Conquer Club

Well any ideas guys I am all ears

we are 16.
what are the probabilities to lynch a townie / mafia for combinations 14/2, 13/3 and 12/4?

87.5%, 81.25%, and 75% respectfully.

Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

vote spiesr for the No lynch bullshit.
Fos unriggable for not unvoting

Aimless wrote:

Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless"

FOS aimless

aimless,

how many mafia games have you played before?

Selin wrote:

Aimless wrote:

Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless"

FOS aimless

I am not saying that we lynch a random person. We lynch the most suspicious. We always lynch someone. Even if it was town, we will see who voted for him, because most likely mafia are in there. Mafia also like to bandwagon.

If a townie does get killed, then we can eliminate bandwagoners the next day, so the random lynch does have some logic to it.

Selin wrote:hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless"

FOS aimless

You are looking at this the wrong way.

First, if the town votes completely at random, then on any given day the odds are bad, but if you look at the composite odds across the entire game, they are actually rather good that we will get at least one mafia. (With sixteen players, assuming three mafia, if the town is always wrong the game will last 5 days, assuming no SK or extra killing role. Thus, the odds that the town is wrong every time is 13/16*11/14*9/12*7/10*5/8 = 0.209. So, voting at random, the town has a 79% chance of nailing at least one mafia in the first five days. Not shabby. The odds for four mafia are similar.)

But, more importantly, one of the best tells in this game is the voting record. If no one ever votes, for fear of voting off a mafia, the mafia will win. And, if no one votes on day one, we have no information to work with on day two and are right back to where we started.

FOS aimless for being too smart

Selin wrote:aimless,

how many mafia games have you played before?

Not that many. This is my 4th game at this site, and I've played a few before elsewhere.

I know the general principles involved, though.

what does bandwagon mean?

Hmm, wise words Aimless...

Selin wrote:what does bandwagon mean?

When praticaly everyone votes for the same person, normally in a short period of time?

UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

spiesr wrote:UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

Give us a detailed reason, until then, FOS spiesr

unriggable wrote:

spiesr wrote:UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

Give us a detailed reason, until then, FOS spiesr

After spiesr gets a couple of vote, mandalorian2298 posts this:

mandalorian2298 wrote:vote spiesr for the No lynch bullshit.
Fos unriggable for not unvoting

VOTE COUNT
Spieser (3) [derfderf34, mandalorian2298, unriggable]
mandalorian2298 (1) [Spieser]
unriggable (1) [pancakemix]

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch

Hey everyone... I am in for Minkish...

I'm such an idiot I never unvoted that joke vote...

UNVOTE

Still FOS Spiesr

Thanks for reminding me

unvote

FOS Spiesr evn though i already voted for him

oh yeah.....unvote

The unvote revolution begins and ends.