Balance Not Included Mafia 3/12 End Game: Balance. Town Wins

[mtamburini]

What made you come to 27%?

Why did you choose to talk about the people you did and not the ones you didnt?

[StorrZerg]

Virus you can't just hide from this lynch.

[StorrZerg]

Also last time I'm going to say this on day 1.

Mets and pcm. Neither of you are going to be lynched this day. So stop wasting your vote on each other today.
Secondly both parties being frustrated can explain each others reads being not alignment indicative.

[pancakemix]

I believe I have done everything you have asked of me, and therefore you should feel obliged to unvote.

Oh, mighty Metsfan, your will is law! I am not worthy! *bows*

Seriously, if the only issue were you trying to avoid the virus discussion, then yes I'd unvote (and frankly if you'd done it earlier, I'd certainly have been off your back by now) but as I'm about to explain, that is not all that is at issue. And I have definitely explained it before this point, but unlike you I will take the time to spell it out again.

This was the stem of this argument (in earnest, at least):

There's not been a reason given to look at it. As I said -- when you've got something that's not WIFOM, I'll look at it.

I fail to see how this is WIFOM. My case is that Virus was trying to out spiesr. If that's the wine in front of me, what's the wine in front of you?

Which begets this gem:

It's WIFOM because an equally valid argument can be made that the post pushes virus towards town, because no mafia who is an experienced player would be so stupid as to try to out spiesr in like the first post of D1. (And then it continues, well, of course we would conclude that because virus is an experienced player, so maybe it's a trick, etc.)

1. It's not WIFOM. We've been over this at great length, of course, but to reiterate: It doesn't recurve, because your suggestion of a loop is such a stretch I don't see how anyone could reasonable come to that conclusion about virus' play, in part because:

2. It would be stupid to try and do that. We've been operating under the given that virus' play was inherently scummy. You suggest that it could have just been a bad play (and I accepted that possibility, but my position there was that it should be punished regardless. That, however, is beside the point.) but you also suggest that in the three hour timespan between confirming and the post in question, virus concocted a high-risk low-reward scheme to try and fish for a role on shaky WIFOM tactics (which, by the way, I don't think I've ever seen anyone actually try to execute anyway). That's just poor argument, and I can't consider a response to my request to define how my case was WIFOM. It just showed an alternative that I had a response to.

That's the first point: trying to stifle an argument by invoking the holy acronym without cause.

Then there's this beaut:

By the way: if your vote is on me, that means you think I'm mafia for defending virus. Which means that you also think virus is mafia. So why is your vote on me and not on virus?

1. That's a non sequitur. You're just as likely to be scum on your own merits

2. If I think you're scum, then I should vote you anyway, silly billy.

Point two: This beaut.

Finally, there's the matter of the continued insistence that there's no need to continue the debate because you've clearly disproven the opposing position (you clearly haven't, see point 1):

Hey, you know what's cool? When I provide reasons that the case is WIFOM, and then you ignore them and pretend like I didn't actually make them. I'll copy/paste it for you here since reading doesn't seem to be your strongest suit in this game (it shouldn't have been. Then I'm done with you.

And all the while you're content to sit on your hands:

Sometimes a random D1 lynch is better than participating in a really bad case. This is one of those times for me.

1. That's never true. It benefits no one to just roll the dice.

2. That lazy. You'd probably still be on your ass if I hadn't kept pushing. That's probably why you think responding at all is sufficient.

That's point three: lazy response and lazy play

There are 10 other players in this mafia game besides you and me. Apparently I am the only one being held to the standard of explicating a pages long essay including fact checking and references on who my favorite D1 target is and why, while other people are getting off easy with "vote virus." You're absurd.

They've given reasons. I at least understand their logic so I can't fault them for being reasoned. Granted I don't usually go off like this on D1, but I do do it (mostly with jak). If you're suggesting I've made no mention of them, I have, at Storr's behest, given reads on spiesr and IB.

Also last time I'm going to say this on day 1.

Mets and pcm. Neither of you are going to be lynched this day. So stop wasting your vote on each other today.
Secondly both parties being frustrated can explain each others reads being not alignment indicative.

And you were heard the first time. Judging from the previous VC (and including DJ's vote), I doubt a lynch will occur today. That said, if things change in the next few hours, I'd be willing to switch my vote to virus. I have stated previously that a virus lynch is probably more beneficial to the headache of keeping him alive, but I have an engagement this evening so if I am available I'll move my vote.

[StorrZerg]

Damn right pcm a lynch will not happen with your current play of bashing heads with mets.

Your not actually trying to get him lynched you are just arguing. Most of which are over different opinions on terms. If you really wanted him lynched you would be directing others to vote, calling on others to give opinions.

[Djfireside]

What made you come to 27%?

Why did you choose to talk about the people you did and not the ones you didnt?

Time and what I could remember. Its only day 1 so I only touched on the ones that stuck in my mind through everything. You struck more of a chord but since I havent played with you I decided to watch you rather than analysis.

12 players, assumed 3 mafia. cant count person attacking so that leaves 11 and assuming they are town , 3/11 = 27%

I concur with everyone on Mets and PCM. I had that written the first time it got lost.

[Djfireside]

Virus you can't just hide from this lynch.

Lol yeah and you cant even blame a bandwagon vote on this since everyone has gotten off. The more I wrote the more it seemed to fit and had nothing to do with the joke.

[Metsfanmax]

That's the first point: trying to stifle an argument by invoking the holy acronym without cause.

I merely was voicing my opinion that it was stupid and I would not participate in it without a good reason. I did not attempt to actively stifle any discussion. No lynching threats were made, etc. I just said an argument was bad. That's hardly the first time it has happened in a mafia game.

That's a non sequitur. You're just as likely to be scum on your own merits

That's true. I stopped defending that point pages ago when I realized I was wrong.

Finally, there's the matter of the continued insistence that there's no need to continue the debate because you've clearly disproven the opposing position (you clearly haven't, see point 1):

My continued insistence has been that there's no need to continue this debate between us because you are dragging us away from the discussion about virus (which has now become meaningful). I have let you drag me into this and I'm done with it. Note how in my last several posts I have chosen not to engage in the actual content of that debate anymore, because I don't see the point. One of us is right, but it doesn't matter who it is. I'll even concede the debate if you want. I don't care. Now I am not only done with the original discussion, but also done with this meta-discussion. unvote

[Metsfanmax]

Now, regarding virus. Suppose we don't lynch him. Statistically, if we ask him to use his one-shot vig, he's going to hit town and then we've traded a power role for a known VT, which mafia will then not target any longer, making him useless to us except as a vote. The problem is, if he is mafia, mafia will just direct their NK to someone and virus will claim it was his one shot, and then he's "confirmed" as town which is a bad situation for us to be in. Alternatively, if he waits and really is town, then mafia will likely just kill him now anyway.

Now, suppose we do lynch him. If he flips mafia, great. If he flips town, then we've got a problem because we'll lose a second townie at night. One minor redemption is that we could always analyze the votes today for mafia.

This makes this a tough proposition; there's potentially bad results for town in either case. I feel that lynching virus is slightly better on balance because the prospect of having him confirmed as town when he's really not is a very scary one in the long term. I think this is just the price you pay for a claim like he's given. If he's town, it sucks for him, but we have to worry about what's best for the town. So, vote virus

[StorrZerg]

good lord what is the vote count

[StorrZerg]

i think he still needs 2 more ok. was worried day just ended.

srsly though virus perk up

[mtamburini]

Vote Count

DJfireside (2)-Spiesr, StorrZerg
Virus90 (3)-Iron Butterfly, Hotshot, Jonty
MetsfanMax (1)-Pancake
Storrzerg (1)-Jamesker
Streaker
Pancakemix (1)-Metsfanmax
Iron butterfly (1)-Virus90
Jonty (1)-Streaker

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline in 14'30 hours

Does that mean at 1430 CCT?

[StorrZerg]

What i got was Midnight tonight.. 11:59

Sept 12th

From the opening day post
"Deadline is September, 12 at 11:59 EST."

[mtamburini]

kk, personally I think DJ is a better lynch. The way he made his long post seems very similar to the way I posted in the GoT game when I was scum. But more importantly he wants to lynch virus regardless of being scum or vigi as odds are there will be a misshot anyways or mafia just spin it in another direction with bus driver or role block.

Im thinking Virus is little less scummy now after DJ's post.

When I asked him to bring up the math he got and after he explained it it surprises me he included himself in the 3/11 and not make it 3/10 removing himself from the equation. If you include a lynch today and we hit town instead of mafia it becomes 3/9. Still losing odds but better then 3/11. I always exclude myself out of odds and probabilities when Im town.

I dont write essays like all you people do but I hope my point is getting across here

[mtamburini]

vote Djfireside

[mtamburini]

What made you come to 27%?

Why did you choose to talk about the people you did and not the ones you didnt?

Time and what I could remember. Its only day 1 so I only touched on the ones that stuck in my mind through everything. You struck more of a chord but since I havent played with you I decided to watch you rather than analysis.

12 players, assumed 3 mafia. cant count person attacking so that leaves 11 and assuming they are town , 3/11 = 27%

I concur with everyone on Mets and PCM. I had that written the first time it got lost.

Storr has he played with you before?

[StorrZerg]

tambo will you be around a few hours before dead line. i assume you will

[StorrZerg]

have i played with mtamb. yes. This is the first time in public CC forum.

played 2 with the clan, and we have played many times on video, and a few times in rl

[StorrZerg]

kk fyi. mafia have fake claims in this game. This shouldn't be a surprise based on what we have. You know to help prevent a mass claim from working.

SO i'm REALLY questioning people who are "saying the claim is weak" or w/e cause or saying "well i expected batman to be different " blah. (correct me if im wrong, but i think dj was pushing that)

[mtamburini]

have i played with mtamb. yes. This is the first time in public CC forum.

played 2 with the clan, and we have played many times on video, and a few times in rl

You donkey I ASKED YOU if you played with DJ before

[StorrZerg]

have i played with mtamb. yes. This is the first time in public CC forum.

played 2 with the clan, and we have played many times on video, and a few times in rl

You donkey I ASKED YOU if you played with DJ before

lol i dont' think so. Moded the newbie game which he was in.

[mtamburini]

So then how can he give an analysis of the shit youve done this game but not say anything about me because he has never played with me before when he has never played with you either?

[StorrZerg]

Jelly? That answer doesn't matter. I've pushed more and been far more vocal. That's probably why

[Djfireside]

.... removed for space
When I asked him to bring up the math he got and after he explained it it surprises me he included himself in the 3/11 and not make it 3/10 removing himself from the equation. If you include a lynch today and we hit town instead of mafia it becomes 3/9. Still losing odds but better then 3/11. I always exclude myself out of odds and probabilities when Im town.

I removed the shooter and there are still 11 people, I could be shot which keeps the odds the same.... 3 mafia, 8 town assuming shooter is town.
No reason to exclude myself and we have no idea what the odds would be after a lynch since wouldnt know who we lynched.

SO i'm REALLY questioning people who are "saying the claim is weak" or w/e cause or saying "well i expected batman to be different " blah. (correct me if im wrong, but i think dj was pushing that)

You are correct. I stated that, whether I was first I dont know but I did say it and Im judging a multitude of factors in stating it doesnt fit. Im also the one who stated I was skeptical of the way you and mTam were playing off each other and that is part of my reason to stick on Virus since you pushed so hard against them for a trivial reason and the instant you were caught into it pushed away and then turned to defense mode when the pressure didnt fall off and still continues. Im not putting pressure and it very well could be because you two have played together a bunch but just noting as I try to explain what I see and give others data to work with that if I get killed people can see something as would have happened in the newbie game. Im the first to own up to it and recant it when I think im wrong.


fp x4

[StorrZerg]

Everyone needs to hop on dj wagon now.
no one has counter claimed being a vig, likely that Virus is real. We only have roughly 6 hours.

Start moving your votes. Anyone still voting virus for day 1 early stuff is a donkey.
Hell i was the lead pusher on virus AND IM NOT PUSHING HIM ANY MORE.

Im going to keep logs of anyone i see viewing this forum, and failing to post.