Probabilities

[dante1]

I am trying to find out if there is any database that will spell out the probabilities for the various attack scenarios for the games on this site. For example, what is the probability of winning an attack of 7 of your armies versus 6 of your opponent's armies, what is the expected outcome (how many of your armies should survive the attack, e.g.). I'm trying to find a list or a program that will determine the answers to these kinds of questions.

[Larry Mal]

Check Wikipedia, I seem to remember they had some odds or some links to them.

But remember, odds can always be trumped by determination and the sheer weight of your testicles.

[owenshooter]

Check Wikipedia, I seem to remember they had some odds or some links to them.
But remember, odds can always be trumped by determination and the sheer weight of your testicles.

hmmmm, let me check wikipedia...

Testicular size as a proportion of body weight varies widely. In the mammalian kingdom, there is a tendency for testicular size to correspond with multiple mates (e.g., harems, polygamy). Production of testicular output sperm and spermatic fluid is also larger in polygamous animals, possibly a spermatogenic competition for survival. The testicles of the right whale are likely to be the largest of any animal, each weighing around 500 kg (1,100 lb).

that right there is fascinating...-0

[dante1]

I've seen the Wikipedia page, but those are only for single rolls. I'm looking for a sheet that tell you the probabilities for all outcomes for any single distribution. For example, let's say you're playing Ukraine versus Ural. You have 7 armies, your competitor has 6 armies. There are many different possible outcomes from this confrontation, from 7-0 to 1-6 and everything in between. I'd like to see something that tells me the probability that the confrontation will end 4-0, 1-3, 1-1, or any other possible outcome.

[Top Dog]

download the dice analyzer from this site, it tells you everything

[Top Dog]

just type in numbers and it spits out the answers... 8vs.4 should come out 5vs.0... 35vs.35 should come out 5vs.0 which at first I didn't get cuz defender wins the tie but attacker gets one more die so it all evens out... give it a try

[poo-maker]

Here you go... http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

[oVo]

Probability doesn't account for luck and in many games it's painfully obvious that luck can trump the odds. So sometimes you have to give it a shot just to see which way the wind blows.

If you attack 6 with 7 your odds are not great, since the defender is guaranteed three rolls of 2 against 3 and they get the nod for all ties. It's quite possible they will only lose a single army, yet equally possible that you conquer the territory with only a single loss. I doubt there are many players here who have not seen both of these scenarios occur and it's hard to imagine any theoretical scheme that can accurately predict what will happen.

Defying probability here's an interesting factoid for owenshooter, it may be a total anatomical anomoly, but it's been noted on several occassions that some of the girls on this site have bigger balls than the guys.

[Pedronicus]

oVo is correct. I am a man with obscenely small nuts. Girls do not fear me and often trounce me in this game. All I am left with, is this forum to discredit their abilities based on no real evidence.

[dezzy26]

odds can always be trumped by determination and the sheer weight of your testicles

if that is the case im taking my tets to vegas as i have elephantitis of the bollocks and i aint had a shag in years
http://cas.bellarmine.edu/tietjen/images/heavyweight.jpg

my family all suffer the same problem lol

[dante1]

I've downloaded Dice Analyzer, but i keep getting an error message when I try to open it, saying "document is undefined".

[Top Dog]

it happened to me the 1st day I had it but went away soon after, it just goes away I guess

[dante1]

Probability doesn't account for luck and in many games it's painfully obvious that luck can trump the odds. So sometimes you have to give it a shot just to see which way the wind blows.

I know that luck will determine the outcome, but it doesn't hurt to know the which one is most likely.

Suppose it's your turn, and you're in a position to eliminate an opponent. That opponent's territories are divided into two or three separate, disconnected areas, so you need to ration your armies when you begin your turn. How do you do it? Knowing the likely outcomes of each scenario would be a great help in determining army placement.

[gdeangel]

That gamesbymail simulator is way out. How the heck does it account for multiple (chained) target territories... must be using Monte Carlo or something b/c those computations are like impossible. (I'm, of course suspicious, that if it's too complicated to calculate, it's not right).

Note to anyone whose interested... even odds at 11v12, which is perhaps why there are so many people wining about getting wiped out with "rigged" dice...

On the other hand, the odds of 11 vs 3,3,3,3 is like 30% and 11 vs 2,2,2,2,2,2 is like a mere 14%, which are the ones that piss me off when I'm on the other side of them. I suspected this but never could do the math... thanks for the link POO.

[oVo]

I just had a 21 vs 4 . . . and after losing five consecutive rolls, stopped at 11 vs 2.
Sometimes it is just too fucking hard to fucking stop fucking clicking the fucking attack button... regardless of what the fucking odds are.

[detlef]

If you attack 6 with 7 your odds are not great,

Depends on how you define "not great". If you are truly attacking with 7 (meaning that you have 8 armies on the starting area) your odds of success are 64%. If you have 7 on your attacking spot and are thus only attacking 6v6, your odds are still 52%.

Neither of those are all that bad if you can stomach the notion of quite possibly ending up with barely any armies left to guard your newly conquered spot.

In general, one of the biggest mistakes players can make is avoiding conflict where their odds of success aren't outstanding. Now, that doesn't mean you should just run around and attack at will. However, if the pay-off for success is really great then you should jump at any opportunity with even close to 50% chance of success.

This certainly goes for escalating games where an elimination can trigger a situation that allows you to take over the board. If there's 6 players in the game and success of taking out a player can put you in position where your chances of winning are outstanding, why not accept 30-40% chance of success on that run? You started the game with only 16% chance of winning, now your odds are 30-40%.

[gdeangel]

But the reality is that 6-7 odds might be close, but after the outcome of the first role, you get a big probability swing one way or the other.... which is why Autoattack is a bad idea if you can avoid it.