World War 3

[Serbia]

Heimdall, you wrote that American companies are already selling Arab oil. Yes, this is true. But let me explain. American companies don't own that oil. They don't own the land where it's drilled, they don't own the equipment. (unless I'm missing something here) They buy it at some stage from the original owners.

I'm a contractor, right now I mostly work with vinyl siding. I sell people vinyl to put up on their houses, and then I, with my crew, install it. I don't own anything in the manufacturing process. Now if I did, I would get the material at cost, and I'd lower my prices some, to be cheaper than the competition (while then making more than they can too) and the result would be my customers would pay less. Would work the same with oil.

[Serbia]

I'd like to intervene before this becomes just another boring Iraq thread (there's plenty of them post there). Let's get back to the topic at hand. I think that their will be a WWIII in the future but when is uncertain.

Ok, back to this, I just wanted to get my responses in quick.

And bottom line, I don't know how or when, but I agree with you.

[Genghis Khant]

If there will be a third world war, I think it'll most likely happen in 20+ years time and will be started between the US and China over dwindling resources.

[Bertros Bertros]

I'm a contractor, right now I mostly work with vinyl siding. I sell people vinyl to put up on their houses, and then I, with my crew, install it. I don't own anything in the manufacturing process. Now if I did, I would get the material at cost, and I'd lower my prices some, to be cheaper than the competition (while then making more than they can too) and the result would be my customers would pay less. Would work the same with oil.

And now Serbia's agenda becomes clear, as a contractor selling vinyl, which as with all plastics is derived from natural hydrocarbons (yup thats oil folks) he clearly has a conflict of interest in the debate over Americas intentions in the Middle East

[Kokunai]

Serbia I agree with you in principle on a supply and demand market basis but oil is a far cry from supply and demand it is a commodity we just have to have it there is no real competition in the oil market.
T
They can raise the price to whatever they want and we will pay cause we have to have it. It needs to be regulated like many of our other commodities such as power and water but it isn't which allows the current collusion.

They talk of their prices going up and so ours do but then they post record profits come on...it doesn't work that way. I am not a conspiracy nut I do not think they are out to get us but I think they will get whatever price they can for as long as they can.

When they are not making it off oil, they do it off of Natural Gas...Same companies just subsidiaries of the big oil.

[Serbia]

I'm a contractor, right now I mostly work with vinyl siding. I sell people vinyl to put up on their houses, and then I, with my crew, install it. I don't own anything in the manufacturing process. Now if I did, I would get the material at cost, and I'd lower my prices some, to be cheaper than the competition (while then making more than they can too) and the result would be my customers would pay less. Would work the same with oil.

And now Serbia's agenda becomes clear, as a contractor selling vinyl, which as with all plastics is derived from natural hydrocarbons (yup thats oil folks) he clearly has a conflict of interest in the debate over Americas intentions in the Middle East

I've been outed! And I tried to hide behind my generic small European country name...

[Serbia]

Kokunai, if we were to take over Arab oil, and give it to a few companies, say Exxon Mobile, they would be able to sell cheaper and at higher profit to themselves than would Citgo, which is a Venezuelan company. So in my twisted hypothetic here, there would be a natural competition.

[Kokunai]

If your hypothetical related to the real situation then yes you would be right but it is a power play by the oil companies sure OPEC has a bit to do with price increases but they are not the biggest and far from the sole contributor...it has more to with our refining abilities than anything but the oil companies are more responsible for the extra hikes than any other single thing...We do need to be able to build more refineries though as that would lower the priice significantly.

[Kokunai]

Little fact about Citgo. Our military is actually contracted with them...all of our bases have citgo stations exclusively...Last year the profits to Venezuela were 10 billion. Their military spending last year...10 billion.

[Serbia]

It would seem you know more about it than I do Kokunai.

I do agree with what you say about refineries, we should build more. I also think we should be drilling here in our own country, but that's a topic for another thread.

[Kokunai]

True very true we should be drilling here but like you said another thread perhaps

[Genghis Khant]

Little fact about Citgo. Our military is actually contracted with them...all of our bases have citgo stations exclusively...Last year the profits to Venezuela were 10 billion. Their military spending last year...10 billion.

I like that, nice and neat.

[Kokunai]

Little fact about Citgo. Our military is actually contracted with them...all of our bases have citgo stations exclusively...Last year the profits to Venezuela were 10 billion. Their military spending last year...10 billion.

I like that, nice and neat.

you mocking my previous posting?

[Bertros Bertros]

Oil is a finite resource, more refineries or drilling in the US will not solve the problems of increasing consumption combined with decreasing production.

The US is enjoying a small reprieve from increasing oil prices at the moment, not because of any change to the global supply/demand metrics but because of unseasonably warm weather in the North East states leading to lower than average consumption of oil for heating, meaning the stocks in the US have temporarily increased.

Any dreams you may have of gas prices dropping for any sustained period are just that, dreams.

[Kokunai]

Yes of course your right mostly...But this is about WW3 not oil so if we could go back to that want to delve deeper into oil then start a new thread about it we could go on for days citing sources. Should be fun.

[Serbia]

Thanks for replying first Kokunai, I was about to go off on that last post... you saved us all.

[Kokunai]

lol anytime

Oh, I almost forgot...I voted it is upon us.

What I meant by that vote is that like WW2 the major antagonists know what they are doing we just haven't decided that is what they are doing. We are just waiting on the flashpoint at this point when that happens we will then look back and say "So, that is what they were up to. " I think the Major antagonist will be Iran and N.Korea and at first it won't be evident but China will be the major backer for both these powers if not a major player in the foreground.

Naturally it will result in US, Israeli and British involvement but as to the others I couldn't speculate as to which side anyone else will be on if a side. You can expect Europe will probably sit it out as they will have more problems fighting against Muslims than staying out of it. Russia will be a major backer of Iran, cause let's face it they are friendly with Hamas and by proxy that includes Hezbollah and Iran ultimately.

There really aren't a lot of countries in the world with the will to fight a large scale war much less either the technology to fight with outnumbered forces or the men to match the opposition. The US and her allies will be outnumbered no doubt but the technological advantage will allow for the air campaign to be much more successful and force deployment to be much more surgical than any other nation can bring to bear.

Let's face it we will not exactly be at war with modernized countries we will have sattelites, GPS, guided munitions and the resources to carry this out. While our enemies are going to be using just brute force and tactics as best as their technology will allow and to that we have a lot more firepower to bring to bear. It won't be easy and will probably be a long drawn out war but no doubt if any of them were to resort to nuclear weapons it would be Iran as the religious leaders are not afraid to die as they believe they will be rewarded for it.


I do believe Israel will strike pre-emptively whther they say they will or not. They have to cause we will not do it. Also, they cannot sit idly by and wait for the UN(what a joke) to DO anything about it. They have a right to defend themselves and will do so when they have to. This will probably be the flashpoint as many have stated earlier.

Just my opinion and the opinions of some more intelligent than me. But, I hope and pray they are wrong but the evidence stands against that.

[Serbia]

Great post, I also voted it is upon us, and rather than explaining why, lets just say I ditto most of what Kokunai just wrote.

Also as an additional, Iran is commited to the destruction of Israel, therefore, what better, easier way to accomplish this than with a nuclear bomb? And like he said, radicals don't care for their own lives nearly as much as they care for the cause (see, suicide bombers).

[areon]

The Islamic-West tensions aren't anywhere near the breaking point. Where are you all coming up with Korea being supported by China? The Chinese don't want Kim to have the bomb anymore than we do. You all are also ignoring the fact that deters people from approaching a global war. Biological weapons had been perfected in the US and USSR but have now trickled out after the collapse. They are not only cheaper and easier to deploy than a nuclear or "dirty" bomb, you can innoculate your own soldiers against the effects. If you want to be scared of someone starting a war, be scared of Kazahkstan. There isn't too much to worry about there though because Russia is on the fast track to reincorporating all the old soviet satellites back into the fold. I wonder who will replace Putin and if this plan will be stepped up. The Iranian leader is just a stupid figurehead to spout off nonsense in the UN and to make public appearances like he just did with Chavez. He isn't the problem and his rhetoric isn't what Iran is doing right now.

And Serbia thanks again for breaking all of Iran down into their most basic instinct, to become a suicide bomber I'd post more but I have to eat. Guess what I voted...

[Kokunai]

So you really think that the nuclear program is peaceful despite the enrichment of Uranium into weapons grade (unsubstantiated but the evidence is overwhelming, even if circumstantial). The Iranian leader is a figurehead yes but the religious leaders daily talk of the destruction of Israel and the West. That is not what the people as a whole want they say it because that is what they want. They will use nuclear weapons if it comes to it. Biological weapons may have been perfected but are limited in scope on the world community. Nuclear weapons have the most drastic effect on the world as a whole then do bio weapons.

Serbia was referring to extremists not Iranians. As I said, the extremists will use whatever means they have to destroy those who oppose them, even if it means destruction themselves. They are fanatically awaiting the arrival of the 12th Imam(sp?) and they believe they have to cause global chaos to have him come.

China only opposes N.Korea having the bomb in a diplomatic sense they do not care as that will be the scapegoat for them. N.Korea and China have always been close partners. China has been using the West for years to build their economy. They know they are on the fast track to super power-hood. A few more years and there economy will rival ours. There economy has grown by leaps and bounds over the last decade and the trend only goes up even the pessimistic analysts put them at at least 8%yrly increase which is huge considering the West has just under 1% growth year by year. India and China may well get into it but I doubt they will as they are more than likely to ally to secure oil fields in the mid east once they see an opening. They may not like each other much but if they have the same goal in mind they could benefit from the other.

We have been wargaming for years about the possible outcomes of Iran and the extremists in charge have nuclear capabilities and none of the outcomes are beneficial to the rest of the world. These wargames have been going on for at least 5-7 yrs depending on the source.

Like I said before, I could, and hope I am, wrong. But, the evidence is stacked heavily against it.

I think you are making the assumption based on current actions of China, but look at their history with N.Korea. Even their past with the West has never been good they only recently became "friendly" and that, to serve their own ambitions they will be the a major player in any conflict to come.

Edit: I realised I didn't adress Islamic-West tensions. The Islamic world in general is hostile to the west as we are more free and open if you do not believe so remember back to the cartoons of Mohamed that lighted riots all over the world. France was on fire with radicals rioting literally. Not at the breaking point? What do you define as the breaking point. A strike by Israel upon Iran will be applauded by some of the leaders but will piss off most of the people as the people see Iran as the protector of Islam.

[Serbia]

areon, I did not mean to imply that all Iranians want to go kill themselves. Last I checked, Iran still has a population, meaning obviously they aren't all lining up to kill themselves for any and every reason. That is like saying all Germans were Nazi Jew-haters, and all white Americans want to kill black people. I was refering to radicals specifically.

radicals don't care for their own lives nearly as much as they care for the cause (see, suicide bombers).

I am 1/4 Serbian, hence the name. Now the Serbs over in Europe there have been/were slaughtering Albanian Muslims in their territories. Would I suggest all Serbs by default are crazy genocial murderers? Of course not! Nor am I suggesting anything of the sort with Iranians. My pediatrician was Iranian, and a very good doctor. I have Arab friends, and frequent an Lebenese-food restraunt here in my area.

Now, a question for you? Will you acknowledge that suicide bombing is a favored method of attack (resistance is a nice word they like to use, feel free) of Islamic Extrememists across the globe, be they Al Qaeda, Hamas, Chechnyen, or in the Philippines?

[Kokunai]

I felt Russia deserved it's own post.


Russia has been slowing moving back to it's communist past due to the economic strain of switching to democracy and they will without a doubt make it back there. They however are not friendly to the west, sure they put on a good show but they meet with the enemies of the West regularly and send them weapons and equipment to use against us they are major factor to destabilization in that region they refuse to let go of the fact that they were once a super power and are no longer though they are searching for that glory back again. They may attain it but it will be through war because re-establishing themselves into the old territory of the USSR will not do it. When the world does not recognise them as a super power they will go on the offensive to prove it if they do then Iran is on their list of allies.

China will side with them as they have nothing to lose from the destruction of the west nor the oil that Iran will undoubtedly supply them in the war effort. This is highly speculative but a very real possibility as Russia recently doubled military spending. They are developing technologies along the same line as us in ICBM interception, though we have pretty much dropped it thinking ICBMs unlikely delivery systems, they seem to think the threat is real. Hence the hike in spending to go towards researching those options. Russia is just as much a threat as Iran and N.Korea just not as obvious yet.

[Kokunai]

I've laid out my argument for it being here just waiting on a flashpoint I have yet to see an opinion from those who voted never happenin except aeron and he has to reply to my last two posts. But I am pretty much done for the day.

[Alui1]

world war three is upon us already

[edmundomcpot]

governments vs dictators