Power Role Draft Mafia - Town Wins!

[ghostly447]

I felt he was scummy enough due to inactivity that he could at least be worth it. No one would think of him as a potential goon for a nk so I wanted to be sure. From past games I think Mafia can send anyone for the kill and won't consider anyone who looks scummy that day.

[nagerous]

Well I have no evidence to the contrary as to what ghostly has claimed. My vote stays though - most likely a mafia roleblocker and that is illustrated by his dogged determination to a roleblock me again despite there having been two deaths last night, something a town roleblocker surely in their right frame of mind would do. Instead it seems that his mafia buddies probably advised him to roleblock me, knowing that I am a threat to their long-term survival. It doesn't really make sense relating to his argument on me, which I was voting his pal shield, who he 'believed' was town as illustrated by his OMGUS vote on me, when shield came out mafia then he would've turned his whole thought process on its head and decided instead that I was throwing shield under the bus, because by his logic he has seen this happen before. So either he is mafia trying to desperately pursue an incredibly poor lead in a last ditch attempt to save his skin or he is a townie with a seriously warped and one-tracked approach to scum-hunting to the point of obsession by roleblocking the same guy he did the night before despite there being 2 deaths the previous night. I am thinking the former.

[everywhere116]

Well I have no evidence to the contrary as to what ghostly has claimed.

Neither do I, with the information I have at least. Think we should get him to post his list?

[dazza2008]

Well I have no evidence to the contrary as to what ghostly has claimed.

Neither do I, with the information I have at least. Think we should get him to post his list?

I think he should post it.

[nagerous]

Well I have no evidence to the contrary as to what ghostly has claimed.

Neither do I, with the information I have at least. Think we should get him to post his list?

I don't see why not.

[drunkmonkey]

I think every forced claim should come with a list in this setup.

[pmchugh]

Would I connect myself to him? Your defense is as strong as mine. I can't tell you if you would, I have seen scum throw scum under the bus being the head of the case.

You've seen that done on day 1 before? I'd like to see where. I would say you are right but not for a day 1. Maybe in the later stages when someone is obviously been caught as scum.

OK so this is why you decided to bail out? Honestly I would not hesitate to bus a partner in this setup on day 1 and most set-ups for that matter.

I would like a list claim before I decide whether or not to lynch.

[ghostly447]

Well I have no evidence to the contrary as to what ghostly has claimed. My vote stays though - most likely a mafia roleblocker and that is illustrated by his dogged determination to a roleblock me again despite there having been two deaths last night, something a town roleblocker surely in their right frame of mind would do. Instead it seems that his mafia buddies probably advised him to roleblock me, knowing that I am a threat to their long-term survival. It doesn't really make sense relating to his argument on me, which I was voting his pal shield, who he 'believed' was town as illustrated by his OMGUS vote on me, when shield came out mafia then he would've turned his whole thought process on its head and decided instead that I was throwing shield under the bus, because by his logic he has seen this happen before. So either he is mafia trying to desperately pursue an incredibly poor lead in a last ditch attempt to save his skin or he is a townie with a seriously warped and one-tracked approach to scum-hunting to the point of obsession by roleblocking the same guy he did the night before despite there being 2 deaths the previous night. I am thinking the former.

I have been known to pursue someone I believe is mafia for RL Weeks Nag. And in 2 games I was in, I can promise you it didnt fail me. Fire and Ice Mafia, I led the lynch on both the fire mafia, and I am waiting for day results, but I think we got the last Ice Mafia due to me heading a case on him the past 2 game days. Your thought has no weight, it is sometimes my selected gameplay technique, and it normally treats me well. The other name I will not yet expose to keep from ruining that game so people wont take my words into serious consideration.

Would I connect myself to him? Your defense is as strong as mine. I can't tell you if you would, I have seen scum throw scum under the bus being the head of the case.

You've seen that done on day 1 before? I'd like to see where. I would say you are right but not for a day 1. Maybe in the later stages when someone is obviously been caught as scum.

OK so this is why you decided to bail out? Honestly I would not hesitate to bus a partner in this setup on day 1 and most set-ups for that matter.

I would like a list claim before I decide whether or not to lynch.

Yes it is PMC. I am still considered a noob in some aspects. I wanted to make sure no game was tampered with due to my defense in this game.

Now, my roleclaim. This wont help me any. In my defense, I didnt know what a commuter was, but I dont think that quite matters.. After I am lynched, I just ask that everyone reviews everything that has led to my death, because honestly, I feel there are 2+ scum on my lynch. I just hope some others can see it from my perspective.

1st - cop
2nd - roleblocker
3rd - vigilante
4th - JOAT
5th - doctor
6th - bomb
7th - busdriver
8th - tracker
9th - watcher
10th - doublevoter
11th - 1-shot governor
12th - inventor
13th - mason
14th - commuter
15th - loved person

[pmchugh]

Why did you have roleblocker so high?

Also you missed out bulletproof from your list. Both me and shield missed it too so I checked my pm and it looks like rodion left it out of his example.

[ghostly447]

Why did you have roleblocker so high?

Also you missed out bulletproof from your list. Both me and shield missed it too so I checked my pm and it looks like rodion left it out of his example.

Yeah, I rearranged based on his ex list. lol.

I had roleblocker so high because normally I feel strongly about certain players after days go by, so I normally take the opportunity to role block them (normally once unless they give off more scum vibes the next day) to make sure I can somewhat rule them out. Plus it is one that I dont believe I have ever played with, so I wanted to give it a try and see if I could enjoy myself with it. I always feel that some players dont use it right at certain times, so I knew if I got it I could at least see if my thoughts would do the town better. So, mainly I had the roles where I could kill a suspected mafia, investigate them, or something of that sort, you know what I mean? Cop, Vig, JOAT, etc were all at the top for me. And I know it sounds scummy, but I feel that in many other hands, some of these roles would be abused even if in towns hands.

[pmchugh]

Why did you have roleblocker so high?

Also you missed out bulletproof from your list. Both me and shield missed it too so I checked my pm and it looks like rodion left it out of his example.

Yeah, I rearranged based on his ex list. lol.

I had roleblocker so high because normally I feel strongly about certain players after days go by, so I normally take the opportunity to role block them (normally once unless they give off more scum vibes the next day) to make sure I can somewhat rule them out. Plus it is one that I dont believe I have ever played with, so I wanted to give it a try and see if I could enjoy myself with it. I always feel that some players dont use it right at certain times, so I knew if I got it I could at least see if my thoughts would do the town better. So, mainly I had the roles where I could kill a suspected mafia, investigate them, or something of that sort, you know what I mean? Cop, Vig, JOAT, etc were all at the top for me. And I know it sounds scummy, but I feel that in many other hands, some of these roles would be abused even if in towns hands.

That kinda contradicts itself. To be honest the last few posts you have town told but you dug yourself such a deep hole day 1.

I am going to reread and re-evaluate. Chances are you will still be lynched as it gives best info and high chances, so if you really are town then out everything now before you die. Town-tells, fos's, any cases you are sitting on with less information. If you are maf, be careful you don't slip up if you try this

[ghostly447]

Why did you have roleblocker so high?

Also you missed out bulletproof from your list. Both me and shield missed it too so I checked my pm and it looks like rodion left it out of his example.

Yeah, I rearranged based on his ex list. lol.

I had roleblocker so high because normally I feel strongly about certain players after days go by, so I normally take the opportunity to role block them (normally once unless they give off more scum vibes the next day) to make sure I can somewhat rule them out. Plus it is one that I dont believe I have ever played with, so I wanted to give it a try and see if I could enjoy myself with it. I always feel that some players dont use it right at certain times, so I knew if I got it I could at least see if my thoughts would do the town better. So, mainly I had the roles where I could kill a suspected mafia, investigate them, or something of that sort, you know what I mean? Cop, Vig, JOAT, etc were all at the top for me. And I know it sounds scummy, but I feel that in many other hands, some of these roles would be abused even if in towns hands.

That kinda contradicts itself. To be honest the last few posts you have town told but you dug yourself such a deep hole day 1.

I am going to reread and re-evaluate. Chances are you will still be lynched as it gives best info and high chances, so if you really are town then out everything now before you die. Town-tells, fos's, any cases you are sitting on with less information. If you are maf, be careful you don't slip up if you try this

I noticed once I said it. Its alright though in my opinion. Normally I would have gone back and changed it to defend, or investigate given whichever role I was referring to, but I figured I was a dead man anyways.

I just want you to take it into consideration. 2 or 3 Night Kills last night. There is probably another role out there for a mafia kill, unless our vig/JOAT/whatever else felt they knew who a mafia was. You lynch me, they get 2-3 more kills tonight, they still have 3 (yes I am inferring that I am not mafia, because I am trying to help town here) and that brings it to about 8, 9 at best with 3 being mafia. Your chances are slimming.

As my parting thoughts, I am going to gather a list of people I personally fell are connected. Do not call it OMGUS, I have had some of these thoughts since the end of D1. I will be back with that.

[pmchugh]

unvote to prevent hammer before he outs tells.

[everywhere116]

I just want you to take it into consideration. 2 or 3 Night Kills last night. There is probably another role out there for a mafia kill, unless our vig/JOAT/whatever else felt they knew who a mafia was. You lynch me, they get 2-3 more kills tonight, they still have 3 (yes I am inferring that I am not mafia, because I am trying to help town here) and that brings it to about 8, 9 at best with 3 being mafia. Your chances are slimming.

Non sequitur. Telling us the dangers of lynching a townie does nothing to address the question of whether or not you are one. It's a red herring.

[ghostly447]

My personal opinion on evaluation.

1. everywhere116 - May be scum. Seems to hop on wagons quickly. Tries to speed up my lynch.
2. ghostly447 - ...
3. Some7hingCLEVER - Town to me. Its not because he sided with me, its just because he doesnt seem scummy. DONT LET PMC LYNCH HIM THINKING THERE IS A CONNECTION. I HAVE NO CONNECTION TO HIM, AND IF IT TAKES MY LYNCH TO PROVE THAT, SO BE IT.
4. pmchugh - Scummy. I have not felt well about him since we started.
5. edocsil - Starting to give me scum vibes. Nothing confirmed. He didnt give any new input when jumping on my wagon.
6. nagerous - Scummy from Post 3 or so onward. Not very active, and when he is active he just restates stuff because he is nearly forced on. I dont like how he over reacted, and was just trying to clear himself in his last post against me by effectively trying to speed up my lynch in saying I am getting tunnel visioned.
7. dazza2008 - Read about Nags over reaction. Same goes for dazza. Scummy to me.
9. Djfireside - I havent felt any scum vibes from dj. I dont think he has been very active from what I remember.
10. spiesr - Im not sure about spiesr. Half of his posts ring scum to me, half dont.
11. MoB Deadly - Read about everywhere.
12. soundman - Not sure.
13. alt1978 - Town to me.

Well, thats a lot of people ringing scummy, but the top 5 for me are pmc, nag, dazza, spiesr, and edoc. not in that particular order. The ones who seem most connected in my opinion are nag and dazza.

Thats about all I can give now. I await my fate, and hope this benefits the town .

fp by pmc and everywhere.

This is what I am talking about with everywhere, he seems to jump in and say completely irrelevant crap to speed up my lynch. It just doesnt seem town to me. Everywhere, it was an add on to serve as an advisory so that when I am lynched, since it will more than likely happen, town realizes that they only have a max of 2 days (inferring I am town again.).

[everywhere116]

This is what I am talking about with everywhere, he seems to jump in and say completely irrelevant crap to speed up my lynch. It just doesnt seem town to me. Everywhere, it was an add on to serve as an advisory so that when I am lynched, since it will more than likely happen, town realizes that they only have a max of 2 days (inferring I am town again.).

So that wasn't a defense? Does this mean you've given up?

[ghostly447]

This is what I am talking about with everywhere, he seems to jump in and say completely irrelevant crap to speed up my lynch. It just doesnt seem town to me. Everywhere, it was an add on to serve as an advisory so that when I am lynched, since it will more than likely happen, town realizes that they only have a max of 2 days (inferring I am town again.).

So that wasn't a defense? Does this mean you've given up?

I havent quite given up hope that someone will be able to pick something out and prove my innocence, but I have somewhat given up that people dont see my thoughts clearly. I could probably name 5 major slips right now, but because of me being the most likely lynch today, no one would see it as a slip. So, I am hoping someone without too clouded of judgment will find something to defend me with from what I have defended myself with. Because somehow this whole case started by connecting me, SG7, and CLEVER, and I can promise you that without my pointing it out while I am still alive, the same people would be on a CLEVER wagon D3, and town would follow that one too, because all they would say is "Maybe we caught the wrong connection" and probably convince the town that they were correct.

[pmchugh]

I'd like to note that Raigan managed to get doc and he was 10th in the list

I think there is a high probability that all the mafia are above me in the list. I really need a re-read though before I commit to freeing ghostly.

[everywhere116]

I think there is a high probability that all the mafia are above me in the list.

Why is that?

[ghostly447]

I think there is a high probability that all the mafia are above me in the list.

Why is that?

Probably the roles pmc requested in the order. If pmc got low on his request (I am not sure, I didnt check before posting) then there is a good possibility that the mafia would go for the better roles. pmc is more experienced than me, so I would trust that this is probably why, and he probably had his role choices properly ordered.

[spiesr]

I havent quite given up hope that someone will be able to pick something out and prove my innocence, but I have somewhat given up that people dont see my thoughts clearly. I could probably name 5 major slips right now, but because of me being the most likely lynch today, no one would see it as a slip. So, I am hoping someone without too clouded of judgment will find something to defend me with from what I have defended myself with. Because somehow this whole case started by connecting me, SG7, and CLEVER, and I can promise you that without my pointing it out while I am still alive, the same people would be on a CLEVER wagon D3, and town would follow that one too, because all they would say is "Maybe we caught the wrong connection" and probably convince the town that they were correct.

If you turn out to be town, why would we ignore anything you said after you died?

[ghostly447]

I havent quite given up hope that someone will be able to pick something out and prove my innocence, but I have somewhat given up that people dont see my thoughts clearly. I could probably name 5 major slips right now, but because of me being the most likely lynch today, no one would see it as a slip. So, I am hoping someone without too clouded of judgment will find something to defend me with from what I have defended myself with. Because somehow this whole case started by connecting me, SG7, and CLEVER, and I can promise you that without my pointing it out while I am still alive, the same people would be on a CLEVER wagon D3, and town would follow that one too, because all they would say is "Maybe we caught the wrong connection" and probably convince the town that they were correct.

If you turn out to be town, why would we ignore anything you said after you died?

If Mafia got the first really good case after planning it during the night, then most of the town would want to follow it to see where it got them. Hopefully it would get to a town only role with no counterclaim so that the town would have a little bit to be able to rule out.

[alt1978]

It's interesting to me that Ghostly got his second choice despite picking 14th. I was convinced in my mind someone was going to counter claim him or maybe role-blocker really wasn't that high on his list. With Raigan picking 10th and getting doctor...and ghostly picking 14th and getting role blocker...that's interesting. PMC is in good position on the draft order list to make comment on what it all means perhaps...but it would be nice to hear from Spiesr as well.
Also, Shield took ninja at 15 and with him being mafia...that seems like it would have been in at least the upper half of his list. (I also think you have to throw out the list that shield posted...first of all because it seemed bogus...secondly because he was mafia). MOB and Dazza also claimed (day one) to have gotten their first picks (and obviously myself as well through the nature of being first). My conclusion from this...is that a lot of folks wanted different things and got close to what they wanted.
I was highly suspicious of ghostly for a lot of the reasons that have been posted by others...but I think he has done a good job defending himself. Was it ever decided or determined if the mafia was able to consult on their numbers before drafting?

On Page 6 Rodion posted this note:

Top
Re: Power Role Draft Mafia (15/15) - Day 1

Postby Rodion on Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:57 pm

spiesr wrote:Something I just thought of. Rodion, can you tell us if the mafia players were allowed to communicate with each other during the role selection phase?

Yes, they were allowed.

My interpretation of this was that mafia would have been able to consult on number choice as well...others made that same conclusion in the aftermath but I never saw that part of it mod-confirmed. It's a small...maybe decided point...but if mafia was allowed to communicate...and coordinate number choice...why would two mafia members choose the #7? Shield chose seven...so I don't really get why ghostly would choose #7. First of all...there would be NO incentive to be next to each other...because then you couldn't learn anything from the lists. Secondly...mafia would want the power roles more than anything in my opinion. Doubling up on a number automatically sends you to the back of Rodion's draft...there is no way to get first pick or even an upper half pick if you double up a number.

At the end of the day...I buy ghostly's story. I hate that he tried to duck out of the game....that still rings bad in my ears...but if mafia could communicate during role selection phase...I just can't imagine them choosing 7 twice. The numbers are a better tell than ghostly's defense...and in this case i just can't get past the numbers. Maybe that's reading too much into it...maybe i'm nieve and ghostly and the mafia snookered me...but for now (unless someone has something stronger or I'm wrong about mafia being able to coordinate numbers) I can't vote for ghostly.

Alt1978 – 11
MoB – 14
Djfireside – 17
Soundman – 22
Nagerous - 6
Dazza – 6
Somethingclever – 9
Edocsil – 9
Pmchugh – 1
Ragian – 1
Freezie – 1
Spiesr – 7
Everywhere – 7
Ghostly447 – 7
Shield – 7

[everywhere116]

The numbers Mason...WHAT DO THEY MEAN!!!!!


I had not considered the placement of the numbers. It was established that the scum were able to talk before sending their lists, and thus would probably pick different numbers. Probably, because it was suggest that they could then have two of their members pick the same number to throw off people who believed that the scum would follow a unique-number pattern.....It's very WIFOMy, to say the least.

[spiesr]

It's interesting to me that Ghostly got his second choice despite picking 14th. I was convinced in my mind someone was going to counter claim him or maybe role-blocker really wasn't that high on his list. With Raigan picking 10th and getting doctor...and ghostly picking 14th and getting role blocker...that's interesting. PMC is in good position on the draft order list to make comment on what it all means perhaps...but it would be nice to hear from Spiesr as well.

Well, I got my first pick even with 12 place, so I can't shed any light on what role were chosen other than that nobody ahead of me picked mine.

My conclusion from this...is that a lot of folks wanted different things and got close to what they wanted.

That does seem to be the case.

My interpretation of this was that mafia would have been able to consult on number choice as well...others made that same conclusion in the aftermath but I never saw that part of it mod-confirmed. It's a small...maybe decided point...but if mafia was allowed to communicate...and coordinate number choice...why would two mafia members choose the #7? Shield chose seven...so I don't really get why ghostly would choose #7. First of all...there would be NO incentive to be next to each other...because then you couldn't learn anything from the lists. Secondly...mafia would want the power roles more than anything in my opinion. Doubling up on a number automatically sends you to the back of Rodion's draft...there is no way to get first pick or even an upper half pick if you double up a number.

This is certainly a point that we need to consider to some extent. Assuming the scum bothered to communicate what numbers they would be choosing (and that nobody fucked it up by accidentally forgetting and sending in the wrong number) then why would scum members pick the same number when it would lower their draft position? The only real reason I can think of is the WIFOMy logic where they anticipated this line of reasoning and wanted to use it to their advantage. One quick thing we should not about this, Shield had the mafia only role of Ninja. If the scum were actively desiring roles such as these then they wouldn't need to be at the top of the list to acquire them. Town can't take these roles, so the scum can grab them just as easily from any position. So, if they wanted a member to have one of these roles, they could send that member to the bottom of the draft without compromising anything.
Another point, at this point in time we don't really know what sort of logic the scum were using in regards to what they were trying to get. On one hand, grabbing the most powerful roles boosts their strength, either directly or indirectly by keeping them out of town hands where they could hinder the scum. The flip side to that, is that the players who got the best roles will attract a lot of attention. In a situation where who has roles has been exposed to at least a limited extent, then many players will naturally expect the most important/powerful roles to be the most likely targets for scum to kill. If, at least some of, the scum members get non-top-tier roles then they avoid having to explain why they haven't been night killed if they are forced into a situation where they have claimed but not lynched. So maybe they would be okay with at least some members being lower in the draft in order to work that angle?
Anyhow, while the numbers chosen certainly aren't an end all be all, they do definitely remain something that we should take into consideration when looking at lynches.