CptJMoney wrote:The chances of them getting the Norway spoil is over 100 to 1.
Each time. 3 players (besides you), 20 rounds, that's 60 cards. All of a sudden it's much more likely, and that games likely to last a lot more than 20 rounds
and africa's a relatively common bonus to go for amongst noobs who don't know the game very well yet but aren't stupid enough to go for asia.
In fact, if every single thing on that map was the same, except you shifted it so that the atlantic ocean made the borders so that africa was on the side of the map and asia/oceania were in the middle, africa could be one of the best bonuses, if not the best. Speaking from personal experience on both sides of this equation, even vets often don't think about the fact that the world is round on the whole world maps, at least not right away
in regards to your actual plan, I don't like it. With noobs playing against you like that, they make one bad mistake, all of a sudden one guy gets a 50 deploy, and everyone is screwed, including you. If you're not going for bonuses, at least not many, they'll have the opportunity to have bigger stacks than you.
Your plan will work if they (do the stupid thing and) kill each other off, but there are other ways to be stupid, and many of them leave you with a loss.