[Official] Breaking Bad Mafia 4/18 Blue. Town&DEA+rug win

[StorrZerg]

since you don't know probably
mod confirmed that scum have fake claims

so there will be no "botched fake claims" imo

[Metsfanmax]

since you don't know probably
mod confirmed that scum have fake claims

so there will be no "botched fake claims" imo

There's very little chance that there's only town and mafia in this game.

[StorrZerg]

sure, 3rd party will be much harder to find
best thing to do imo is just try and hunt for scum day 1
we can deal with claims latter. they come after pressure and votes

[iAmCaffeine]

And my opinion on Caffeine, I can see how some of his posts can be scummy (I do have to disagree with the rolefishing comments though), but I think it's more I don't trust X-Stor-X rather than I'm a scummy scumster.

Precisely!

well mr pancakemix, what do you think of cooldeals or virus?

Or do you have a scum read on someone you would like to share?

Insufficient data. Seems goodnatured, but that speaks to the poster and not of his posts. There's nothing to read but inactivity, if you choose to read that.

Town read. Definitely seems to be trying to help us make progress (see: the brief case on Rugbirn), perhaps a little offput (even suspicious) by your playstyle, which he sees as aggressive

My strongest scum read as of now is Caffeine. See above for that.

As I have already said, X-Stor-X OMGUS'd me, not vice versa.

If you want to know my other townread is betiko because he keeps things moving but isn't diving in head first like Stor.

can you give an example for your betiko read?

and back again iamcaffeine, i feel you are more likely to be an over defensive townie. you should stop playing in fear of because i called some of your actions scummy. no you may not care right now for what i think, but i need you to be backing up your opinions with something. I want to know the why. again, parden the excesses because "its day 1" or "lack of stuff to comment on" the latter part is more so directed to the rest of the players in the game.

You're reading me as being over defensive, but I'm not. Like jonty (I think it was jonty) said earlier, it helps to read things from more than one perspective so you can see the different potential meanings in what someone says. If you think I'm playing in fear then you're sorely mistaken; as I already explained I knew some of comments were scummy and as such I tried to keep my posts open for interpretation.

I gave you a why for my townread on betiko. I don't intend to quote the majority of his posts so far because I expect the only person with more posts so far is yourself.

I get the way you're playing though X-Stor-X. Talking a lot makes you seem extremely pro-town.

sure, 3rd party will be much harder to find
best thing to do imo is just try and hunt for scum day 1
we can deal with claims latter. they come after pressure and votes

It depends what the third party is; there can be two different mafia teams.

[iAmCaffeine]

Just to add: I think it extremely likely there are two mafia teams. Something along the lines of Gus & Americans as one and the Mexican Cartel as another.

[cooldeals]

I know noone has solicited my opinions in particular but I'll comment on a few things to get my opinion out there.

1. I do like how X-Stor is creating conversation in some ways but I'd appreciate if he would wait a little more between posts and have more posts with substantial questions than just non stop questions to the post before him. I think he's quite probably town with his enthusiasm but I'm worried that while trying to seek out scum he will help them hide in the sheer volume of unimportant posts. I very much anticipate his play once we have a claim on the board though as the questions will likely be much more helpful. Also he seems to be going after the active people more than the inactive people because he is responding to people who have posted which I think isn't the best strategy on D1 before a claim has happened.
2. I've seen quite a few opinions on the theme of the mafia. If anyone who knows the show could keep a list going with each persons ideas I think it will help everyone to be able to see the correlation that hasn't seen the show. I may try to make a compilation from other peoples posts later but thought I'd let someone who actually has seen the show do it first.
3. Is meta a term for normal? Seems like the way it's used is as if it's the norm for something
4. I think the day will progress more when claims get on the board as that is when you can really start evaluating people's opinions. But we must go through the process (which Rodion hates) of getting to that first claim from no substantial evidence. Being frustrated about it isn't going to change anything so lets try to keep it fun.

fp by Caffeine

[betiko]

ok so we've discussed the possibility of 2 different mafia factions. I have to say I've never been in such game. And is it really possible to do such thing?
in the matrix mafia there were the machines/agents that were the mafia; and I was part of a masoned third party group with the merovingien, persephone and the albino twins it was pretty close to being a second mafia but we were in fact third parties with other agendasthan killing town.. a bit unrelated I know... but would you guys agree that there can't be2 different mafia groups directly threatening town for ballance sake in a game?

I think that the best flavour read I have right now is that the entire white family, the walt & jessie gang and the DEA are all town; then you have the salamancas as a first third party, Gus frings's gang as the real mafia group, and todd and the white supremacists as a second third party group?
something like that, because there aren't enough real good guys in the show to have enough town people otherwise. you got to add the shady yet main protagonist characters to town i'd say..

fastposted 3 times

[cooldeals]

In TNC we had a mafia game with 2 mafia factions.

14 players

5 "Town" all 5 players knew who the others (almost like a mafia faction) and several very powerful roles (1 could be revived, 1 couldn't be killed unless a certain townie was already dead, JOAT, and a virgin)
3 "Mafia Group 1" Included 1 double voter
3 "Mafia Group 2" Included 1 double voter
2 3rd party
1 Cult Recruiter

All that said I don't think that's a little more than what people are suggesting when people say 2 mafias.That game had a unique balance in voting since town knew each other and scum had double voters but didn't know the other scum party, plus the scum got raided by the cult for their double voting powers. That's obviously not the case this game. I do think though that it's possible to have two scum factions and still have a balanced game if you have decent town roles because they will vote against each other and possibly NK each other since they can't win together and don't know who the other faction is. The only problem I see in the balance is the game has to be more or less balanced for the scum factions too so it'd be odd to have 1 mafia faction of 3 and one of 2. Also, unless there's a unique balance having 6 people that are scum could really stall lynches if they wise up to the fact there are 2 factions. I'd more likely see 1 Mafia and 1 Cult being a viable option. Again I don't know the Show so maybe that doesn't make sense.

[iAmCaffeine]

You could also have two mafia teams which are against each other, which makes sense with Gus against the Mexican Cartel. It would fit perfectly with the series.

[pancakemix]

My reads so far: not much. X-stor might be scum and playing on his seemingly newb level to take advantage of us. Not sure how people are generating town reads on cd; I'm a little wary of why pcm would so easily say that moving along a minor case is a town tell.

Why is that? I mean granted that normally would set off my scumdar, but perhaps I'm being a little forgiving of someone I'm not familiar with. It sounded like an honest gesture, and once refuted was honestly backed off of. Maybe it's the rust, but I see no reason for me to be paranoid at this early stage.

i said my read on iamcaffeine was neutral, and i've had several people take that as my #1 scum push.

I don't know if this refers to me but if it does, let me clarify: I felt that IAC was scummiest thus far based on his reaction to your questioning, not based on your opinion of him.

As I have already said, X-Stor-X OMGUS'd me, not vice versa.

If you want to know my other townread is betiko because he keeps things moving but isn't diving in head first like Stor.

As he said, he's got a neutral read on you. How can he have an OMGUS case on you when he's not even really making a case on you?

[rishaed]

ok so we've discussed the possibility of 2 different mafia factions. I have to say I've never been in such game. And is it really possible to do such thing?
in the matrix mafia there were the machines/agents that were the mafia; and I was part of a masoned third party group with the merovingien, persephone and the albino twins it was pretty close to being a second mafia but we were in fact third parties with other agendasthan killing town.. a bit unrelated I know... but would you guys agree that there can't be2 different mafia groups directly threatening town for ballance sake in a game?

I think that the best flavour read I have right now is that the entire white family, the walt & jessie gang and the DEA are all town; then you have the salamancas as a first third party, Gus frings's gang as the real mafia group, and todd and the white supremacists as a second third party group?
something like that, because there aren't enough real good guys in the show to have enough town people otherwise. you got to add the shady yet main protagonist characters to town i'd say..

fastposted 3 times

Its possible but both mafias would have to be scaled and no SK? So I'd put 4 scum normally in a game this size, for two groups maybe (2 and 2) throw in 2/3 third party and you've got a decent mix. I don't know the chances of an SK b/c I'm not extremely familiar with the series, but if there was an SK i'd have one mafia group at 3/4. IF two it'd be simple GF+ Goon/PR for each group. Thats my thoughts on that matter. I'm still not happy with Rugbirn's "contributions" or lack therof, Vote Rugbirn, but with hardly any posts to your name, i can't see the quality posts you promised.
fp'd

[iAmCaffeine]

As I have already said, X-Stor-X OMGUS'd me, not vice versa.

If you want to know my other townread is betiko because he keeps things moving but isn't diving in head first like Stor.

As he said, he's got a neutral read on you. How can he have an OMGUS case on you when he's not even really making a case on you?

I have just been looking for it and somehow I've missed a page. Apologies, I don't even know how that happened. I wondered why Mets was suddenly in the game! I still don't like X-Stor-X's play, but appreciate what he's trying to achieve. I didn't OMGUS and neither did he, obviously.

[Rugbirn]

O.K. guys enough babble. Let's try to focus on what we do know (or at least can speculate with a higher success rate). I would like help with this so that we can closely determine the numbers of townies, mafia, and 3rd parties (almost certain that there must be 3rd parties based on 18 player). Forgive me but I'm not great with names to begin with, and haven't seen the seies for at least 2 years:

18 Players

Roles would need to be the most active in the series (thru season 4, maybe 5) Forgive me if I can't remember all the names. Help me out where you can

1 Walt (Main character & crystal king)
2 Skyler (Walt's wife)
3 Walt Jr. (their son)
4 Skylers' sister (forgot her name)
5 Skyler's sisters husband (again help me out here with name) the cop
6 Jesse (cooking partner)
7 Saul (Walt & Jesse's lawyer)

8 Hisenburg (Walt's alter ego) Here I agree with whoever mentioned that Walt's personality can be both townie and scum in this game
9 Gus? (chicken resturanteur who is a mafia kingpin)
10 Tuco (main drug dealer that Walt had to first encounter and eliminate in order to advance his crystal empire)

I think these 10 have to be in this game...... continuing, my guess for others:

11 Skyler's boyfriend (don't remember name) who broke the family nucleus apart.
12 Jesse's #1 friend who helped him deal the crystal initially (help with name)
13 Jesse's #2 friend who helped him deal the crystal initially (help with name)
14 The old hitman (again help with name) that Jesse worked with for a while
15 The mute drug kinpin who range the bell constantly

I need help with the last three (as I haven't seen the series in a while) but know that I may be leaving some drug gansters out

Out of these 15, there are 4 scum (and there may be one more of the last three I haven't defined): Hisenburg, Old Hitman. Gus, and Mute Guy.

What I'm trying to deduce here is that there is probably 4-5 mafia types. Out of 18 players, our chances of picking one accurately without a whole lot of info (other than personal opinion and intuition) is maybe 25% . Not too good.

Opinions please on the other three or mistake you think that I have made, and name for the omissions of my mine...Thanks

[Metsfanmax]

11 Skyler's boyfriend (don't remember name) who broke the family nucleus apart.
12 Jesse's #1 friend who helped him deal the crystal initially (help with name)
13 Jesse's #2 friend who helped him deal the crystal initially (help with name)
14 The old hitman (again help with name) that Jesse worked with for a while
15 The mute drug kinpin who range the bell constantly

11 - Ted Beneke
12 - Badger
13 - Skinny Pete
14 - Mike Ehrmantraut
15 - Hector Salamanca

If Hector's in the game, Don Eladio could be too, as an enemy of Gus. I am still very skeptical that there's only one mafia faction. Much more likely that there's two warring factions, with town caught in the middle.

BTW: It's Heisenberg

[Rugbirn]

Thanks Mets, I forgot about Don Eladio. Do you think I am fairly acurate so far? Who do you think the other two might be?

[Metsfanmax]

I suggested earlier that Huell (Saul's bodyguard) might be in the game. Another possibility is Crazy 8 (the distributor that Walter and Jesse kill early in Season 1) -- he could be playing with the Salamancas. As a balance thing though, if Gus has a faction, then Gale Boetticher is probably in it.

BTW: Skyler's sister is Marie, and her husband (the DEA agent) is Hank.

[StorrZerg]

keep it simple guys

less set up talk/theme for day one is better

Our job is to find scum.

If there are 2 mafia factions who cares?
it will be apparent after the first lynch and or night kills.

we are not going to lynch someone cause they said "o man 5 mafia groups"
or because they say "well obviously walt is 3rd party"

play day 1 as if no theme, as if just town vs mafia.

if a claim happens, then sure i'd be open to setup talk. Pre claim it just feels like a waste.
going to go through some filters, want to put everyone on notice who has not given the slightest read.


Again my big issue with setup talk, it just feels way to beneficial for mafia. allows them to find the little tells in peoples logic about the setup, to key them into that persons role. mafia know WAY more than us. They have a list of roles, they have fake claims. They KNOW far more than we do.

if i was scum, i would be all over this theme talk, i would be diving in with you guys, and i would be blending in easy as pie.

[Metsfanmax]

Again my big issue with setup talk, it just feels way to beneficial for mafia.

And again, you are not the only one with an opinion on this issue. I disagree with you. Please stop telling everyone else to only play your way.

[Rugbirn]

O.K, How does this look?

Townies:

1 Walt (Main character & primo crystal maker)
2 Skyler (Walt's wife)
3 Walt Jr. (their son)
4 Marie (Skylers' sister)
5 Hank (Marie's husband the cop)
6 Jesse (cooking partner)
7 Badger (Jesse's #1 friend who helped him deal crystal)
8 Skinny Pete (Jesse's #2 friend who helped him deal crystal)
9 Ted Beneke (Skyler's boyfriend who broke the family nucleus apart)

Mafia:

10 Heisenberg (Walt's alter ego) Here I agree with whoever mentioned that Walt's personality can be both townie and scum in this game
11 Gus (chicken resturanteur who is a mafia kingpin)
12 Crazy 8 (local drug dealer melted in bathtub)
13 Tuco (main drug dealer that Walt had to first encounter and eliminate in order to advance his crystal empire)
14 Mike Ehrmantraut (the hitman)
15 Hector Salamanca (the mute drug kinpin)

3rd Parties:

16 Saul (Walt & Jesse's lawyer)
17 Huell (Saul's bodyguard)
18 Gale Boetticher (Gus' early chemist who Jesse killed)

[Rugbirn]

X-stor,
It may not matter to you, but for me, I think it is logical to try and figure out the 18 roles in order to precieve what the ratios probably are. To lynch for the sake of lynching without anything but hunches seems quite arbitrary and based on about a 25% probability of getting it right - to me is frightening.

[rishaed]

keep it simple guys

less set up talk/theme for day one is better

Our job is to find scum.

If there are 2 mafia factions who cares?
it will be apparent after the first lynch and or night kills.

we are not going to lynch someone cause they said "o man 5 mafia groups"
or because they say "well obviously walt is 3rd party"

play day 1 as if no theme, as if just town vs mafia.

if a claim happens, then sure i'd be open to setup talk. Pre claim it just feels like a waste.
going to go through some filters, want to put everyone on notice who has not given the slightest read.


Again my big issue with setup talk, it just feels way to beneficial for mafia. allows them to find the little tells in peoples logic about the setup, to key them into that persons role. mafia know WAY more than us. They have a list of roles, they have fake claims. They KNOW far more than we do.

if i was scum, i would be all over this theme talk, i would be diving in with you guys, and i would be blending in easy as pie.

Mets mentioned it above about setup, and I will as well, Mafia have to have a information advantage early on to counter towns large numbers/ lurking variable third parties. Setup talk is beneficial overall to everyone ( including mafia/scum), but more beneficial to town, as it brings opinions to the table and allow for people to contribute, who wouldn't normally on D1. Also going into the dark without any information is never a good thing for town, and it allows people to build gut feelings, and doesn't bring town cred later on for reasons you have mentioned. IMO Setup talk is best at the beginning of the day/pre-claims because it removes distractions mid/post claim, and allows on people to decide on a lynch or not. That and most setup discussion comes after Night scenes which is most relevant for the most part at the beginning of the day as people try to figure out what all is happening in the scene. It works extremely well as an icebreaker on D1 as well. We have just under a week left so I will agree that we need to start moving for a claim, but the shift doesn't have to be sudden it can be over the next day (2-3 days is probably too much).
unvote Im happy with the last coupla posts from Rugbirn, and will start moving in claim/wagon direction tomorrow.
fp'd

[StorrZerg]

UnVote

Vote anarkistsdream

So my small case on you good sir.
I say good sir, because you have been doing manner posting specially in regards to myself. Trying to "do good" to myself. General advice etc.

My problem is, it is not alignment indicative, you could be doing this as any role. Besides "liking my play" (maybe it has changed) you really have not voiced yourself in any discussion regarding who you think is scum, or town.

There is also the line from you which intrigues me.
"Gonna go smoke some meth"
would you mind explaining this?

[StorrZerg]

X-stor,
It may not matter to you, but for me, I think it is logical to try and figure out the 18 roles in order to precieve what the ratios probably are. To lynch for the sake of lynching without anything but hunches seems quite arbitrary and based on about a 25% probability of getting it right - to me is frightening.

You understand that im not rolling a die? none of us are.

I can't force everyone to stop talking about set up. I can ask that you at least try to give your read on people. You should be able to give a read on someone you think is acting fishy, push an inactive, etc. or flip, someone you think is playing town. CC mafia seems to like talking about set up, who is playing ball well? Why? does that make them town?

[betiko]

I don t really know how mafia games are played elsewhere, but badically here the mod makes up a storyline. You know in what universe you are moving through and trying to connect the dots is part of the fun.

Anyway, rugbirn, i think you are trying to be too precise, stopping at 18 is irrelevant because there are obviously some characters not in the game and others that are and not mentioned.
What was the name of that logistics brunette? I d put her in gus s mafia gang, no doubt, and could be a mafia busdriver, just a thought.

X stor. Mind quoting from anarkist? I have no opinion on your case as it s not factual. Basically you re voting for him because he s been rubbing your back a bit too much right? If you want to start a serious case you better quote to start a bandwagon.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I like the setup talk. It gives me ideas about how this will play out. Granted, Rugbirn has come in a little bit later than initial discussion to rekindle this topic. I'm tempted to believe that the setup is rather simple for this game. I think somewhere a mod posted (after the last official game) that CC needed an official game that was simpler and tailored so that newbs would be able to play and understand.

X-Stor-X...you're being a little to fanatical about "finding scum". You like to mention it in a lot of your posts...like you're trying to convince the rest of us that you actually are town. Constantly reminding us that town should behave this way or that way, and that you are following the perfect town pattern. The more you post this, the more forced it sounds...and the more smarmy it feels every time I read it. All you've managed to do is throw a huge amount of WIFOM out there about how we should act.