Something Broken, or just Bad Luck? (Dice Pwn)

[Epsilonymous]

Howdy all,

I have had a terrible, terrible phenomenon happen to be so many times in the past several games that im starting to wonder if either something is broken, or if im just having terrible, terrible luck.

Routinely i have had armies go up against a territory with one measly unit, and get completely wiped out. The most recent occurrence of this was a 7 vs. 1, which i continued to lose until it was back to the starting point of 4 vs. 1 and i didn't want to go past there.

there have been numerous other occaisions of this as well. 5 vs. 1, resulting in me losing all 4 possible troops; 3 vs. 1, with the same result.

is something broken, or is it just me?

[drunkmonkey]

Bad luck. It happens to us all.

[Epsilonymous]

arrrrrgh, thats a shame. i was really hoping for something to be broken thanks though

[trinicardinal]

Sorry bud, I had the same problem recently too

[AndyDufresne]

Have you looked into using the 'Dice Analyzer' to keep track of your dice, and see if you are getting any skewed results overall?

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5655

And have you looked into using 'Dice Streaks' to see if you are experiencing unusual hot and cold streaks?

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 7&t=114183


--Andy

[jefjef]

Crap manipulation. Thanks cc.

[Jackets55]

yes something is broken but for everyone and none of the powers to be want to acknowledge it. Just smile and take it. Just wait until someone attacks your 10 with their 3 and wins without losing any armies, you will really think something is broken at that point.

[SirSebstar]

i recently won a 5-35 that way.. ofcourse it was remembered as usually the other way, but that was fun....lol

[Wildcat57]

I had this problem as well. I lost a 5 vs 1, losing 4 armies and put another 5 on it in the next round just to lose all 5 again. so I lost 9 troops in a row, the other 0.
In another game I wasn't able to conquer the last troop an opponent had with my 4 troops. In a 3rd game it was again a 4-1 situation, again lost everything. it happened 4 times in 3 games in the last 2 days. maybe it happened before, once in a while, once a month but never as much as in these days. and while one can have a lot of bad luck, that is really highly improbable. take some real dice and try to do that... impossible. there must be something wrong here...

[drunkmonkey]

I had this problem as well. I lost a 5 vs 1, losing 4 armies and put another 5 on it in the next round just to lose all 5 again. so I lost 9 troops in a row, the other 0.
In another game I wasn't able to conquer the last troop an opponent had with my 4 troops. In a 3rd game it was again a 4-1 situation, again lost everything. it happened 4 times in 3 games in the last 2 days. maybe it happened before, once in a while, once a month but never as much as in these days. and while one can have a lot of bad luck, that is really highly improbable. take some real dice and try to do that... impossible. there must be something wrong here...

You have a 0.01298% chance of losing 9 attacking troops to one defender. Far from likely; even further from impossible. If those 3 games were the only three turns you ever played, I'd say something might be wrong. However, I have a sneaking suspicion you're not reporting all of your rolls...

Edit: That percentage is wrong. That's for a 9v1 attack, which has better odds than a 4v1 and a 5v1 attack. You have a 2.85% chance of losing the first, and a 0.97% chance of losing the second. I believe that makes a 0.028% chance of losing both.

[nebsmith]

I don't think you can multiply the odds like that. Your chance of winning one battle dosen't affect your chance of winning a second battle.
If your odds for the single battles are right you will lose 3 in 100 4v1's and 1 in 100 5v1's. With the number of attacks of that size you make you're going to see a lot of losses.

I've only been playing here for 2 months but the dice streaks that happen seem no different from rolling actual dice, which can do some really nasty things to you. I base this on playing 1000's of games controlled by real dice, Risk! among them.

[drunkmonkey]

I don't think you can multiply the odds like that. Your chance of winning one battle dosen't affect your chance of winning a second battle.
If your odds for the single battles are right you will lose 3 in 100 4v1's and 1 in 100 5v1's. With the number of attacks of that size you make you're going to see a lot of losses.

I've only been playing here for 2 months but the dice streaks that happen seem no different from rolling actual dice, which can do some really nasty things to you. I base this on playing 1000's of games controlled by real dice, Risk! among them.

You can multiply, you just have to know how to look at them. The multiplied percentage is the odds of losing both, before you start. Once you start rolling, that percentage is no longer applicable.

That part's really not relevant. What I was trying to show is that even a very low percentage is still possible. I see too many people saying things like "I had a 9x.x% chance of winning, but I lost. The site is rigged!"

[nebsmith]

yes, I suppose that's what I meant, once you start rolling what happened in the past is irrelevant and it has no relevance to future battles.

I would think If anyone could be bothered to collect every roll of the dice for a day they would find that the chance of rolling any particular number - attack or defense - would be 1 in 6, or very close.

I think the reccuring theme in these dice threads is a lack of understanding of the difference between "impossible" and "unlikely". The chance of something happening has nothing to do with when it will happen and, I suppose, as the percentages apply to all die rolls, forever, nothing to do with how often it will happen in a short space of time.

So in answer to the origional question. Not broken or bad luck, just random.