The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[BuJaber]

Okay pretty much 3 people are directing the entire conversation around pretty much 3 targets only.

This is a terrible situation for town. We need KJ, Hotshot, MM, Samlen, Pika, MP to voice their opinions clearly as soon as possible.

Also we absolutely need to widen our perspective, and consider the possibility of being wrong. But even more importantly, we should think about what our opinion would be if each of the 3 suspects flips town or scum.

So I will start:
If I ignore my feelings towards MP for now and assume I'm wrong about him... my top suspects would be Hotshot and KJ, maybe Samlen, but honestly that's mainly because they are being eclipsed by the more active players and we've not had a chance to really read them. Plus KJ was overly defensive when he first joined and that still doesn't sit right with me.
It is unlikely that Flores and ZaBeast are scum, but if they are then this game may be doomed already.

Lynch suspect outcomes:
1. mitch - if he flips town, people pushing for his lynch and completely ignoring my very well-reasoned counter argument would be highly suspect. Especially now that Ragian has stated that he agrees that mitch is probably town.
if he flips scum, I don't think I'll be able to avoid getting lynched, so at least that's 1 town 1 scum dead. Plus me dying will likely shortlist the remaining scum so this is a relatively good outcome. However given that I think he's town, this is unfortunately wishful thinking.

2. BuJ - if I flip town this is bad because unfortunately I have distracted town with my earlier reckless posting, and so they wouldn't gain much information from it as scum would just jump on the wagon without being scrutinized.
If I flip scum - fantastic for town. Unfortunately, that is an impossible outcome.

3. MudPuppy - if he flips town I will focus very heavily on the inactive/less active players. But I'll probably end up being targeted again though which could lead to 2 consecutive nights with townies lynched. Terrible outcome.
if he flips scum, I will attempt to analyze every time anyone has tried to build a case on MP since day 1 (me mostly), and gauge the repsonses. Someone somewhere would have made a slip exposing them. But I can't go looking for that now without knowing for sure that MP is scum. Gotta lynch first.

Final note: We were promised on day 1 that MM is a beast at playing day 2 onwards. (paraphrasing and possible hyperbole) Show us the magic please. Apart from the mason claim, not that much coming from you. Feeling teased here.

Every game is a learning experience. In the pokemon game for example I learnt that if your win condition is to get killed during the night don't act like you have a power role because that would get you lynched before night even comes.

This game so far I learnt that it is better for a town player to post less and risk being accused of scumarining than it is to post more and have people think you're scum for your posts.
Also learnt that is basically always a safe move for scum to try to lynch mitch. (As players on this forum we should probably work to change this, it's becoming pretty damn bad).

[madmitch]

@ Thorth talking about a flaw in the game the way you were playing was far worse than me and you were proven town, and yes it took me a while to believe it because you were playing like a comeplete scumbag. SO BACK OFF

[Minister Masket]

We were promised on day 1 that MM is a beast at playing day 2 onwards. (paraphrasing and possible hyperbole) Show us the magic please. Apart from the mason claim, not that much coming from you. Feeling teased here.

Very much hyperbole. Also, bare in mind the possibility of my day posting being average but my actions side of play to be dangerous.
I think you're onto something with the last bit of your post there though in saying t'is less risky to post less. I've sometimes thought that myself in past games as you do often see big posters attract alot of flack.

The townish* vote seems to be getting split three ways.
(Four, if I count Minister's vote on Ragian. MM, please elaborate more on that).

There's really not much else to say following on from the post where I voted him. I don't entirely believe his 'ignorance' excuse of the mason role, especially after the venomous-like posting in trying to generate a bandwagon on me.
I don't feel the need to go back and start quoting the many examples of this from his posts as they were only from the last day phase, but that may have to change fairly soon.

I don't see much merit in either of the other three people being voted. mitch is showing clear evolution in his play, which I don't think he would risk doing as scum. Meanwhile Buj and Mudpuppy haven't done anything to trigger my attention personally. I think we're forgetting that having lost a scum already, it's possible there's only two left (though more likely there's three).
Alongside Ragian, it's feasible a lurker (KJ?) could be the other one, and everyone else is town.

[ZaBeast]

@Rags: If MP flips scum, HS is town for sure. MP jumped on the HS wagon near the end of D1 when thor was confirmed town and it looked like HS had good chances to be lynched. BuJ would go way up in my town reads because he made the first case on MP. If it wasn't for the timing, I'd say he'd be town for sure. Unfortunately, he made his case when MP hadn't much chance of getting lynched, so it might have been a clever scum tactic. I'll need to look back if he continued to advocate for a MP lynch after that. I think he did vote him at the beginning of D2, but gave up soon after. As to who would be scum, I don't really know right now. I'd need to read back some stuff before I made my mind. We'll think about it when (if) we get there. We should lynch the player that is the most likely to be scum, and not the one that would give the most reads when he dies.

btw @BuJ, about mitch, that's exactly the opposite: the bar for a post of him to be scummy is pretty high, so he's somewhat a liability to town. If he's scum, he can get away with most of his slips (it's just mitch being mitch after all). If he's town, he can still be unpredictable at times (but if he's town, it's a good improvement he asked for a vote count before voting dakky to make sure he didn't hammer).
Also, don't go around complaining about the lack of cases being brought forward and in the same post say that townies are better off not posting. You either try to move things forward, at the risk of looking scummy, or let others decide who they'd rather lynch. In the end, I'll vote for the player that will look the scummiest (provided he has reasonnable chances of getting lynched), regardless if I or someone else built the case. But you're right, somebody posting less might attract less attention. That's exactly why scummarining is considered scummy.

[FloresDelMal]

okay, since life has kindly cutted me some slack lately i went back and i browsed through puppies posts and they are few and mostly fluff, i think that's why he made less of an impression than the other ppl in my likely scum list, i wont clutter the thread posting again what zabeast neatly organized recently, but if you need to check it out again here is his quote:

Spoiler

I thought I might give a rundown of the different arguments for voting the main lynch candidates (imo) (stolen from me and other people, for your convenience)
1) MudPuppy:

• My "role fishing" deserves suspicion, yet dakky's doesn't
• BuJ argument: he wanted to unvote thor on D1 because he didn't care who between him and MM would die but could potentially point fingers at the lynchers
• Saying he's a "member of the hesitant/cautious lot", yet is completely fine with dakky shoting at random, as long as he doesn't kill thor

  For the hesitant/cautious lot.. if y'all want to wait for IP's replacement we will wait. But if a deadline is announced I expect a lynch. We have enough good suspects that we can manage this. Any delays then would look very scummy.

  I, as a member of the hesitant/cautious lot, am on board with this approach. I prefer to wait for a replacement to join but also don't want to see another no-lynch day.

  My first choice is BuJaber, second Thor, third Mitch and fourth Flores. MM, DDS also possible, and those not currently voting me. Third group includes Samlen, Puppy and Ragian, so I'll set up three random.org pools and come up with three names and then random them who to kill, so we must be very unlucky if I shoot the cop or some other important power role.
  
  I wonder why no one suggested yet who should I kill, 7 people on my lynch but no one said who to shoot.

  I suggest you don't shoot Thor. Pretty fine with whoever you think best after that. Not sure I understand who your groups are or why you group them in that fashion... but whatever floats your boat. If you think random is best, then go for it. Whatever you choose, we'd get some good information.
  
  If you do get lynched, you really can't blame anyone but yourself.... You aren't playing like you want to live.

  And these are two consecutive posts
• Trying to restart a dead bandwagon about 48 hours before the deadline (D2). He didn't vote prior to that. Why not do that while it still had a chance to get traction? Especially when his first post of the day contained this quote:

  Anyway, none of this "it's another D1" nonsense... it's D2 and we need to string someone up.

  At this point, any wagon on someone other than dakky would have resulted in either a speed lynch or a no lynch, possibly without the lynchee having even the possibility to claim. Also, I don't see how he could think MM is less guilty of trying to fly under the radar than HS.
• Posts sparingly, and sometimes fluff

2) BuJ

• Proposes 3 ways to end D1, two of them basically being starting a quick bandwagon (post)
• Soft-claiming a useless/not in the setup dwarf while there was no reason to do so
• "Mason-fishing"
• Thought the one with the most votes would get lynched at the end of the day, yet voted for MudPuppy, a case that was unlikely to gain traction. Therefore, the argument he made with MudPuppy can be applied to him. He wanted to not vote for any of the two persons that had the most votes so he could throw fingers around when one of them ended up being lynched.
  And it seems he kinda wanted to, with his post during N1

  LV, did the day end with no lynch because with KJ's vote it would have been 4-4 between HS and no lynch?

• Is on the dakky wagon (and was convinced he was scum) <---I actually wouldn't hold it against him, it's not my point, but it has been made
• Skimming? He didn't realized Flores suspected pika before he tried to "bait" her.

2') mitch

• Inconsistent with his posts at best
• Basically everything he did D2

Now, I like what I've seen so far from mitch in D3. He did try to make a case on pika and didn't try to go on an easy BW like D2. The answers he gave made sense. I don't think he explained his role-fishing (he just said he hasn't), but oh well. He soft-claimed a power-role, so I'd rather not lynch him yet since I he might be useful to town. And as Flores said, he is surely not the most dangerous scum out there, if he is one of them. I still feel like too many people are hinting at being a power role for the numbers of spots left in pika's list though. I believe the scumminess is strong in MP, so I'll go back to him Unvote Vote MudPuppy. Note that I'll switch back to whoever of the three has the most votes if a deadline draws near, but I'd rather lynch MP (2nd place is probably close to a tie between mitch and BJ)

I think MM is onto something when he suggests that the scum might be hiding amongs those scumarining, and from my suspects top 3 possible scumsters no one has been less active than him, and im not talking only about post count, but also about the quality of them. I am not sold on BuJ's innocence, but he or she's making an effort, i am enjoying what i am reading and i want to see more of it, it is kinda sad that the only lesson you could gain from this game is "scummarining FTW" i want to encourage participation, not to punish it, so for now, and even thought i'll keep an open mind, i will Unvote BuJ Vote Puppy honestly i prefer to put pressure on someone who has showed huge incongruencies on his position within a few posts and is voting for someone who has no heat atm without even putting a decent case *shrugs*

I don't think Mitch claiming right now is a good thing. I think he's town.

@Beast & Flores, let's say we lynch MP. Who would you suspect as his scumbuddies if he flips scum? And whom would you think are defo town?

On other note i haven't made the connections of if X is scum then Y must be town as some of you have made, except for the binomium MM - skoff, honestly i believe everyone could be guilty until proven innocent, so i wont make such deductions until i have the chance to observe the reactions and arguments around a vote, claim and or a lynch, the only alive ppl ATM in my white list are thor and MM, the rest is in a very large grey zone, with pika, mitch, BuJ and puppy in the darker side of the spectrum.

[MudPuppy]

Regarding hesitant/cautious yet willing to kill randomly case against me... I was just repeating Buj's phrase to indicate I was "hesitant" to vote before we had everyone in the game. It was frustrating to me that LoVo would basically set a 48 hour deadline as soon as a replacement was put in (or their character eliminated) as I felt the quorum was first met at that time... but we're all one big happy family now. I felt pretty confident that dakky was town & was trying to stress to him not to kill the confirmed townie since his push on Thor seemed misguided rather than sinister... I felt any other pick he made at that point was as good as any suggestion from the rest of us... so, random was fine in my eyes.

At this point, I still want to hear from HotShot as he's got my scumdar tingling (just a hunch as he's given little of substance to build a case on). Others I'd be willing to vote for include Flores, Samlen, & ZaBeast... mostly due to more towny vibes from the others rather than any really good case against any of them.

[lord voldemort]

Vote Count 3.2


madmitch (3): Pikanchion, Kamikaze Jawa, Thorthoth
MudPuppy (3): FloresDelMal, BuJaber, ZaBeast
BuJaber (1): Ragian
Ragian (1): Minister Masket


Not Voting (4): Hotshot53, madmitch, Samlen, MudPuppy,



With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
There is now a deadline in place. Approx 117 hours (just under 5 days) click here

[Thorthoth]

LoVo miscounted the votes...
HotShot still hasn't showed up...
I'm getting tired of this.

MInister is still voting for Ragian. Zabeast is voting for MP, and Flores just moved her vote to MudPuppy too.

& set a deadline too.

[lord voldemort]

LoVo miscounted the votes...
HotShot still hasn't showed up...
I'm getting tired of this.

MInister is still voting for Ragian. Zabeast is voting for MP, and Flores just moved her vote to MudPuppy too.

& set a deadline too.

You're taking typos way too personally.

Chill

[Ragian]

MM's "case" against me seems based on nothing but hurt feelings. I'm still annoyed that my two pieces of information are inadmissable given the nature of mason roles. However, MM, as a confirmed townie, we need you to do some grunt work rather than do what I did (when I thought I had caught you in a lie).

Humm...we have a deadline.

@Beast, while it's always good to lynch whomever you find the scummiest, it is also very important to get the lynch leaders' thoughts on possible scumbuddies and townies based on the possible outcomes of the lynch in order for town to use it onwards.

unvote

(I think Thor, MM, and mitch are all town.)

- BuJ is good at making my gut feeling turn in his favour. I don't know if he's pulling wool over my eyes, but he doesn't seem scummy to me right now.
- I'm not too sure about ZaBeast, but so far his contributions to the game earns him a pass. I don't know what it is, but something is rubbing me the wrong way about him.
- Flores has done some odd things, but I'm not too sure (s)he's scum.
- Pika doesn't seem scum to me.
- Samlen I have a hard time to put my finger on as he hasn't said too much.
- KJ is impossible to read with little to none input. I could be persuaded into voting for him.
- Mudpuppy seems to be the popular choice. I could defo vote for him. We would learn a lot from lynching him (if town, I'd presume ZaBeast and Flores are scum, maybe even BuJ too; and if scum, I'd exonerate the three and it should be smooth sailing from here).

Still, before placing my vote, I'd like to hear from Hotshot. This is the final call.

FP'ed by LoVo. Why do I need to chill?

[lord voldemort]

nah thor needs to chill....

[HotShot53]

Ok, I'll try to get more typed today before falling asleep...

2. Thorthoth - Confirmed town by the mod. Lucky for him, since he would have been lynched otherwise.
3. Pikanchion - started off day 1 with a lot of flavor talk, and saying he had some super important secret info, as long as no-one was playing 2 characters... of course no-one responded to him, he decided there wasn't anyone playing 2 characters, but never did give out that super important info that I ever saw because "things changed" somehow during day 1. Could actually know something important... or could have just been pretending he did in order to cover for some role fishing.
On day 2 voted for dakky early, but then left the wagon after he claimed. Said he would re-vote dakky but never did.
Overall his posts have seemed more towny, except the above things seem a bit scummy... so I'm neutral on him for now, I could argue his case either way.
4. Ragian - focused on MM most of day 1 and day 2. Soft defended dakky day 2, wanted to lynch MM instead. Day 3 is defending mitch as one of his 3 most town people. If mitch flips scum, that makes ragian either the most misguided towny out there, or scum trying to do his best to try to keep his team alive. I'm leaning scummy on him.
5. Samlen - day 1 didn't really do anything, as he wanted a no-lynch. Defended dakky day 2, says that only town would have defended dakky as scum would jump on the bandwagon for town credit... a bit backwards of an argument I think. Defending mitch day 3. Hasn't posted a ton overall. Like ragian, if mitch flips scum then he is high on the list of being scum. leaning scum
6. madmitch - was scared of lynching dakky for fear of dakky killing him (not unreasonable based on their history in past games) Did join the dakky bandwagon late. Joined dakky in being suspicious of thorthoth even after he was confirmed as town. Otherwise, hasn't been playing too bad for mitch, hasn't gone all flavor posting and seems to be scum hunting a bit, which is more of his town side. I'm neutral on him for now, but if ragian or samlen flipped scum he'd be more likely scum
7. MudPuppy - said he "wasn't going to defend dakky" but then proceeded to give reasons why dakky was more likely town than scum. Hasn't really pushed a case on anyone other than me, for inactivity, when he hasn't been the most active himself. pot calling the kettle black a bit. I'd like to see his reads on more people. Slightly scummy for the dakky "not defending defense" when he hasn't done much else
8. FloresDelMal - has made some pretty towny sounding posts, was early on the dakky wagon and pushed for his lynch. i'd lean town
9. ZaBeast - Jumped on the middle of the dakky wagon, jumped off for a while, and then jumped back on to hammer. His posts seem more towny. Leaning town
10. BuJaber - pretty early on the dakky wagon, and pressured for a dakky lynch. Seems mostly reasonable otherwise, so I'll lean town.
12. HotShot53 - me, town of course
15. nickthesticks Kamikaze Jawa - on the dakky wagon, no real reasons given other than it was a wagon and he wanted someone pressured enough to claim. Hasn't posted a lot, or given reads on people since he says he doesn't know us well enough to give meta reads. Might want to give him a prod, he hasn't posted in 5 days. Not enough to go on really, I'm neutral on him for now.
16. Minister Masket - claimed mason, no counterclaims, so he probably is what he claims to be. Town

I don't have any outstandingly strong scum reads, the highest on my list right now are ragian, samlen and mudpuppy, with mitch and Kamikaze Jawa next up. I wouldn't be surprised at a scum team remaining of ragian, samlen and mitch.

Of my stronger leads right now mudpuppy has the most votes, so since we have a deadline and need to get the day moving forward I will vote mudpuppy

[Kamikaze Jawa]

This is a terrible situation for town. We need KJ, Hotshot, MM, Samlen, Pika, MP to voice their opinions clearly as soon as possible.

I posted several times at the beginning of the day, and my vote was placed (and still is) on mitch. He's given me no indication to change my vote, all he's said is 'I'm a PR role, but I won't tell you which so you better not vote for me'. My lack of posting the last few days is because of IRL stuff. I've still been more active overall than some of the other people on that list, and I'll post more when I catch up on my coursework.

Plus KJ was overly defensive when he first joined and that still doesn't sit right with me.

I won't bother going back and quoting my posts from Day 1, but I've already explained several times that I am a brand new player and was too eager and got pounced on for making a mistake. Considering we had someone leave the game because of the super aggressiveness and bullying that went on, I don't see why my 'defensiveness' on day 1 is STILL somehow an issue for you. But then you were the one who tried to imply that my vote was the reason no one was lynched on Day 1 so I'm starting to wonder if this is more of an attempt to deflect suspicion given that several people are now already suspicious of you.

[Samlen]

Not my first choice but not on my town list and we need to get somewhere so I will pressure mud for a claim by putting him at L-2.
Vote Mudpuppy

[madmitch]

May as well follow everyone else, the days are dragging on so UNVOTE VOTE MUDPUPPY

[MudPuppy]

Looks like L-1... I'm Gandalf... but not going to divulge my power.

LoVo, I had Unvoted Hotshot earlier today:

[Samlen]

Unvote before anything else shady happens. Been up way too late to think of anything else yet

[Ragian]

Fucking Gandalf? Why not disclose your power(s)?

[Pikanchion]

Looks like L-1... I'm Gandalf... but not going to divulge my power.

If nobody counterclaims that then I think it may be about the right time for a mass "fluff claim" (character names only), from town's common perspective we are currently left with only two unknown players who are likely to be town Power Roles (the two of Bard, Balin, and Dwalin who are not played by Thorthoth), with two who are not (the players of Óin and Glóin), one player who is already known to be a Power Role (MudPuppy), two who are already known not to be (Thorthoth & Minister Masket), and five others who are either vanilla or scum (the players of Nori, Ori, Bifur, Bofur, and Bombur).

Scum's common perspective is merely this but with two or three of the five in the last category already known to them (for they know who they are), and possibly more depending on what information they may or may not gathered via night actions. Scum's pool of targets (who might be town-sided Power Roles) is therefore already down to only six to seven players plus MudPuppy, of which two of the unknown players are Power Roles. This gives them 100% chance of hitting a Power Role tonight (MudPuppy), and at least 28.6% of hitting a Power Role tomorrow night (if there's only two of them and town doesn't lynch) already, while town's chance of lynching scum tonight is 22.2-25% (with a 22.2% chance of pressuring one of the remaining Power Roles into claiming anyway. If the latter happens and we have another of our town's Power Roles revealed it will definitely be time to mass fluff claim, but it might be a decent idea now; the mafia still have a 100% available to them in MudPuppy the first night, while town's chances raise to 40% or 60% (depending on how many scum are left), and on later nights the chances between the two are not massively changed given we must assume that future bandwagons will produce claims that push scum's chances of hitting a Power Role constantly closer to 100%.

Fucking Gandalf? Why not disclose your power(s)?

The mystery of whether they are the Doctor or not can be the only thing which might prevent scum from targetting them tonight provided we do not mass fluff claim, if they do claim and they are the Doctor then they will surely be killed tonight, otherwise it is a lot less certain, by refusing to claim at all you potentially get the benefits of both possibilities... Only scum should want Gandalf's exact role mechanics revealed quite frankly so...

Unvote: madmitch
Vote: Ragian

[Pikanchion]

*"with two who are [town-sided but] not [Power Roles] (the players of Óin and Glóin)"

[Ragian]

I have absolutely no problem fluff claiming. I dislike withholding information regardless of tactics, but I reserve the right to the exact same thing.

[FloresDelMal]

Fucking Gandalf? Why not disclose your power(s)?

as long as no one counterclaim i don't see why he should do that Unvote Puppy

If nobody counterclaims that then I think it may be about the right time for a mass "fluff claim" (character names only)

Fucking Gandalf? Why not disclose your power(s)?

The mystery of whether they are the Doctor or not can be the only thing which might prevent scum from targetting them tonight provided we do not mass fluff claim, if they do claim and they are the Doctor then they will surely be killed tonight, otherwise it is a lot less certain, by refusing to claim at all you potentially get the benefits of both possibilities... Only scum should want Gandalf's exact role mechanics revealed quite frankly so...

Unvote: madmitch
Vote: Ragian

How can i not be weary of your rodent self when you keep trying to fish so badly, you started with trying to out the dwarfs and now mass claim on freaking D3? it really bugs me but when you are right, you are right, ragian's post did rub me on the wrong way, but he has been fishing a lot too, so i didnt realize the very scummy implications until you spelled it out and i agree Vote Rags

[Ragian]

Lol... This is going to end in a mass claim sooner or later.

The pieces, however, are falling into place.

[HotShot53]

Almost every game where someone half claims with a name only, it's because they are scum and don't want to mess up claiming a role. Yeah, gandalf is a major name... but if scum were given fake claims they could have been given a main name to fake claim. Half claiming only makes me more suspicious, as scum do it way more often than town does. So my vote will stay for now

Even if he is a doctor, as is the current assumption, claiming doesn't mean he's guaranteed to die, or that his death would be in vain. A watcher hasn't been killed yet, so scum would still have to be wary of being caught if they did try to kill him.

[Ragian]

Be careful, Hotshot, I've gotten three-ish votes for being that reasonable