of us. I hope this stays within the rules about not discussing flavor.
C. He blindly sheeps Storrs opinion for some reason. I see no reason to assume why he is town. Blind sheeping is scummy, only mafia know who is town... unless Storr is your lover? But from his attitude I doubt that.


I also have a tin foil theory concerning the lovers but I'll share that on D2, I hate posting on my phone... placing tags is so painful.
Admits sheeping a vote, then says dd is scummy for sheeping storr? Kind of a weird hypocrisy, I took his sheeping comment as a joke since I don't think scum would say they are sheeping. This was the third vote on dd... joining another bandwagon, on another claimed lover?
aage wrote:
strike wolf wrote:Mostly posting as i read up. I will try to edit the post if information changes but if there are ideas that have been explained after I have posted here, you know why.
StorrZerg wrote:Also i'm still down to relynch AoG.
aage wrote:
StorrZerg wrote:Also i'm still down to relynch AoG.
I share this sentiment, although it's a bit cruel to the player.


Regarding the tin foil hat theory I mentioned yesterday, I suspected at some point during the previous day that all lover couples were scum/town, which is why none of them were getting lynched.


Tamb, can you verify DD's role?
You two like the easy lynch here?

Umm maybe I misunderstood this post but Virus said that lovers should be of the same alignment. He's now been proven town. Wouldn't this kind of put a huge dent in your "Lover couplers were scum/town" theory?
I don't like the easy lynch, but Nark was a suspect yesterday. AoG replacing him hasn't changed that. No vote is out though. I also don't like Storr pointing out lynch candidates without giving real reasons, especially now that HotShot is apparently also an option. Far as I know, everyone is an option. This is not the kind of posts I expected from him.

The tin foil hat theory is tin foil hat because it involves proven townies lying to us due to their not actually being townies. If all of them are town/scum pairs, of course they would claim that they have mod confirmation about their lover's alignment, and of course none of them would argue with that. As I said though, tin foil hat. I doubt it's the case but I said I would share it yesterday.

Mtamb needs to stop whining.
Had a tin foil hat theory about lovers being town/scum pairs, even though all lovers said mod confirmed lovers were all the same orientation. Which would thrown doubt on ultra/the other pairs. A little fishy of a tin foil hat, although I guess anything is possible.
aage wrote:
Zivel wrote:This right here is not helping. SK or mafia, who cares we have to kill them, and all it does is distract town from finding them. We are past the mechanics talk by a day and half. Also I see no reason for an SK to prefer to kill one town than two, and taken into consideration that Virus would have protection is a long shot as he was looking scummy as it was. My assumption is the kill had to be a town Vig, I could be wrong but trying to work out whether it is SK or vig is pointless until we learn more and all this does is give us more bs to read when we have enough as it is, god you love to fill up the pages dont you...
Hmm. It wouldn't make much sense for mafia to kill Ultra, I agree... They knew Virus was town (and I'm gonna assume "they knew Ultra was town") so Virus' shield role was legit as far as they knew. Shooting Ultra would have been the worst choice, better to shoot Virus and let them both die. Although it seems strange, killing ultra is ultimately a pro-town move so I would suspect a vig.

As to why this vig didn't shoot DD, I don't know.

Ultra claiming 2 vig shots is interesting, I believe it means he's town... having them for one night only sucks, especially since it's the second night, since this means you'll have to use them.
Ultra, could you describe how exactly you came about these vig shots? If Mtamb were to revive Virus and he were to save you again, would you gain 2 more? Just curious.

As far as Mtamb being DD's lover, it would make some degree of sense since Virus was also a reviver and lover.
Why the vig didn't shoot DD... probably because he wanted to test the ultra/virus claim, and not the DD claim.

Agrees that it was probably a vig shooting ultra, which I agree with (I think I said it in the first place). Of course, scum would know if that was the case or not.
"Just curious" about if ultra would gain his shots again if virus was resurrected and ultra killed again... not sure why he'd ask that.
aage wrote:
StorrZerg wrote:partial claim

I watched mtamburini last night. I did not see anything,
Did your result pm say something like "nobody visited your target" , or did you get something like "nothing" as result?

If the result pm said "you did not see anything" rather than "anyONE", you could have been blocked but we'll need confirmation from Streaker.

I don't have full knowledge of what the mod would do, but I would consider jailing to be a watchable / trackable action. Especially since HotShot claimed he protects his targets from "harm", rather than making them "immune to night actions" or something.

I really wished you waited with providing this information until AFTER Streaker and HotShot both had claimed who they targeted.

HotShot's heated response doesn't look good on him. Clearly, you're waiting for Streaker to post before you go all-in on "Storr is a liar", which needn't be the case. I doubt Storr would self-sac on HotShot if he were lying, especially with the 2 vig shots from Ultra being in play.
The coincidence of Storr happening to watch HotShot's target is also sketchy, although I'll buy that he would watch Mtamb if he were watcher.
Good diagnosis questions. Throws doubt on both storr and I, although he doesn't seem to actually doubt us.
At this point he didn't know storr would claim to see him also. Could be why he really wanted to know if storr was blocked, to know if he was safe from having been seen or not.
Well, that all took like 1 1/2 hours to put together, I hope people like the more detailed read. After doing this I think I had town-leaned aage mostly because of his early game mechanics posts... now that I've gone into more detail, I'd have to say I don't town read him anymore, I'd have to say he's now neutral, leaning slightly to the scummy side...
To summarize his voting record: 3rd vote on ultra when the pressure seemed to be decreasing... switched to virus after the lover claims... unvoted virus even though saying he didn't believe anything they said... 3rd vote on dd, another claimed lover.
Today's votes: None. Questioned my reads, but hasn't actually made any cases or significant reads.

His role claim can't be proven, can't be counterclaimed, could be easily faked. I would like to see a full claim with a name etc, so I will vote aage (I still would like storr's full claim, but I guess that's not happening, and his role claim I can believe and seems proven for now, can still be tested later if needed)
HotShot53
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2006 8:37 pm

Re: Once Upon A Killer Mafia (15/17) D2: Blood Oath

Post by HotShot53 »

mtamburini wrote:oh and unvote HOTSHOT, I believe his claim for now.

I think if he continues to JAIL ME it might be best cause I might start giving a shit now that there is some action going on. Up to you hotshot personally dont care.


Ill try and make a lynch list tomorrow.
I look forward to your list. As for jailing you, are you still planning to revive virus/whomever is mislynched if there is a mislynch today? Wait for tomorrow/another time? Whatever you do, having a new perspective for the rest of today can't hurt.
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