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Dice Improbability
Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:30 pm
by Wayne MacIsaac
The notion that dice are random is contradicted by info provided by the site. I have had several experiences of taking 20-30 troops against 3 and losing everything while taking off nothing,or maybe 1, & : games where I won less than 10% of all battles. Less than 1%, on one occasion. Does rank improve dice? I know there are a bunch of situations listed that do.
The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
Re: Dice Improbability
Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:47 pm
by redhawk92
the dice are correct there have been a hundred studies on them
Re: Dice Probably
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:18 am
by oVo
I just expended 18 armies to kill 3. SHIT DOES HAPPEN.
So I expect some good dice soon.
Re: Dice Probably
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 3:05 pm
by Phlaim
oVo wrote:I just expended 18 armies to kill 3. SHIT DOES HAPPEN.
So I expect some good dice soon.
ye that's what happens. one tends to notice the bad dice more than the good.
Re: Dice Improbability
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:36 pm
by blakebowling
The word random means unpredictable.. not following a pattern or a percentage.
Re: Dice Improbability
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:54 pm
by Robinette
blakebowling wrote:The word random means unpredictable.. not following a pattern or a percentage.
AH HA!
But the dice ARE predictable... and there IS a pattern...
The predictability is in the threads that are created to complain about them...
And the pattern is repeated complaints from the same normal dice...
heheheee
Re: Dice Improbability
Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2009 10:54 am
by ScottVal
The probability of the defender winning in a 3-v-2 dice roll is 29%. You can figure out the probability of the defender winning N rolls in a row by taking 29% to the Nth power.
For example, you said you've attacked 20-30 armies v. 3 and lost it all, and the defender lost none. In the case of 20 armies, that's nine rolls in a row. 29% ** 9 = .0015%. That about one chance in 69,000.
So, yea, something like that maybe you'll see once in a limetime of playing these games. If you see it frequently, that's evidence that something is wrong.
On the other hand, if there are a lot of players on the site, it may happen to one unlucky player, and then again a week later! That player will be posting that something's wrong with the dice!.....
-Scott
Re: Dice Improbability
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:37 pm
by Thezzaruz
Wayne MacIsaac wrote:
The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
No it doesn't...
Go get the dice analyzer script and then come back after a some thousand rolls, if your stats still are off the expected path then we'll talk.