Dice Stats

[carlpgoodrich]

Has anyone pointed out that this update (which I really like) can give someone more information in foggy games than they had previously? For an extreme example, say my opponent attacks 100 on 100 with an auto-assault. Lets assume the attacker wins, and I now do not have any territs that border the two territs in question. Before this update, I would have no information about how many of my oppent's troops survived, but now it is possible to just look at my recent "luck" to get an idea of how many troops my opponent lost. I am not complaining about this because it gives the same advantage to everyone, just pointing it out.

Just curious, why would you post about it in public if you've figured out a potential strategy that most people probably would NOT have figured out? You're either awfully kind or awfully dumb, one of the two.

Haha, good point. I guess I don't really consider it a strategy, though, just a new way for some people to get an advantage over others that is not a reflection of skill.

[JustCallMeStupid]

I am extremely confused on how to read the dice stats under my name I see assault and defend. So the assault I assume are me clicking attack, and the defend I assume is the enemy defending? Nevermind the luck part.

I just dont understand whose dice stats are where. On the opponent side, 'are the defend stats the dice I rolled when defending their attacks' or 'the dice my opponents rolled when I attacked them' I would really appreciate some more explanation in the help section so I can understand if I had a 20% luck or my opponents did when defending.

*EDIT: I completely understand the luck part. I just dont completely understand how to read the rows. Under my name is the attack row for when I attack someone and the defend row for when Im offline and someone attacked me in another game? Is this the correct way to read it?

Luck is easy my opponents currently have 23% attack luck and 30% defend luck. On the bright side my defend luck is +60% haha, but my attack luck is negative, and luck doesnt really tell you anything of how often you are winning attacks.

[TheForgivenOne]

I am extremely confused on how to read the dice stats under my name I see assault and defend. So the assault I assume are me clicking attack, and the defend I assume is the enemy defending? But then shouldnt the luck balance out to 0%? If im -15% how can the defend also be -15%. Then if I look in the opponent section all opponents assault luck is -3% while the defend luck is 20%.

I just dont understand whose dice stats are where. On the opponent side, 'are the defend stats the dice I rolled when defending their attacks' or 'the dice my opponents rolled when I attacked them' I would really appreciate some more explanation in the help section so I can understand if I had a 20% luck or my opponents did when defending.

Luck is based on how high or low above the average roll (Being 3.5) is. (I think)

[ender516]

I am extremely confused on how to read the dice stats under my name I see assault and defend. So the assault I assume are me clicking attack, and the defend I assume is the enemy defending? But then shouldnt the luck balance out to 0%? If im -15% how can the defend also be -15%. Then if I look in the opponent section all opponents assault luck is -3% while the defend luck is 20%.

I just dont understand whose dice stats are where. On the opponent side, 'are the defend stats the dice I rolled when defending their attacks' or 'the dice my opponents rolled when I attacked them' I would really appreciate some more explanation in the help section so I can understand if I had a 20% luck or my opponents did when defending.

Luck is based on how high or low above the average roll (Being 3.5) is. (I think)

On the My Dice Stats page, there is a link to the Help page section: About the dice. Question 22 gives the details of luck calculations.

[danfrank]

These statistics only go up to 25 rolls ? How does this help for determining long term statistics ?

[Leehar]

These statistics only go up to 25 rolls ? How does this help for determining long term statistics ?

Overall stats?

[danfrank]

These statistics only go up to 25 rolls ? How does this help for determining long term statistics ?

Overall stats?

DUH Thanks for pointing that out !!

[blindman30]

Is this thier way of saying the dice rolls are not messed up? Just because I have roughly 3.51 across the board doesnt mean they its normal.

[ender516]

Is this thier way of saying the dice rolls are not messed up? Just because I have roughly 3.51 across the board doesnt mean they its normal.

Actually, they can't get much more normal that that.

[blindman30]

Is this thier way of saying the dice rolls are not messed up? Just because I have roughly 3.51 across the board doesnt mean they its normal.

Actually, they can't get much more normal that that.

It looks normal but in games I have noticed a few things.

1. The first few rounds you will have lopsided rolls then once the game is technically over then the rolls will become the other way around but the one with the bad rolls in the beginning has no way to catch up even when he gets great rolls. Hard to win when you are down 30 men to 5 on deployment even though you are now killing 3x more men then you lose a round.

2. I have seen games where vs a player I would lose 90% to his 10% but then attacking neutrals I could not lose.

3. Lately, as in the last week I have also lost 3vs1's at a absurd rate. 2kills to 20losses, 4 kills to 16 losses and one even was like 11kills to 60 losses. This is both attacking and defending not just defending

Thats what I mean when I say just because they average out to 3.5 doesnt mean there isnt something wrong with them. Too many games lately have been lopsided for me in both ways win and lose. Yes it can happen but it shouldnt be happening as much as it does. Losing 10men to 1 can happen but it should basically be rare. Anyone know the math to see how many times out of a 1000 that you can explect to lose 10 men to 1.

What I would like to see with the dice rolls is stats per game that can be broken down vs each player and neutrals. Even the first 25 battles vs each then the next 25 etc.

Just played first game since this post. Game 9225680.
#1 and #3 strikes again. Going to see how many more games till the next time BRB.

[Darkended Blade]

Sometimes you get streaks of a certain value dice over a prolongued period, and yes that does happen more than you would expect. But they all balence out overall, so unlucky streaks will nearly always be repaid with luckier ones.

Also, i doubt the dice generator is factoring into account when you are attacking a player and when you are attacking neutrals blindman. So stop complaining

D.b.

[aalii]

s far as I'm concerned it is a statistic I don't need nor care about. If you don't mind, please remove it.
Thanks

[Tennisie]

No doubt the statistics will show that everyone has about the same "luck" and will help convince skeptics that the dice are truly random. However, it does not solve the real dice problem, which is streakiness. To clarify, streakiness is the wild swings in luck that occur over short spans of dice rolls, typically less than 20. Over spans of more than about 20 rolls, lucky and unlucky streaks tends to cancel each other.

The problem is that most Conquer Club games involve short spans of dice rolls which exacerbates the streakiness and is very frustrating when one is trying to develop a winning strategy. One solution to this problem is to add the following selection to the Start A Game form:

"Intensity Cubes" with two options:

1. "Classic" - this would use the current system of 3 attack dice and 2 defense dice maximum.

2. "One Die Per Army" - this would use the Axis and Allies system of one die per army for both attacker and defender (no predetermined maximum). The current method of comparing the highest dice, next highest dice, etc. could still be used to determine how many armies the attacker and defender each lose.

[carlpgoodrich]

The problem is that most Conquer Club games involve short spans of dice rolls which exacerbates the streakiness and is very frustrating when one is trying to develop a winning strategy. One solution to this problem is to add the following selection to the Start A Game form:

If streaks in the dice ruin your strategy, then it wasn't a very good strategy. Dealing with the uncertainty in the dice is what makes CC games so hard and so much fun. If you don't like this aspect, then play City Mogul, where luck is minimized.

[AndyDufresne]

I think in the distant future there are some feature upgrades we could make to the Dice Stats to make things even more transparent and more data available. At least we are stepping in the right direction!


--Andy

[oldrisky44]

No doubt the statistics will show that everyone has about the same "luck" and will help convince skeptics that the dice are truly random. However, it does not solve the real dice problem, which is streakiness. To clarify, streakiness is the wild swings in luck that occur over short spans of dice rolls, typically less than 20. Over spans of more than about 20 rolls, lucky and unlucky streaks tends to cancel each other.

The problem is that most Conquer Club games involve short spans of dice rolls which exacerbates the streakiness and is very frustrating when one is trying to develop a winning strategy. One solution to this problem is to add the following selection to the Start A Game form:

"Intensity Cubes" with two options:

1. "Classic" - this would use the current system of 3 attack dice and 2 defense dice maximum.

2. "One Die Per Army" - this would use the Axis and Allies system of one die per army for both attacker and defender (no predetermined maximum). The current method of comparing the highest dice, next highest dice, etc. could still be used to determine how many armies the attacker and defender each lose.

3. "Choose Your Preferred Results" - This would allow the attacker to choose his own results, thus allowing him to ensure that his tactics will work out exactly as planned. Instead of using randomly generated streaky dice, the attacker would simply preset each of the 5 dice to whatever numbers he thinks is fair. I for my part would choose all 4's for me (attacker) and all 3's for you (defender).

[karelpietertje]

The point is simply that whether your dice were higher than average doesn't matter.
For the game, it's important how many troops you lost. You can have higher average dice than your opponent but still lose more troops, for instance if all your sixes get paired up with your opponents ones.

[ender516]

So from your point of view, and I tend to agree, the battle outcomes are the statistics that matter. Happily, those are recorded and reported too.

[danfrank]

Is this thier way of saying the dice rolls are not messed up? Just because I have roughly 3.51 across the board doesnt mean they its normal.

Actually, they can't get much more normal that that.

It looks normal but in games I have noticed a few things.

1. The first few rounds you will have lopsided rolls then once the game is technically over then the rolls will become the other way around but the one with the bad rolls in the beginning has no way to catch up even when he gets great rolls. Hard to win when you are down 30 men to 5 on deployment even though you are now killing 3x more men then you lose a round.

2. I have seen games where vs a player I would lose 90% to his 10% but then attacking neutrals I could not lose.

3. Lately, as in the last week I have also lost 3vs1's at a absurd rate. 2kills to 20losses, 4 kills to 16 losses and one even was like 11kills to 60 losses. This is both attacking and defending not just defending

Thats what I mean when I say just because they average out to 3.5 doesnt mean there isnt something wrong with them. Too many games lately have been lopsided for me in both ways win and lose. Yes it can happen but it shouldnt be happening as much as it does. Losing 10men to 1 can happen but it should basically be rare. Anyone know the math to see how many times out of a 1000 that you can explect to lose 10 men to 1.

What I would like to see with the dice rolls is stats per game that can be broken down vs each player and neutrals. Even the first 25 battles vs each then the next 25 etc.

Just played first game since this post. Game 9225680.
#1 and #3 strikes again. Going to see how many more games till the next time BRB.

hey blindman, didn`t know how to take ender out the quote but i am going to address you i agree with alot of what you stated in your early points , i want to believe that there are other factors determining dice outcomes as you imply in your first bullet point. I also believe that rank plays a roll too.. I have been told that is not the case.. In a similar comparison i have played online poker for many years now and the same logic as it is applied to the cards has to be applied to the dice.. As hundreds of hands are dealt in a minute , the same has to be thought when rolling the dice . therefore you will see the crazy and insane with you and against you more often..