there are times when talent and experience aren't worth a rusty dime.
times when your oponent hit only straight 6s and when he gets mixed sets and all you get is red ones. but in the majority of times i found out that studying your oponents really pays off.
a weak tactician will allways go with the same strategy.
i've played a lot of risk (real cardboard game) and seen people that always start in australia and then simply stay and wait to build troops. or start in south america and advance towards north am. spending a few minutes to read game logs really helps and in time you'll learn some players and know their style.
now there are a few player types that you meet in different games:
agressor: he starts attacking everyone from the start expands quickly and in most cases dies quickly. he never pays attention to fortification and goes for the big bonus.
carefull builder: he conquers one by one and fortifies all his territories with 2-3 troops (porcupine defence). he has high chances of surviving to the finish and it's a tough nut to crack but he lacks courage and this is why he sometimes misses the chance to close a game.
the observer: gets a continent and gradually fortifies it. he only attacks for cards (if there are cards) he's very patient and keeps an eye out for any weak victims to finish them off. he does not venture far from his continent and that's his weak point because others my become too strong and wipe him.
the bonus breaker: it's easy he runs around the map breaking bonuses. without troop support from an owned continent he is a quick kill. this tactic goes nicely if you have a well fortified continent because you keep getting the bonus while the others don't.
the evasionist: he always avoids conflicts. he gets a continent stays for a while and quickly moves if a threat comes near. also an easy target. all this moving around bleeds his armies dry and he's eventually killed.
the unpredictable guy: you never know what he's up to. he might attack or he might run, he might come after you or go for another. the toughest one to kill if he knows what he's doing.
there's also the deadbeat and the village idiot (this one attacks 3 vs100, is not concerned about getting a continent or breaking a bonus, he basically does only stupid things.)
becoming great is not an easy task and some people will never get there because they lack basic qualities like patience intelligence or luck.
but if you have a certain degree of inteligence, if you strategize, plan carefully assume risk only when needed and analyze your oponents you're halfway there, the other half is playing doubles games
and one more thing. psichology. this one really helps. force the others to do what you want. for example in a game we were 3 players and 2 of us had a continent. i had a small 2 army bonus and the other a nice 5 army bonus. the third player was the weakest. i had the oportunity to exchange cards and break the bonus but i noticed the weak player also had enough cards to exchange. it's simple logic. i attack and break the other guy's bonus and weaken both armies and the the small guy exchanges cards and kicks us both. what i did was forget the exchange and attack a 1 army territory (to get the card) and then i fortified myself even more at the border with the other strong guy leaving the other border rather poorly defended (just 3 troops i think). the weak one exchanged and broke the other one's bonus weakening both. exactly as i had hoped.
there are plenty of situations when you can force somebody to do your work and they won't even realize it. but sometimes they won't get the hint and this tactic might work against you. so think twice.
“In the beginning God said, the four-dimensional divergence of an antisymmetric, second rank tensor equals zero, and there was light, and it was good. And on the seventh day he rested.”- Michio Kaku
