Weighting Dice Rolls for the first N rolls

[chundarr]

Concise description:

• For the first N rolls (50 < n < 100, I would guess), weight the dice rolls against the average of a player's previous rolls.

Specifics:

• For each player, keep a running average of their rolls. Until they've rolled 100 times or so, add (3.5 - avg) to their roll.

This will improve the following aspects of the site:

• Reduces the odds of being eliminated early because your first 20 rolls averaged 2.1. Also reduces the odds of having a game handed to you because your first 20 rolls averaged 5.1.
• As time passes and more rolls are factored into the average, the effect will diminish. Past 100 rolls it's certainly noise in the signal.

[BaldAdonis]

As much as people complain about the dice, I don't think complaints will be lessened by using less random dice.

[Mr_Adams]

BA is right.

[chundarr]

Well, I wasn't really thinking about reducing complaints. The people who complain about luck are playing the wrong game.

Rather it's just a device to dampen the large effect luck has in the *begininng* of the game. Assuming you don't make a large strategic gaffe later on, 20 or 30 good rolls right at the start will practically hand the game to you. The opposite is true, too. If your first 15 rolls average 2, odds are you go 3 turns without getting a card, and it doesn't matter if you're Napoleon or Custer--you're done.

Later in the game a string of good/bad luck is less dispositive of the outcome. I just thought it would be of value to limit the number of times luck ends a game before it even starts.