DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???

[Ros]

I put up a poll & discussion about the dice. Obviously the dice on CC can roll very different from real dice because they are just a bar of 2,3,4 or 5 fixed numbers in stead of numbers rolling separately.

Now this topic has been moved by the moderator. Only it does not say where it has been moved to. http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=41659
In fact it has not been moved on the public forum at all. In stead an 'ad-hoc' group will have 'private, focused, discussions' far away from the average player's attention. http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... highlight= Players who are customers who have the right to know how the system works and what the possibilities are to change or improve it.

Lots of people wrote not to agree with the dice system on CC. At least 35 % of voters voted that they are not satisfied with the dice. That's quite a lot and CC depends on these customers.

Instead of silencing us it would be better if the CC management would join or comment publicly on the discussion and discuss plans on how to improve or change the dice system.

Or is there only room on the CC forum for players who agree with everything on CC?

I like playing on CC and i have seen lots of improvement in the last year but i think the dice is more important to players than the color of their armies...

[hecter]

Who says you still can't publicly discuss the dice? If the ad-hoc members are good, they'll read what you have to say in public as much as they read what is said in private.

[insomniacdude]

I see no problem worth discussing. The dice are generated randomly whether in 2- or 5- number lines (speaking of which I don't know where you got this info. Source please?), and even if there was something wrong with that - if, somehow, randomness of 2 numbers is different than randomness of 1 number - then that disturbance affects every player.

I honestly don't see this as worth discussing. Randomness of 2 digits is no different than randomness of 1 digit - and if the dice somehow defied statistics, that would affect everybody equally, thus negating the argument of them being unfair in the first place.

[steelerfan24]

I see no problem worth discussing. The dice are generated randomly whether in 2- or 5- number lines (speaking of which I don't know where you got this info. Source please?), and even if there was something wrong with that - if, somehow, randomness of 2 numbers is different than randomness of 1 number - then that disturbance affects every player.

I honestly don't see this as worth discussing. Randomness of 2 digits is no different than randomness of 1 digit - and if the dice somehow defied statistics, that would affect everybody equally, thus negating the argument of them being unfair in the first place.

This information is in the FAQ section on the help link at the top of the site.

17. How do the dice work?

The dice are based on high quality random numbers from Random.org. The numbers are read from a large file containing columns of numbers from 1 to 6, in the format A1 A2 A3 D1 D2. When the dice are rolled, the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it. The appropriate numbers are used and the others are ignored. The file contains 500,000 lines of dice rolls and is re-loaded when all the lines are used up. As of November 2007 we consume 850,000 lines of dice rolls per day.

This is saying that lines of dice are stored in a file, and that the game picks a line from that file, and does not roll each dice separately, as Ros wants done. I would agree with you, insomniac, that the way dice are currently generated should work well enough unless the programming is majorly flawed, which I don't think is the case.

[wcaclimbing]

The point of the ad-hoc groups is just to host private discussions between people that know what they are talking about, but everything that happens out here is discussed in private, also. So if you post a discussion thread about the dice, people in the group will see that discussion and carry any important ideas into private discussions.

The groups don't really have that much effect on everything around here, they are really just discussion groups.You can start your own discussion on the dice out here if you want. It would be exactly the same thing.

mods, feel free to correct what i have said if any of it is wrong...

[PLAYER57832]

The biggest problem with dice is NOT the actual random nature, it is HUMAN nature.

The reality is two-fold.

A. We all tend to think we are "winners". It is easy/tempting to look for outside reasons why you have lost OTHER than your lack of skill. In Risk, this is absolutely the case at times, but that is just part of the game. You can like or dislike it, but it remains one of the most popular games of all time .. for good reason.

There is a saying" the best game is one with enough variability to allow winners to credit skill and enough chance to allow losers to credit luck with their loss. There is more than a little truth to that.

B. Also psychology, we tend to remember "unfair" losses much more than wins. Teh short explanation (lacking detail, but true) is that we generally assume we have the "right" to win. A win, by any cause, is therefore not "remarkable", less memorable than when the "rules are broken" and we lose.

C. To truly assess the randomness of the dice, you cannot go simply by your (or anyone else's perception), for many reasons. As a human you are INCAPABLE of giving an unbiased assessment. You need to assess it with complex mathematical formulae.

D. By -the way, though no algorythm is really and truly 100% random in the mathematical sense to the infinit power, most randome generators are actually better than, more truly random than a human rolling dice. Is Lack using the best algorythm available? Who knows, but why wouldn't he. If blaming the dice, the algorythm makes you happy, so be it. If, however, you want it changed .. you better come up with something better than just opinion -- yours or 30 other individuals. Particularly untrained individuals

E. Finally, IF you have the mathematical ability to provide a REAL and intelligent analysis of the probability/randomness of the "dice", IF you can suggest some better alternatives, then ask to join the ad hoc group.

[wicked]

Ros, we've sent out a search team for your wayward thread. Apologies for any mixup. I'm moving this to GD, as it's a discussion.

[Ros]

You are right about that psychology stuff but i'm not saying that in the end the dice don't turn out equally. After all, if there's bad dice then everyone gets this as well. So nobody will gain or lose anything on how the dice rolls at CC.

But better players, who calculate and balance out the armies well, won't be able to play the top of their game if the dice starts rolling ridiculously weird. In fact, the lesser players, who often think that Risk is a 'lucky dice game', will gain from an outrageous rolling dice because they play this game by just 'trying their luck'. And everyone can get lucky as well as unlucky, so the difference between the better and lesser players is getting smaller under the influence of this dice system.

Some people might not get this but there are examples of other games in which players perform at their best under the best possible circumstances:
Poker (Texas holdem) is a game which looks like luck to many people, but in fact it isn't cause everyone gets good and bad hands as long as the dealer (!) is doing his job properly. And the same players are in the world series every year. Why?!!
Or take pool billiards: the lesser player has a better chance of winning on an unbalanced table with crap equipment because the better player just can't play at the top of his game under those circumstances.
And then there is football or let's say soccer where the grass & field size can make it very hard for pro teams to beat amateurs.
Luckily, in all these games players and organizers will try to pick and provide the best circumstances.

But back to Risk on CC, which has a monopoly and thus isn't forced into finding the best circumstances for the dice unlike the other organizers who have to provide the best cards & dealers, the best tables & cue balls and the best fields. So let's see what often happens with the dice on CC of which you say 'it's all in the mind' :

What you are forgetting is to remember the strange repetitions, such as getting the exact same 5 numbers twice in a row or the 3 attacker's dice will be the same 3 times in a row. This happens on a regular scale. And how high (should say low) are the odds on getting that ! These events are clearly coming from a computer file of which the 'random' computer picks the same row of (2, 3, 4 or 5) numbers because it isn't able to get others for a certain period. Also it often happens that on some days everyone gets better dice and on others everyone gets worse. These last events seem to happen because the computer skips certain 'files' for a long period because it doesn't get access to them for some time.

I play risk because it's a tactical game slightly influenced by the 'luck of the dice' because what comes around goes around, even with the CC dice system. The only problem is that many players, including myself, lose their appetite to play this game when the dice system screws up on such a regular scale. Why are we trying to play the top of our game when the roll of the dice seems to decide most games. As i said before, we might as well start playing bingo cause there's less thinking and lots of luck involved.

And the other dice system option is the one they use on Risk ll (CDrom) where each number of dice rolls separately.

[Ros]

thanks wicked, just saw your message after i sent the previous one.

[hwhrhett]

ros, go get the dice analyzer, play a few hundred games and then come back if you still think that the dice arent 'random'

[Ros]

ros, go get the dice analyzer, play a few hundred games and then come back if you still think that the dice arent 'random'

Either you don't read what i wrote or it is beyond your comprehension.

The diceanalyser will show even statistics, that's not my point. The problem is that the dice are rolling in repetition cause the files seem to get stuck.

The only thing the pro CC dice system players can come up with is the diceanalyser. Come with some better arguments on the reasons of taking a separate number dice system like the one on Risk ll. This system will forever stop all discussion about the dice cause each dice is random instead of 5 dice in one file which we use now.

[PLAYER57832]

hhrwht put it well,


but you missed a couple of points.

A. Neither YOU, nor ANY human being is capable of assessing true randomness. A string of certain rolls MAY WELL be within the realm of random probability, or maybe not. You would have to do a true analysis to find out. That is why folks go to school to study statistics, by-the-way. It ISN'T obviousl

B. regarding the comparisons to Poker. This is Risk. It is what it is. It is NOT poker. Despite these "flaws" this game remains one of the most popular games in history -- or, gee, maybe it is BECAUSE of those things you term "flaws".

Differentiate -- if you don't like the dice, do the statistical analysis to PROVE your point (opinions DO NOT count!). If, however, your complaint is in how the game is structured .. then you may just need to find another game that actually meets your criteria. This site is based on the traditional Risk game, with various map spin-offs.

[crzyblue]

If they're going to use random.org, they should have it call a fresh number from the site for EACH dice not all at once.... as it is now, if you are calling 5 dice they're all being called at once from the site, instead of 1 at a time... at this point then each dice would come from a different file from random.org although the chances of them being the same number don't very much it will then be calling each dice individually, Or they could come up with a dice system in CC that draws a number randomly 1 - 252 and assign a range of numbers if drawn will be assigned to a number like lets say 75 was drawn and it fell in the range of 3 as a dice then boom you got a 3.

[crzyblue]

and to break down the coding if they wanted to use the 1- 257 method it would be
If num is >= 1 but <= 42 then dice1
If num is >= 43 but <= 85 then dice2
If num is >= 86 but <= 128 then dice3
If num is >= 129 but <= 171 then dice4
If num is >= 172 but <= 214 then dice5
If num is >= 215 but <= 257 then dice6
or something close to that

[lackattack]

I don't see how it makes any difference if we waste numbers by using up 5 at a time. The numers on each line are independently random.

[uzless]

I see the automatic 6 for the defender when it's 3 vs 1 has returned.

God this is annoying.

[Riskmaster101]

posting

[crzyblue]

All I could say is lack, that it'll make people feel alot better if they were pulled separately, personally I could careless, but I'm just trying to help provide information to meet the peoples needs You know i'm always trying to help

[owenshooter]

there is no censoring CC... ahem...-0

[crzyblue]

since i hate editing... but atleast if you give the people what they want, they can't really complain, I figured the best way would be the second one I proposed since it would be more random then pulling 5 different dice, but hey again it's just my suggestion, now yes this belongs elsewhere but it got moved so I only post here... again I could careless about the dice but I'm only trying to shead light on both sides, providing coding and suggestion of what could be done and how it really doesn't make a difference.

[Twill]

My apologies Ros, I moved your dice thread to the Dice Ad-Hoc group to continue the discussion which had begun without all of the "Dice suck!" noise which inevitably comes from having dice threads in public.

I should have PM'd you, that was my bad.

If you would like to continue discussions on the dice, we would like to move them into the ad-hoc group and I'd invite you to join there as you have show a distinct interest in it.

If you would like to join, please PM me.

To everyone else, if you would like to discuss the dice, please see this thread for how to join the dice ad-hoc group so that we don't have 100 threads to follow on the dice all the time.

Sorry for the confusion Ros
Twill

[Mycroft73]

Guys, stop whining about the dice and the random number generator. Here's the basic facts:

Attack 4 on 1, you will LOSE 34% of the time. (3 attack dice, 1 defense dice)
Attack 3 on 1, you will LOSE 42% of the time.
Attack 2 on 1, you will LOSE 75% of the time.

So, if you start with 4 against the opponent's 1, you have about a 10.7% chance of being completely stuffed. Once every ten times you try.

In a standard 3 dice v. 2 dice attack, the odds of the attacker winning 2 are 37%. Lose 2, 34%. Split, 29%. Since dice have no memory, it doesn't matter that you just lost the last 10 rolls in a row...your odds of losing 2 on THIS roll are still 34%. That's more than 1 in 3. 10% chance of losing two in a row.

The reason CC seems "fixed," compared to the board game, is what was mentioned above: psychology. All you do is push the auto-attack button, and wham! you've either won or lost 10 in a row. If you win a bunch of times in a row, you are satisfied with the outcome and forget about it immediately...if you lose a bunch of times in a row, you remember getting screwed by the dice. If you read the strategy part of the forum, the big dogs NEVER use auto-attack, because they know how many they're willing to lose before they have to stop.

If you run the numbers, it's astonishing how low your chances of attacking successfully are...

[owenshooter]

If you run the numbers, it's astonishing how low your chances of attacking successfully are...

AMEN!!! you are preaching to the choir on that one!!! i say that all the time and people think i'm nuts. i have to have a very large advantage or attempting to limit an opponents armies to attack... no, i don't stockpile, but i am cautious about my attacking... nice post!!-0

[Switchfoot]

I don't see how it makes any difference if we waste numbers by using up 5 at a time. The numers on each line are independently random.

Computers can never inflict real or perfect randomness

[owenshooter]

I don't see how it makes any difference if we waste numbers by using up 5 at a time. The numers on each line are independently random.

i love when people get turtle poo on their posts!! the legend has come down from the mountain top to drop loads on your post!! go lack!!!-0

p.s.-there should be an entire DICE section of the forum when the new phbaldkajdla stuff is installed!