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Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:07 am
by supercram
Senfive wrote:wicked wrote:I think a no lynch helps us just b/c odds are we'll lynch a townie today by just guessing with no info. sure we can talk, but with no info to share about our PM's, what are we going to say? "Hi, I'm a townie, how about you?"
I just did the math. We have 2 options
Option #1. we have a 25% of lynching Scum today. With a 30% chance on Day 2.
Option #2 we have a 0% of lynching Scum if you no vote. Also giving up a townie in the process at night. which will leave us with the odds 3/11 which is a 27.3% chance of lynching Scum on Day 2, still with little info to go on but our gut feelings. Odds don't improve drasticly if we no vote.
Ok assuming the said cop investigates someone during the night, who is to say that you won't lynch him to find out if he is telling the truth? You did in the last game.
Please correct me anyone if my logic is flawed.
don't try to explain that to wicked. she doesn't understand statistics.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:09 am
by supercram
Fircoal wrote:supercram wrote:come on page 6!!!
Cram you spam.
Vote: Superspam I mean
Vote: Supercram
fircoal, that is a dumb vote, unless you are mafia.
if you are mafia, it's smart. everyone hates a spammer. you should have no problem rallying people to this one. then you get a kill during the day.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:10 am
by Fircoal
supercram wrote:Fircoal wrote:supercram wrote:come on page 6!!!
Cram you spam.
Vote: Superspam I mean
Vote: Supercram
fircoal, that is a dumb vote, unless you are mafia.
if you are mafia, it's smart. everyone hates a spammer. you should have no problem rallying people to this one. then you get a kill during the day.
relax, it's just a random vote, I don't think your mafia, I just need to reason to vote.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:12 am
by Fircoal
also, spam doesn't help the town either, it makes them, have to look farther, for good info.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:19 am
by supercram
you're right we have LOADS of good info right now.
thanks teach, i'll keep it in mind.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:25 am
by Fircoal
supercram wrote:you're right we have LOADS of good info right now.
thanks teach, i'll keep it in mind.
I know we don't. JUST POINTING OUT FACTS!
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:27 am
by supercram
Fircoal wrote:supercram wrote:you're right we have LOADS of good info right now.
thanks teach, i'll keep it in mind.
I know we don't. JUST POINTING OUT FACTS!
chill my brutha, i get what you're saying. as info increases, spam will decrease i promise. just trying to draw people in is all.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:30 am
by wicked
good points Sen, but hopefully the cop wouldn't come out and claim so early!!!
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:32 am
by wicked
well I think everyone has at least posted once, except RK. based on his blunders in other games, if he's not active in this one, he gets my vote.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:34 am
by Fircoal
I don't think everybody in this game has yet.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:35 am
by supercram
haven't heard from
6. omg_risk –
11. reverend_kyle –
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:36 am
by wicked
I stand corrected! omg-risk hasn't posted either.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:38 am
by AK_iceman
wicked wrote:based on his blunders in other games he gets my vote.
Dont upset Wicked in a Mafia game, she never lets you forget it.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:40 am
by supercram
wicked wrote:thanks supercram, for being helpful.
oh no worries, just doing my job.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:40 am
by wicked
lol! not so! or else my first vote would've been for YOU or MACH.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:55 am
by Incandenza
so let's see what our latecomers have to say.... then it'll be time to break out the dartboard or the dice or the voodoo chicken bones or however else one makes a decision with practically nothing to go on
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:04 am
by autoload
Vote Count:
2 wicked (Senfive, supercram)
1 omg_risk (UCAbears)
1 Master Bush (Machiavelli)
1 UCAbears (dcowboys055)
1 Machiavelli (Master Bush)
1 supercram (Fircoal)
1 No Lynch (wicked)
4 Not Voting (Incandenza, omg_risk, HoussamTheGreat, reverend_kyle,)
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch!
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:13 am
by Senfive
autoload wrote:Vote Count:
2 wicked (Senfive, supercram)
1 omg_risk (UCAbears)
1 Master Bush (Machiavelli)
1 UCAbears (dcowboys055)
1 Machiavelli (Master Bush)
1 supercram (Fircoal)
1 No Lynch (wicked)
4 Not Voting (Incandenza, omg_risk, HoussamTheGreat, reverend_kyle,)
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch!
Wicked still voting no lynch even after what I posted?
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:14 am
by wicked
well I typically don't change my vote unless I have someone new to vote for, to make it easier on the mod. Right now, I'm planning on voting for one of the two stragglers.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:15 am
by supercram
Senfive wrote:
Wicked still voting no lynch even after what I posted?
i'm telling you man. she doesn't believe in math.
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:17 am
by wicked
I'm not arguing stats with you again cram.
Having a smaller sample size is never a good thing!
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:24 am
by Senfive
wicked wrote:I'm not arguing stats with you again cram.
Having a smaller sample size is never a good thing!
We talking math here???
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:25 am
by wicked
Well since he came on, posted a bunch, then left, w/o posting here, I'm going to
unvote no lynch
vote RK
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:44 am
by Senfive
wicked wrote:Well since he came on, posted a bunch, then left, w/o posting here, I'm going to
unvote no lynch
vote RK
This is the second game in which he has posted nothing of usefullness, but posts in other threads. Not even a random vote. Wicked's logic isn't flawed here.
FOS RK
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:53 am
by Incandenza
I'm going to feel dumb if I'm wrong, but it seems like if RK was a 'power townie' and gave two shi'ites about the game, he would've at least made an appearance. Of course, his aloofness could imply that he's but a mere vanilla townie.
Screw it. Subject to change, of course, but...
vote RK