PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[dakky21]

AoG someone said before, don't have time now to search for post, that their 2nd WC is being on a lynch on a water pokemon, so why did you disclose that info? I don't want to say I'm water, maybe I am, maybe I'm not... it gives reason to vote you even if you aren't scum... 2nd WC's are cruel.

fp'd by mitch... mitch, would you believe me if I tell you I'll target you tonight and if you die that will confirm my claim?

[madmitch]

@ Dakky you would be killing a townie, why are you trying to die? don't you think town has a chanch to win ? don't give up little buddy

[Marashu]

AoG someone said before, don't have time now to search for post, that their 2nd WC is being on a lynch on a water pokemon, so why did you disclose that info? I don't want to say I'm water, maybe I am, maybe I'm not... it gives reason to vote you even if you aren't scum... 2nd WC's are cruel.:

The one who said their 2WC was to lynch a water type was rish. Who may have been (and probably was) lying about that.

There is definitely something strange about dakky's claim. Not being able to use the NK until N2 is strange, but it also explains why he was in such a rush to get N2 to happen. That said, I want to know why you said

I tested my luck and it ended good.

To me, seeing a town die and saying your luck was good is like saying that your alignment DID flip, and you became SK and met your 2nd wincon. Which is extra strange, since why would you confess to the possibility of becoming 3P in the first place? That said, I have a suspicion of what you are... and what you might become.

Could you please tell us why you chose to kill Tim over the other 7 players you "narrowed it down to"?

@mitch - is that really all you can say? Can you say what you were told about Tim and his surfboard? Or for how you think Dakky is lying? (and for that matter, any reasons why you think dakky might want to lie?)

Still waiting to hear back from strike.

[strike wolf]

@will: as Aage said. Probability and chance in mafia don't work that smoothly and your attempt to turn an entire case on dakky into a probability contest is quite scummy.

@Aage: continuing on that thought though it doesn't even really work as smoothly as you would like it to work. We can narrow down choices but sometimes mafia still trip you up. If one has gained a lot of town cred from the right perso...say william was role blocker and for whatever reason scum A who was suspected by the rest of the town was a town read for him and town b who was a town read for everyone else was his main,scum suspect. . It makes sense for the rest of town to block him but Willy doesn't and instead blocks Townie b and probability gets skewed again...Of course even if Willy does suspect Scum A. Mafia are aware that scum a is suspected and may choose to use scum b for the kill thus nullifying the role block chance and potentially starting a whole game of Wifom on whether Willy should actually target Scum A or take a more random shot at potentially blocking the other mafia...so what is the point of this paragraph other than fluff? Basically to say that probability in mafia is a complex mess of crap and is best left avoided.

@dakky: I admit I don't like this role but I also kind of feel like it would be a stupid claim for mafia to make and I have a difficult time believing that two people would have 2nd win conditions that required them to be lynched and/or killed on town side. So eithed he is telling the truth or he is mafia with a suicidal 2nd win condition. Either way, it isn't a role that can exactly be trusted. I am going a with my gut and saying that Dakky is speaking mostly in truth. I read him as town day 1 and I stick with that opinion especially since I don't find the suicidal mafia claim overly believable (especially if Rish was telling the truth about his 2nd win condition). Whether that has changed is difficult to say at the moment and will partly depend on Mitch responding again about this:

@ AOG , I also believe Dakky is lying about him being VIG, I have info that he is not a murderer so maybe he is just trying to get him self hung on day 2 ? I was told about Tim and his surf board , so that is all I can say at the moment.

As to my ability: No IB did not have to die for my 2nd win condition but I did have to use it to fulfill part of my 2nd win condition. I gave the PR to IB because of the reasons I stated yesterday in regards to being somewhat suspicious of him and trying to use it to create a scum slip. The main objective of my 2nd win condition is to live for the thread to get to page 25 (a condition I admit I haven't been doing much to improve. Sorry). DY gave me the addendum of using my action as well but it was that the person had to slip up at least once. Likewise I did not use my ability last night. I cannot completely rule out further action regarding it but for the time being I have no plans to use it again.

[madmitch]

Anybody else have a two part 2nd w\c ? sounds scummy to me, to help town I will reveal all I know, I am Detective Charizard N1 told Tim was electric pokemon with surfboard, N2 told Dakky was a sad pokemon with violent moods more likely a broken hearted fool than a murderer , now I hope someone protects me so I can keep investigating

[Army of GOD]

I have a second win condition but it is already failed

[Army of GOD]

strike's WC claim doesn't sit well with me. Seems like he made it up to cover something else

[Marashu]

Anybody else have a two part 2nd w\c ? sounds scummy to me, to help town I will reveal all I know, I am Detective Charizard N1 told Tim was electric pokemon with surfboard, N2 told Dakky was a sad pokemon with violent moods more likely a broken hearted fool than a murderer , now I hope someone protects me so I can keep investigating

Thanks mitch, that does help a little. I also thought of a reason why dakky might want to be lynched - if he's lynched now as town, then he stays town and wins with town. If he flips over to SK, and we lynch him or mafia takes him out, then he loses his primary wincon. His character is also likely not what I thought it was in my last post. Also, I will say that my personal wincon is not a 2-part wincon.

I have a second win condition but it is already failed

mitch wasn't asking if you had one - everyone has one. mitch was asking if anyone besides strike has a 2-or-more part personal wincon.

Strike, so it was either survive to p25 OR get someone to slip up? Or does the slip-up reduce the page count? Could you explain it further? I kinda agree with AoG.

[dakky21]

Yeah mitch, I am a mourning pokemon .. my trainer left me... so that explains your findings... so you're town as well. Doubt mafia would know such things. I also kinda believe Strike Wolf with 2-stage 2nd WC. It's not impossible to get to page 25 and/or use turperbuoco PR on someone who gets modkilled on slips. So he got IB modkilled and probably met his 2nd WC. Since no one claimed that PR, I assume he is saying the truth... wolf is turperbuoco. But... alignment is what bothers me... mafia as well can have that kind of power, but I highly doubt it.

That would leave Hotshot, Marashu, AoG, william, aage and Mandy as possible scum suspects.

There is definitely something strange about dakky's claim. Not being able to use the NK until N2 is strange, but it also explains why he was in such a rush to get N2 to happen. That said, I want to know why you said

I tested my luck and it ended good.

To me, seeing a town die and saying your luck was good is like saying that your alignment DID flip, and you became SK and met your 2nd wincon. Which is extra strange, since why would you confess to the possibility of becoming 3P in the first place? That said, I have a suspicion of what you are... and what you might become.

Could you please tell us why you chose to kill Tim over the other 7 players you "narrowed it down to"?

1. I didn't see a town die? That post was not about BuJaber, I didn't hammer him. I hammered Rish and he was scum. So it turned good.

2. I chosen Tim for two things:
2.1. he was unreadable from the start and he didn't post anything of substance, only chit-chat
2.2. his posts were unreadable apart from him being unreadable

So he got what he deserved, unfortunately for us. But that's his mistake, not mine.

Summary: out of 14 people, 9 are alive. 3 town and 1 scum are dead. Out of 14, at least 3-4 are mafia, so out of 5 posted above, 2 or 3 are scum AND will be targeted tonight if I survive the day.

[Marashu]

1. I didn't see a town die? That post was not about BuJaber, I didn't hammer him. I hammered Rish and he was scum. So it turned good.

Ah. At first I saw that as you meaning that you had something good happen during the night. Then I saw it as you meaning that you tested your luck with your kill, and your luck was good because you stayed town. I understand what you mean now.

[HotShot53]

Ok, I believe dakky's story, seems plausible based on this setup. So I will unvote. Although it was a good point that he will probably have to be lynched sooner or later since he is very likely to turn SK before the game is over, so if we don't find a better target today it wouldn't be a bad lynch.

[mandalorian2298]

Ok, here is the deal: You are in an army that is currently at war. You go to a neutral town to have a drink when a drunken solider at the next table start waving his gun around and threatening that he'll kill everyone. Do you check which army he belongs to? No, you shoot him because he is dangerous no matter his allegiance.

By his own admission in one of the previous games that we have played togather, dakky's first priority when playing Mafia is not to win but to have fun. This means that he is unlikely to defer the choice of his NKing to the will of the majority and is more likely to use his NKing to prove that he has been right about whoever he was hounding the day previous Day. So far, he "proved" Tim dead, and I am guessing that his mouth is watering at the possibility of "being right" about Aage, who has so far been Town MVP.

Ad to this the fact that he himself admited (because, of course he did) that there is a 50% chance chance that he morphs into a SK every night. While it is true that the chance that he morphs tonight is 50% percent, if we assume that the game is going to last at least 2 more nights then the chance that dakky is going to END THE GAME as SK is at least 75% percent. It really doesn't matter when he turns, the only thing that matters is that if this game ends with only dakky and 1 Townie alive, the Town is much more likely to lose then to win.

All of this is more then enough reason to lynch him, but there is also this: How in nine Corellian Hells is anyone going to be able to spot the difference between good NK-wielding dakky and bad NK-wielding dakky?

QED

vote dakky

[dakky21]

Ok, here is the deal: You are in an army that is currently at war. You go to a neutral town to have a drink when a drunken solider at the next table start waving his gun around and threatening that he'll kill everyone. Do you check which army he belongs to? No, you shoot him because he is dangerous no matter his allegiance.

Exactly, but do the math. If there were 4 mafia out of 14 players, that means it's currently 9 alive players, out of which 3 are scum. So currently it is probably 6v3. With me lynched and one NK, that will leave town at 4 vs 3. That means tomorrow is LYLO. If you lynch scum today, even with my bad or good kill, tomorrow you will at worst have 4v2 or 3v2v1 if I morph to SK. I don't think 3 scum are possible in this setup, while 5 could be, but it's probably 4. If it's 5 scum, then we're already at LYLO as lynching me and NK will bring town to 3 people vs 4 scum.

So I'd rather try to lynch scum today than go for a town vig, no matter if a drunken soldier is shooting at people.

[mandalorian2298]

Ok, here is the deal: You are in an army that is currently at war. You go to a neutral town to have a drink when a drunken solider at the next table start waving his gun around and threatening that he'll kill everyone. Do you check which army he belongs to? No, you shoot him because he is dangerous no matter his allegiance.

Exactly, but do the math. If there were 4 mafia out of 14 players, that means it's currently 9 alive players, out of which 3 are scum.

*does the math*

Ok, I've done it. It appears that there are in fact 10 players alive.

Furthermore, since mathematicaly speaking, you are more SK then townie, if the Mafia was indeed 4 strong then I anticipate the words "terribly unbalanced" being being flung at DoomYoshi like poo of 9 enraged chimps who's team just lost an unbalanced game of Mafia.

If, on the other hand, the Mafia was 3 players strong, then there are currently 7 townies, 2 unknown mobsters and one, both known and predominantly serial, killer. I say we start with him and then after a restful and for the Mafia, hopefully, futile night, we rise again, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, to lynch the reamining mobsters.

[mandalorian2298]

Ok, here is the deal: You are in an army that is currently at war. You go to a neutral town to have a drink when a drunken solider at the next table start waving his gun around and threatening that he'll kill everyone. Do you check which army he belongs to? No, you shoot him because he is dangerous no matter his allegiance.

Exactly, but do the math. If there were 4 mafia out of 14 players, that means it's currently 9 alive players, out of which 3 are scum.

*does the math*

Ok, I've done it. It appears that there are in fact 10 players alive.

Furthermore, since mathematicaly speaking, you are more SK then townie, if the Mafia was indeed 4 strong then I anticipate the words "terribly unbalanced" being being flung at DoomYoshi like poo of 9 enraged chimps who's team just lost an unbalanced game of Mafia.

If, on the other hand, the Mafia was 3 players strong, then there are currently 7 townies, 2 unknown mobsters and one, both known and predominantly serial, killer. I say we start with him and then after a restful and for the Mafia, hopefully, futile night, we rise again, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, to lynch the remaining mobsters.

EBWOP

[dakky21]

You missed Tim who is dead but not striked in 1st post. 4 town and one mafia are dead out of 14.

[strike wolf]

I wouldn't say the double condition to my 2nd win condition is unique. I mean there's dakky's one that changes with him. Originally I would have needed to get the thread to 40.

As far as today, as others have said, Dakky isn't a bad fall back Lynch but I DC onto think I want to go for him immediately without looking at others first. So my vote goes to:

vote William

He didn't leave much of an impression with me the first two days but he has gone with a probability argument on Dakky. The problem with probability (and fos to mandy too ) other than the actual game of mafia skewing it is that it is an easy stance for scum to fall back on. It involves little chance with having to make fake reads and the logic is on the surface where it cant be as easily pried apart to reveal scum motivation.

[dakky21]

He didn't leave much of an impression with me the first two days but he has gone with a probability argument on Dakky. The problem with probability (and fos to mandy too ) other than the actual game of mafia skewing it is that it is an easy stance for scum to fall back on. It involves little chance with having to make fake reads and the logic is on the surface where it cant be as easily pried apart to reveal scum motivation.

Don't forget BuJaber came up with probabilities first, random lynch chances etc. and he got lynched for that. William making the same/similar mistake in the same game screams WTF to me, so he is either inexperienced town or another experienced suicidal pokemon with a different alignment. And having him played a dozen of games, I'll go with the latter. That said, I'll follow the wagon and

unvote, vote William

[madmitch]

Letting Strike out of noose,his post sounds reasonable. can always check him out at night if needed. UNVOTE VOTE WILLIAM

[william18]

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later.

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just add that I couldn't use my shot N1, my power started N2. Also, I have 50% chance with each shot to be turned into a SK. I'm still town, though. If I don't pick a target, someone will be randomly chosen.

This guy pretty much claimed to be sk before the game is done, and he killed a townie the night before. He refused to vote rish until he hammered at the very end. I made a quick calculation on what the odds are of dakky really being a town. If we lynch dakky, not only do we get rid of an sk, we get to find out if madmitch's results are accurate. At best dakky is mafia.

I wouldn't say the double condition to my 2nd win condition is unique. I mean there's dakky's one that changes with him. Originally I would have needed to get the thread to 40.

As far as today, as others have said, Dakky isn't a bad fall back Lynch but I DC onto think I want to go for him immediately without looking at others first. So my vote goes to:

vote William

He didn't leave much of an impression with me the first two days but he has gone with a probability argument on Dakky. The problem with probability (and fos to mandy too ) other than the actual game of mafia skewing it is that it is an easy stance for scum to fall back on. It involves little chance with having to make fake reads and the logic is on the surface where it cant be as easily pried apart to reveal scum motivation.

If I have any flaws in my arguments, please point them out. Don't just say because using math doesn't give out tells, all of a sudden im mafia.

[mandalorian2298]

Letting Strike out of noose,his post sounds reasonable. can always check him out at night if needed. UNVOTE VOTE WILLIAM

Bandwagon much?

While I disagree with Strike's logic, at least he gives a reason for his vote. Dakky is, quite understandably, happy to help create a lynching controversy and ease the presure on himself. Mitch just LEAPS on the bandwagon, like he has been lurking all this time, waiting for a chance to vote for someone who isn't dakky. FOS Mitch

[william18]

Letting Strike out of noose,his post sounds reasonable. can always check him out at night if needed. UNVOTE VOTE WILLIAM

Bandwagon much?

While I disagree with Strike's logic, at least he gives a reason for his vote. Dakky is, quite understandably, happy to help create a lynching controversy and ease the presure on himself. Mitch just LEAPS on the bandwagon, like he has been lurking all this time, waiting for a chance to vote for someone who isn't dakky. FOS Mitch

Yeah, this is why lynching dakky is beneficial. Not only is his role simply negative towards town, but we can than assess madmitch depending on how dakky flips, whether we can believe his investigations, or if he is scum. Right now he's claiming to be a flavour cop and the first person he investigated is dead. Town most certainly has a real cop or they are at a disadvantage even against 3 mafia.

[Marashu]

Exactly, but do the math. If there were 4 mafia out of 14 players, that means it's currently 9 alive players, out of which 3 are scum. So currently it is probably 6v3. With me lynched and one NK, that will leave town at 4 vs 3. That means tomorrow is LYLO. If you lynch scum today, even with my bad or good kill, tomorrow you will at worst have 4v2 or 3v2v1 if I morph to SK. I don't think 3 scum are possible in this setup, while 5 could be, but it's probably 4. If it's 5 scum, then we're already at LYLO as lynching me and NK will bring town to 3 people vs 4 scum.

How is 3v2v1 not lylo? Going a step further, tomorrow we either lynch you and mafia wins (2v2), we lynch town and lose (2v2v1), or we lynch mafia (3v1v1) at which point, if you kill mafia and mafia kills town, (or mafia kills you and you kill town) it is, indeed, 2v1 still. If you kill mafia and mafia kills you, then town wins. If you and mafia both kill town, then it's 1v1v1 and town cannot win.

That said, I believe that there are 2 scum remaining, not 3, but I could be wrong on this count. If there are 3 remaining, and we mislynch and also don't lynch dakky, then that means we'd be at 5v3 (or 4v3v1), and if mafia and dakky both hit town, then we lose (2v3v1 or 3v3). If there are 2 remaining, and we lynch one today, then yes, it might be worth keeping dakky around. Now, there are still some protective roles in this game, so all these scenarios can still be changed by either side missing a kill, but it's worrisome about what point we decide it's in town's best interest to lynch dakky - because he's obviously not going to tell us what point he becomes SK.

I can see the case on william - it's easy enough to hide behind numbers - and I'll probably go back and re-read his posts this evening. As for mitch, his interactions with dakky have been strange this game in that neither of them has really gone after the other. From the games I've played with them, usually at least one will do that, even when they're both mafia.

[madmitch]

I am not after Dakky because he is town ,I thought I proved that, anyone who goes after us most be scum

[Marashu]

I am not after Dakky because he is town ,I thought I proved that, anyone who goes after us most be scum

And D1?

Also, it suddenly strikes me as odd that mitch, the most flavourful player, ends up with a flavour cop role. Also, what purpose would that even serve? I mean, character is not alignment indicative, and so far as I can tell, people don't really have a reason to lie about their characters. We know that rish did, but I still don't quite understand why. Was he worried about the scene text, perhaps? If so, that means that there are hints in the scenes after all. If that is the case, though, I think it's something that's ended up happening and not what the mod intended when assigning roles, so it's unlikely that a flavour cop would be a role in this game. (Also, last time I was mafia with mitch, I fakeclaimed flavour cop) Mitch wagoned BuJ and is fastwagoning William, but stayed off the Rishwagon.

Vote madmitch