Elimination quiz

[Extreme Ways]

Guilty of misplaying this. I wouldve gone for the 3v3 vs R10 then S10, since it's your last shot, but would not have thought of only advancing 2 on S13.

[mookiemcgee]

For someone who is in a leadership position here at CC Lindax sure is a prick and a blowhard ... It's a wonder CC and Clan membership numbers aren't skyrocketing with people like him at the helm.

[mc05025]

I usually ignore so clueless posts, but I will make an exception here and play a multiple choice answer because I am not certain which is the best reply in each case.

Really? Was that the big answer? I was looking for something really intelligent.

a) So, you call everyone else who searched for the answer and failed stupid? Not polite
b) You are welcome to join the intelligent sector of CC and leave us in our stupidity
c) I guess you spotted it and didnt notice noone else had done the same and that is why you didn't offer the solution
d) You had found the solution but waited to see if some of the less intelligent ones would find it as well
e)I had invented relativity theory before Einstein. But I was searching for something really intelligent
f) Does this answer work if you fail to answer a question in school?

Any good escalating player would try that move.

a) Yes, but not you
b) Yes, do you know anyone?
c) Indeed, but good escalating players obviously do not read the forums and so the answer was not to be found in the topic
d) You are right! The forums exist for good players only. It is pointless to offer a simple puzzle to less experienced players who have not thought of such a possibility
e)Yes, but we must keep this move a secret to ourselves, otherwise they will all become good escalating players

However, no matter how you try, any given day of the week, you would not get half of green's troops without super dice.

a) Not any given day of the week. Since it is 20%, I would fail on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays and succeed in Fridays
b) You are right. I should have rolled better earlier and have 20 troops instead of 13
c) You are right. Killing them all is 20% but killing half of them is super dice
d) Even if I try really hard?

That incredible move you "came up with" may up your chances by a tiny bit, with the emphasis on "may", but you'd still need pretty magical dice.

a) Thank you for calling me a good escalating player
b) Yes, that is how math works. If 18% DOES become 20%, then our chances MAY up a tiny bit
c) Makes sense. If I need magical dice, then I should probably play it the wrong way
d) I didn't "come up with" that incredible move. An intelligent and good escalating player showed it to me
e) He wasn't you of course
f) Damn, I should create an example with bigger percentage differences than 2%.

Now, here's a question for you: Would you use auto during any of this adventure?

a) Thank you for making a really serious question instead of my stupid one!
b) No, everybody knows auto rolls worse than casual assault
c) No, we must live and feel every moment of the adventure, screaming, shouting and cursing the gods of luck in every lost troop during the procudure
d) Yes, I always use auto if I intend to attack to the end and so should you as well
e) Of course not. Auto is controlled by CC, aliens and illuminati. Failure is certain

I would call a vote for most appropriate answers.

LOL

OK I would go with F, E, D, D and the last one is really hard between C and E

BTW after doing the trick with advancing +1, R14 should go all the way and only if fail against the 5 stack, Q10 should try. In other words, you should not do the 2v5 on S10 but rather first attack S10 with the bigger stack and later with the smaller (i.e the hopefully surviving 2 of R10)

[Kaskavel]

Correct. And that is what really good players do. They contribute.
By the way, there is another mistake in the topic I just noticed. The numbers Leehar offered and I reproduced are not accurate, because they imply that the elimination will fail if the 6vs1 fails. That is not true.

[Extreme Ways]

BTW after doing the trick with advancing +1, R14 should go all the way and only if fail against the 5 stack, Q10 should try. In other words, you should not do the 2v5 on S10 but rather first attack S10 with the bigger stack and later with the smaller (i.e the hopefully surviving 2 of R10)

I think this is implied when R10 is mentioned, as it's super obvious (like not in the way everything else was super obvious).

[IcePack]

A quick test for escalating players.

Click image to enlarge.

So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

I know you mention the best course of action is S14 vs S13, and only advancing 1 (total of 2) so that you can do S13 vs R13 without risk of failure.
However, I'm interested if thats really the best case?

Whats the chances of S13 vs R13 failing 2 vs 2? (really, its 1 vs 2)
Now, compare that to the chances of advancing more. What is the chance of the 3 vs 2 dice gets a double kill?
If that chance is small, is it possible that in the end advancing 2 (so its 4 vs 2, rolling 3 vs 2) is a better option statistically?
Depending on the chances of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 result it may actually be better (even though theres a chance it blocks the stack)
but statistically speaking, that really bad chance might be small enough to warrant the second shot @ S13 vs R13 if you fail the first shot.

[mookiemcgee]

A quick test for escalating players.

Click image to enlarge.

So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

I know you mention the best course of action is S14 vs S13, and only advancing 1 (total of 2) so that you can do S13 vs R13 without risk of failure.
However, I'm interested if thats really the best case?

Whats the chances of S13 vs R13 failing 2 vs 2? (really, its 1 vs 2)
Now, compare that to the chances of advancing more. What is the chance of the 3 vs 2 dice gets a double kill?
If that chance is small, is it possible that in the end advancing 2 (so its 4 vs 2, rolling 3 vs 2) is a better option statistically?
Depending on the chances of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 result it may actually be better (even though theres a chance it blocks the stack)
but statistically speaking, that really bad chance might be small enough to warrant the second shot @ S13 vs R13 if you fail the first shot.

I was thinking this also, but didn't have the patience or intelligence to do the math

[Kaskavel]

A quick test for escalating players.

Click image to enlarge.

So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

I know you mention the best course of action is S14 vs S13, and only advancing 1 (total of 2) so that you can do S13 vs R13 without risk of failure.
However, I'm interested if thats really the best case?

Whats the chances of S13 vs R13 failing 2 vs 2? (really, its 1 vs 2)
Now, compare that to the chances of advancing more. What is the chance of the 3 vs 2 dice gets a double kill?
If that chance is small, is it possible that in the end advancing 2 (so its 4 vs 2, rolling 3 vs 2) is a better option statistically?
Depending on the chances of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 result it may actually be better (even though theres a chance it blocks the stack)
but statistically speaking, that really bad chance might be small enough to warrant the second shot @ S13 vs R13 if you fail the first shot.

Not in this case man, but in fact your question is one of the more interesting ones that exist in risk, because there ARE indeed cases that you have to make the 3 vs 2 first. I searched the subject some time ago and I had found most of the cases

The math goes like this

X original chance of succeeding the sweep
Y improved chance of succeeding the sweep (after reducing the first enemy cell from 2 to 1 with a split 3vs2 attack)

In order for the attack to be favourable we need X<0.3241Y+0,4483X
32,41% is the chance of a split, when you get your new improved chances. 44.83% is the chance you fail 0-2, when you obviously retain your original X probability. Of course if you win 2-0, new probability is zero

So, we need 0.5517X<0.3241Y or Y>1.7X
This is the magic equation. If reducing the 2 to a singleton improves your chances by more than 70% (compared to the original ones), then you have to make the 3vs2! As it is obvious, an attempt at 60% for example, cannot be improved 70%, it would go above 100%. But with small numbers it works sometimes. Checking it out you can find that the attack is favourable in the following eliminations

4,3 vs 2,x (x>2)
5,3 vs 2,x (x>5)
5,3 vs 2,2,x (x>1)
etc

[Kaskavel]

A quick test for escalating players.

Click image to enlarge.

So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

I know you mention the best course of action is S14 vs S13, and only advancing 1 (total of 2) so that you can do S13 vs R13 without risk of failure.
However, I'm interested if thats really the best case?

Whats the chances of S13 vs R13 failing 2 vs 2? (really, its 1 vs 2)
Now, compare that to the chances of advancing more. What is the chance of the 3 vs 2 dice gets a double kill?
If that chance is small, is it possible that in the end advancing 2 (so its 4 vs 2, rolling 3 vs 2) is a better option statistically?
Depending on the chances of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 result it may actually be better (even though theres a chance it blocks the stack)
but statistically speaking, that really bad chance might be small enough to warrant the second shot @ S13 vs R13 if you fail the first shot.

On second read, I am not certain if you suggested 4vs2 or 3vs2, you said "advance 2", implying a 3vs2, but then you said something about 4vs2, rolling 3vs2. In any case, making a full attack with 3 dice has no point. Chances of a split are almost identical in 4vs2 and 3vs2, but chances to win 2-0 rise dramatically with 3 dice, so it should never, or almost never, be a favourable option