PYP~Mafia [05/21] end game

[HotShot53]

the NRA member topic:
it should have been banned. everyone knew it. its a terrible role which is great for mafia and evn in the hands of town pretty disasterous.
why: because even if its owned by a town person it means that possibly other townies are gonna visit him/her by night and get killed. the odds are just so big.

if its in maffia hands. the owner will not easily be discovered as mafia because anyone visiting him will die. also we probably wont have a clue who is NRA member if maffia because the only way i can think of by knowing who went where is by saying it before hand, which kind of takes away a big part of the tactics... so it should have been gone, seriously...

In my opinion, whoever picked the NRA member should come forward and claim it... while it's possible a town NRA member could kill a mafia visiting him, I'd say the risk is greater that a town PR will visit and get killed. While claiming will make the NRA member more like a commuter (since no-one will dare visit them), I believe it would be the town thing to do.

[strike wolf]

Thieves! Burgling hobbitses. They stoles the precious! Nast mean little hobbitses.

Not sure if vanilla softclaim or nothing...

Also, the mod has been killed, so that means no rules right?

Nasty little Hobbitses thinks too much into things. It was nothing (Yes it was, Smeagol was saying something to the nice little hobbitses), SHut up you!

As far as Charm, I think the case is pretty weak. Though, the little question about the role was odd there. I am not really seeing anyone that sticks out as scum trying to push it but I am just not getting any strong scum vibes from her. Before people started voting Hero and Godfather, Assassin was going to be the third or fourth choice to ban, so acting now like no one was going to pick it, Streaker and others, is kind of post hoc ergo hoc logic.

My main candidate is still Zivel, while I won't argue that my logic is that much stronger than the Charm case, I still don't like his attempts to put attention on the Rock Star, which is a mostly townish role and I don't get his subsequent reasoning for suggesting it:

I am actually going to give you a slight FOS Zivel for this comment. Rock star is a role that wouldn't be nearly as effective in the hands of mafia as it would be in the hands of town. To have suggested it to me means that you either did not think your choice through thoroughly (quite possible which is the only reason this is a slight FOS) or you are scum and looking to get an extra townish role banned.

You rate me too highly strike, damn I struggle enough with all the roles let alone trying to deceive. I have voted for the hooker as that could end the game quick smart if it goes wrong. I am in full agreement that NRA and CPR need to be gone as well though. Also think that the hero is dangerous, a non lynchable scum is a scary prospect. But personally though I think we need to get rid of the multiple kill abilities before anything else. We can work around the rest but allowing scum to kill more than one a night could lead to a quick game.

Okay yeah. That's what's being talked about but Rock Star really isn't much of a killing role in particular, so I still don't really see how you came up with it.

Perhaps he is only saying that he struggles too much with certain parts of the game to try to deceive and the killing roles part was a separate thought but still in that case, Zivel failed to elaborate on how he felt Rock Star was a threat to town.

How is assassin a good choice? You need exact information (thus 2 mafia players having assassin and an investigative role) for it to be effective. Mind that you can't afford to gamble, as you only get your knife back when successfull.

Not as unlikely as you might think with an extractor also in the game. I kind of hope town was smart enough to see that potential and the Extractor landed in Town hands but I wouldn't guarantee it. Also considering that we'll likely see at least two town claims by the end of day 3, Assassin may be more effective in the hands of mafia than you think.

the NRA member topic:
it should have been banned. everyone knew it. its a terrible role which is great for mafia and evn in the hands of town pretty disasterous.
why: because even if its owned by a town person it means that possibly other townies are gonna visit him/her by night and get killed. the odds are just so big.

if its in maffia hands. the owner will not easily be discovered as mafia because anyone visiting him will die. also we probably wont have a clue who is NRA member if maffia because the only way i can think of by knowing who went where is by saying it before hand, which kind of takes away a big part of the tactics... so it should have been gone, seriously...

In my opinion, whoever picked the NRA member should come forward and claim it... while it's possible a town NRA member could kill a mafia visiting him, I'd say the risk is greater that a town PR will visit and get killed. While claiming will make the NRA member more like a commuter (since no-one will dare visit them), I believe it would be the town thing to do.

This is a legitimate proposition.

[Metsfanmax]

I felt the same way about Zivel's comment when I first read it. But I wasn't sure if it was scummy or just wrong.

Regarding NRA member and Hotshot's comment: I'm not so sure that the numbers work out that way. Mafia likely has more visiting roles per capita than town does, and since there are a lot more town, it doesn't hurt us quite so much if we lose someone to the NRA member -- it hurts them a lot more, since there's probably around 6 in this game. Also, what if the NRA Member was claimed by mafia? We won't know if the person who claims is town or not, but under Hotshot's recommendation they'll essentially be 'cleared' as town. The only way to be sure would be to lynch whoever claimed NRA member, so I wouldn't blame whoever has it for not speaking up, regardless of which side they're on.

virus' point is a good one though. The only way for us to easily figure out who the NRA member is, would be to have someone with a cop role announce they were investigating. But scum could easily just kill the cop during the night, so I don't know what we should do there.

[aage]

If any of the town members did pick and get the NRA role, i suggest they claim. NRA is more hurtful to town than to mafia. If nobody speaks up, we will know that mafia has the role and we'll need a different plan.

Mafia claiming the NRA role is fine too - we can simply ignore the role and nobody will die. Process of elimination will single him out by the end of the game if he remains alive.

[Whatsausage]

Here is a paste of the final VC:
CPR doctor(4) : aage, Streaker, grt, Metsfanmax
NRA member(2) : strike wolf, legionnare
Hooker (3): Virus90, Zivel, Djfireside
Godfather (2): pancakemix, crasp
hero(3): jwiedlin, jonty125, Whatsausage
Assassin (1): charm

and here is the list on players in draft order:
1 Djfireside
2 mtamburini
3 HotShot53
4 Killuminati19
5 Virus90
6 Metsfanmax
7 jonty125
8 grt
9 legionnare
10 streaker
11 crasp
12 charm
13 Whatsausage
14 dd515087
15 aage
16 Zivel
17 jwiedlin
18 pancakemix
19 strike wolf
20 Iron Butterfly
21 Some7hingCLEVER


So we had 6 nonvoters: mtam (though he had a token vote in this thread, after the deadline. not really sure what to make of that), Hotshot, killuminati, dd515087, Iron Butterfly, and some7hingCLEVER

Interestingly enough, half of them were in the top four of the order and the other three were in the bottom eight.
Of course, of these, I can only remember Hotshot making a post (other than mtam's late vote) so some could just be inactives. I think the top is a good place to start with those who didn't vote and haven't posted. What say you mtam and killuminati?

NRA was definitely going to get banned, so I chose Assassin to give some traction on another role. I had a busy afternoon and thought the vote was mandatory, so I chose something!

How'd that turn out for ya?

Like I said, I'm not that good at this game! Regardless, it worked out fine because other roles were banned that should have been. Now since you are harping on that and the NRA wasn't banned, I'm assumming that is the role you chose, eh?

By the way, I'm looking for Chorizo Mexican Sausage (preferably made by Cacique Co) in Cocoa Beach, FL - Whatsausage, I thought you would know where I can score it! You should see me cook up sausage - yummy!

While perhaps I shouldn't dignify that with a response, no. I didn't choose it. I didn't want that role in the game, so I wasn't going to bring it in myself.
Whatsausage?

Fp'd by aage

[crasp]

Of course, of these, I can only remember Hotshot making a post (other than mtam's late vote) so some could just be inactives. I think the top is a good place to start with those who didn't vote and haven't posted. What say you mtam and killuminati?

[crasp]

Ignore above post.

Of course, of these, I can only remember Hotshot making a post (other than mtam's late vote) so some could just be inactives. I think the top is a good place to start with those who didn't vote and haven't posted. What say you mtam and killuminati?

Kill did make a post although nothing substantial. Off the above hotshot is the only one that is really standing out for me. he is ranked 3. Will probably have a power role and the way i see it is probably protected by the NRA as this role will also probably be up top as well. unless it is a mafia role it should stop mafia from going near those guys early doors so why try and out this role.
I also made what i thought was a logical suggestion which he seems to have blanked altogether. Any reason for thst hotshot.

[crasp]

PS. Also noted that Mtamburini was on while i made that last post but did not say anything.

[jonty125]

Process of elimination will single him out by the end of the game if he remains alive.

Can I ask how that would work aage? Because this is the scenario I have in my head it's D6. Let us say there are 3 players: Arthur, Bertha & Cristobal.
Arthur has claimed Town NRA, as of D1.
Bertha claimed Role Cop, and is confirmed as of N2 & N3 results
Cristobal claimed Bullet Bill and also is confirmed based on a N2 results.

One of these is mafia, who performed the kill on N5. Now if there was one mafia on N5, I am assuming they can use their power AND perform the kill (I could be wrong there), so

Arthur would claim N5 - did nothing
Bertha would claim N5 - Visit Cristobal result: Bullet Bill
Cristobal would claim N5 - Visit Bertha result: no gun

How would you determine who did the deed on N5?


I don't think charm is scummy based on voting assassin, I could see the danger in it i.e. D1 Dolly claims Town Witch, N1 Mafia Assassin gobbles her up, D2, we have 2 claims, N2 Mafia Assassin gobbles up another. But I do think NRA is more dangerous and had I known NRA would fall a vote short I'm sure I would of voted NRA over Hero.

[strike wolf]

I have mulled it over and decided that NRA should be lynched if claimed period. If mafia chose a framer they could redirect players onto the NRA (If known) and we would be sunk just as much as if the NRA doesnt claim.

[strike wolf]

the only exceptions would be in mylo or lylo situationsvfollowing a mass claim where greater consideration would be needed regarding a NRA claim.

[jwiedlin]

I like the idea of NRA member outing him / herself. As far as lynching the NRA member, I think that makes sense, but that decreases the chance that the person will come forward. Also, I am always in favor of hunting and lynching scum rather than wasting a lynch on a townsperson, even if they represent a danger. Overall, I would not be in favor of lynching a claimed NRA member.

I'm starting an ugly list post to zone in on who might be the NRA member.

I am not the NRA member.

Has not yet denied being the NRA member
1 Djfireside
2 mtamburini
4 Killuminati19
5 Virus90
6 Metsfanmax
7 jonty125
8 grt
9 legionnare
10 streaker
11 crasp
12 charm
13 Whatsausage
14 dd515087
16 Zivel
18 pancakemix
20 Iron Butterfly
21 Some7hingCLEVER

Denies being NRA member:
3 HotShot53
15 aage
17 jwiedlin
19 strike wolf

[aage]

Arthur would claim N5 - did nothing
Bertha would claim N5 - Visit Cristobal result: Bullet Bill
Cristobal would claim N5 - Visit Bertha result: no gun

How would you determine who did the deed on N5?

In this scenario?
Bullet bill would be scum by virtue of being alive during the last night while all useful protective roles have been banned by mafia.

[Metsfanmax]

Still not sure it's wise to do this mass non-claim, but just reminding y'all that if no one claims NRA member, it could mean any of

1) NRA member is town and doesn't agree with claiming/doesn't want to get lynched
2) NRA member is mafia
3) No one took NRA member

[grt]

My feeling is one of the top 5 (probably top 3) would be NRA. I thought I was too far down the list to pick that role so I'm not it. Problem now is the talk of lynching them - so I doubt anyone will claim now. As there are more town then statistically NRA would have gone to town so I won't lynch if they come forward - well not straight away anyway unless they are clearly scum.

[aage]

Still not sure it's wise to do this mass non-claim, but just reminding y'all that if no one claims NRA member, it could mean any of

1) NRA member is town and doesn't agree with claiming/doesn't want to get lynched
2) NRA member is mafia
3) No one took NRA member

1) I already reasoned during the ban phase that NRA is detrimental to town. The only reason for town to pick NRA is to deny it to mafia, in which case he/she is aware of the dangers and would have to employ a very non-town strategy directly after employing a very pro-town strategy. Secondly, not even nearly half the town decided that we should lynch NRA upon claim. Option dismissed.

2) possible
3) possible

However, if we follow this plan through, town loses nothing in scenario 2 or 3, and we would gain "power roles don't accidentally target NRA" in scenario 0 (NRA does claim). It will tell us nothing about alignments but it does tune down the death toll we were hoping to avoid by banning the role.

Mets, I already found you scummy for your moves during the ban phase (drawing attention to roles you then immediately admit to not be viable for banning, saying you want to ban consistent killing roles while voting Godfather, mentioning "I don't think that NRA member is that good in a 21-person game" but not mentioning why, and changing your vote which did nothing to affect the final bans just to make sure you were on the CPR wagon). Now you're trying to stop a plan that can only benefit town, seemingly by strawmanning it. Suspicious.

[aage]

seemingly by strawmanning it

Just to clarify: you doubt the plan without saying why, and put forward three irrelevant options in case it yields nothing.

I do hope some of the people in the lower half of the list gunned for NRA. People who sent in the role but didn't get it would probably be even more helpful, since that would likely mean mafia has it. (I would have picked it, but I was away during the weekend. I assumed it would get banned since that role the dominated discussion and sent in a different role pick before the ban finished.)

[Metsfanmax]

1) I already reasoned during the ban phase that NRA is detrimental to town.

Yes, and since everyone always agrees with you, that obviously means no town picked it.

The only reason for town to pick NRA is to deny it to mafia, in which case he/she is aware of the dangers and would have to employ a very non-town strategy directly after employing a very pro-town strategy.

OK. So? Picking it to deny it to mafia may be a legitimate choice, for a smart player. Which means we can't narrow this down at all. Or,

Secondly, not even nearly half the town decided that we should lynch NRA upon claim.

There are other reasons why the NRA member might not want to claim. As I pointed out earlier, I think it's actually numerically beneficial to town to keep the NRA member hidden for now -- the chances that town will hit the NRA member, weighted by the amount we need that townie with 21 players, is less than the chance that mafia will hit it, weighted by how much they need each of their ~5-6 expected players. If this person agrees with that and wants to stay hidden so that they can draw out the mafia, then claiming would make no sense. The reason I have a problem with the mass-non-claim isn't that it's a bad idea in principle; it's that it requires all of the town members to be on essentially the same wavelength regarding what to do, and that's a huge assumption with this many people. And no one has responded to this point. (So it's absurd that you claim I "doubt the plan without saying why," maybe you should actually read the thread...)

But, bigger than that, your entire point is self-defeating. Suppose I concede this, and agree that no town picked NRA member. If mafia has NRA member they're almost certainly not going to admit which one of them has it, because then we'll know they are mafia because no town picked NRA member! So town gets no information. The only way town gets information is if a town member picked NRA member and then claims -- the very thing you said makes no sense for a town member to have claimed! This whole plan stinks of either A) stupidity or B) scumminess.

[Metsfanmax]

I'll just say this a different way so that it's clear. The only circumstance in which we get a situation beneficial to town is if some member of town took NRA member with the explicit intent to then tell everyone that they took NRA member so that town doesn't accidentally target them. IF THAT WERE THE CASE, then this person would have claimed already -- as soon as possible on D1 -- and we wouldn't need to go through this whole shtick which just wastes precious hours that we don't have. There is no likely circumstance in which the person that took NRA member is going to suddenly decide they want to tell everyone about it, if they didn't already plan to.

[crasp]

I'll just say this a different way so that it's clear. The only circumstance in which we get a situation beneficial to town is if some member of town took NRA member with the explicit intent to then tell everyone that they took NRA member so that town doesn't accidentally target them. IF THAT WERE THE CASE, then this person would have claimed already -- as soon as possible on D1 -- and we wouldn't need to go through this whole shtick which just wastes precious hours that we don't have. There is no likely circumstance in which the person that took NRA member is going to suddenly decide they want to tell everyone about it, if they didn't already plan to.

Agree with mets. This is only allowing lurkers to safe post then disappear again.
For what its worth NRA is not me.

[Whatsausage]

@jwiedlin I had already stated I wasn't. In orange even

I agree with the sentiment that if someone is town and NRA they would have already stepped forward. (Now progressing more into opinion) They SHOULD have already stepped forward even knowing that it could mean death. I only think town would choose it to prevent scum having it, and in which case they should follow through and basically martyr themselves (although I am less certain that we would have to lynch such a claimer if we trust them at all, although its unlikely someone would fake-claim that at this point given how likely they are to be lynched.) The other possibility is what mets is arguing: that they want to stay hidden and play odds. Maybe mets himself is it and that is why he wants that discussion to go away.
@mets I agree that simply asking for a list and no other pursuit is a waste of our time, but you are contributing just as much to it and not starting any other direction


If it was chosen, it was either very early, or by someone late who was more or less using their choice to see whether it had been picked. A good jumping off point would be vanilla claims along with what they tried for, anyone willing? (or did we all get roles?)

[HotShot53]

Ignore above post.

Of course, of these, I can only remember Hotshot making a post (other than mtam's late vote) so some could just be inactives. I think the top is a good place to start with those who didn't vote and haven't posted. What say you mtam and killuminati?

Kill did make a post although nothing substantial. Off the above hotshot is the only one that is really standing out for me. he is ranked 3. Will probably have a power role and the way i see it is probably protected by the NRA as this role will also probably be up top as well. unless it is a mafia role it should stop mafia from going near those guys early doors so why try and out this role.
I also made what i thought was a logical suggestion which he seems to have blanked altogether. Any reason for thst hotshot.

Was your suggestion for those of us at the top of the list to roleclaim? I don't think it's time for a top-level roleclaim yet, would just give scum (and the assassin) more info on who to target...
Right now, I'd just like them to post... Dj and Mtam haven't posted at all this day yet, and kill's only comment was to ask Dj what role he picked. Are one or more of them scummarizing already?

And as far as lynching the claimed NRA member, I wouldn't try to lynch them, because after revealing they are effectively a vanilla/commuter scum/town, they can't hurt or mess up anyone else at that point, so might as well look for the more dangerous scum first, and leave them alone until you think everyone else is town.

Speaking of other scum, I will have to look back at the role banning phase later to see who I think was the most scummy to start a case on someone. I'm at work now so will try to do it later today.

[strike wolf]

@jwiedlin I had already stated I wasn't. In orange even

I agree with the sentiment that if someone is town and NRA they would have already stepped forward. (Now progressing more into opinion) They SHOULD have already stepped forward even knowing that it could mean death. I only think town would choose it to prevent scum having it, and in which case they should follow through and basically martyr themselves (although I am less certain that we would have to lynch such a claimer if we trust them at all, although its unlikely someone would fake-claim that at this point given how likely they are to be lynched.) The other possibility is what mets is arguing: that they want to stay hidden and play odds. Maybe mets himself is it and that is why he wants that discussion to go away.
@mets I agree that simply asking for a list and no other pursuit is a waste of our time, but you are contributing just as much to it and not starting any other direction


If it was chosen, it was either very early, or by someone late who was more or less using their choice to see whether it had been picked. A good jumping off point would be vanilla claims along with what they tried for, anyone willing? (or did we all get roles?)

It is comments like these that allow me to say the NRA conversation was not fruitless. This is role fishing at its finest and it is enough for me to give out my first vote of the game.

##Vote whatsausage

[strike wolf]

storr is it possible to get conformation that everyone sent in role choices for activity purposes?

[Zivel]

Perhaps he is only saying that he struggles too much with certain parts of the game to try to deceive and the killing roles part was a separate thought but still in that case, Zivel failed to elaborate on how he felt Rock Star was a threat to town.

I thought the Rock Star Mafia would choose two town to bodyguard him. Making the first two night attempts on them knock off a townie instead. Added protection and chance for town to kill each other, seemed pretty powerful to me.

Why are we wanting the NRA to out themselves? So that we don't end up getting ourselves killed accidentally? I did not see any target altering roles in the list? Am I wrong'? So if the NRA person claims at least there is no chance for the Mafia to change our target to them to hurt us. It all appears a bit role fishy to me though, but I am number 17 on the list and I definitely didn't go for anything as cool as that.

Going to need a reread before I find someone to put a vote on.