Best odds

monkeyboi · Post by **monkeyboi** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:27 pm

Which gives you better odds, attacking or defending?

Mr. K · Post by **Mr. K** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:45 pm

Defending. When there is a tie with the dice, the defender wins.

Meaning, if both players' highest roll is the same number, the defender wins.

pevanelagas · Post by **pevanelagas** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:53 pm

A few people believe..; not many, but a few... think that attacking is better.. Due to the fact that you get 3 dice(I assume the game uses 3 also, yes?).

All in all, I think defending has better chances.. But, it just matters upon your luck!

Jota · Post by **Jota** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:13 pm

Assuming both countries have enough armies to get the maximum number of dice, then the "RISK Battle Odds Calculator!" suggests that there's a 37% chance of the attacker winning the roll, a 29% chance of the defender winning, and a 34% chance of a tie. These are just for a single roll: keep in mind that those probabilities change drastically when the attacker gets down to three or fewer armies, or the defender is down to one.

qeee1 · Post by **qeee1** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:16 pm

At a 3v2 attack the odds are:

Attacker wins-(37.17 %)
Both lose one- (33.58 %)
Defender wins- (29.26 %)

So attacker has a slightly better chance.

EDIT: oops, Jota got there first.

pevanelagas · Post by **pevanelagas** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:18 pm

Woah, didn't know that..

Thx for correcting me you guys, and thx for the site Jota...; I'm sure I'll find myself refering to it for a big move!

monkeyboi · Post by **monkeyboi** » Sat May 13, 2006 7:58 am

Okey thanks everybody, it is really nice that so many people anwser

tanar · Post by **tanar** » Sat May 13, 2006 12:12 pm

"Slightly better" may not say much, and it also might be a bit difficult to apply these percentages (37 - 34 - 29) in practise,
but let me give an example of how the odds should work, if all went according to statistics...

Say, after you have deployed your armies, you have 15 armies on a country, and you
attack to a neighbour country with equal amount of 15 enemy armies. After exactly 13 dice rolls,
the expected situation in those countries should be 3 against 1. At that point, the odds change, of course,
but at least you have a possibility (or two) to take over the country you're attacking to.

So, during those 13 rolls you should've gained advantage of 2 armies, if the dice were rolling according the odds...
Make it 100 attacks, and we're talking about advantage of 16 armies for the attacker.

When in balance in border with massive amount armies, and you know there's going to be a war,
always be the first one to make your move