Conquer Club

would of though it was fairly impossible to work out real probabilities because aftyer theyve been played they go back into the deck... but then again im not amazing at maths and have never given much time to fractions/probablilty

and i think hasbro did it originally because if someone has green,red,blue,blue,blue..obviously not in that order..they would be more likley to hand in the mixed set making it more likley they would get a blue set next time around

dancingchiapet wrote:

IT3USN wrote:just out of curiosity, what are the cahnces of someone getting 10 strait red cards in a flat rate game? cause it is happening to me!!! well, 10 and counting.....we'll see how long this keeps up.

1/1 x 1/(3^(n-1)

so

1/(3^9) = 1/19683

0.005% Chance

figures, actuall I got 11 strait and then a green. Unfortuanately I died after that

ok i reckon this thread is totally wrong. havin thought about it i am pretty certain that each territory has a card with no colour. once that card is taken by a player a colour is randomly assigned to said card making chances even. anyway even if the likelyhood of u gettin 1 type of set is great (wich i am pretty certain it isn't) then thats not the rules the rules aren't 'if the dice r unfair then u can change them'. it wouldn't b the same if u changed it.

and the point with 3 cards u have 1/3 chance of 3 the same colors and 2/9 of a mixed set

Lone.prophet wrote:and the point with 3 cards u have 1/3 chance of 3 the same colors and 2/9 of a mixed set

not 1/3 for the same color look:
options are:
1 red 1 red 1red
1 red 1 red 1 blue
1 red 1 blue 1 blue
etc. so its more than 1/3 its like 1/15

it was 1/9 u had 3 red 1/9 u had 3 green 1/9 u had 3 blues so it is 1/3 u have 3 the same color with 3 cards

No, you are looking at it wrong. There is a 1/9 chance that with 3 cards, you have a set with 3 of the same color. For any color in particular, that chance is 1/27. Like for example, chances of having 3 red cards is 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/27. If you add all 3 1/27 together you get 1/9. There is a 2/3 chance you don't have a set with your 3 cards.

yep ur right its getting 2 late here

joeyjordison wrote:ok i reckon this thread is totally wrong. havin thought about it i am pretty certain that each territory has a card with no colour. once that card is taken by a player a colour is randomly assigned to said card making chances even. anyway even if the likelyhood of u gettin 1 type of set is great (wich i am pretty certain it isn't) then thats not the rules the rules aren't 'if the dice r unfair then u can change them'. it wouldn't b the same if u changed it.

If you think it's wrong, then if a card is randomly assigned a color. What is the chance it will be randomly assigned red?

1/3

The program will randomly make the card red, green, or blue. That means there are three possible colors making for a 1 in 3 chance of getting a particular color.

dancingchiapet wrote:

joeyjordison wrote:ok i reckon this thread is totally wrong. havin thought about it i am pretty certain that each territory has a card with no colour. once that card is taken by a player a colour is randomly assigned to said card making chances even. anyway even if the likelyhood of u gettin 1 type of set is great (wich i am pretty certain it isn't) then thats not the rules the rules aren't 'if the dice r unfair then u can change them'. it wouldn't b the same if u changed it.

If you think it's wrong, then if a card is randomly assigned a color. What is the chance it will be randomly assigned red?

1/3

The program will randomly make the card red, green, or blue. That means there are three possible colors making for a 1 in 3 chance of getting a particular color.

.... yes

so u r suggesting that because each card set is just as likely to come up then they should all b worth the same amount?

maybe because each dice number is as likely to come up they should all b worth the same amount?

come on dude we can't change the card values! we could hav an option for that card value thing that goes somethin like this:

4,6,8,10,12,10,8,6,4,6,8,10,12,10 etc

My original point was that 3 of the same is more unlikely than 1 of each and so it should be worth more.

so 4 for 1 of each, 6 for 3 red, 8 for 3 green, and 10 for 3 blue.

As one can wait until one has five cards:

Having a mixed set after five cards has the probability of 53/81 which is about 65 %

Having a set of a specific color has the probability (after 5 cards) of 53/243 which is about 22 %

(The sum is more than 100 % cause one can have a colored set and a mixed set after 5 cards at once)

This means that it's about equally likely to have a mixed set than to have a colored set (of some not specific color)

im done trying to argue the math unless one of the admins still needs convincing and feels this is worth looking into further