danhulbert wrote:Gregor,
I instructed teal to attack green on the turn you mention. The reason I did that was because he was already almost 2x the size of the next biggest stack and I wanted him reduced in size before I tried to hold another bonus. Left unchecked, he was going to be a big problem I also figured our team was the only team in position to deal with him at the time. He ended up growing very large anyway in the end and had a huge impact on the game.
Bottom line, the potential damage he was capable of was getting to be higher than any other stack.
Very good analysis, though . . . very appreciated.
Dan
This is, that I want to say.
I do agree, that green a potential danger would be a threat in the future, but not at that time (round 10/picture 12), he had only 20. Green could be only as a threat, if he could take and hold Alps. He couldn't do it at that time. I think he needed 4 extra rounds (+12 extra troops). With 32 troops he could take Alps and still had 25 troops (38% chance), 5 troops in 5 regions, 20 troops on 3 borders, he could split them to 6, 6 and 7 or 5, 5 and 8.
Also green would need 4 extra rounds. But in 4 rounds, I think, team 3 could hold Burgundy and Picardy. With these 2 extra bonuses (or at least 1 extra bonus from Picardy) green wouldn't be a problem anymore.
Like I said before, I failed to see a SD here, I just see team 3 didn't act objectively.
To be fair we can see, team 3 had 2 things to do : got rid of silver (to open an opportunity to take an other bonus) and green (to eliminate a potential danger). But they could do only one, and the choice fell to green. Maybe because silver is their friend, or maybe not.
I've read an article, but can't find it now - I think I read about that
here, that people should not always act rationally. If they are given a choice and may choose only one :
1. a chance to eliminate losses
2. the opportunity to earn a profit
most people prefer the first
.
.