railfrog wrote:ok Mr C......so what happens if you are last to go in a 8 man/no cards and all the good spaces have been taken?
Before I consider railfrog's doomsday scenario (and I remember knocking him out early of an 8 man 2.1 in the exact situation he describes

), I would just say that experience teaches all...
I joined two kinds of large 2.1 games after the bulk of this guide was written; one (by my design) was to invite two or three specialists + others less well equipped for the format. The concept was that enough mistakes would be made to allow a definite advantage for one of the principle actors (most likely) to take the game by the scruff on the neck and pull through by round 50-60.
Game 3928869
Game 3908069
Game 4491004
However, my concept was flawed. The stronger players (some from good positions/some not) gradually worked there way into strong positions, eliminated the weak, and then settled in for the very long game. Specialist 2.1 singles players just don't make mistakes, read the intentions of the opposition rounds ahead, and the possibility of gaining a definite advantage seems to be nigh on impossible. However, the opening 60-70 rounds of these games was played at a very high level indeed, as the stronger players built their empires around, through or over the rest.
However in these games...
Game 4524385 note: cpurcell played with a grudge (against me) in this game and a few got taken out in the carnage. Nonetheless, once he was eliminated, the board settled.
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Game 4810881
...we see a board where every single player is of a high standard and, simply, no one dies. The better players did manage to carve out larger empires (IMO), but are completely unable to actually progress to the win. I wouldn't say I don't have plans (based on income or the likely glacial shifts in the position) but they are so long-term as to be not worth considering until 2010.
So I expected the second set of games to progress as they did, but had hopes that the first would stay open, competitive and finish within 100 rounds. In this I was wrong. I suspect now that you could put railfrog, scholtz and I with 5 cooks playing blind and the three would still manage to avoid one winning. Maybe that example is a little too extreme, but you take my point.
With regards to railfrog's point, it must be admitted that every once in a while you are just going to get knocked out (though in the very high level games it is perversely easier to stay in from an awful position...as your likely threats are all to aware of
their likely threats.) I think what will kill you would be a combination of awful position + awful dice +
incorrect opening strategy.
Placed in the position described, I would consider these factors:
1. Which spot is least likely to face an invasion from a superior force around rounds 4-6? For example, you might have a couple in Amazonas, but if another player looks like having a fast parana development, well, you're going to get eaten. So I'd be looking to find a spot (no matter how useless) that isn't likely to be in anyone's short-term invasion plans. If that meant stacking British Claim, then so be it. In the end, as railfrog well knows, it is far better to survive than die trying to get 'a position' you won't hold. Once the fighting begins, that British Claim stack might be abe to slip into South Africa in time...
2. What are the other players likely to do? Some players are more expansionist/aggressive (like me!), others more consensual/defensive. In the position described I would certainly consider if there is a player on the board likely to let me live 'to avoid a fight' and stack up next to him. Others, you know they'll murder you in your sleep given half the chance...better to stay away from them!
3. Finally, a good bit of diplomacy. Announce in gamechat that you are royally screwed positionally, and that you may as well sit back and watch the show. "Don't mind me..." etc etc. Chat amusingly on the board, be a 'fun kinda guy' and you might avoid an early kill as you seem so unthreatening and just, well, harmless. One of the reasons I often chat on the board is that I do believe it minimises the chance of getting hit.
In the end however, there is the odd occasion where you are just going to get wiped and there's nothing you can do about it. However, it has only happened to me once (that I can remember) and, ironically, it was a blind cook who took me out! 2.1 has enough starting position for 8 players to get in, however if I was faced by 2 in The Horn (going last), when another player had 8 in Africa with Western Europe nigh on secured on round 1...well I'd run off to my 3 in the claims and start stacking. I think you would be less likely to get killed.
Oh and Fitz, still getting the wins 6 months on...
Mr Changsha (World 2.1) +977/ 21 from 42 (50%) Warmongerer (80%) Equalitarian (0.811) (includes 8 man dubs)
Mr Changsha (4-8 man singles flat rate/no cards sunny all maps) +1455/ 29 from 60 (48%) Warmongerer (82%) Equalitarian (0.809)
...though my interest has shifted to the 8 man dubs format which in my view (and this I have tested this out with v.high level teams) doesn't stalemate.