PYP~Mafia [05/21] end game

[grt]

Is it likely that most of mafia jumped on the band wagon to lynch Hotshot - I think so.

[aage]

Is it likely that most of mafia jumped on the band wagon to lynch Hotshot - I think so.

Yes, that is also one of the yields

Now, of DJ and mtam, one is the NRA person. Since we can talk during the night and we have 48 hours, I suggest we continue discussion and I'll open up with this proposition:

Should the non-NRA player use his role to target the other (knowing that they will die)?

I'm torn. I don't like sacrificing a player so town can lynch a scum but it will be a 100% foolproof method, as long as no other townies target them.
It also depends on what claims DJ and mtam have for us.

[Zivel]

Dj you got some explaining to do

You both do and right now I am having trouble seeing a scenario where day 2 can realistically end without both of you claiming. Well I could see where one of you comes out with an unbelievably unrealistic role choice but thats about it.

Mtam has already paved the way for him to have an unrealistic role choice.

The only reason why I use against the grain is because 95% of you would never pick this role if you were top 2 picks because you are not confident in your reads to figure shit out on your own and need either roles that will give you information or protect yourself from lynches cause your bad at the game.

[strike wolf]

I am leaning towards no on them suiciding against he other. Give the town a chance to live anyways.

[mtamburini]

Is it likely that most of mafia jumped on the band wagon to lynch Hotshot - I think so.

Yes, that is also one of the yields

Now, of DJ and mtam, one is the NRA person. Since we can talk during the night and we have 48 hours, I suggest we continue discussion and I'll open up with this proposition:

Should the non-NRA player use his role to target the other (knowing that they will die)?

I'm torn. I don't like sacrificing a player so town can lynch a scum but it will be a 100% foolproof method, as long as no other townies target them.
It also depends on what claims DJ and mtam have for us.

I was considering this but if im the first person to use my action on DJ then I die and my power on him doesnt work and it doesnt prove his alignment either.

[strike wolf]

Dj you got some explaining to do

You both do and right now I am having trouble seeing a scenario where day 2 can realistically end without both of you claiming. Well I could see where one of you comes out with an unbelievably unrealistic role choice but thats about it.

Mtam has already paved the way for him to have an unrealistic role choice.

The only reason why I use against the grain is because 95% of you would never pick this role if you were top 2 picks because you are not confident in your reads to figure shit out on your own and need either roles that will give you information or protect yourself from lynches cause your bad at the game.

Was part of the joke. Though technically against the grain does not mean unrealistic.

[charm]

MTam can be very tricky with claims! If he is scum, I wouldn't trust him but to come up with some really convincing story as to why he is not and some fantastic role that will hurt all us townies if he tells us his role. With that said, I am inclined to go after DJ because he is in the #1 position and RL or not, he has to be an early target. If both of them live through the night then we should really consider that both are mafia.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see who the mafia try to kill and the position in the list they attack. We will soon know if the mafia are strong or a bunch of wimps!

@HotShot - thanks for your list. Sorry to see you be the first to go!!

Start talking boys - there is no hiding in this game!

[Metsfanmax]

If both of them live through the night then we should really consider that both are mafia.

Not necessarily the case. If they don't get killed, it could just mean that no one wanted to risk visiting either of them, since either of them could be NRA.

[Whatsausage]

If both of them live through the night then we should really consider that both are mafia.

Not necessarily the case. If they don't get killed, it could just mean that no one wanted to risk visiting either of them, since either of them could be NRA.

Using that logic, then neither of them would be scum, as if one is scum NRA the scum would have no fear targeting the other. However; I find the most likely scenario to be that the scum target neither, leaving us to have to choose between them.

With that said, I am inclined to go after DJ because he is in the #1 position and RL or not, he has to be an early target.

Um, what? Explain. How does that make him a target for the town? It makes (made) him a target for scum because he was the only guaranteed PR, but that isn't really the case anymore as if mtam is scum, it would be foolish to kill dj

[pancakemix]

If both of them live through the night then we should really consider that both are mafia.

Not necessarily the case. If they don't get killed, it could just mean that no one wanted to risk visiting either of them, since either of them could be NRA.

Indeed, I already pointed this out: mafia wouldn't off the town one because of the risk of exposing the NRA.

[Metsfanmax]

Using that logic, then neither of them would be scum, as if one is scum NRA the scum would have no fear targeting the other. However; I find the most likely scenario to be that the scum target neither, leaving us to have to choose between them.

Well, you're neglecting the other case, where the NRA is town. (Though the likelihood of that is certainly now in question.)

Indeed, I already pointed this out: mafia wouldn't off the town one because of the risk of exposing the NRA.

Yes, true. In this scenario mafia's best bet would have been to jump in on that Hotshot band wagon; if they have NRA member (or even if they didn't, really) they knew he was telling the truth. Unfortunately, with like 12 of you assholes on that wagon, it's going to be hard to figure out who is who.

[Killuminati19]

4 of us had it right yesterday. Of course pancake accused us of coordinating. I don't see where there is much of a debate left on this topic.

[jonty125]

Lynching Hotshot would be a mistake in my opinion. I believe he is town, and I strongly urge those voting for him to reconsider.

There is evidence that djfireside is lying, and that makes him the better lynch. Dj made an indirect statement that he was not the NRA member (I didn't get the hot role). Furthermore, he offered additional information that was not asked for (since it isn't any fun). He also tried to bury this statement with separate topics before and after. This behavior is indicative of someone that is lying.

Streaker: It was 1,2. I figured id try it but definately didnt think it would land me where it did

As for all the fishing I can pick where I believe all the top roles are. I didnt get the hot role that everyone is on since it isnt any fun. In that aspect though, with SW coming out and saying lynch whoever claims NRA will drastically stop anyone from claiming it.

Charm since the mafia got to pick their own roles to ban I would have to assume they could talk and plotted it all out and its obvious the roles they banned. Beyond that point its all speculation. At least there are enough roles out there which should prove to be benefical

fp legion

I am voting Djfireside, and encouraging others to do the same.

FOS jwiedlin this reasoning is just plain horrible, WIFOM (almost like scumbuddies have told him to jump on DJ)

4 of us had it right yesterday. Of course pancake accused us of coordinating. I don't see where there is much of a debate left on this topic.

FOS Killuminati This could be a Freudian slip. How do you know you are "right"? What even is right? DJ is scum? DJ is NRA? You would only know if you're right if had more information than that was presented in the thread, and to the best of my imagination, only scum would have that information ...

[Killuminati19]

FOS me all you want jonty. I'll FOS you as well. Keep debating if you want, but all signs point to dj being NRA, and I would imagine, scum.

If I'm scum you want to tell me why I've spent yesterday trying to keep hotshot from lynch? What would be the point?

[virus90]

maybe the inventor can think of something smart to pull something off.
like a autoclaim self-airdrop and give it to one of them (airdrop technicly is not visiting so not killable?, check with mod)
or robo-suicide dog. (suicide overrides NRA)
only problem is you have to give it to someone you trust.

then on the mafia is on the hotshot vote list.
yes maybe. but then again maybe they are not. the majority on hotshot was probably town. (pretty sure about that)
so mafia was not nescesarrly among them cause it was needed for reaching the majority. you might aswell for that reason say they are among the votes on others to gain town cred. (i am not saying this but just pointing out)
my point is; among the 11 (if im correct) who votes hotshot, some might be mafia but its to many towny's to really use this as a way to find the mafia and mafia dint had to vote hotshot.

[jwiedlin]

FOS jwiedlin this reasoning is just plain horrible, WIFOM (almost like scumbuddies have told him to jump on DJ)

FOS Killuminati This could be a Freudian slip. How do you know you are "right"? What even is right? DJ is scum? DJ is NRA? You would only know if you're right if had more information than that was presented in the thread, and to the best of my imagination, only scum would have that information ...

Kill and I are suspicious for being right about Hotshot? What kind of ass-backward logic is that?

[pancakemix]

4 of us had it right yesterday. Of course pancake accused us of coordinating. I don't see where there is much of a debate left on this topic.

You, not so much (I'll admit I did mention you by name but that's beside the point). I'm willing to admit I was wrong in a situation like this, but I stand by my statement that it looked pretty damn coordinated and that the reasoning for voting DJ was misguided at best and scum behavior at worst. (See: Jonty's post)

FOS me all you want jonty. I'll FOS you as well. Keep debating if you want, but all signs point to dj being NRA, and I would imagine, scum.

If I'm scum you want to tell me why I've spent yesterday trying to keep hotshot from lynch? What would be the point?

I have gotten the impression that you're new to this, so I have to take this post with a grain of salt. However, I cannot discount the possibility that you are very smart, and so have to take this post into consideration with that in mind and say this is a very scummy thing to say. There are plenty of reasons why a scum would defend a townie. Town cred is a huge factor in a game like this and you're already appealing to it, which I would not be so quick to do.

FOS jwiedlin this reasoning is just plain horrible, WIFOM (almost like scumbuddies have told him to jump on DJ)

FOS Killuminati This could be a Freudian slip. How do you know you are "right"? What even is right? DJ is scum? DJ is NRA? You would only know if you're right if had more information than that was presented in the thread, and to the best of my imagination, only scum would have that information ...

Kill and I are suspicious for being right about Hotshot? What kind of ass-backward logic is that?

Actually, you're under suspicion for terrible logic. You did read what he wrote, yes?

[Killuminati19]

So let me get this straight pancake.......Hypothetically I'm mafia. I try to speed up the lynch of a now widely assumed mafia member (dj) while being almost on an island (atleast at first) defending hotshot? I was trying to gain town cred? There's a flip side to everything in here isn't there. Why can't it be that I just believed hotshot and wanted to get ahead by a day going for dj? Also, an hour or two before deadline, it seemed readily apparent to me that hotshot was indeed telling the truth. I gotta feel like I wasn't the only one. Some of you were on during this time (yourself included pancake). Why did you not switch your vote to dj?
You and mtam were just kind of like "oh well".
Fwiw, dj could be townie NRA, but if so, he did a poor job of reflecting that. townie or mafia NRA, I just don't see a day 2 scenario where dj isn't the lynch and me and a few others were trying to get that done yesterday.

[Whatsausage]

Fwiw, dj could be townie NRA, but if so, he did a poor job of reflecting that. townie or mafia NRA, I just don't see a day 2 scenario where dj isn't the lynch and me and a few others were trying to get that done yesterday.

I do. I see a scenario where we don't go in with our minds pre-decided. I see a scenario where we still have mtam just as much on the line. I see a scenario where the night changes things. (I even see a scenario where mtam (or dj) is town NRA, and the scum kill off dj (or mtam) to try and get us to vote off the NRA, though this one is terribly unlikely because the scum wouldn't know which is NRA)
You have to keep your mind open. Even if just a little bit

[aage]

So let me get this straight pancake.......Hypothetically I'm mafia. I try to speed up the lynch of a now widely assumed mafia member (dj) while being almost on an island (atleast at first) defending hotshot? I was trying to gain town cred? There's a flip side to everything in here isn't there. Why can't it be that I just believed hotshot and wanted to get ahead by a day going for dj? Also, an hour or two before deadline, it seemed readily apparent to me that hotshot was indeed telling the truth. I gotta feel like I wasn't the only one. Some of you were on during this time (yourself included pancake). Why did you not switch your vote to dj?
You and mtam were just kind of like "oh well".
Fwiw, dj could be townie NRA, but if so, he did a poor job of reflecting that. townie or mafia NRA, I just don't see a day 2 scenario where dj isn't the lynch and me and a few others were trying to get that done yesterday.

First of all, why is DJ widely assumed to be mafia, and why is mtam cleared? I must have missed the arguments.
Secondly, I don't believe in unvoting at the last second because the player you're voting made a last-minute "town post". It could not only be a last ditch effort to steer away the wagon, but it also should have no influence on the read you got from that person during the entire day. I had a scum read on Hotshot, I read and responded to his analysis post, and still I followed through for the reasons I just mentioned.
Thirdly, the ol' "oh, boy, I ended up not voting the lynched towny, I must be absolved of all suspicion now"-cliché.

I see a scenario where we don't go in with our minds pre-decided. I see a scenario where we still have mtam just as much on the line. I see a scenario where the night changes things. (I even see a scenario where mtam (or dj) is town NRA, and the scum kill off dj (or mtam) to try and get us to vote off the NRA, though this one is terribly unlikely because the scum wouldn't know which is NRA)
You have to keep your mind open. Even if just a little bit

Basically this.

[mtamburini]

Lynching Hotshot would be a mistake in my opinion. I believe he is town, and I strongly urge those voting for him to reconsider.

There is evidence that djfireside is lying, and that makes him the better lynch. Dj made an indirect statement that he was not the NRA member (I didn't get the hot role). Furthermore, he offered additional information that was not asked for (since it isn't any fun). He also tried to bury this statement with separate topics before and after. This behavior is indicative of someone that is lying.

Streaker: It was 1,2. I figured id try it but definately didnt think it would land me where it did

As for all the fishing I can pick where I believe all the top roles are. I didnt get the hot role that everyone is on since it isnt any fun. In that aspect though, with SW coming out and saying lynch whoever claims NRA will drastically stop anyone from claiming it.

Charm since the mafia got to pick their own roles to ban I would have to assume they could talk and plotted it all out and its obvious the roles they banned. Beyond that point its all speculation. At least there are enough roles out there which should prove to be benefical

fp legion

I am voting Djfireside, and encouraging others to do the same.

FOS jwiedlin this reasoning is just plain horrible, WIFOM (almost like scumbuddies have told him to jump on DJ)

4 of us had it right yesterday. Of course pancake accused us of coordinating. I don't see where there is much of a debate left on this topic.

FOS Killuminati This could be a Freudian slip. How do you know you are "right"? What even is right? DJ is scum? DJ is NRA? You would only know if you're right if had more information than that was presented in the thread, and to the best of my imagination, only scum would have that information ...

Finally found something to like about you. I was thinking the same thing when I read this!

[mtamburini]

Im going to do something I have never done before and go reread some clan games later when i get home from school and see if this play lines up with any of his previous games. If I remember correctly him being over defensive like this he was town. Id like my clanmates to also give a read on kill and say what you think about him.

[aage]

Indeed, I already pointed this out: mafia wouldn't off the town one because of the risk of exposing the NRA.

Yes, true. In this scenario mafia's best bet would have been to jump in on that Hotshot band wagon; if they have NRA member (or even if they didn't, really) they knew he was telling the truth. Unfortunately, with like 12 of you assholes on that wagon, it's going to be hard to figure out who is who.

Moreover, by jumping on HotShot mafia bought 2 kills with one role. Not as much as they would've liked to get form NRA, but still a reasonable yield for the situation. However, I don't think we should minimize our scope to these people since there might be more going on.

Spoiler

There is a conspiracy theory to be made here.

Both grt and jwiedlin voted for *an inactive*, IB, "to avoid a mislynch on the top three". Mets is with them. This reasoning makes no sense - Town is offered a 50/50 deal on a scum lynch by HS on day 1 and they don't take it. Even at the 33/33/33 Town should take this deal because it's better odds than random, and offers the chance to lynch NRA scum.

Regardless, IB shows up again and votes No Lynch, and grt and jwiedlin happily unvote to jump to DJ.

I believe Hotshot is VT and he is telling the truth. Which leaves Djfireside or mtamburini as NRA. The fact that neither has claimed this leads me to believe one is mafia (or they are scared of being lynched even if they are town). The dilemma is which to choose - mtamburini has been the more vocal of the 2 and initially started the lynch on hotshot but then this could have been due to hotshot starting the lynch on mtam. I'm leaning towards Dj as NRA & mafia.

Lynching Hotshot would be a mistake in my opinion. I believe he is town, and I strongly urge those voting for him to reconsider.

There is evidence that djfireside is lying, and that makes him the better lynch. Dj made an indirect statement that he was not the NRA member (I didn't get the hot role). Furthermore, he offered additional information that was not asked for (since it isn't any fun). He also tried to bury this statement with separate topics before and after. This behavior is indicative of someone that is lying.

I am voting Djfireside, and encouraging others to do the same.

So initially they fear a mislynch and vote for someone down the list who isn't posting. This is reasonable in a way (if you're dead set on not taking the 50/50 gamble) - they're not likely to get a good role anyway, and they're inactive, so not a big loss.
Next, IB posts two posts. In the first he apologises for being inactive and announces that he'll read up and vote. (This vote is a No Lynch vote, note this.) Then justifies this vote by saying:

I put a no lynch up thinking I was at deadline and 2 people had been killed Day one ends 10/8 I see I have some time.

This should not be a deterrent for town to suddenly change their mind about an inactive with likely a shitty role (if one at all) and turn their strategy 180 degrees. However, this is what happens.

Now why are they voting DJ suddenly? Because HotShot changed his mind about mtam, and voted DJ, in this post (not gonna quote): http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 5#p4565915

Why did they not want to risk a mislynch initially? Why did they change their mind? Are they 100% convinced DJ is scum?
It seems that way.
But why?
Because grt, jwiedlin and killuminati say he is?
Because between the two, mtam posted shitloads while DJ didn't post anything?
That's what they're basing their ~100% scum read on? (yes, ~100%, because we wouldn't want to risk a mislynch, would we?)

This might be bullshit but it's an analysis I can't get out of my head.

[Killuminati19]

Fwiw, dj could be townie NRA, but if so, he did a poor job of reflecting that. townie or mafia NRA, I just don't see a day 2 scenario where dj isn't the lynch and me and a few others were trying to get that done yesterday.

I do. I see a scenario where we don't go in with our minds pre-decided. I see a scenario where we still have mtam just as much on the line. I see a scenario where the night changes things. (I even see a scenario where mtam (or dj) is town NRA, and the scum kill off dj (or mtam) to try and get us to vote off the NRA, though this one is terribly unlikely because the scum wouldn't know which is NRA)
You have to keep your mind open. Even if just a little bit

Here's another possibility sausage. You are scum. You're posts have been dripping with it from the start.

@ aage - Let's not act like hotshot made 1 townie post at the end. The train of thought that he was lying about NRA was a tall tale to begin with.

@ mtam - If you are what I think you are, I should be your best friend in this game.

[Killuminati19]

@ sausage - If dj is here tomorrow, what do you want to wager that dj isn't the lynch? Maybe enough (probably scum) will persuade a push on mtam, but my guess is people like you will try to argue about it up until deadline, but ultimately, dj is the lynch.