The Improbable Always Wins....WTF?

[buZZkiLL13]

I've played Risk in real life, unbelievable bad luck happens there too. Get over it.

[MNDuke]

I've played Risk in real life, unbelievable bad luck happens there too. Get over it.

I'm not denying that. Never did. I'm saying that it happens at far too great of a rate here. That is all and I shouldn't have to get over it.

[natty dread]

I'm saying that it happens at far too great of a rate here. That is all and I shouldn't have to get over it.

Yeah, you keep saying it, but in the end that's just your perception. Others have other perceptions. As long as you don't back up your claim with some kind of evidence, it will always be just your perception.

That was then this is now.

Oh? You're saying things would go differently this time?

Be real for a second here. Do you really suggest that if we got an outside expert here who'd examine the dice, and if he couldn't find anything wrong with them... would that really stop you from complaining the next time you perceive to be getting "unfairly streaky dice"? Do you think it would stop others?

Because, you know, somehow I doubt it. Oh, it might be a bit more quiet for a week or two, but then the first dice bitch thread would go like: "Ok, I don't care what your so-called experts say, but I just lost a Xv1 for Y times, this is ridiculous, fix the dice!"

And we would be back to square 1.

[Woodruff]

I must say it would be nice to have an independent auditor come in and evaluate the programming and dice.

This was done years ago. It didn't stop the dice complainers back then...

Yeah, they will never stop I guess, and never change.

I still like to post about it though,maybe one of them sees the light...

Nah. You will never be able to get through to those who don't want to see the light when it's easier to be blinded by their own ignorance. They don't even know why they stick up for a flawed system or why they fight so hard against those who notice something is wrong. It's not like they have anything to gain.

This is a very funny paragraph, given the context. You might want to check to realize that you're not in agreement with JelleR.

[buZZkiLL13]

It only happens more online because you roll more dice online. Think how many rolls and games you play simultaneously? Whereas in real life you play one game at a time, one turn at a time. Offline it's a much slower pace so it doesn't seem as if it happens as much as it does online. I've played other games online that depend on dice like backgammon, and people still complain about dice. It's really just a part of the game mang.

[jpreno]

I've played Risk in real life, unbelievable bad luck happens there too. Get over it.

I'm not denying that. Never did. I'm saying that it happens at far too great of a rate here. That is all and I shouldn't have to get over it.

So many people say things like "it happens at far too great a rate here"--but they don't provide evidence (other than anecdotal). And it's not that hard to prove (if true). Give me a premise--give me something I should watch for in my next 10 games and I'll monitor those events, and at the end we'll compare it's frequency v. what would have been expected if the die were truly random. I'll be open-minded here, but we have to agree to be methodical about proving it.

[rjhankey]

Bottom line -- we're all affected by the same dice -- and I could swear sometimes the dice are against me more on certain maps, but I have a feeling that's just a perception. I know I've had quite a few games where I've found myself in an unfavorable position because I expected too much out of the dice, but I've adjusted my playing style since then. True, like others, I still suffer from the "maybe next time" urge when continuing to roll on an attack.

[Tennisie]

for some reason I been struggling against single armies of late as well.

the other day I won 118 vs 135 and was pretty happy with 4 leftover.

in another game I lost 11 vs 1, losing 8 in a row and had to stop.

11 vs 1 is bad... but not completely ridiculous

winning 118 vs 135 is somewhat reasonable

11 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
10 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
9 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
8 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
7 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
6 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
5 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
4 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def

That means out of 24 rolls of the dice he was unable to defeat 1 dice 8 times consecutively. Not sure what planet you are from, but that seems highly improbable to me.

I lost 87 zip against 3 armies, so the above is likely to happen frequently.

[theBastard]

I can not repeat myself again, but I must. what the f*ck is this dice??? 11:4 and result 3:4!!!

[Valykrie]

The dice aren't messed up, it's just that anything can happen (though some are rare). That's why they call taking a risk "Rolling the dice."

[Valykrie]

for some reason I been struggling against single armies of late as well.

the other day I won 118 vs 135 and was pretty happy with 4 leftover.

in another game I lost 11 vs 1, losing 8 in a row and had to stop.

11 vs 1 is bad... but not completely ridiculous

winning 118 vs 135 is somewhat reasonable

11 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
10 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
9 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
8 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
7 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
6 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
5 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def
4 v 1 = rolling 3 attacking dice to 1 def

That means out of 24 rolls of the dice he was unable to defeat 1 dice 8 times consecutively. Not sure what planet you are from, but that seems highly improbable to me.

I lost 87 zip against 3 armies, so the above is likely to happen frequently.

You lost 87 to 3? and they didn't lose one troop?
That's incredibly unlikely. Cakculating the odds (By my math, a calculator, and a risk odds calculator), even if you only had 67 troops (I didn't feel like going any further), you're odds of winning are 99.99999999999999%. but you say you had 20 more troops than that and the enemy lost nothing? If that's true, you're very unlucky, and pretty dumb for continuing to attack all the down to 2 troops, where you're odds of winning are not in your favor, especially with you're luck.

[theBastard]

The dice aren't messed up, it's just that anything can happen (though some are rare). That's why they call taking a risk "Rolling the dice."

oh, come on. do not vindicate this with "it is just dice"... 11:4 and resutl 3:4... is here any chance that you guys (advocates of current dice) will admit that something is sometimes wrong?

[natty dread]

The dice aren't messed up, it's just that anything can happen (though some are rare). That's why they call taking a risk "Rolling the dice."

oh, come on. do not vindicate this with "it is just dice"... 11:4 and resutl 3:4... is here any chance that you guys (advocates of current dice) will admit that something is sometimes wrong?

That something is unlikely does not mean that it never happens.

Losing 11:4 is unlikely. But sometimes, even unlikely things happen. We wouldn't even exist otherwise.

[theBastard]

The dice aren't messed up, it's just that anything can happen (though some are rare). That's why they call taking a risk "Rolling the dice."

oh, come on. do not vindicate this with "it is just dice"... 11:4 and resutl 3:4... is here any chance that you guys (advocates of current dice) will admit that something is sometimes wrong?

That something is unlikely does not mean that it never happens.

Losing 11:4 is unlikely. But sometimes, even unlikely things happen. We wouldn't even exist otherwise.

natty, please. 11:4 and enemy had no lost units??? ok, sometimes 11:4 could lose, but result must be 3:2, 3:1, 4:3, 3:3, 4:2, 2:2...

[BIGMEANIE]

i think the problem is not that highly-unlikey dice-outcomes sometimes occur, but rather that these highly-unlikely outcomes happen more than they "should".

[Valykrie]

i think the problem is not that highly-unlikey dice-outcomes sometimes occur, but rather that these highly-unlikely outcomes happen more than they "should".

But there is no amount of times something "should" happen. It's all random. People who play Risk in real life know that those types of events happen just as much in real life as online.

[Valykrie]

The dice aren't messed up, it's just that anything can happen (though some are rare). That's why they call taking a risk "Rolling the dice."

oh, come on. do not vindicate this with "it is just dice"... 11:4 and resutl 3:4... is here any chance that you guys (advocates of current dice) will admit that something is sometimes wrong?

That something is unlikely does not mean that it never happens.

Losing 11:4 is unlikely. But sometimes, even unlikely things happen. We wouldn't even exist otherwise.

natty, please. 11:4 and enemy had no lost units??? ok, sometimes 11:4 could lose, but result must be 3:2, 3:1, 4:3, 3:3, 4:2, 2:2...

No, the result "must be" anything. I lost 18:5 once in real life.

[BIGMEANIE]

that is why i wrote should in quotations. of course i don't mean "should" in the strictest sense of the term. all i am saying is that extremely-unlikey outcomes seem to happen much more often than they are likely to happen, given the odds.

but thats really all im going to say, as it seems nothing really ever comes out of these threads.

[BIGMEANIE]

who are you, anyway? you have not finished one game yet you are quite active in the forums. just curious.

[Valykrie]

who are you, anyway? you have not finished one game yet you are quite active in the forums. just curious.

A Risk player who likes online forums.

[natty dread]

natty, please. 11:4 and enemy had no lost units??? ok, sometimes 11:4 could lose, but result must be 3:2, 3:1, 4:3, 3:3, 4:2, 2:2...

I'm going to choose 7 numbers between 0-9 at random.

1 5 2 4 9 1 7

There. The chances that I chose those exact numbers were 1 to 10 million, yet it just happened! Who could have known?

Again, if something is unlikely, it doesn't mean that it never happens. Sure, losing 11 to 4 without killing a single enemy is unlikely, but sometimes it happens. Given enough time, it is guaranteed to happen, eventually.




Also, as for the claim that it is unrealistic... crazy things can happen in war. To demonstrate, here's a story of something that happened in the 18th century war between Austria and Turkey:

So, in 1788, Austria was at war with Turkey. The Austrian army was marching down to clash with an advancing Turkish army in what is now Romania. Shenanigans ensued.

What happened was the Austrians set up camp for the night, and some scouts on horseback went out to check the immediate countryside for any armed Turks. They came across a band of gypsies with a shitload of schnapps for sale, which they eagerly bought and began drinking with a gusto rarely seen outside of a frat party.

Now imagine they're shitfaced.

A load of Austrian infantry were also out and about, and came across the group of scouts. They wanted to join the drinking. The boozy scouts refused and set up makeshift fortification in what probably seemed a really funny idea at the time. Things got heated, an argument broke out and someone got too excited and fired a shot.

What Happened Next?

All Hell broke loose, infantry and scouts firing wildly at each other. The infantry, in a state of confusion, began shouting that the Turks were attacking them. The scouts, even though it was they who were attacking their infantry, suddenly believed that there actually was a huge, swarthy, mustachioed Turkish army just behind them.

Filling their snazzy cavalry pants with rapidly escaping dinners, the scouts broke ranks and piled through the ranks of infantry. The infantry took this as a sign that the Turks were definitely there. They began a panicky withdrawal, all animosity forgotten in the face of the imaginary Turkish army.

Just when the whole affair couldn't get any stupider, it did. The Austrian army was made up of soldiers from several countries and they spoke different languages. So when the German-speaking officers started shouting "Halt! Halt!" in their own language, the non-German-speakers mistook it for cries of, "Allah! Allah!"

The whole frantic group of soldiers finally arrived back at the main camp. An officer there, in a moment of slapstick brilliance, reasoned that the charging, shouting men must be a Turkish attack, and ordered an artillery strike.

The entire camp then awoke to the sound of an enormous battle and they all did what every disciplined soldier would do at a time like this: ran away in different directions, firing wildly. The situation escalated until the army was called into a general retreat from the imaginary enemy. Finally, not wanting to miss out on the fun, the leader of the whole operation, Holy Roman Emperor Joseph II, got knocked off his horse and landed in a stream.

Who Won?

The only real winner here was magnificent stupidity. For a more tangible result, we'll say that the points went to the Turks, who arrived at the scene two days later to find almost 10,000 dead and wounded Austrians and, after they had all had a good laugh, promptly captured the town and surrounding countryside.

So, maybe your 11 troops also got drunk? Maybe they also all got themselves idiotically killed, without killing a single enemy? Like the story proves, things like that happen even in real life. So if you crave for realism... what can I say, it seems CC already has plenty.

[Haggis_McMutton]

natty, please. 11:4 and enemy had no lost units??? ok, sometimes 11:4 could lose, but result must be 3:2, 3:1, 4:3, 3:3, 4:2, 2:2...

I'm going to choose 7 numbers between 0-9 at random.

1 5 2 4 9 1 7

There. The chances that I chose those exact numbers were 1 to 10 million, yet it just happened! Who could have known?

Again, if something is unlikely, it doesn't mean that it never happens. Sure, losing 11 to 4 without killing a single enemy is unlikely, but sometimes it happens. Given enough time, it is guaranteed to happen, eventually.




Also, as for the claim that it is unrealistic... crazy things can happen in war. To demonstrate, here's a story of something that happened in the 18th century war between Austria and Turkey:

So, in 1788, Austria was at war with Turkey. The Austrian army was marching down to clash with an advancing Turkish army in what is now Romania. Shenanigans ensued.

What happened was the Austrians set up camp for the night, and some scouts on horseback went out to check the immediate countryside for any armed Turks. They came across a band of gypsies with a shitload of schnapps for sale, which they eagerly bought and began drinking with a gusto rarely seen outside of a frat party.

Now imagine they're shitfaced.

A load of Austrian infantry were also out and about, and came across the group of scouts. They wanted to join the drinking. The boozy scouts refused and set up makeshift fortification in what probably seemed a really funny idea at the time. Things got heated, an argument broke out and someone got too excited and fired a shot.

What Happened Next?

All Hell broke loose, infantry and scouts firing wildly at each other. The infantry, in a state of confusion, began shouting that the Turks were attacking them. The scouts, even though it was they who were attacking their infantry, suddenly believed that there actually was a huge, swarthy, mustachioed Turkish army just behind them.

Filling their snazzy cavalry pants with rapidly escaping dinners, the scouts broke ranks and piled through the ranks of infantry. The infantry took this as a sign that the Turks were definitely there. They began a panicky withdrawal, all animosity forgotten in the face of the imaginary Turkish army.

Just when the whole affair couldn't get any stupider, it did. The Austrian army was made up of soldiers from several countries and they spoke different languages. So when the German-speaking officers started shouting "Halt! Halt!" in their own language, the non-German-speakers mistook it for cries of, "Allah! Allah!"

The whole frantic group of soldiers finally arrived back at the main camp. An officer there, in a moment of slapstick brilliance, reasoned that the charging, shouting men must be a Turkish attack, and ordered an artillery strike.

The entire camp then awoke to the sound of an enormous battle and they all did what every disciplined soldier would do at a time like this: ran away in different directions, firing wildly. The situation escalated until the army was called into a general retreat from the imaginary enemy. Finally, not wanting to miss out on the fun, the leader of the whole operation, Holy Roman Emperor Joseph II, got knocked off his horse and landed in a stream.

Who Won?

The only real winner here was magnificent stupidity. For a more tangible result, we'll say that the points went to the Turks, who arrived at the scene two days later to find almost 10,000 dead and wounded Austrians and, after they had all had a good laugh, promptly captured the town and surrounding countryside.

So, maybe your 11 troops also got drunk? Maybe they also all got themselves idiotically killed, without killing a single enemy? Like the story proves, things like that happen even in real life. So if you crave for realism... what can I say, it seems CC already has plenty.

I think you've just found the solution.
Every time an unlikely win/loss is made CC needs to give us a story like that.

Brilliant.

[Woodruff]

natty, please. 11:4 and enemy had no lost units??? ok, sometimes 11:4 could lose, but result must be 3:2, 3:1, 4:3, 3:3, 4:2, 2:2...

I'm going to choose 7 numbers between 0-9 at random.

1 5 2 4 9 1 7

There. The chances that I chose those exact numbers were 1 to 10 million, yet it just happened! Who could have known?

Again, if something is unlikely, it doesn't mean that it never happens. Sure, losing 11 to 4 without killing a single enemy is unlikely, but sometimes it happens. Given enough time, it is guaranteed to happen, eventually.




Also, as for the claim that it is unrealistic... crazy things can happen in war. To demonstrate, here's a story of something that happened in the 18th century war between Austria and Turkey:

So, in 1788, Austria was at war with Turkey. The Austrian army was marching down to clash with an advancing Turkish army in what is now Romania. Shenanigans ensued.

What happened was the Austrians set up camp for the night, and some scouts on horseback went out to check the immediate countryside for any armed Turks. They came across a band of gypsies with a shitload of schnapps for sale, which they eagerly bought and began drinking with a gusto rarely seen outside of a frat party.

Now imagine they're shitfaced.

A load of Austrian infantry were also out and about, and came across the group of scouts. They wanted to join the drinking. The boozy scouts refused and set up makeshift fortification in what probably seemed a really funny idea at the time. Things got heated, an argument broke out and someone got too excited and fired a shot.

What Happened Next?

All Hell broke loose, infantry and scouts firing wildly at each other. The infantry, in a state of confusion, began shouting that the Turks were attacking them. The scouts, even though it was they who were attacking their infantry, suddenly believed that there actually was a huge, swarthy, mustachioed Turkish army just behind them.

Filling their snazzy cavalry pants with rapidly escaping dinners, the scouts broke ranks and piled through the ranks of infantry. The infantry took this as a sign that the Turks were definitely there. They began a panicky withdrawal, all animosity forgotten in the face of the imaginary Turkish army.

Just when the whole affair couldn't get any stupider, it did. The Austrian army was made up of soldiers from several countries and they spoke different languages. So when the German-speaking officers started shouting "Halt! Halt!" in their own language, the non-German-speakers mistook it for cries of, "Allah! Allah!"

The whole frantic group of soldiers finally arrived back at the main camp. An officer there, in a moment of slapstick brilliance, reasoned that the charging, shouting men must be a Turkish attack, and ordered an artillery strike.

The entire camp then awoke to the sound of an enormous battle and they all did what every disciplined soldier would do at a time like this: ran away in different directions, firing wildly. The situation escalated until the army was called into a general retreat from the imaginary enemy. Finally, not wanting to miss out on the fun, the leader of the whole operation, Holy Roman Emperor Joseph II, got knocked off his horse and landed in a stream.

Who Won?

The only real winner here was magnificent stupidity. For a more tangible result, we'll say that the points went to the Turks, who arrived at the scene two days later to find almost 10,000 dead and wounded Austrians and, after they had all had a good laugh, promptly captured the town and surrounding countryside.

So, maybe your 11 troops also got drunk? Maybe they also all got themselves idiotically killed, without killing a single enemy? Like the story proves, things like that happen even in real life. So if you crave for realism... what can I say, it seems CC already has plenty.

I think you've just found the solution.
Every time an unlikely win/loss is made CC needs to give us a story like that.
Brilliant.

That would be a lot of fun.

[theBastard]

beautifull story, natty

but I still tell you it is not answer on every times when dice is totaly abnormal. yes sometimes peculiar things should happend, but I had often stupid dice...

[Valykrie]

beautifull story, natty

but I still tell you it is not answer on every times when dice is totaly abnormal. yes sometimes peculiar things should happend, but I had often stupid dice...

Horrible grammar much?