Question about dice...

[Timminz]

Thezzaruz have you or anyone else looked into the calls of the dice being "streaky", not sure how to monitor that claim to prove it one way or another ?

It has been studied, and what some people consider "streaky", is actually just a manifestation of "random". If there were never any streakiness to the rolls, that would indicate a lack of randomness.

[xelabale]

Cool - dice problem solved. What about the posters?

KLOBBER - highly predictable ad hom and deliberate attempts to be pedantic and derail the thread
xelabale - slightly random but predictably idiotic - not sure whether he's being an idiot on purpose
timminz - doggedly predictable sticking to the statistical data
LordThor - streaky, several posts of double 1s then suddenly hit a purple patch of 6s late on - will it be enough?
Thezzaruz - deviant, anyone who spends that much time on stats must be deviant, right
Others - too far down the page for me to remember the names, they are all without fail randomly predictable streaky intensity masters

[LordThor]

Cool - dice problem solved. What about the posters?

LordThor - streaky, several posts of double 1s then suddenly hit a purple patch of 6s late on - will it be enough?

Not when my CC dice have only three sides and a non random eliment clearly statisticaly streaky.... or freaky...


Thanks for the responses Thezzaruz, Timminz.. very informative...

[Mr_Adams]

what's the probability of 4 losing to 1?

[murphy16]

Or how about losing 56v16, it happened to me.

[Timminz]

4v1 loss = 8.34%
56v16 loss = .0001%

[KLOBBER]

4v1 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not
56v16 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not.

It is impossible to accurately predict any percentages prior to the assault outcome, because the dice are unpredictable.

[xelabale]

4v1 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not
56v16 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not.

It is impossible to accurately predict any percentages prior to the assault outcome, because the dice are unpredictable.

Not trying to predict, it's merely a probability. But then you knew that anyway.
Definition of probability:

(1): the ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible outcomes (2): the chance that a given event will occur

Nothing about prediction there. Notice the use of the future form "will" in the definition. Probability is about assessing future outcomes not interpreting past results.
But then you already knew that.

[KLOBBER]

"Assessing future outcomes" is just cheap and unimaginative word jugglery for "predicting."

Accurately assessing future dice percentage outcomes is impossible on this site, as the dice are unpredictable.

No matter what ridiculous terms you make up to replace the word "predicting," the dice are still unpredictable.

But then you already knew....

Actually, no, you didn't know that, nor much of anything else.

[xelabale]

Probability isn't prediction

[Timminz]

Why is it so difficult for some people to understand the difference between something having already happened (or not), and the probability of it happening?

[maniacmath17]

Guys it's over. KLOBBER lost the argument a while ago when he admitted that he believed the attacker has the advantage. This of course is true as we can calculate the probability of the different outcomes in a 3 v 2 situation which gives a slight edge to the attacker. The problem is that with the way KLOBBER views the dice, there is no way to figure out whether the defender or the attacker will have the advantage. This is because he thinks the dice are purely unpredictable and therefore, the probability for any attack is impossible to determine.

I asked him like 4 or 5 times how he could know the attacker has the advantage given his views on dice, and he ignored the question every time, lol. So if you do decide to continue arguing with him and find yourself stuck at some point, just ask him this question and he will have no answer

As I already posted, but you conveniently ignored:

"Simple dice manifestation is not the only factor at play in attacks. Attacker has advantage because he often has a greater number of dice in play than defender, therefore his likelihood of prevailing with higher numbers is heightened. Comparative advantage between attacker and defender is partially predictable. In cases where attacker and defender roll same number of dice, this advantage is nonexistent.

Dice themselves are still unpredictable in all cases, however."

There's the second time I answered that question. Is your brain dull enough to require a third?

KLOBBER, I will try to explain this to you very carefully as this may be shocking news to you. When the attacker and the defender roll the same number, the tie goes the the defender!

So you can't just compare the number of dice to figure out the advantage, as you just tried to do because that doesn't factor in the ties that the defender wins. Either show me a different way you came to this conclusion, or admit that based on your faulty understanding of dice, there is no way for you to know about the attackers advantage.

[KLOBBER]

...you can't just compare the number of dice to figure out the advantage, as you just tried to do....

I didn't try to do that. Your understanding of the dice is faulty.

[xelabale]

4v1 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not
56v16 loss = 100% if it happened, 0% if it did not.

It is impossible to accurately predict any percentages prior to the assault outcome, because the dice are unpredictable.

your 2nd statement is true, your first is not. You cannot use probability retrospectively because it is now a result. But then you already knew that.

[KLOBBER]

According to you, I know a whole lot.



I also know that you're dead wrong about dice probabilities.

[owenshooter]

honestly, what is the debate? Klobber pretty much has owned you all in this, and i don't know why you just won't let him have the last word, and let the thread drift down the forums. that way, none of us get to watch the continual ass kicking the Windmill is handing to Don Quixote!! GO KLOBBER!-0

[JoshyBoy]

honestly, what is the debate? Klobber pretty much has owned you all in this, and i don't know why you just won't let him have the last word, and let the thread drift down the forums. that way, none of us get to watch the continual ass kicking the Windmill is handing to Don Quixote!! GO KLOBBER!-0

here here!

Well said owen!

Go Klobber!

[xelabale]

According to you, I know a whole lot.



I also know that you're dead wrong about dice probabilities.

What have I said about dice probability that is wrong? Please explain.

[owenshooter]

According to you, I know a whole lot.


I also know that you're dead wrong about dice probabilities.

What have I said about dice probability that is wrong? Please explain.

AHEM... Klobber, if you don't mind, i'll field this question... the answer to your question, in short, is simply EVERYTHING... period...-0

[xelabale]

quote me

[JoshyBoy]

Ok.

quote me

There you go... happy now?

Sorry but I hate to see a player (Klobber) being continually attacked. He's been doing this shit longer than you, so sharrup.

[xelabale]

Length of trolling time doesn't confer correctness.

I'm not attacking anyone. I've been told that everything I said about dice probability was wrong. Could someone kindly show me my incorrectness. A simple quote and an explanation will suffice. Or you could withdraw the statement.

[JoshyBoy]

Length of trolling time doesn't confer correctness.

If you believe Klobber is guilty of trolling do something about it. For example, Cheating and Abuse section of the forum. Don't make pathetic little snide remarks like that one. It's not funny and no-one appreciates it.

I've been told that everything I said about dice probability was wrong. Could someone kindly show me my incorrectness. A simple quote and an explanation will suffice. Or you could withdraw the statement.

That's Klobber's "responsibility". And neither he nor I will withdraw any statement made in this thread.

[xelabale]

Length of trolling time doesn't confer correctness.

If you believe Klobber is guilty of trolling do something about it. For example, Cheating and Abuse section of the forum. Don't make pathetic little snide remarks like that one. It's not funny and no-one appreciates it.

Who says I was talking about klobber?

I've been told that everything I said about dice probability was wrong. Could someone kindly show me my incorrectness. A simple quote and an explanation will suffice. Or you could withdraw the statement.

That's Klobber's "responsibility". And neither he nor I will withdraw any statement made in this thread.

Surely that's up to Klobber to decide, or are you his spokesman?.

Lots of attack but nothing showing the errors in my posts.

[JoshyBoy]

Length of trolling time doesn't confer correctness.

If you believe Klobber is guilty of trolling do something about it. For example, Cheating and Abuse section of the forum. Don't make pathetic little snide remarks like that one. It's not funny and no-one appreciates it.

Who says I was talking about klobber?

I've been told that everything I said about dice probability was wrong. Could someone kindly show me my incorrectness. A simple quote and an explanation will suffice. Or you could withdraw the statement.

That's Klobber's "responsibility". And neither he nor I will withdraw any statement made in this thread.

Surely that's up to Klobber to decide, or are you his spokesman?.

Lots of attack but nothing showing the errors in my posts.

Well who were you talking about? TheJolly Green Giant?

And you sir, are just refusing to accept the truths which Klobber has spoken.

i am not his spokesperson. I am one of his friend. Friends? You know what those are don't you?

Oh and he doesnt seem to be posting