The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
Dice Improbability
Moderator: Community Team
Forum rules
Please read the community guidelines before posting.
Please read the community guidelines before posting.
-
Wayne MacIsaac
- Posts: 20
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:09 pm
Dice Improbability
The notion that dice are random is contradicted by info provided by the site. I have had several experiences of taking 20-30 troops against 3 and losing everything while taking off nothing,or maybe 1, & : games where I won less than 10% of all battles. Less than 1%, on one occasion. Does rank improve dice? I know there are a bunch of situations listed that do.
The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
Re: Dice Improbability
the dice are correct there have been a hundred studies on them
Re: Dice Probably
I just expended 18 armies to kill 3. SHIT DOES HAPPEN.
So I expect some good dice soon.
So I expect some good dice soon.
Re: Dice Probably
ye that's what happens. one tends to notice the bad dice more than the good.oVo wrote:I just expended 18 armies to kill 3. SHIT DOES HAPPEN.
So I expect some good dice soon.
Highest Score: 3868
-
blakebowling
- Posts: 5093
- Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:09 pm
- Gender: Male
- Location: 127.0.0.1
Re: Dice Improbability
The word random means unpredictable.. not following a pattern or a percentage.
Re: Dice Improbability
AH HA!blakebowling wrote:The word random means unpredictable.. not following a pattern or a percentage.
But the dice ARE predictable... and there IS a pattern...
The predictability is in the threads that are created to complain about them...
And the pattern is repeated complaints from the same normal dice...
heheheee
Re: Dice Improbability
The probability of the defender winning in a 3-v-2 dice roll is 29%. You can figure out the probability of the defender winning N rolls in a row by taking 29% to the Nth power.
For example, you said you've attacked 20-30 armies v. 3 and lost it all, and the defender lost none. In the case of 20 armies, that's nine rolls in a row. 29% ** 9 = .0015%. That about one chance in 69,000.
So, yea, something like that maybe you'll see once in a limetime of playing these games. If you see it frequently, that's evidence that something is wrong.
On the other hand, if there are a lot of players on the site, it may happen to one unlucky player, and then again a week later! That player will be posting that something's wrong with the dice!.....
-Scott
For example, you said you've attacked 20-30 armies v. 3 and lost it all, and the defender lost none. In the case of 20 armies, that's nine rolls in a row. 29% ** 9 = .0015%. That about one chance in 69,000.
So, yea, something like that maybe you'll see once in a limetime of playing these games. If you see it frequently, that's evidence that something is wrong.
On the other hand, if there are a lot of players on the site, it may happen to one unlucky player, and then again a week later! That player will be posting that something's wrong with the dice!.....
-Scott
-
Thezzaruz
- Posts: 1093
- Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 2:10 pm
- Gender: Male
- Location: OTF most of the time.
- Contact:
Re: Dice Improbability
No it doesn't...Wayne MacIsaac wrote: The whole dice probability system has to be redone.
Go get the dice analyzer script and then come back after a some thousand rolls, if your stats still are off the expected path then we'll talk.