Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:
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Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:
Yep. I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm using big complicated words because I like to appear intellectual and not because I give a shit about climate change.BigBallinStalin wrote:Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:
Uhh..? I'm not implying. The comic pretty much describes much of mainstream economics.Metsfanmax wrote:Yep. I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm using big complicated words because I like to appear intellectual and not because I give a shit about climate change.BigBallinStalin wrote:Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:
I know. I'm making fun of saxi.BigBallinStalin wrote:Uhh..? I'm not implying. The comic pretty much describes much of mainstream economics.Metsfanmax wrote:Yep. I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm using big complicated words because I like to appear intellectual and not because I give a shit about climate change.BigBallinStalin wrote:Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:I know. I'm making fun of saxi.BigBallinStalin wrote:Uhh..? I'm not implying. The comic pretty much describes much of mainstream economics.Metsfanmax wrote:Yep. I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm using big complicated words because I like to appear intellectual and not because I give a shit about climate change.BigBallinStalin wrote:Pretty much.Neoteny wrote:

So, the basic problem revolves around the means for gathering such information, which then bumps into the issues of incentives. How many bureaucrats at national regulatory agents actually conduct cost-benefit analysis that also incorporate the utility functions of individuals who will be affected? (Then, re: the knowledge problem, there's no such thing as well-defined utility functions per individual. Shit changes, and people's preferences change. It's not like you or I can actually scale our preferences over all goods at this moment and then foresee future changes in this scale. I don't see how bureaucrats can adjust as quickly to accommodate such changes).Metsfanmax wrote:It doesn't seem impossible to know in principle. It's true that the government can't know the utility curves of every individual, but it seems more straightforward to ask the question of what the representative individual's utility curve is. This seems doable because when you have a large enough number of people, you can average over all of the quirks that any individual represents. If you can estimate the monetary damage suffered to the society, then you can attribute the cost of that damage equally to everyone who contributes, in proportion to the amount that they contribute, since a molecule of CO2 doesn't care where it came from. So I don't believe that this is a problem with the framework but rather a problem of subjective assessment of total costs. If you think of examples like noise pollution, it's true that it's hard to objectively state what even the average cost to society is. But that's not an indictment of the framework of attempting to internalize externalities, so much as saying that we should only apply the framework when we're confident that we can provide some meaningful estimate of the representative individual's utility curve.BigBallinStalin wrote: RE: the first and second paragraphs, it's not that it's difficult; it's rather the case that government has hardly any idea. Individuals know to some degree, after trial-and-error, their specific marginal benefit and marginal cost curves for various activities (e.g. grocery shopping). The problem with PWE is that it postulates a representative individual, whose utility curve + constraint represents the MB and MC curves of all society. (This is impossible to know; it's simply assumed, so the knowledge problem is assumed away by the economist).
How do you know that the policymakers have a better idea? For climate change, yes, there's the current projections which have yet to resolve basic issues like which interest they should use (in order to discount future values). This given information will change over time--not the basic projections, but also which areas will be affected to whatever degree (and so on), so how do you know that the policymakers will update their rules and do so appropriately?Metsfanmax wrote:Individuals may not know, but policymakers do have a better idea in this case. Again, the most compelling criticism here is that the policymaker may be way off due to unintended consequences, but that doesn't mean that policymakers can't be more knowledgeable than individuals. They absolutely can be in cases like this. The same is true for education. Individuals won't know for decades after they receive the education whether it was useful to them, so expecting them to be able to assess the value of education to themselves seems to be an absurd approach.The Pigouvian economist can simply imagine huge negative and huge positive externalities which do not exist in reality (e.g. education). Furthermore, individuals don't know the long-term costs of pollution, so there's no way to graph that social MB and MC curves in order to determine the magnitude of the negative externality.

This has nothing to do with science and everything to do with greed. People's self interest keeps them from objectively seeing the reality.Metsfanmax wrote:
So every single thing we do know points toward a large warming coming in the following decades. The only bastion for "skeptics" to hold on to is that maybe the entire scientific community missed something big and the whole thing will just end up being no big deal. This is not particularly appealing to me.