Conquer Club

I thought it would be nice of me to post dice probabilities
the suggestion is to read the post

here is a simple chart thingy not a very good one i might add but helpful


attackers are up on top so defenders are on the side
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 0 42% 75% 92% 97% 99% >99% >99% >99% >99% >99% the percentages
2 0 11% 36% 66% 79% 89% 93% 97% 98% 99% 99% are percentages of
3 0 3% 21% 47% 64% 77% 86% 91% 95% 97% 98% winning a battle
4 0 1% 9% 31% 48% 64% 74% 83% 89% 93% 95%
5 0 <1% 5% 21% 36% 51% 64% 74% 82% 87% 92% so for all u who are
6 0 <1% 2% 13% 25% 40% 52% 64% 73% 81% 86% wondering 3 vs 3
7 0 <1% 1% 8% 18% 30% 42% 54% 64% 73% 80% has about a 1/5 or 21%
8 0 <1% <1% 5% 12% 22% 33% 45% 55% 65% 72% chance of winning
9 0 <1% <1% 3% 9% 16% 26% 36% 46% 56% 65%
10 0 <1% <1% 2% 6% 12% 19% 29% 38% 48% 57%

basically u can imagine for 12 vs 11 it would 58% and 9 vs 11it would be 32% or 1/3

also i would like to add that if you have about 20 armies on average you can conquer 13 countries with the countries having only one army so 10 would be 6.5 or 30 would be 19.5 or 40 would be 26 simple way off thinking about your odds

but lets say the countries have 2 armies each on average with 20 armies u could get 7.5 countries so 40 armies could get about 15 of these countries with 2 armies each


my source is from this website http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~kevin/risk/risk.html which also has a bigger chart

If you use Firefox, you can download a plug-in that calculates percentages right on your game's page

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 59&t=83451

Army of GOD wrote:If you use Firefox, you can download a plug-in that calculates percentages right on your game's page

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 59&t=83451

Don't be fooled by his propaganda. It works on Google Chrome as well!

-rd

The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Army of GOD wrote:If you use Firefox, you can download a plug-in that calculates percentages right on your game's page

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 59&t=83451

Its nice to not have to download stuff and know what your odds are though

AslanTheKing wrote:The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it
Game 8716664 LYR had 10 armies on the pot of gold
I put 3 armies on clover 10
and auto assaulted the pot of gold somehow i won without a single loss and LYR ended up losing the game this is a perfect example of this websites supposedly "random" dice

bobby538 wrote:Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it

2%, so every 50 times you try that it'll work once? That is quite a big chance for such a move, if you ask me. I better start trying that out, because it will happen eventually. Just like it did in your case.

bobby538 wrote:

AslanTheKing wrote:The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it
Game 8716664 LYR had 10 armies on the pot of gold
I put 3 armies on clover 10
and auto assaulted the pot of gold somehow i won without a single loss and LYR ended up losing the game this is a perfect example of this websites supposedly "random" dice

The two of you should really just stay in school and work on your calculatory and objective reasoning skills.

Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

bobby538 wrote:Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

Now consider how many 1-vs-1 games have been played on that map in only the year and a half or so that the map has been played on: 24243

Oh, and your math skills suck.

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:

AslanTheKing wrote:The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it
Game 8716664 LYR had 10 armies on the pot of gold
I put 3 armies on clover 10
and auto assaulted the pot of gold somehow i won without a single loss and LYR ended up losing the game this is a perfect example of this websites supposedly "random" dice

The two of you should really just stay in school and work on your calculatory and objective reasoning skills.

here you go again with with the personal attacks

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

Now consider how many 1-vs-1 games have been played on that map in only the year and a half or so that the map has been played on: 24243

Oh, and your math skills suck.

where are the Mods is this not considered a flame... It appears to me that you are taking this thread to heart..

danfrank wrote:

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:

AslanTheKing wrote:The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it
Game 8716664 LYR had 10 armies on the pot of gold
I put 3 armies on clover 10
and auto assaulted the pot of gold somehow i won without a single loss and LYR ended up losing the game this is a perfect example of this websites supposedly "random" dice

The two of you should really just stay in school and work on your calculatory and objective reasoning skills.

here you go again with with the personal attacks

It's not a personal attack. It's a statement that they really should just stay in school and work on their calculatory and objective reasoning skills. Because it's plainly obvious that they need serious help in those areas.

danfrank wrote:

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

Now consider how many 1-vs-1 games have been played on that map in only the year and a half or so that the map has been played on: 24243

Oh, and your math skills suck.

where are the Mods is this not considered a flame... It appears to me that you are taking this thread to heart..

His math skills DO suck. I know you're desperate to have someone believe that the dice here are as you like to claim, but is 9 out of 200 really equivalent to 9 percent in your world?

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:

AslanTheKing wrote:The experience i made,
forget mathematics,
the dice suck
in real life if you throw the dice, the probability might be,
but not in computerlife
computer and dice, forget mathematics,
everything is possible

The dice on this site suck,
and im really fed up

Iknow exactly what you mean because according to mathmatics the odds of winning 4 armies attacking 10 armies is 2% but on this site i have done it
Game 8716664 LYR had 10 armies on the pot of gold
I put 3 armies on clover 10
and auto assaulted the pot of gold somehow i won without a single loss and LYR ended up losing the game this is a perfect example of this websites supposedly "random" dice

The two of you should really just stay in school and work on your calculatory and objective reasoning skills.

hello Woodruff

just now i put 15 armys against a neutral 3 !!! i lost my armys and stoped with 7 left,
if i would have gone on, i would have lost all, that much i know now about the dice here,
forget strategy and mathematics, i say it again, dice , logic, mathematic suck here big time,
it works well for those who pay to be on this side,
or for thos who team up ( that is happening here alot- but im not wasting my time to go after this clowns)
the fun is gone, boredom rules playing this games, dont take it serious anymore, ciao

Ciao.
Have fun on another site where the dice are full of logic.

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

Now consider how many 1-vs-1 games have been played on that map in only the year and a half or so that the map has been played on: 24243

Oh, and your math skills suck.

i got 9 out of 200 because it would only work if you go first which is about half the time and it would also only happen if you attacked the polish air force and then your enemies regions which most people dont try to do but u could get 9 out of 200 if u wanted

bobby538 wrote:

Woodruff wrote:

bobby538 wrote:Game 5965434
this is the polish WWII map
in a 1vs1 game a guy wins on his first turn the chances of doing this are actual about 9 percent so say u played this map 200 times u might be able to knock someone out your first turn in about nine of the game times

Now consider how many 1-vs-1 games have been played on that map in only the year and a half or so that the map has been played on: 24243

Oh, and your math skills suck.

i got 9 out of 200 because it would only work if you go first which is about half the time and it would also only happen if you attacked the polish air force and then your enemies regions which most people dont try to do but u could get 9 out of 200 if u wanted

Regardless of the explanation, that's still not 9 percent.