PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[madmitch]

@ SW, I did not vote for Rish ,I actually thought he was town , I was wrong infact I voted for you but have changed my mind. I believed Dakky is town because of my investigation, when I was told he was probaly more of broken hearted fool than a murderer

[william18]

Since im at -2, and since mitch and dakky already claimed, I'll claim to avoid someone putting me at -1 and risking a hammer.

I'm Seadra, a JOAT with a twist. Instead of getting 1 shot of block,investigate,protect and kill, I'm stuck with the first action I carry out, and I only get 2 more shots of that role after my first.

Night one I didn't do anything, I wanted to preserve the options incase a doctor or cop died night 1, so that I could fill in. Night two, I decided to investigate Aage, since I was confident he was town, so I wanted to do a sanity check. My result came back, saying that mandalorian was town. So unless there is some other role responsible, I think there is a bus driver in this game, that switched aage with dakky. I think busdriver is too powerful of a role for mafia, so I assume he's town. I still have two more investigation shots, so I'd rather not get lynched.

[madmitch]

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ?

[mandalorian2298]

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ?

Cought a glance at the old mirror there, haven't we?

[Marashu]

Night one I didn't do anything, I wanted to preserve the options incase a doctor or cop died night 1, so that I could fill in. Night two, I decided to investigate Aage, since I was confident he was town, so I wanted to do a sanity check. My result came back, saying that mandalorian was town. So unless there is some other role responsible, I think there is a bus driver in this game, that switched aage with dakky. I think busdriver is too powerful of a role for mafia, so I assume he's town. I still have two more investigation shots, so I'd rather not get lynched.

I'm confused. You checked aage, got a result for mandy, and think that aage and dakky were swapped?

@aage - it's not so much that I think it strange that flavour guy gets flavour role, it's that the flavour role exists in the first place.
Unvote - I'm ok with town controlling dakky's shots, but he'll need to be lynched eventually. Well, maybe. If he shoots scum tonight and we lynch scum today, then by my count town wins, and he doesn't flip to SK (and it's a bit unreliable, but so long as 2 people die at night, that means there's still mafia around).

[william18]

Opps, that was a typo. I meant to say, I think mandy and aage were switched. Not dakky.

[madmitch]

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ?

Cought a glance at the old mirror there, haven't we?

yep and I cracked it

[Marashu]

@william - what's your 2WC?

[william18]

@william - what's your 2WC?

My 2wc was to survive to have the game last to day 6. I'm assuming this is to incentivise picking doctor over cop.

[william18]

I don't consider his role a threat to town right now. It's kill power we can enlist.
Since the worst thing that could happen is he shoots another town, I suggest we limit those chances. Help him find a target if you must.

I don't really agree with that. And the more I thought about the differences between lynching dakky vs not lynching him, the more interesting it got. So im gonna break it down, case by case.

If we let dakky live, someone else gets lynched. That means we either lynch a town, or a mafia.

Dakky Lives

Lynch Mafia: This is an excellent situation
Case 1: Dakky kills the last mafia, and doesn't turn into sk. Town wins.
Case 2: Dakky kills mafia, but game doesn't end. We don't know whether dakky is sk, or if there are more mafia, or other third parties.
Case 3: Dakky and mafia both kill town, not good. We don't know if dakky is sk by now.
Case 4: Only one town dies. We aren't sure if dakky or mafia were stopped. We will have to entirely trust dakky to be truthful. We don't know if dakky is sk by now.
Case 5: Dakky is killed, and kills town.
Case 6: Dakky is killed, and he kills mafia
Case 7: Only mafia gets killed, dakky got one, and mafia was roleblocked. We don't know if dakky is sk by now.

Lynch Town: This is bad, but always a possibility. Now we are at best 6v2. Lets break up the cases depending on the outcomes.
Case 8: Mafia and Dakky both kill town: we don't know if dakky is still town
Case 9: Only one town is killed: not sure if dakky or mafia were blocked, we don't know if dakky is still town
Case 10: Mafia and town are both killed: Dakky got one. We don't know if he is still town.
Case 11: Mafia kills dakky, dakky kills town.
Case 12: Mafia kills dakky, dakky kills mafia.
Case 13: Only mafia die, dakky got one, and mafia got roleblocked.

Out of these first 13 cases, the only one where dakky won't be killed/lynched is case one, where he wins the game outright. Even if he kills mafia, he will most likely be lynched day 4. We can't really trust him, or have a cop investigate him every night. As long as dakky is still alive, we can not be sure if all other town threats are gone, and its just him, or if there are others left and he is still town.

If dakky is lynched he is either:
Case 14: Town
Case 15: Mafia
Case 16: Sk

[william18]

About my 2wc, I don't have to survive to day 6, only to have the game last that long. My post was unclear about that.

[HotShot53]

Aage's long post makes a lot of sense... I agree, if he's town, he's town MVP.

I will give my impressions of the people we have left. I don't have time to do a full re-read of everything (and with 70 active games going on with the CC Olympics I probably won't any time soon), so I figured impressions are better than waiting forever.

Player List:
madmitch - claimed role cop. If dakky is scum, is probably scum also, otherwise is probably town. I'd lean town for now
dakky21 - claimed mandatory vig that has a good chance of changing into a SK. Probably town at this point, but should be lynched eventually if the game goes on
Marashu - went after mitch, when I pointed out his illogical approach he switched to dakky, After aage's post unvotes. Was part of the rish lynch. I'm neutral on him for now - today seems scummy, but voting rish was good, unless he was busing a teammate.
HotShot53 - Me, of course I'm town.
mandalorian2298 - Has made some logical posts. Was on the rish lynch. Leaning town for now
william18 - Has been in the shadows a bit, but has made sense when he posts. Trying to lead the dakky lynch today. I'm neutral for now
Army of GOD - I really don't remember what he's posted... did a quick sort by author, and he really hasn't posted much. Hammered BuJ day 1, and hasn't voted since then. Seems to be scummarizing and staying below the surface to me... I'll lean scum on him
aage - started the rish lynch, made a very logical post today... about as town as you can get without an investigation.
strike wolf - got IB to die with a post restriction, says he doesn't plan to use them again. Nothing much else jumping out right now... neutral.

Well, after that summary... AoG is the only one that I'm currently leaning scum on, so I will vote Army of GOD. One of my neutral reads is probably his scum buddy.

[dakky21]

Well, after that summary... AoG is the only one that I'm currently leaning scum on, so I will vote Army of GOD. One of my neutral reads is probably his scum buddy.

Voting the inactive isn't a perfect solution here. I'd rather have him replaced and hear some new thoughts. Lynching him won't reveal anything new, while lynching me would... at least you'd know I said the truth and then you'd know who to look at. So your vote "for the sake of voting" looks scummy to me, especially when you say I should be lynched anyway as the game goes on. Why choose someone inactive over active lynchee? Looks like you gave your vote just to stay out of the fray.

[HotShot53]

Well, after that summary... AoG is the only one that I'm currently leaning scum on, so I will vote Army of GOD. One of my neutral reads is probably his scum buddy.

Voting the inactive isn't a perfect solution here. I'd rather have him replaced and hear some new thoughts. Lynching him won't reveal anything new, while lynching me would... at least you'd know I said the truth and then you'd know who to look at. So your vote "for the sake of voting" looks scummy to me, especially when you say I should be lynched anyway as the game goes on. Why choose someone inactive over active lynchee? Looks like you gave your vote just to stay out of the fray.

He's not inactive enough to be replaced, he posts once in a while... so I don't think replacement is an option now. He's inactive enough to be scummarizing and trying to stay out of everything though, and is completely non-helpful to town.

I'm not voting just for the sake of voting, I'm voting to start a discussion on someone who I think has been hiding in the weeds and skating by. I'm not opposed to your lynch as a future SK, but I agree with Aage that it might not be the right time yet.

[mandalorian2298]

Well, after that summary... AoG is the only one that I'm currently leaning scum on, so I will vote Army of GOD. One of my neutral reads is probably his scum buddy.

Voting the inactive isn't a perfect solution here. I'd rather have him replaced and hear some new thoughts. Lynching him won't reveal anything new, while lynching me would... at least you'd know I said the truth and then you'd know who to look at. So your vote "for the sake of voting" looks scummy to me, especially when you say I should be lynched anyway as the game goes on. Why choose someone inactive over active lynchee? Looks like you gave your vote just to stay out of the fray.

I agree, voting an inactive isn't going to tell us much at this point.

One thing that I just realized hasn't been raised yet: dakky, do you realize that your chances to win if we lynch you today while you are still Townie are much better then when you become SK?

The other thing, which falls into the realm of hard core meta-gaming: Between jester, killer PRs and might-morphing-maybe-SK, I am beginning to think that DoomYoshi was in a Jigsaw kind of mood while he was comming up with this setup. If this is so, wouldn't it be plausable that he has attached another effect to dakky's transformation, like adding Nuke or PGO powers to dakky once he turns. I'm just saying.

BTW, this whole situation with me wanting to lynch dakky because of his morphood and all of you guys refusing to do it because he is Townie reminds me of one of my favorite 'Simpsons' scenes

[dakky21]

One thing that I just realized hasn't been raised yet: dakky, do you realize that your chances to win if we lynch you today while you are still Townie are much better then when you become SK?

You DO NOT know if I will become SK and neither do I know. Being so sure that I will, I may have to agree it's best to lynch me today then. But as I said probability isn't 75%, it's 50% every night. I might end this game as town. SO YES, lynch me now to win with town (but town won't win) or let me live and we'll see how it turns out.

The other thing, which falls into the realm of hard core meta-gaming: Between jester, killer PRs and might-morphing-maybe-SK, I am beginning to think that DoomYoshi was in a Jigsaw kind of mood while he was comming up with this setup. If this is so, wouldn't it be plausable that he has attached another effect to dakky's transformation, like adding Nuke or PGO powers to dakky once he turns. I'm just saying.

So far he did not. I'd know that from role PM I guess.

BTW, this whole situation with me wanting to lynch dakky because of his morphood and all of you guys refusing to do it because he is Townie reminds me of one of my favorite 'Simpsons' scenes

This whole situation with you wanting to lynch me reminds me of one of my favorite 'Monty Python' scenes... this one... practically the same situation ongoing here.

[mandalorian2298]

One thing that I just realized hasn't been raised yet: dakky, do you realize that your chances to win if we lynch you today while you are still Townie are much better then when you become SK?

You DO NOT know if I will become SK and neither do I know. Being so sure that I will, I may have to agree it's best to lynch me today then. But as I said probability isn't 75%, it's 50% every night. I might end this game as town. SO YES, lynch me now to win with town (but town won't win) or let me live and we'll see how it turns out.

I might end this game as a lottery winner. Free private jet rides for each member of the dakky bandwagon!

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

BTW, this whole situation with me wanting to lynch dakky because of his morphood and all of you guys refusing to do it because he is Townie reminds me of one of my favorite 'Simpsons' scenes

This whole situation with you wanting to lynch me reminds me of one of my favorite 'Monty Python' scenes... this one... practically the same situation ongoing here.

Great scene! May we build a bridge out of you to prove your innocence?

[dakky21]

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

Again and again, I will ask you: If you flip the coin and 9 times in a row get the head, what is the chance 10th time it will flip head again? The only mathematical truth is - 50%. You're hiding behind numbers just like William is.

[madmitch]

If I remember right ,Aage started this whole VIG thing, and I am still wondering how he knew that ? seems scummy to me, Will and Mandy are hiding behind numbers some make sense but I think it is just a diversion, I called Will and Marashu out and neither has yet denied my claim.AOG hasn't posted for a while so I am not to sure about him? but I would not vote for him for that reason. Hot Shot you should vote for someone else for now, I am still sticking with William he seems the scummiest so far.

[william18]

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

Again and again, I will ask you: If you flip the coin and 9 times in a row get the head, what is the chance 10th time it will flip head again? The only mathematical truth is - 50%. You're hiding behind numbers just like William is.

Honestly dakky, everytime you try to 'correct' us on probability, I cringe. Everything mandalorian said is right. His approximation is correct, and that is indeed how people calculate odds in the real world. The odds of you staying town decrease every night, since it is less and less likely to win consecutive coin flips. If you can't even concede to that being intuitively true, than you are not being very forthright with your role and how dangerous it is to town.

[HotShot53]

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

Again and again, I will ask you: If you flip the coin and 9 times in a row get the head, what is the chance 10th time it will flip head again? The only mathematical truth is - 50%. You're hiding behind numbers just like William is.

The flaw with your thinking dakky is that you are assuming the first 9 flips are heads... in that case, yes, the 10th time will be 50-50 chance still. However, at this point, we don't know that the next few flips will be heads... so the odds of either the next or the second flip to be tails is 75% because you need both flips to be heads for it not to happen - 50% (tails) chance of the first flip, plus 50% (heads) x 50% (then tails) = 25% for the second flip = 75% overall. If you add a third night it's + 50% (heads) x 50% (heads) x 50% (tails) = 12.5%, plus the first two nights that we still don't know the results of at this point, and it's 87.5% that at least one of the next three nights comes up tails.

[william18]

If I remember right ,Aage started this whole VIG thing, and I am still wondering how he knew that ? seems scummy to me, Will and Mandy are hiding behind numbers some make sense but I think it is just a diversion, I called Will and Marashu out and neither has yet denied my claim.AOG hasn't posted for a while so I am not to sure about him? but I would not vote for him for that reason. Hot Shot you should vote for someone else for now, I am still sticking with William he seems the scummiest so far.

I have an investigative role, and you still want to lynch me over a a vig/sk? Lynching dakky answers so manys questions. It can confirm or deny your role, it can confirm or deny if he is sk or mafia. If he really is an sk, then this tells the roleblocker he targeted mafia or the doctor that they stopped a kill. Killing dakky is an all around a safer option since he's more likely to kill town than mafia. Also, with dakky still alive, we can never be sure that he is still town, or even that all other town threats at eliminated until the mod declares it. I'm baffled that your still voting me, unless of course you don't want dakky to flip, since your role is not authentic?

[Marashu]

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

Again and again, I will ask you: If you flip the coin and 9 times in a row get the head, what is the chance 10th time it will flip head again? The only mathematical truth is - 50%. You're hiding behind numbers just like William is.

You are misunderstanding the argument, or purposefully misrepresenting it. Right now the coin has been flipped once. What are the odds the next 9 flips will all be heads? I promise you, the mathematical truth is not 50%.

Mitch, your "calling me out" seems to be that I am mafia because I wanted dakky lynched even though he is town for now. His continued presence is a threat to town. He can be useful for now, but may become a threat to town. Wanting to prevent a threat to town is not scummy. Dakky must be confident that if he flips to sk, he can still somehow win.

William, it makes sense that you want dakky lynched, since his role makes your 2wc tougher. Your cases do not include dakky and mafia both being blocked, though.
Fp'd by hotshot, william

[mandalorian2298]

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable industry.

Again and again, I will ask you: If you flip the coin and 9 times in a row get the head, what is the chance 10th time it will flip head again? The only mathematical truth is - 50%. You're hiding behind numbers just like William is.

That is not the case here. What are the chances that if you flip the coin twice you get tails at least once? 75% Thrice? 87.5%

[aage]

If there's a busdriver it's gonna make dealing with Dakky's role really complicated. I'm gonna reread for a bit to see if I can come up with anything.


The whole discussion around Dakky is getting silly, though. You're all just repeating the same arguments over and over and over and it's getting nowhere. Mandy and William, quit your crusade against Dakky, we know your views by now, you're not helping anyone.