edocsil wrote:Because you completely and utterly wrecked 2 roles of middling power? So lets say there are 3 scum and a sk and then me and shield. 6 players,9 remain. There is at least a Cop, Doc and one other town power (Vig, joat, who knows) you just dratically increased the chance that we will lose town power, as can no longer serve as a meatshield to absorb night kills.
Alright, I said I was going to explain why this post is both biased and wrong (I might be repeating some of the arguments I've already used, but I want this post to be complete. Besides, it's mostly new things, I reckon).
First reason on why it's wrong: I can't be accused of wrecking Shield's role. He did that all on his own.
Second reason on why it's wrong: the alleged impossibility of being able to serve as meatshield to absorb NKs only arised when Edocsil soft(claimed) that he was only a mason, not anything else. Masons that hold other powers are not a rare sight (from the top of my mind I recall Safari being a mason doctor in Unkown Mafia, but I'm sure I could find more examples).
Third reason on why it's wrong: the meatshield impossibility is, well, bullshit. If people believe Shield+Edocsil's claims, they are downright impervious to lynching. Mafia
DOES NOT want to get to endgame with 2 confirmed townies that simply can't be mislynched.
Think of it this way: traditional endgame with 5 players, 3 town and 2 mafia. Out of 5 living players, mafia has 3 available targets for the game winning mislynch, while there are 2 mafia that could be lynched. Now consider Edocsil and Shield are actually masons and survived to the endgame. Out of 5 living players, Shield and Edocsil will NOT be lynched, giving mafia only 1 available target to force a mislynch, while there are 2 mafia that could be lynched.
I've played as mafia enough to know I don't want to keep confirmed townies alive to endgame. At some point in the game, I'll take a 100% shot of killing a cleared mason (that I CANNOT mislynch) rather than a, say (picking numbers arbitrarily right now), 30% shot of killing an uncleared power role (that I can mislynch) + 70% shot of killing an uncleared vanilla (that I can mislynch).
This is what was wrong about Edocsil' accusation. I'll now explain why it's heavily biased.
We're assuming Edocsil's balance suggestion. 11-3-1. 11 townies are 2 masons, 1 doctor, 1 cop, 1 miscellaneous power role and 6 vanillas.
We're also wrongly going to assume that Edocsil is not the one to blame for saying he is a "vanilla mason" other than a "power role mason".
We're also going to assume that Shield and Edocsil are town, even though they might not be.
Finally, we'll assume, much like Edocsil suggested, that the masons will be left alive for the endgame (which I doubt).
Alright, now to the %s.
After Shield claimed mason, mafia had a 3/11 (27,27%) chance of killing a town power role. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, mafia's odds went from 3/11 (27,27%) to 3/10 (30%).
After Shield claimed mason, SK had a 3/13 (23,07%) chance of killing a town power role. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, SK's odds went from 3/13 (23,07%) to 3/12 (25%).
These are the "drastical" losses I caused if you're willing to assume all those things that aren't really truthful.
Now check the good things.
After Shield claimed mason, mafia had a 1/11 (27,27%) chance of killing the SK. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, mafia's odds went from 1/11 (9,09%) to 1/10 (10%).
After Shield claimed mason, SK had a 3/13 (23,07%) chance of killing mafia. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, SK's odds went from 3/13 (23,07%) to 3/12 (25%).
After Shield claimed mason, doctor had a 1/13 (7,69%) chance of stopping a NK. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, doctor's odds went from 1/13 (7,69%) to 1/12 (8,33%).
After Shield claimed mason, cop had a 3/13 (23,07%) chance of finding mafia. After I asked Shield to name Edocsil, cop's odds went from 3/13 (23,07%) to 3/12 (25%).
The list could really go on and on, but the point here is:
1 - Edocsil's accusation blatantly exaggerated when he mentioned the drastical increase chance of power roles dying.
2 - Edocsil's accusation outright ignored the good things that arised from his outing, such as increased odds of SK and mafia killing each other and the enhanced "productivity" of our power roles.
Finally, after showing why the accusation is both wrong and biased, we must also notice that the accusation outright ignored the biggest good thing that can happen after all of this: the chance of later catching 2 scum for the price of 1 (do not forget that Shield and Edocsil are not cleared yet!).
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