[Official] Holiday Mafia - Game Over!

[Metsfanmax]

1) it would be pretty stupid from me to claim a character so likely to be in the game and so important in rakin/bass christmas specials, so what you would have to give as argument there is that mafia have fakeclaims.

That was the assumption I made. Didn't realize it needed to be made explicit.

2) it would be pretty stupid from me again to take such risk and assure you I can tell you who I sent a gift on night 1 to, who I sent a gift on night 2 to and not saying it overlaps for at least one of them witt's gift recipients if I had to invent bullcrap. I would be giving myself the worse odds possible. I could back up my story with all you want being a gifter, even reaching 99,99% possibility that I am town you can always argue that there is a 0,01% chance that I got extremely lucky about everything. Witt saying something and pulling back what he said once i've said it was untrue (he confirmed he said something untrue) nevertheless still makes me your prime suspect.

Witt didn't say anything intentionally contradictory -- he just said something confusing, which it took a while to sort out (his latest post on the mechanics seems to clear it up). Compare his first claim and what he just said:

Fine here it is...I will need a doc tonight for sure

Santa Claus town gift distributor. Now I hope you don't lynch me for the presents will go bye bye.

Forgot to add I can gift each player only 1 gift and I have a max limit on players I can give to. And Betiko I gave you a present n1 so someone has stolen it for sure. Hope this helps
please unvote.

I am able to send a max of 5 gifts per night minimum of 0 (haven't tested that part, only a guess) And I am only allowed to send 1 gift per person per night.

These two are basically the same. Yes, if you had read the first to imply that he can give each player only 1 gift for the whole game then you would find an inconsistency, but if you read it to mean "in a given night action, I can only give one gift to each player I target" (which is not a stretch) then everything checks out. So I think that still targeting Little Witt is a bad move right now.

[rishaed]

Hmm. . . I like the pace for the last few days. It would be nice to get an extension. I want to see Betikos case on Mets. If its convincing enough I might take a Mets claim/lynch into consideration. Lets just say I find the Mets/Betiko dispute interesting and possibly could lead to scum, if one of them slips up. I mean claiming a gifter in this game is easily verifiable, and frankly speaking quite hard to pull off. Why? b/c if you say your scum buddies got a gift, they verify and if you get lynched/NK'd and turn scum you've just exposed your scum buddies as well.

Sure, but the whole point of doing that is to prevent yourself from getting lynched in the first place. Yes, it's a bold move, but in a game like this with so many people doing so many things, I think the mafia have to be a bit bold if they're going to keep on top of things. Assuming betiko is indeed mafia, then he would be counting on us to make exactly the assumption you did, that mafia wouldn't even bother to try something like that.

As for the nature of the claim -- I'm not familiar enough with R/B's catalog to know how important Mrs. Claus is in the scheme of their hierarchy. But I could believe that she isn't in the game (especially if the way they allegedly put her in the game is just as a "vanilla" gifter).

If you are referring to betiko yes. I sorta thought this post was directed at me, in which case why would I be afraid of getting myself lynched? I don't have a single vote on me, and haven't done anything scummy either. As for claiming gifter as a bold move. . . In general its rather stupid, see above reasons. It wouldn't even keep you alive late endgame when they want your night actions to go with it. It would be like me claiming I was an Innocent Child. Its so easily verifiable, and lets say we tell betiko to gift player X tonight. Player X can come tomorrow and say I got a gift! If the other gifters know who betiko is gifting, and we are testing his claim he should only be getting one gift. This is assuming there are no interferences. And the more Day/Night phases pass the harder it will be to actually make it a good fakeclaim.
fp'd by mets

[betiko]

I know and that s why i quickly moved to soundman when it was going to be me or a very likely Santa as explained.
I still didn't hear about my offer to give away my recipients with timing. A bit odd if you are sure I have to be lynched, then you think I m a liar, so you have nothing to lose by hearing it.

[Metsfanmax]

If you are referring to betiko yes. I sorta thought this post was directed at me, in which case why would I be afraid of getting myself lynched? I don't have a single vote on me, and haven't done anything scummy either. As for claiming gifter as a bold move. . . In general its rather stupid, see above reasons. It wouldn't even keep you alive late endgame when they want your night actions to go with it. It would be like me claiming I was an Innocent Child.

Yes, I was referring to betiko. And I said it was "bold" and not "stupid" for a reason. That reason is that if he is forced to claim who he gave gifts to, and he uses mafia buddies as a mechanism to basically clear all of the mafia, then it would be a good play on his part. Yes, it would cause complications near endgame, but the most that would be guaranteed is that we'd lynch betiko but not really know for sure who the other mafia are. Plus that's assuming we get to endgame with enough town left to win.

I know and that s why i quickly moved to soundman when it was going to be me or a very likely Santa as explained.

Well, admittedly without an extension things are getting tricky at this point. I can see why you would vote soundman given the constraint that whoever has the most votes get lynched -- but honestly it's not even clear that we benefit from lynching him.

These two comments are similar so I grouped them:

Its so easily verifiable, and lets say we tell betiko to gift player X tonight. Player X can come tomorrow and say I got a gift! If the other gifters know who betiko is gifting, and we are testing his claim he should only be getting one gift. This is assuming there are no interferences. And the more Day/Night phases pass the harder it will be to actually make it a good fakeclaim.

I still didn't hear about my offer to give away my recipients with timing. A bit odd if you are sure I have to be lynched, then you think I m a liar, so you have nothing to lose by hearing it.

I'm game for trying this in theory, but how do we decide who to be the recipient of the gift? And how can be we sure that there will be no interferences? If I were, say, a mafia roleblocker and knew that betiko was town, I would just roleblock betiko tonight, as that would clearly get him lynched if we just blindly went forward with the plan.

[rishaed]

Thats why i made an If then statement. My example only works when there isn't something along the lines of a Roleblocker/Giftstealer in play. This is assuming that the giftstealer is scum, not third party.(Because if he was third party I would think he would have to steal so many gifts to win thus killing a Gifter is not in his best interests.) By all means Since we know there are interferences, we can't use this to verify his claim. In other words it become simple. Betiko tells us D4 who he gifts tonight, and that person can verify if he got the gift. It means that if the scum decide to RB betiko it frees up Gustaf so that he can cop someone (good). And since they wont know who he gifted it makes the chances of targeting that person with the giftstealer very slim.

[pancakemix]

Vote Count

Little Witt - 1 (edocsil)
betiko - 5 (Gustaf, Witt, mets, MoB, animaniacks)
soundman - 2 (spiesr, rish)
Mets - 2 (betiko, thechuck)

Deadline February 22 at 11:59 PM ET. A 24-hour runoff will commence in the event of a tie.

A couple of things:

1. Leave the vote counts to me. It's my job, let me do it (and yes I know they haven't been as frequent as I've liked).
2. The deadline will not be extended. You DO have the option to vote no lynch if you choose, but you have to vote for it.

[betiko]

Ok I have no choice unvote vote soundman

PCM with people close to being lynched you can t blame us for making our own updates when it s urgent. Also there is a few players that didn't show up in a few days but I guess it s too late.

if you are town you will truly regret this lynch, I warned you. all you have on me is being agressive (you know my meta) a few cases on me based on misreads of my posts or people auto convincing themselves; this and at least a scum or 2 bringing in their cents.

I am giving out a gift tonight to one of Witt s 5 to make him pr if I m still alive. Also as I already said I m concerned about many people using the same protective action on Santa and the cop, don t forget a watcher can be handy on any of them.

[Metsfanmax]

Thats why i made an If then statement. My example only works when there isn't something along the lines of a Roleblocker/Giftstealer in play. This is assuming that the giftstealer is scum, not third party.(Because if he was third party I would think he would have to steal so many gifts to win thus killing a Gifter is not in his best interests.) By all means Since we know there are interferences, we can't use this to verify his claim. In other words it become simple. Betiko tells us D4 who he gifts tonight, and that person can verify if he got the gift. It means that if the scum decide to RB betiko it frees up Gustaf so that he can cop someone (good). And since they wont know who he gifted it makes the chances of targeting that person with the giftstealer very slim.

I don't like this option either. If he gets to choose, and he is mafia, then he can just have a mafia buddy say that they got a gift.

[betiko]

Ok I will reveal this, mob I m the one who sent you your day 1 gift, and didn't t send you any night 2 for some reason. If I get lynched people will see that I was telling the truth and my fate is in your hands. Either you confirm what you know is true, either you let me under the bus and throw suspicion on you. If you unvote me and vote soundman this will be a draw and will give us extra time, your call.

[Little Witt]

Mob if you confirm Betiko than I am prepared to vote soundman also.

[Metsfanmax]

I can understand the purpose of voting soundman for the purposes of getting a draw, but if Little Witt does it too then we lynch him, and it's not clear why we should do that if he can vote with town in later rounds.

[spiesr]

I can understand the purpose of voting soundman for the purposes of getting a draw, but if Little Witt does it too then we lynch him, and it's not clear why we should do that if he can vote with town in later rounds.

Getting to a draw just gives us 24 more hours to decide. (Between the two?) Unless people vote for no lynch somebody has to die. Some people feel that lynching Soundman would be better than lynching Betiko. You obviously feel the other way. Unless something drastic happens soon they it appears that one of the two will be lynched.

[pancakemix]

PCM with people close to being lynched you can t blame us for making our own updates when it s urgent. Also there is a few players that didn't show up in a few days but I guess it s too late.

Yes I can, because I come in here every day and try to do a vote count and find that someone's already done it.

As for your second comment:

If there are any other requests for prod/replaces, do not hesitate to speak up.

If I missed something, I apologize. If you want me to do something, make it blatantly obvious.

Getting to a draw just gives us 24 more hours to decide. (Between the two?)

Yes.

[Little Witt]

THe reason I am willing to change my vote is because we have betiko in a tough spot and we can test his story tonight and see his results. Soundman is a little different as he has been quiet for a while and he appears to me as someone who holds more info than we know of. I think it would be VERY nice if we can get some more info on these 3rd party players and their purpose, weather if they are for or against town. And edocsil why you still have your vote on me?

[Metsfanmax]

I haven't seen a cogent case made for why we should lynch soundman, and even though I'm not 100% confident about betiko, I think it's the best play we've got today. If you wanted more information from soundman about his role, then you probably should have asked for it more than two hours before the deadline.

[thechuck51]

unvote vote soundman

if one person unvotes betiko (and nobody else votes soundman) i think that will put us at a tie and buy us another 24 hours

[betiko]

Guys let me repeat something: it is unlikely to have mafia with 3 night roles if we have 2 misers on top of that. Soundman is supposed to be just a survivor but I suspect him to be the gift stealer. His role is unbalanced compared to spiesr, and scums stealing gifts on top of role blocking and killing is unbalanced too. In the movie the heat miser ruins Christmas and Jessica Claus goes with a couple of elves to see Mother Nature and get to negotiate with her 2 sons, snow and heat, so that heat doesn't ruin Xmas. This is just flavor, but from flavor heat miser is a bad guy.

[betiko]

I just saw 4 guests connected. In less than an hour I will be lynched. Gustaf and witt are most likely who they say they are, keep in mind this votecount, there is a scum for sure between mob, anamaniaks and and mets, that s the little something you will get from my lynch.

[betiko]

Also tomorrow look at the pattern on keener. You can t afford to get another town killed tomorrow, if you do the day after tomorrow will probably be lylo. And don t blindly follow Gustaf because he can t take a little condescendence when he makes cases over reading the thread and not being even finished, and giving such crap arguments. I would ve expected more from a supposedly experience player, voting to satisfy his little ego is quite lame.

[Metsfanmax]

Be careful what you do here, everyone. Maybe betiko's telling the truth; maybe he's not. But this could easily turn into a lynch scenario for soundman without him having a real chance to defend himself, if anyone slips up. So think about what outcome you want in the next half hour

[Little Witt]

I haven't seen a cogent case made for why we should lynch soundman, and even though I'm not 100% confident about betiko, I think it's the best play we've got today. If you wanted more information from soundman about his role, then you probably should have asked for it more than two hours before the deadline.

1st from what I knew we had gotten as much as he was willing to give. 2nd he hasn't been active in this lately. What I meant by info s info from lynch. lynching Betiko would not yield very much info. All it would do is show us we mislynched and we are down a towny and a gifter, or we find a gifting mafia, which wouldn't make a ton of sense but you never know. Betiko might be lying and he has seemed a little scummy. But I would lynch soundman over a possible towny. As I said before, we lynch soundman and than test betiko tonight.

Betiko I have forgotten, could you please tell us who you are gifting tonight? As I said I am gonna give gifts to new players every night. that will stay until I have a proven towny to gift to.

[Little Witt]

unvote vote soundman

if one person unvotes betiko (and nobody else votes soundman) i think that will put us at a tie and buy us another 24 hours

Ok, sounds good. Unvote

[betiko]

I will gift to one of the 5 guys you gifted to on day 1 making him a power role if he isn't already. Not going to put a target on his shoulders by revealing it. Otherwise if you don t like the plan tell me who you want me to give a gift to.

[Little Witt]

I will gift to one of the 5 guys you gifted to on day 1 making him a power role if he isn't already. Not going to put a target on his shoulders by revealing it. Otherwise if you don t like the plan tell me who you want me to give a gift to.

Ok sounds fine. I will give soundman until tomorrow to respond, I would like if at all possible to have betiko cop-ed tonight to double check his info. And also just incase a protection on me or betiko seeing as we have been exposed to mafia. but I would think there would be a wise fr the mafia to stay on the towny side and not kill us so that they could possibly get presents. But my plan is to disaprove hoarding presents by a player and share the wealth. It is key that we don't start giving one or two players a ton of presents until we know more about them and their goals.

Can someone post on soundman's wall telling about his imminent lynch and defend his case? I have to go to bed and don't have the time right now.

[betiko]

Witt this will never happen. Don t expect to have a 100/100 cleared town you ll be safely able to send presents to, mafia is not stupid. Just send your gifts wisely, write on a file who you sent gifts to and who you know/ think you know has presents. If you have big doubts on someone who already has a present you might not send another one, be carefull and remember the double edge. I have no prob being coped, but no protection for me save it for Witt and Gustaf as well as a watcher or 2. Mafia is not going to kill town s prime suspect. Notice all the wifom in this post. We unfortunately can t coordinate something.