Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

[mookiemcgee]

BTC ATH TODAY - YOU SNOOZE YOU LOSE

[HitRed]

Is the Bitcoin run over?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... p_catchall

[bigtoughralf]

Rather than Bitcoin why not invest in something equally reliable that you also understand better, like gambling on basketball games?

[mookiemcgee]

Is the Bitcoin run over?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... p_catchall

My guess is... not (even close) yet. Risk bands are way way lower than they were when it dropped in March/April.

[HitRed]

Great! If you could make a major purchase on Monday El Salvador would be mucho appreciative.

[mookiemcgee]

Great! If you could make a major purchase on Monday El Salvador would be mucho appreciative.

DCA... don't do major purchases... and El Salvador don't care much since they aren't selling anytime soon lol.

BTC mini crashed along with most Alts but ETH was surprisingly resilient. pairs like DOT/ETH and AAVE/ETH and VET/ETH are all approaching historic lows (meaning they have all been bleeding against ETH significantly). What does that mean about the near future? well there is no telling,but ETH doesn't seem to want to drop, but we are getting to a point where either ETH drops vs the market overall or these other main alts have some serious spikes inbound over the next 2-3 months.... I'm hoping for the later.

I always have a hard time linking images here or I'd show you what I mean... but if you look go to this VET/ETH link and click like longer timeframe you will see what i mean about how these 'blue chip' alts have these spikes against eth and then bleed off more slowly. currently we are at or near the lows.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/VETETH/

[HitRed]

It’s all Greek to me. So Crypto runs 24/7?

[mookiemcgee]

It’s all Greek to me. So Crypto runs 24/7?

24/7 365... and I'm sorry but this is going to continue to sound greek. It's all "decentralized", so one big advantage of crypto is there is no single entity controlling a single exchange where all the trading happens. There are centralized exchange services like coinbase/binance but you can trade most of these coins 'on chain' through decentralized exchange programs (like Uniswap on ETH network or pancakeswap on Binance Smart Chain. There is no longer such thing as a single marketplace with set hours. The prices of the coins is really only the tip of the iceberg though, there has been lots of incredible gains just on holding coins that people told you were a stupid fad and that has brought alot of attention to it but the long term value is about dapps operating on chains interacting with digital wallets.

[HitRed]

“Losses appear related to uncertainties over the Omicron variant of coronavirus and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks to Congress last week that the central bank would hasten the wind-down of its pandemic bond-buying program in response to inflation.”

[mookiemcgee]

@hitred - if you are genuinely interested in learning a bit about crypto investment strategy from a highly cogent an experienced investor I'd suggest watching some of this guys videos. I think he's about the best out there, he's not a 'Maxi' whos interested in shilling anything specific and is focused on overall market analysis from a mathematical/institutional long term investment perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQ ... uEx-w0XOIg


One of his early (2 year old) videos about bitcoin specifically:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpxxioVagcs

As you watch this one keep in mind the current analysis is that we are in a lengthened cycle, so the peak is now expected to come later than the Dec 2021 peak in his graph in this older video... sometime in mid to late 2022 is his more recent videos suggest is 'likely' to be the peak which he suggest will now be over 145k price because the cycle lengthened.

[HitRed]

I watched the full first video. The first chart didn’t help me at all but the rest clicked. I understand now what they can see and how they are trying to project. They don’t have earning but they do have tools that seek trends.

[mookiemcgee]

I watched the full first video. The first chart didn’t help me at all but the rest clicked. I understand now what they can see and how they are trying to project. They don’t have earning but they do have tools that seek trends.

Bitcoin isn't a company so no earnings. Just people trading it that moves the price, and more recently options/futures that also affect price but it's pure supply and demand 24/7.

New supply slows over time, quite specifically the 'halvening' happens every four years when the rewards for miners gets cut in half. Mining also just gets 'harder' constantly (meaning it requires better equipment and more energy over time to get the same number of bitcoins (due to competition), and then every four years that amount of bitcoins is also cut in half(coded into bitcoin by design aka the halvening). Miners who earn the new bitcoins created at any given time generally have to sell it to pay for equipment+energy so its 'new supply' in both the sense it didn't exist before, but it's generally also 'new supply' in the sense of its constant sell pressure on bitcoin. If prices get too low miners won't sell and try and wait it out, there are lots of market dynamics at play with this.

Conversely demand is still expected to grow exponentially as we are still very early. The more the price goes up, the more investors want in. We start with the riskiest class of 'cultish' true believers and slowly we get more and more of the safe institutional money wanting to hold some. That first 4 year market cycle, people who bought perfectly low and sold perfectly high might have seen a 10,000% return. Now if you time it perfectly it might be a 2000% return (specifically on Bitcoin). eventually (say in 20-30 years) a 'good' 4 year return might be 20% because the market will be virtually saturated and volatility will go way way way down and then maybe it becomes more of an actual store of value rather than a speculative investment. but for now traders / early whales also move the prices alot, they are more pure speculative investors (like this guy in the video) trying to 'play' these four year market cycles as best they can.

None of this really applies when analyzing Ethereum or other alts, but bitcoin is still the largest by leaps and bounds so it moves and the rest of the market follows. could change, but got the foreseeable future that is how it's gonna stay. This guys more recent videos suggest he believes down the road (in a decade or so) Ethereum will 'flip' bitcoin in market cap and will lead the market. That isn't to say he doesn't believe bitcoin won't still go up in price, just that Ethereum will go up faster (vs the dollar)

[HitRed]

Youtube is full of people talking about Bitcoin's almost predictable the 4 year cycle. Some of the older postings are talking about pre-cycle, cycle or post-cycle for the jump in price happening. Seems the pre-cycle didn't happen and everyone is looking for the big jump.

I have a theory on why it isn't jumping up. The trended lines might even flatten... or go down.

Today Bitcoin reached 90% of all the bitcoin that is ever going to be.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... p_catchall

That isn't a bid deal though.
---

This is though

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/man ... p_catchall

Block One worth maybe 55 Billion has never been touched. Not even a single share. The lawsuit is now over and the owner can unleash it if he wishes. A tidal wave to shares. Or not.

[HitRed]

As I read it

1.1 Million out of existing 19 Million is .05789%

1.1 Million out of max number of 21 Million is .05238%

Could be bigger but it is still a good chunk...unless he owns more of the block chain than people realize.

This is important for any opportunity/threat analysis.

[HitRed]

"Wright has said he plans to donate much of the Bitcoin fortune to charity if he were to win at trial. In an interview, Wright’s lawyer Rivero reconfirmed Wright’s plans to donate much of his Bitcoin fortune."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... b-81586429

So it is safe to say these shares will be moving.

[mookiemcgee]

Youtube is full of people talking about Bitcoin's almost predictable the 4 year cycle. Some of the older postings are talking about pre-cycle, cycle or post-cycle for the jump in price happening. Seems the pre-cycle didn't happen and everyone is looking for the big jump.

I have a theory on why it isn't jumping up. The trended lines might even flatten... or go down.

Today Bitcoin reached 90% of all the bitcoin that is ever going to be.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... p_catchall

That isn't a bid deal though.
---

This is though

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/man ... p_catchall

Block One worth maybe 55 Billion has never been touched. Not even a single share. The lawsuit is now over and the owner can unleash it if he wishes. A tidal wave to shares. Or not.

ON BTC supply
Yes to all of this... miners get less and less over time. They have to 'work harder' (more energy/better equipment) for less btc over time, this is one of the fundamental premises' for why price go up over time. All of this is market driven though, if some miners decide it isn't worth it and turn off their miners there is less competition and temporarily the difficulty goes down until some other miners replace them. There was a huge drop in 'hash rate' (or level of competition to mine new bitcoin) about 6-8 months ago when China banned mining and actively went after/arrested/siezed equippement from miners there. It took a few months for Chinese miners to relocate or resell their equipment overseas.

On early bitcoin mined
"legacy wallets" like the ones belonging to 'satoshi nakamoto' that have never moved any coins since mining their bitcoin 11 years ago are kinda the big wildcard for bitcoin (supply). Some people believe whoever satoshi was is now dead and those coins can never be moved (no one has the key to that/those wallets). Craig Wright (the guy who one the lawsuit) claims he is satoshi, and won a civil case in florida in which he presented evidence he was 'around' during the inception of bitcoin. He present some evidence he was Satoshi, but many in the crypto community don't believe him because he has as of yet never 'proved' it 'on chain' (he has never moved any BTC to or from these early wallets, and there are some signals he could send from those wallets without moving the coins that would also prove he had access). If Craig Wright truly does have access and moved the early bitcoin the market would go absoultly crazy and you'd probably see a flash crash like never seen before. my personal feeling is this is not likely to happen but no one really knows (expect Craig Wright). Frankly even before this lawsuit occured, Craig wright could have just moved the BTC if he really had access and avoided this entire lawsuit. He seems very keen (more than any other crypto people) on digging into litigation and forcing the courts to start setting crypto precedents. He will be a character to keep your eye on over the next decade for sure. Even without the 'legacy' wallets he claims to have access to, he owns alot of BTC in other wallets and is a very wealthy man who can use his wealth to f*ck with people.

On this market cycle
The current kinda of mainstream analysis is that the 4 years cycles will slow down (take longer) and become less volatile (see lower highs, and higher lows) progressively over time. This would explain why right now in DEC we are seeing prices decline for 30-45 days straight in what are generally very good months, and why we have not yet seen anywhere close to the high side price predictions achieved this year. This analysis still leads to the conclusion we will hit 100k+ BTC within 6-12 months, and the bull cycle is still on. The longer it takes to achieve these highs, the higher the highs will be.

That said, this analysis could be wrong, and we could have already peaked for this cycle (they would call this a 'double top' we hit 60k in spring, touched it again and are now headed down) and are in the midst of (1 month into) a turndown that would last 12+ months.

"1.1 Million out of existing 19 Million is .05789%

1.1 Million out of max number of 21 Million is .05238%"

You are a decimal place off here with your math. 1.1/21 = .5% of the total supply.

[mookiemcgee]

So it is safe to say these shares will be moving.

You might think so, but many are still skeptical he actually has access. He has never proven this, and they basically side stepped this in court (he was asked to prove it, and did not actually move or send any signals from the actual wallet(s) proving he has access). Maybe that is because he didn't want to or didn't feel he had to... or maybe because he doesn't actually have access.

Some people believe he and the actual satoshi split the secret phrase meaning he was involved but can't actually access it without the other parties half of the phrase. At the end of the day the court case basically only means the dead guys family gets nothing... but it didn't fully address 'access' to the wallet.

[mookiemcgee]

Specifically when reading about the craig wright case I would avoid mainstream news. Here is a more detailed article, with a ton of links to previous articles if you really want to go down the rabbit hole.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/1 ... rtnership/

[2dimes]

To play amish advocate here..

If a massive solar storm or large enough man made EMP, wipes out computers, internet and electronics world wide, where does a guy go to pick up their money invested in Bitcoin and other crypto currency?

[mookiemcgee]

To play amish advocate here..

If a massive solar storm or large enough man made EMP, wipes out computers, internet and electronics world wide, where does a guy go to pick up their money invested in Bitcoin and other crypto currency?

It's a fair point, but I feel like 'how do i get my bitcoin' is the least of your problems if all global devices can't hold electric charges anymore. Do you even need money in that apocalyptic world? Only currencies worth a damn anymore will be "I'll kill you" , "I have food", "I have shelter" and of course the oldest currency, "I'll f*ck you".

(with that said, if we get electricity back in like 30 years your bitcoin would still be in your wallet and only accessible with your secret pass phrase. What they are worth then is kinda up to your imagination)

[2dimes]

Well, I don’t completely disagree, but… I feel like you’re missing a few skills one might barter with.

[2dimes]

Dag gummit. Fast edited.

So what colour is your wallet?

[mookiemcgee]

blue

[2dimes]

Good choice.

I opened one once at the cash machine at the mall. They gave me a crappy receipt with numbers on it. I was so disappointed I didn’t even put anything in it. Don’t even know where it is now.

It would have been a better story if I put a fiver in it like I should have.

[mookiemcgee]

Good choice.

I opened one once at the cash machine at the mall. They gave me a crappy receipt with numbers on it. I was so disappointed I didn’t even put anything in it. Don’t even know where it is now.

It would have been a better story if I put a fiver in it like I should have.

I have my secret passphrase tattooed on my... naw, I have it printed and sitting in my office drawer. It's a pretty insecure and pathetic system, I'm sort of banking on potential thieves going for the TV and ignoring the paper that says 'METAMASK PASSPHRASE'. Eventually I'd like to get it engraved in wood or metal and put that in a safety deposit box (or maybe buried with the gold)