Wow, that's a lot to chew from the get go. I'll try and tackle everything.
Fircoal wrote:mandalorian2298 wrote:
2) Since, as I previously stated, we are at LYLO and all the Cult needs to speedlynch me for the win is to convince one Townie or Shenzi to vote me, I'll claim right now:
I AM SIMBA!
Your ruler, king and saviour.
So no, Pika, Skoffin being Simba isn't a viable explanation for her PR. Skoffin being Scar is.
In summation: Unvote me, vote Skoffin.
Or, by all means, continue wasting time just so that you don't have to admit that Cult got an extra recruitment Night because of your insistence on ignoring the the obvious.
But you could vote on Day 1? Did you hear anything about not being able to vote in your role PM? OTherwise I feel like this is baseless and coming from nowhere.
Half hearted attempt at baiting out a claim. That's easily explained and seen if I'm thinking like Mandy atm.
Fircoal wrote:DirtyDishSoap wrote:
So, myself included, we have 3 confirmed with 6 unconfirmed.
A water buffalo, a ostrich and Simba.
Who I expect to still be alive.
Town
Nala
Timon
Pumbaa
Sarabi
Scum
Scar
Shenzi
I can't see Gopher being present in this as both the Watcher and Tracker roles have been filled. Cop possibly, but I think of the 4 listed currently, or even Simba, would have this role.
I find this to be very interesting. Add to it that Skoffin has now claimed Nala and we're very soon going to get to a point where we might be able to figure out who is lying just by names, or at least have a better idea of what's going on here. The only thing is I feel like there has to be some fake claim for the scum to fall into or else name claiming would let finding the scum be trivial, so I do wonder if all of these characters are actually in the game.
At this stage, it'd be incredibly hard to fake a claim without it being countered. There's two VT's left, myself included. We have Mitch, and although I find him suspect, he's still at the bottom of my list of "threatening". If he is scum, he's a pawn. Anyone else that claims a VT at this point is likely Scar/Shenzi. So far the theme has been following the first Lion King movie. If someone were to claim from a sequel, it's almost 99.99% a fake claim as well and we could lynch that. Of that I'm certain.
Fircoal wrote:mandalorian2298 wrote:Skittles! wrote:
In saying this, I think it's almost a safe bet to have people roleclaim so we can try and get the last scum. I'm still not 100% sold on the idea of cult, but in a game like this with a set storyline behind it, there aren't many more names that can be thrown out.
On the mass roleclaim idea (which I too advocated at one point): I don't think that it's right move for Day 4. As I said, someone role-blocked me this Night. If it turns out that am wrong about Skoffin, then it was most probably a Townie Roleblocker who suspected me. If, however, I am right, then it's almost certainly a Cult-recruited Roleblocker, who could hinder Town more efficiently if he knows whom to block. I'm especially worried about the Cop' and the Doc' claims being exploited.
I disagree completely. The massclaim made no sense that early but now it might make some sense. Massclaims are better for the town the more that the days go on, there's more to go on, and there's more of a chance to figure out what is what. At this point the power roles should have some information, and it's better to share that information rather than to let it die with the user as they die. Depending on the information it could be great to let it out.
Well, we already lost a tracker and a watcher. We have a cop left, and why they haven't revealed at this point to prevent this "LYLO" situation, I'll never know, unless Mandy/Simba is actually the cop, which makes sense given the bargain/post.
Fircoal wrote:mandalorian2298 wrote:
b) Why I don't think that DDS is Mafia?: I don't think that Dakky was really a Day Vig. I think that 'The Hunt' even during Day 1 worked in a similar fashion as 'The Hunt' in my NJO Mafia: Dakky got to pick either three players, killing all among them who are members of Hyena Mafia; or he got to pick one and was possibly rewarded with extra kills for each pick.
The reason why I think that 'Pick Three' was more likely is because 1) hitting a hyena out of three tries is amazing but hitting it out of one try would have been absolutely incredible; 2) We discussed earlier "Why was Ragian targeted?" It is a lot easier to explain if he was 1 out of the 3 targets (the other two being Sam and DDS, since three of them were togather in defense of No Lynch); 3) If there was a mechanism in place to, if not ensure, then at least make it more likely that Mufasa croakes early in the game, it would make sense that he had been compensated by being a little OPed during his short time in the game, and 3 chances to hit a hyena is IMO more fair compensation the just one.
Anyhow, if this wild specualtion is true (and I am nowhere near certain that it is) then DDS is IMO most likely to have been chosen by Dakky for The Hunt, but survived because he is not a hyena.
I don't think that checked out though. If Dakky had a power like that, why wouldn't he just tell us who the other 2 he picked were? That'd give us so much information that it'd be stupid broken. That ability would be equal to 3 cop investigations but done at the start of the game, and the scum get cleared out! That'd be BROKEN. So no I'm not buying that he had that. Nor am I buying his kill was scripted. I think that's just how it all played out.
Sounds like an overpowered vet or a Marshall ability. If he had that ability, it would make sense for him to die Day 1 given just how utterly broken that whole theory sounds.
Otherwise, it makes 0 sense for him to tell us since his ability because...Well he died night 1. Would you really reveal to scum "LOL! Hi guys! I shot Ragian!"?
I doubt Dakky had the ability to do it. If anything, he was a vig with a 1 shot day kill ability. King honestly doesn't specify what his ability exactly did, but since there's only been one kill a night, I have to assume he was a vig.
Fircoal wrote:mandalorian2298 wrote:Now we wait for Fircoal to finally show up and say that he just doesn't see it.
@Fircoal, while you are dismissing me, I would be real interested to hear why YOU think that Roleblocking Skoffin would block me last Night.
Because you're advocating for her lynch? I mean it doesn't take that much to put 2 and 2 together. If she's a town roleblocker and she thinks you're spreading lies to get her lynched it makes sense for her to roleblock you.
Your argument already assumes that she's scum and thusly it makes no sense.
I also think Skoffin should fully claim before anyone tries to lynch her. I'm against lynching her but regardless information is good so any information she can tell us is important and necessary.
Hold on, what? You roleblock someone who appears scummy to you, not block them out of a grudge, it's just poor play to do it. Even if you think someone is a misguided ass but is actively scum hunting, you don't just role block them on the basis that they tried to get you lynched. Even then, Skoffin hasn't revealed her role, so I'm not going to assume that she actually did.
I too want that information, however.
mandalorian2298 wrote:Minister Masket wrote:I'm posting this from an Omaha hotel lobby so apologies for not having the time to make a more elaborate post, but I completely disagree with a Skoff lynch, and I won't be hammering her.
Just saw she claimed Nala and I believe her, especially if no-one else counter-claims. She's been posting from a similar place as myself role-wise pretty much since Day 1, and it's gonna be a huge mistake if she's lynched now.
What role would Nala have? I'm thinking Doc, and if we lose that now, town is in real trouble.
Do we
really want to risk that when mitch could possibly still be scum? Or if he is town and thus another VT?
I think it's much more likely that Sarabi is the Doc. Don't you think it's more likely that Sarabi is the Doc?
It'd make sense for her to be a bodyguard. Protective mother, willing to take a bullet for her cub, that sort of mindset. Could be wrong. Goes either way. Timon or Pumbaa could be doc in a sense of "nursing back to health" found Simba in the desert and showed him their way of life. It'd be tough to really say who's role is who's.
mandalorian2298 wrote:OK so we need one more vote from one of the following players:
Skoff: Not going to vote for herself
Pika: Defended Skoffin all the way, to the point of accidentally on purpose forgetting to unvote me after I claimed Simba. If Skoff is Cult then he is Cult too.
Pika's a she? My bad. Oops.
Looking like this whole fucking game is becoming one giant grudge. Granted, I'm not a fan of Mandy either at this point because of his inability to budge on his stances, but lol.
mandalorian2298 wrote:Chu: Absolutely refuses to agree with me on anything in this game. It's cute.
Masket: Missed the Kwan wagon (Scum) followed me (his words) on Sam wagon (Town) and now I have lost his love.
You could apply that to me as well, but for different reasoning. I suspect Masket, but it's not as high as Hotshot.
mandalorian2298 wrote:DDS: Most likely among the five to be both rational and pro-Town. Thus the one I'm going to court. Here goes:
Dear DDS,
I know that you don't hold my judgement in very hard regard right about now, in no small part because you think that I'm more interested in imposing my will on the game then I am in Town winning. This is not true. The reason why I am arrogant and forceful is that those are the traits that people are most likely to respond to and the way in which they respond is an expression of both their personality AND their motivation. Up to a point, my goal is to act as a catalyst, to shake things up and to create, to a degree, chaos; because, to quote the movie "Chaos": "Chaos has some order to it."
I am NOT claiming that everything has gone according to my designs. There have been mistakes and there have been misses. However, it is my belief that we are currently in possession of enough info to successfully conclude this game.
So, here is my proposition: If you agree to seriously reconsider hammering Skoffin, if necessary to reread my argument against her (which I would be more then happy to present again); I will agree to do two things:
1) After you have signaled your agreement I am going to post my analysis of all the remaining players, as you have previously suggested, which I have so far been refusing to do because it risks splitting votes in this crucial stage.
2) After the hammer has dropped, provided that I manage to faspost Nag, I am going to list all my Night Actions to this point (this part of the offer stands even if someone else hammers, just please add that to the hammering post and I promise to heed your wish).
What say you?
I have to decline. Here's why.
b]We[/b] definitely don't have enough info to go off of. We have a theory, a theory that you kept pushing after Sam flipped town. If you're a cop, then just reveal it, the actions with it, and then I'll hammer it home. It makes absolutely no sense for me to place 100% faith alone given the record that you previously stated has been wrong before, which I feel like at this point, is wrong again. If you investigated Skoffin and she flipped scum/cult, then wasting our time withholding that info isn't helping. I get that you want to be the town hero or the MVP for this game, but please, for the sake of argument here and to prove me wrong, just reveal so we can move onto Day 5 and more than likely win this game. I suspect 2 of the 4 people on that vote wagon currently is Scar and Shenzi
if I'm right. I'll go into my 2nd reason with the post afterwards.
mandalorian2298 wrote:Cool I have 9% battery left so I can answer Fircoal:
1) My being Simba disproves Pika's hypothesis that Skoff's PR could be explained by her being Simba.
2) Mass roleclaim is going to he CULT to win. That would be the counter-Mass Claim mechanism as well as the reason why Nag added Cult to the game.
3) Dakky didn't claim he's Mufasa on Day 1 because he is improving his game and he obviously didn't expect to be NKed on Night 1. Also notice that his role was (King) not (Day Vig).
4) Skoffin roleblocked me to "stop me from spreading lies about her"? Thanks for playing along, it was as amusing as I expected.
[/quote]
- You were baiting a name now that you revealed as Simba. I applaud the play.
[*]No, we can't be for sure of that. IF your theory earlier about me being cleared due to "The Hunt" mechanic, it'd make more sense for that making mass claiming dangerous, since a day kill ability against a bunch of players who are claiming/fake claiming, can result in an accidental death. Assuming Dakky wasn't theme killed, it could have been something along the lines of "Scar has identified Mufasa and has tossed the King off the cliff, and has banished Simba". I picture something entirely different if a mass claim had happen then rather than now. Whatever that mechanic is, it shouldn't be a "lulz, you lose". It'd be pretty damn stupid. Also, while typing this long post, I'm going to reply to the "lynching of the last hynea." Again, if we identify
SCAR, then the cult recruitment stops.[/list]
[*]See my earlier post.[/list]
[*]We haven't established her role yet. If she claims roleblocker, then yeah, I can say that's scummy. If she claims something else, and there's a counter, well, we can look into it further.[/list]
The whole point of the mass claim is to gather as much info as possible. A mechanic that outright ends the game because of something as common as a mass claim is inane. But since you kinda backpedaled that by saying we lynch Shenzi instead, well, we lose.
We have one prime suspect already, that's Hotshot, because of his lurking. I'm more interested in pressuring him.
Anyways. Until something better comes out of this, rather than just theories. I'm putting Hotshot up for A. Lurking. and B. Immediately jumping on the bandwagon. It hasn't sat right with me. All of a sudden from out of the blue, he just suddenly suspects Skoffin of being scum when evidence has suggested otherwise. Again, he makes his post after he was called out. He just has an utter lack of involvement in the game.[/size]
Vote Hotshot
Disclaimer: The text is slightly bigger because in the preview, it kept shrinking it for some stupid ass reason.
