probability of success

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timlamb
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probability of success

Post by timlamb »

well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go
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Kugelblitz22
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Post by Kugelblitz22 »

Holy shit!

This is a whole new paradigm!

All hail timlamb!
skgs2006
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Post by skgs2006 »

i knew being a acturial technician was not a complete waste of time
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Aegnor
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Re: probability of success

Post by Aegnor »

timlamb wrote:well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go


Oh no my friend, you are talking about actual math here. When you play Conquerclub you enter the realm of CC Math which means:

3 against 1 (When you just HAVE TO WIN) --> 80% for your opponent to roll a 6. 98% you are going to pull out 36-46 hairs out of your head.


Now that's more like it.
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Evil Semp
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Post by Evil Semp »

Yes Timlamb you have to go back to school to learn CC math. It is a whole new world here.
gerry22
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Re: probability of success

Post by gerry22 »

Aegnor wrote:
timlamb wrote:well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go


Oh no my friend, you are talking about actual math here. When you play Conquerclub you enter the realm of CC Math which means:

3 against 1 (When you just HAVE TO WIN) --> 80% for your opponent to roll a 6. 98% you are going to pull out 36-46 hairs out of your head.


Now that's more like it.


yep. f*** all assumptions. When they tell you the dice are random, it's complete B*****!!!!! They anything but, remember what said when you as Aegnor said £pull the hairs from head".
vae victis "woe to the Defeated" - Brennus
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Cirus
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Post by Cirus »

Yeah i agree these dice cannot be calculated, I'm almost ceratin at times winning a game does not depend on ability/stratedgy it depends on dice!!!!! seems some people get a better rub of the green than others!
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Dariune
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Post by Dariune »

Cirus wrote:Yeah i agree these dice cannot be calculated, I'm almost ceratin at times winning a game does not depend on ability/stratedgy it depends on dice!!!!! seems some people get a better rub of the green than others!


I think the dice can be harshly unfair and all that but i expect if you look at a persons overall dice that they will be roughly equal to yours. I doubt very much if the dice favour people to a large extent.

Feels like it sometimes though
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Cirus
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Post by Cirus »

yeah i do totally agree.

But take this for example - i'm playing like 4 or 5 doubles games against the same players, i feel i have had strong stratedgy etc but it seems when i really need to beat there defence almost always with more attcakers their defenders win. Its been like that acrosss most of these matchs and then when they attack i get my ass kicked. Either all my bad rolls come at once or me and my partner are crap players!!

Frustrating
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Dariune
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Post by Dariune »

If it makes you feel any better i just had eight turns on eight games and didnt get a single win attack (i take two off of them) Those turns have ruined 5 out of the 8 games
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sully800
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Re: probability of success

Post by sully800 »

timlamb wrote:well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go


Here's an easier table :wink:

Image

Your numbers against one defending dice were good but everything against 2 defending dice seems to be wrong.
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Dariune
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Post by Dariune »

Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both
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Wisse
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Post by Wisse »

Dariune wrote:Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both

or he just uses a calculator :roll:
Image Image
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Dariune
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Post by Dariune »

Wisse wrote:
Dariune wrote:Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both

or he just uses a calculator :roll:

Exactly! a genius :)
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