Page 1 of 2
why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:51 pm
by muchalls
...when the dice is bad, it's really bad and runs for all your games...???
is there a bug??? all my tactics have gone t!ts up because of it....sometimes, it borderlines on "cheating" because the probabilities are so skewed....
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:57 pm
by The Neon Peon
Because if you get bad luck in just 1 game and good/normal luck in the other games, you forget it very quickly. But if you get bad dice in all your games, it messes things up and you remember it. There is no bug, the dice are random, and that hasn't changed.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 4:37 am
by FlyingElf
Actually I've found the opposite almost happens for me. If the dice are running bad in one game, they're usually running well for me in another.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 5:28 pm
by muchalls
well.....i remember my good dice...trust me...i've had 1 in the past 20 games....
the games i have won have been because my opponent have either made a mistake or have missed a couple of turns...
the dice is still conspiring against me....so frustrating...
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:03 pm
by john9blue
Dont' say the dice are against you, even if you are the unluckiest out of the ~400k users nobody will believe you, because it's easier to think that you are just bad at risk.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:07 pm
by Timminz
john9blue wrote:you are just bad at risk.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:29 pm
by nippersean
muchalls wrote:well.....i remember my good dice...trust me...i've had 1 in the past 20 games....
the games i have won have been because my opponent have either made a mistake or have missed a couple of turns...
the dice is still conspiring against me....so frustrating...
Well we'll wait in this thread for the 19 that say wow I've just had great dice.................
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 8:05 pm
by john9blue
See? People like Timminz have very linear minds...
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:32 am
by Timminz
john9blue wrote:See? People like Timminz have very linear minds...
And people who make generalizations are stupid.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 1:23 pm
by barterer2002
all generalizations are false, including this one.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 1:36 pm
by Timminz
john9blue wrote:See? People like Timminz.
It's true. I'm a likable kind of guy.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 5:51 pm
by muchalls
if anyone doesn't think the dice are rigged, just have a look at my games....
lose 14 hitting a 1....lose 6 hitting 1 twice....lose 11 hitting a 4, and the 4 stands...
another game...12 v 2....lose 12 to 1....
so much for probability and randomness!!!
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 3:48 pm
by Echospree
muchalls wrote:if anyone doesn't think the dice are rigged, just have a look at my games....
lose 14 hitting a 1....lose 6 hitting 1 twice....lose 11 hitting a 4, and the 4 stands...
another game...12 v 2....lose 12 to 1....
so much for probability and randomness!!!
That's what randomness MEANS, bud
And throwing random anecdotes about something that happened means nothing, unless you record ALL the die that you've been rolling. Picking and choosing results means little to nothing.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:12 pm
by muchalls
if i recorded the past 30 games (everyone welcome to see them) you will see just how the dice have gone....
my call is...get those dice sorted...it's just happened again....lost 20+ while opponent lost max 3....
...but it's been an average of 6 to 1 lost in every game....
it's very frustrating.....and spoils the fun...i can accept a few games...up to 5... but with 30+ games going the same way, it really if beyond a joke...
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:56 pm
by denominator
If you truly believe the dice aren't random, stop playing.
If you still enjoy playing Conquer Club, stop complaining.
I have a theory. We all go for the attacks of 10v4 because the odds are in our favour. But we rarely go for the 4v10 attacks because the odds aren't. Which means your statistics are biased. Nobody ever gives equal opportunity to the longshot attacks, they just complain when their "sure" attacks fail.
muchalls wrote:if i recorded the past 30 games (everyone welcome to see them) you will see just how the dice have gone...
Go ahead and start recording your dice. I'd be interested to see the outcome of that.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 6:23 pm
by ljex
I have a dice analyzer just for fun as a greasemonkey script and I am not counting the category where i have 9 attempts (1 vs 2 as it is rare to do this unless in really bad position in the game) all of my stats are +- .5% of the expected results.
people need to stop saying that the dice are not random they are you just have a selective memory where you remember the times you have had bad dice.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:08 am
by natty dread
People need to stop saying that the dice are not random. They are, you just have a selective memory where you remember the times you have had bad dice.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:53 am
by jammyjames
The Neon Peon wrote:Because if you get bad luck in just 1 game and good/normal luck in the other games, you forget it very quickly. But if you get bad dice in all your games, it messes things up and you remember it. There is no bug, the dice are random, and that hasn't changed.
Over a long period of time. However it is not conlcluded that they are random over short periods of time. Heck you can go sometimes 20 - 30 games with completely dump dice...
But overall they are random, i think the big dice win streaks measure it back even.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:48 pm
by Echospree
jammyjames wrote:The Neon Peon wrote:Because if you get bad luck in just 1 game and good/normal luck in the other games, you forget it very quickly. But if you get bad dice in all your games, it messes things up and you remember it. There is no bug, the dice are random, and that hasn't changed.
Over a long period of time. However it is not conlcluded that they are random over short periods of time. Heck you can go sometimes 20 - 30 games with completely dump dice...
But overall they are random, i think the big dice win streaks measure it back even.
Over short periods of time, a perfectly random process can quite easily appear non-random. Over a short period of time, there are very few dice rolled, so the variance in the system is MASSIVE, which is what causes winning/losing streaks. It's still perfectly random, it's just taking data over a short period time can occasionally produce results which LOOK non-random.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:34 pm
by The Neon Peon
jammyjames wrote:The Neon Peon wrote:Because if you get bad luck in just 1 game and good/normal luck in the other games, you forget it very quickly. But if you get bad dice in all your games, it messes things up and you remember it. There is no bug, the dice are random, and that hasn't changed.
Over a long period of time. However it is not conlcluded that they are random over short periods of time. Heck you can go sometimes 20 - 30 games with completely dump dice...
But overall they are random, i think the big dice win streaks measure it back even.
I suggest you look up the definition of random... "bad dice" does not mean "not random"
Random means that there is no pattern. Take a time when you won/lost 14 troops in a row. (assuming you attacked 3v2) You rolled 70 dice. Now write them down and show to me where it starts repeating and forms a pattern.
Btw, if you do some searching, you will find that if something has a pattern (hence is not random), you can predict what it will be next by following the pattern. So once you find one in the dice, you should be able to use it to predict what dice you're about to get. Good luck with that.
<= That is why the dice never have or will get changed on CC. The only pattern in them is 500,000 numbers long. People are constantly taking their turns, so between two attacks, you might have moved 100 spaces further in that pattern because other people rolled 100 dice.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:34 pm
by muchalls
just started recording....Game 6351516
Round 1 - lose 12 against 4
Round 2 - Lose 10 against 4
Round 3 - Lose 10 against 6
Doesn't look good for me, and it's only round 3...
I used to enjoy it, I don't now, it's just a personal challenge to climb back up the ranks...but i guess it's not happening...
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:38 pm
by muchalls
Round 4...odds getting better...lose 4 against 2....stopped attacking...
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:23 pm
by Echospree
You need to record every dice roll if you want to make a real analysis >.> Otherwise you're STILL cherry-picking particular results.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:47 pm
by The Neon Peon
There is a dice analyzer script that records the result of every roll you make.
I had mine get to 100k at one point. Still had 2% higher than predicted wins overall.
Re: why is it.....
Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2010 6:48 pm
by muchalls
can i get a shot of it? I really need it cos i nearly smashed my screen after a 12-0 drubbing...again!!!!!
it might give me something else to focus on....