PYP~Mafia [05/21] end game

[Metsfanmax]

@jwiedlin I had already stated I wasn't. In orange even

I agree with the sentiment that if someone is town and NRA they would have already stepped forward. (Now progressing more into opinion) They SHOULD have already stepped forward even knowing that it could mean death. I only think town would choose it to prevent scum having it, and in which case they should follow through and basically martyr themselves (although I am less certain that we would have to lynch such a claimer if we trust them at all, although its unlikely someone would fake-claim that at this point given how likely they are to be lynched.) The other possibility is what mets is arguing: that they want to stay hidden and play odds. Maybe mets himself is it and that is why he wants that discussion to go away.
@mets I agree that simply asking for a list and no other pursuit is a waste of our time, but you are contributing just as much to it and not starting any other direction


If it was chosen, it was either very early, or by someone late who was more or less using their choice to see whether it had been picked. A good jumping off point would be vanilla claims along with what they tried for, anyone willing? (or did we all get roles?)

It is comments like these that allow me to say the NRA conversation was not fruitless. This is role fishing at its finest and it is enough for me to give out my first vote of the game.

##Vote whatsausage

Dammit. This is a repeat of what happened in your game, isn't it? I railed at Storr for raising a stupid case, but we ended up getting something out of it nonetheless.

[Whatsausage]

@jwiedlin I had already stated I wasn't. In orange even

I agree with the sentiment that if someone is town and NRA they would have already stepped forward. (Now progressing more into opinion) They SHOULD have already stepped forward even knowing that it could mean death. I only think town would choose it to prevent scum having it, and in which case they should follow through and basically martyr themselves (although I am less certain that we would have to lynch such a claimer if we trust them at all, although its unlikely someone would fake-claim that at this point given how likely they are to be lynched.) The other possibility is what mets is arguing: that they want to stay hidden and play odds. Maybe mets himself is it and that is why he wants that discussion to go away.
@mets I agree that simply asking for a list and no other pursuit is a waste of our time, but you are contributing just as much to it and not starting any other direction


If it was chosen, it was either very early, or by someone late who was more or less using their choice to see whether it had been picked. A good jumping off point would be vanilla claims along with what they tried for, anyone willing? (or did we all get roles?)

It is comments like these that allow me to say the NRA conversation was not fruitless. This is role fishing at its finest and it is enough for me to give out my first vote of the game.

##Vote whatsausage

Soooo... you are saying that you took part in a discussion that you knew wouldn't go anywhere in itself waiting for someone else to decide it wouldn't go anywhere and then actually try to head in a different direction?
also: Role fishing? If by that you mean trying to figure out what we have/are up against then I suppose so. Just wanting to get us to share our knowledge, but maybe it is too early for that.

[strike wolf]

@jwiedlin I had already stated I wasn't. In orange even

I agree with the sentiment that if someone is town and NRA they would have already stepped forward. (Now progressing more into opinion) They SHOULD have already stepped forward even knowing that it could mean death. I only think town would choose it to prevent scum having it, and in which case they should follow through and basically martyr themselves (although I am less certain that we would have to lynch such a claimer if we trust them at all, although its unlikely someone would fake-claim that at this point given how likely they are to be lynched.) The other possibility is what mets is arguing: that they want to stay hidden and play odds. Maybe mets himself is it and that is why he wants that discussion to go away.
@mets I agree that simply asking for a list and no other pursuit is a waste of our time, but you are contributing just as much to it and not starting any other direction


If it was chosen, it was either very early, or by someone late who was more or less using their choice to see whether it had been picked. A good jumping off point would be vanilla claims along with what they tried for, anyone willing? (or did we all get roles?)

It is comments like these that allow me to say the NRA conversation was not fruitless. This is role fishing at its finest and it is enough for me to give out my first vote of the game.

##Vote whatsausage

Soooo... you are saying that you took part in a discussion that you knew wouldn't go anywhere in itself waiting for someone else to decide it wouldn't go anywhere and then actually try to head in a different direction?

No I am saying to the people saying that it's useless that even if you don't agree with the line of reasoning, we have people like you who have come out with role fishing scenarios and saying that that at the very least makes it a discussion that DOES go somewhere.

also: Role fishing? If by that you mean trying to figure out what we have/are up against then I suppose so. Just wanting to get us to share our knowledge, but maybe it is too early for that.

By asking the vanilla townies to come forward and say what they tried to gain through their picks you are basically asking them to out what some of the higher up townies in the list picked and limiting where to look for the power roles. Say mafia had picks 1, 8, 12 and 15 in the draft (numbers picked entirely at random). You get the person who picked #5 to say "Well I went for ______ but someone else took it first." Now you know that 2, 3 or 4 has to be that power role. Mafia can already safely guess a few of the high ups for picking strong power roles with little WIFOM but having people come forward saying A. they are vts and B. they chose this role but it's already picked, eliminates a lot of the extra guess work that mafia would have to do in order to figure out where power roles ended up and which ones they will have to contend against. That information helps mafia more than town at this point. Now there are times when vts should stand up but they shouldn't stand up under the circumstances you mention.

Say for instance, #6 chose _____ but it was picked before him. #8 says something stupid and he is eventually forced to claim as a case builds on him. He comes out and says that he is the same role that #6 tried to pick. In that scenario, #6 should come out and say that #8 is lying.

[Whatsausage]

also: Role fishing? If by that you mean trying to figure out what we have/are up against then I suppose so. Just wanting to get us to share our knowledge, but maybe it is too early for that.

By asking the vanilla townies to come forward and say what they tried to gain through their picks you are basically asking them to out what some of the higher up townies in the list picked and limiting where to look for the power roles. Say mafia had picks 1, 8, 12 and 15 in the draft (numbers picked entirely at random). You get the person who picked #5 to say "Well I went for ______ but someone else took it first." Now you know that 2, 3 or 4 has to be that power role. Mafia can already safely guess a few of the high ups for picking strong power roles with little WIFOM but having people come forward saying A. they are vts and B. they chose this role but it's already picked, eliminates a lot of the extra guess work that mafia would have to do in order to figure out where power roles ended up and which ones they will have to contend against. That information helps mafia more than town at this point. Now there are times when vts should stand up but they shouldn't stand up under the circumstances you mention.

Say for instance, #6 chose _____ but it was picked before him. #8 says something stupid and he is eventually forced to claim as a case builds on him. He comes out and says that he is the same role that #6 tried to pick. In that scenario, #6 should come out and say that #8 is lying.

Quality reasoning there, little to disagree with. I should've been more clear with what I was searching for. I was looking for if any of the townies picking say 16+ decided they wouldn't get a fabulous role anyway and tried to pick a "scum" role to either block a scum at the very bottom or find out what the scum already have

[pancakemix]

I thought the Rock Star Mafia would choose two town to bodyguard him. Making the first two night attempts on them knock off a townie instead. Added protection and chance for town to kill each other, seemed pretty powerful to me.

I understand this sentiment, but because of the NK aspect required of it it's less of a threat than the Hero was in this instance (and, by virtue of that, less of a threat than anything above Hero on the threat list).

I don't think the suggestion was scummy, but I think there were better options.

It is comments like these that allow me to say the NRA conversation was not fruitless. This is role fishing at its finest and it is enough for me to give out my first vote of the game.

This is a valid interpretation, but Sausage's point isn't inherently false. The only way we'd actually know it was in the game is if we tried to pick it, and outting a vanilla (considering that they'd be less likely to be killed given their claim) is the lesser evil to having the NRA on the loose. Outside of that, we may as well be chasing dragons because we don't know for a fact the role is out there (consider that my denial of being NRA).

It it also does you no favors to tell someone you're going to lynch them based on their claim regardless of alignment. On D1.

Quality reasoning there, little to disagree with. I should've been more clear with what I was searching for. I was looking for if any of the townies picking say 16+ decided they wouldn't get a fabulous role anyway and tried to pick a "scum" role to either block a scum at the very bottom or find out what the scum already have

And that's pretty much how I took it. Sometimes phraseology is a powerful thing.

[Metsfanmax]

Anyone interested in pursuing something on Streaker? We have little else to go on, and his case against charm was too strong for what was actually there.

[Killuminati19]

@Whatsausage

I posted on page 6 voting for CPR Doctor. Maybe it wasn't posted correctly? I don't know, but that was my vote.

[Killuminati19]

Sorry, just catching up here. Just to be clear, I was 4th in the draft, did not request NRA and therefore, did not get it. This is my first time in a game like this. A lot to keep track of but I'll do my best. I would like to hear from dj fireside and what he might've selected.

[HotShot53]

@Whatsausage

I posted on page 6 voting for CPR Doctor. Maybe it wasn't posted correctly? I don't know, but that was my vote.

When storr runs a game, he has a separate thread for voting (http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 3&t=208086) So since your vote wasn't in there, it didn't count. Also, votes are supposed to be red and bolded, so they stand out.

[charm]

Hi Guys!
Any other girls in this mafia game?? If I'm the only girl then I win!

On a serious note - my thought for the day 1 vote is to look at the top 4 spots and the bottom 3 spots. That means 1/3 of the group and there has got to be a mafia player somewhere in there. Then, there is the question to the MOD...was the mafia able to talk during the role selection? Not sure if I caught that anywhere, but if yes then I assume there is a QT for the mafia, they were smart to work out the power roles and not top load all the good roles.

I also like the thought of targeting someone that did not vote for the Ban!
Although, I would like to vote Whatsausage or Streaker just for giving me a hard time - but then all of you would get pissy about that!
So for right now I'll just watch how things progress especially with the ones that fall into being...
1. top 4
2. bottom 3
3. did not ban
4. potentially playing nude

[charm]

P.S. I am not NRA Member - but I was nicknamed Annie Oakley at 8 years old! You should have seen how good I was at shooting Daddy's beer cans in the desert!

[legionnare]

So far there's not much talk outside of "who's took NRA/lynch whoever steps forward regardless" as if someone is going step forward into the noose at the very beginning of the game. The best I can think of would be to pressure someone nearer the bottom to claim and see if any of the higher drafts can call bulls**t on it. I'd say maybe the top 12-15 got their pick so perhaps looking at draft numbers 16-21 is a good start.

16 Zivel
17 jwiedlin
18 pancakemix
19 strike wolf
20 Iron Butterfly
21 Some7hingCLEVER

What say you?

[strike wolf]

Id say unneedfully limiting the search based on bs reasoning.

[charm]

How about we focus on the odd numbers?

Oh, wait, Wolfy would be in that list too!!

[strike wolf]

We could also focus on players whose name starts with Ch.

[Metsfanmax]

vote chilluminati

[legionnare]

Say for instance, #6 chose _____ but it was picked before him. #8 says something stupid and he is eventually forced to claim as a case builds on him. He comes out and says that he is the same role that #6 tried to pick. In that scenario, #6 should come out and say that #8 is lying.

@Strike I was basing my suggestion off what you said here, basically forcing someone lower down to claim and seeing if someone higher calls them out on it, you calling your own statement bs?

[Djfireside]

Streaker: It was 1,2. I figured id try it but definately didnt think it would land me where it did

As for all the fishing I can pick where I believe all the top roles are. I didnt get the hot role that everyone is on since it isnt any fun. In that aspect though, with SW coming out and saying lynch whoever claims NRA will drastically stop anyone from claiming it.

Charm since the mafia got to pick their own roles to ban I would have to assume they could talk and plotted it all out and its obvious the roles they banned. Beyond that point its all speculation. At least there are enough roles out there which should prove to be benefical

fp legion

[strike wolf]

The difference is I wasnt looking to do that out of the blue or even suggesting that that was the best way to proceed. I was saying in the event that someone under significant pressure decided to claim to avoid lynch and someone knew it was a fake claim based on being above them knows it is a fake than it is in their best interest to say so to prevent forcing the power role from claiming. But to limit the search to the bottom half of the list from the beginning just leaves too many potential scum at the top of the list from receiving scrutiny day 1. Lets also not forget that this could work in reverse where someone low on the list got a power role that someone above them on the list claims to be.

Anyways, long post short, my post was meant only to describe a scenario where stating what power role you failed to get could benefit town, not suggest a course of action.

[Whatsausage]

@Whatsausage

I posted on page 6 voting for CPR Doctor. Maybe it wasn't posted correctly? I don't know, but that was my vote.

No it wasn't posted correctly, but that's been covered and I believe you have learned now

But as to what you did vote... Why? (Ignoring that the deadline had passed) It was already far and ahead with the most votes, so why not choose between NRA and Godfather, whichever you believed to be a greater threat? Instead of just rolling along with the top consensus

[dd515087]

Sorry guys busy with school, I did not have much time to look at the forum till earlier tonight. Finally finished catching up on this. All the talk about the NRA Agent is pointless now that multiple people have come out saying they want to lynch him. Pursuing anyone too far up is probably not the best idea, we don't want mafia to know any of our strong power roles. I think somewhere in the upper-middle would be a good idea though, they may have tried for a stronger role, but had it already taken
Metsfan made a good point:

Anyone interested in pursuing something on Streaker? We have little else to go on, and his case against charm was too strong for what was actually there.

I can agree with that

[HotShot53]

I am home finally from another 11+ hour workday... I can't wait until Oct 15 when I can become a normal worker again

I'll just say this a different way so that it's clear. The only circumstance in which we get a situation beneficial to town is if some member of town took NRA member with the explicit intent to then tell everyone that they took NRA member so that town doesn't accidentally target them. IF THAT WERE THE CASE, then this person would have claimed already -- as soon as possible on D1 -- and we wouldn't need to go through this whole shtick which just wastes precious hours that we don't have. There is no likely circumstance in which the person that took NRA member is going to suddenly decide they want to tell everyone about it, if they didn't already plan to.

This is exactly what I planned to do... I figured that it would prevent power roles from accidentally dieing, and would protect me since as the #3 pick scum will figure I must have gotten some good role, so I expected to be targeted on one of the first couple days. I tried to wait to say the following until the top 2 players had commented... but I don't think I can wait any longer as these days are pretty short. I didn't get the NRA member since one of the top 2 players already took it. Dj just claimed it wasn't him, and since he has seemed more towny to me, I am inclined to believe him for now. (And assuming he isn't the nra member, would recommend he gets protected, as he should have the best power role since he could take anything he wanted)

So that leaves mtam... crasp mentioned that mtam was online yesterday when crasp was posting, but mtam didn't post... to me, that sounds like scummarizing. Besides that, he was proud of not reading the rules, voted for the role ban late and in the wrong thread. I've found one of the best way to get scummarizers to post is to vote them... so I will vote mtam

[Streaker]

Sorry guys busy with school, I did not have much time to look at the forum till earlier tonight. Finally finished catching up on this. All the talk about the NRA Agent is pointless now that multiple people have come out saying they want to lynch him. Pursuing anyone too far up is probably not the best idea, we don't want mafia to know any of our strong power roles. I think somewhere in the upper-middle would be a good idea though, they may have tried for a stronger role, but had it already taken
Metsfan made a good point:

Anyone interested in pursuing something on Streaker? We have little else to go on, and his case against charm was too strong for what was actually there.

I can agree with that

Can you please explain, now that you are here, how Mets makes a 'good' point trying to lynch me? What exactly makes it a 'good' point?

@Mets, My case on charm is ofcourse not of great value, but what else to do on D1? Discussion has to start somewhere, right? I just hopped on the first scummy thing I saw. At least I'm trying to get things going, as we only have 3 days. Not much time.
I still see reason to vote charm for picking assassin over certain other roles, though I'll give her credit for at least voting on a role and trying to get something banned.

[aage]

There are other reasons why the NRA member might not want to claim. As I pointed out earlier, I think it's actually numerically beneficial to town to keep the NRA member hidden for now -- the chances that town will hit the NRA member, weighted by the amount we need that townie with 21 players, is less than the chance that mafia will hit it, weighted by how much they need each of their ~5-6 expected players. If this person agrees with that and wants to stay hidden so that they can draw out the mafia, then claiming would make no sense. The reason I have a problem with the mass-non-claim isn't that it's a bad idea in principle; it's that it requires all of the town members to be on essentially the same wavelength regarding what to do, and that's a huge assumption with this many people. And no one has responded to this point. (So it's absurd that you claim I "doubt the plan without saying why," maybe you should actually read the thread...)

I did actually read the thread. This is the post I refer to, made precisely before the banning phase ended. And no, you did not mention NRA in any of your previous posts.

I would also like to call BS on your statistical reasoning since even though, yes, mafia may value their lives more, town probably has more roles (simply because there are more of them).

But, bigger than that, your entire point is self-defeating. Suppose I concede this, and agree that no town picked NRA member. If mafia has NRA member they're almost certainly not going to admit which one of them has it, because then we'll know they are mafia because no town picked NRA member! So town gets no information. The only way town gets information is if a town member picked NRA member and then claims -- the very thing you said makes no sense for a town member to have claimed! This whole plan stinks of either A) stupidity or B) scumminess.

No. You're misinterpreting my argument, in hindsight I phrased it quite vaguely. Picking NRA to deny it to mafia is pro-town play. Having done exactly that and not coming forward is non-town play. Even if some towny picked NRA with the intention of keeping quiet, I hope they realise that's a bad plan.



@ the person who suggested VTs should claim what they sent in
Bad plan. The town would get a pool of players amongst which some power role resides. The mafia gets the same pool... except they can cross out themselves. I think Strike already explained this, but maybe you don't trust him because he seems to have been screwed out of his pick.
If someone was ballsy enough to go for a clear anti-town role and ended up being a VT (like, I don't know, NRA) I do suggest they claim because that role is dangerous. That is why we wanted to ban it in the first place...

[grt]

So that leaves mtam... crasp mentioned that mtam was online yesterday when crasp was posting, but mtam didn't post... to me, that sounds like scummarizing. Besides that, he was proud of not reading the rules, voted for the role ban late and in the wrong thread. I've found one of the best way to get scummarizers to post is to vote them... so I will vote mtam

I'll second that - would be good to hear from mtamburini especially as he is likely to have a good role.