The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[madmitch]

nice catch Pika , answer us Thort please

[MudPuppy]

Confirmed Town
Thor - Innocent child - confirmed by LoVo
MinisterMasket - Other half of mason pair (no counter claim)
MudPuppy - confirmed by Thor - gave him "Light of Earendil" on N1 which he used to confirm our final townie...
ZaBeast - confirmed by Thor

What?

-Thorthoth what are the exact mechanics of this item you gave to MudPuppy?

Sorry, that was poorly worded... let's change it to "MP gave Thor 'Light of Earendil' on N1 which Thor used to confirm our final townie..."

[Pikanchion]

Confirmed Town
Thor - Innocent child - confirmed by LoVo
MinisterMasket - Other half of mason pair (no counter claim)
MudPuppy - confirmed by Thor - gave him "Light of Earendil" on N1 which he used to confirm our final townie...
ZaBeast - confirmed by Thor

What?

-Thorthoth what are the exact mechanics of this item you gave to MudPuppy?

Sorry, that was poorly worded... let's change it to "MP gave Thor 'Light of Earendil' on N1 which Thor used to confirm our final townie..."

So to clarify, you gave an item to Thorthoth and they used that item on ZaBeast, which alerted you as to whether ZaBeast was Town or not?

While Thorthoth, I assume you received an item "from Gandalf" rather than "from MudPuppy" as it were, and so were using your earlier questioning to verify for certain that MudPuppy is indeed Gandalf? Also were you told that ZaBeast was Town too, or was the result only received by MudPuppy?

Pika: I'm waiting on his answer, but as I said, I feel the reasonning for his vote clashes with the pressure he was applying Ragian.

My voting for Ragian was not for the nature of the claim but for the perceived discrepancies between the claim and their actions, while my voting for BuJaber was almost* entirely for the claim itself.

*(the impending deadline making up the rest of my reasoning for it—we did not have time to begin another bandwagon, as it would be impossible to distinguish somebody not checking the thread from somebody deliberately withholding until the deadline)

[MudPuppy]

Sorry, that was poorly worded... let's change it to "MP gave Thor 'Light of Earendil' on N1 which Thor used to confirm our final townie..."

So to clarify, you gave an item to Thorthoth and they used that item on ZaBeast, which alerted you as to whether ZaBeast was Town or not?

While Thorthoth, I assume you received an item "from Gandalf" rather than "from MudPuppy" as it were, and so were using your earlier questioning to verify for certain that MudPuppy is indeed Gandalf? Also were you told that ZaBeast was Town too, or was the result only received by MudPuppy?

Thor received the result, which I wasn't aware of until he announced it today:

ZaBeast: Just shut up, If I didn't KNOW that you were town I would totally think you're scum.

The Light of Earendil is a simple one shot investigation.

We have a circle jerk of confirmations between LoVo confirming Thor, my detailed familiarity of Earendil validating my claim to Thor, and Thor's investigation using my gift confirming ZaBeast... then we have Masket as well. That's the majority of town knowing for sure that each other are town. The other 3 or so town need to roll with it and follow our vote lead so we remain unified.

There is no evidence that, other than the already used vengeful role, mafia can kill more than one at a time. If that holds true, we have two chances to pick scum before we get down to a 3v3 scenario with two mislynches & two night kills. I'm pretty confident that one of our first two picks will end up being scum, however.

If the non-confirmed townies keep following the collective lead of the four confirmed townies (or however many of them are left as we progress), we should have an excellent chance as you know they're taking their best guess on scum rather than steering the vote away from scum.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

Thanks for explaining, I was extremely confused about the sudden influx of 'confirmed town'. Was starting to think I was going crazy and missing pages of the thread

I think MP is right about our best chance being to follow the confirmed townies votes. I haven't gotten a particularly scummy vibe from Sam other than he seems to stay just under the radar quite a bit, but since my judgement was completely wrong about Rag and BuJ I don't really trust my opinion so this is admittedly a pure bandwagon vote Samlen. I'll try to re-read everything tomorrow to form a better judgement.

[Pikanchion]

Perhaps it would be wise to have everybody not on the confirmed list to either lore or full claim now?

[HotShot53]

Samlen was already on my leaning scummy list from day 3, and hasn't done anything to change it since then, so he would be high on my list also. He already has 4 votes and is L-2 now though, so I will wait for his claim before voting him to avoid a speed lynch.

[ZaBeast]

And here I thought Thor was leaning town on me because I tried to divert the lynch of a jailor. A bit disapointed he needed the mod to lay it out for him now

Perhaps it would be wise to have everybody not on the confirmed list to either lore or full claim now?

What do you guys/gals think? I'd say a claim from at least HS and Sam would be nice to have tbh. And if it makes scum NK them, I won't be very sad.

tbh, my main reason for giving HS a pass is this.

stuff I already said at the beginning of the day

Regarding the kill-less N1, I think there are 3 2 options
1- Scum targeted MM and the kill failed because he was jailed by Rag
2- An eventual doctor and scum chose the same target
3- Scum targeted the role left by IP, and LoVo conveniently decided he was commuting
What can we possibly deduce from these cases? (spoiler: not much)
1- Scum wanted to throw shade at the people voting MM, and the only scum in there was likely dakky (and it makes sense with his vengeful power that scum wouldn't mind that much throwing shade at him). As a reminder, the people that voted MM at the peak of the wagon (VC 1.6): Minister Masket (6): ZaBeast, Ragian, BuJaber, Thorthoth, Hotshot53, dakky21 (and Flores forgotten by the mod)
The fact BuJ and Ragian are dead and were town and that thor is a mod-confirmed townie makes this option pretty plausible IMO.
2,3- nothing at all

And I'd say we have a 50/50 chance of MM being the scum's target (provided there's no busser)

HS basically used the same argument as flores for voting BuJ btw (though Flores had voted BuJ earlier for other reasons). But these two votes look like people going at the easier bandwagon to build to me. Either lynch-eager townies or scum, not sure about that.

Voting no lynch on day 3, plus asking for info that only helps scum makes me unvote, vote BuJaber

I still think MP is a bit scummy for not full claiming, but I was the only vote left there so that wasn't going anywhere.

I am not comfortable with the case on KJ, i think he should mend his scummarining ways, but the same could be said about hotshot, MM and others, so i could like to actually see him participate more and build cases before i can make my mind about where to put him on the scale of greys

and because i believe puppy's flavour claim and BuJ made himself no favour by asking the jailor or roleblocker who his target will be and then voting no lynch in D3, I'll just go ahead and Vote BuJ once again

A jailkeeper claim isn't guaranteed to be town, as a scum rolebloker could masqueraded as a jailkeeper without stretching their role too far. However, based on Ragian's reaction with thinking he caught MM lying, I am leaning town on him for now. I'm not sure a scum roleblocker would have been that obvious he was a roleblocker on a gambit.

THIS is one reason I willing to not vote for H.S. at the moment, My sights are set on K.J. because Rags thought something was off but I am willing to go with towns decision

My opinion on Ragian's not full claiming is the same as on Mudpuppy not full claiming... it's usually a scum move to not full claim when at L-2, and half claims only make me more suspicious whatever the name claim is. I was also suspicious of Ragian for his soft defense of dakky on day 2. So if nothing changes I will hammer ragian before the deadline.

He posted this between the time I said he was a jailor and Rag claim. He didn't hammer though. I wonder if he was hoping a misguided townie would.

Also, other weak arguments for both sides from D3:

possible slip from sam--and his answer

His team, however, should've noticed fairly quickly the hole dakky was digging himself into and probably at least 2 of his scummates would've jumped on the chance to grab easy town cred.

btw, what makes you so sure there's 4 scums (or more)? Skoff said scums in LoVo's games usually all had a power role, so I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 3, all with powers, given how town doesn't seem to have that many either

Just basic assumption from numbers. Besides, even if each of the roles we've seen so far have all been low-mid range power, that's normal for a mafia game with a decent amount of vanilla townies, and we haven't had an indicator that there are a decent amount of said vanilla townies. If, say, half of the town had some sort of power within the range of mason to even-night commuting, then the mafia would probably need 4 memebers with powers to have a fighting chance. Besides, a 3-man mafia where one of their powers is to get lynched? The other two would have to be quite powerful to make up for the low numbers and dakky's power being activated upon being lynched.

Baseless speculation on HS being dakky's scum buddy due to him looking mad after thor was mod-confirmed town

Sam saying I have a good argument on mitch, but actually never voting him

I was looking back at mitch's posts and I found this:

Wow what a lucky night for us especially Thort, Dakky asking about actions does sound scummy but I think he might be on to something. Do we start all over with new suspects or should we be like Rags and stick to our D1 favorites and push them harder? I was suspicious of Thort until he was proven town and then Ifollowed Skoffin lead on Hot Shot but basically the vote was split and time ran out so there was not much pressure put on the suspects we had,right now I am thinking either MM or HS ,they seemed to be the popular ones at the moment

Am I wrong in thinking this post is particularly fishy?
- especially Thort --->why did he think thor was lucky to have gotten through the night? Did he have reason to believe he was supposed to be night killed? I mean, I wouldn't think thor was the most likely NK target, since he didn't seemed very helpful to town on D1, even as a confirmed townie.
- but I think [dakky] might be on to something-->pushing for a role claim as well.
With this in mind, I will unvote vote mitch

That's actually the most convincing argument I've seen all day. At least better than the one to lynch dakky. I think i'll wait for a response from mitch but I doubt it'll change my mind.

Also, what's up with that? Saying it's the best argument you've seen all day, but not acting up on it. And mitch never explained the role fishing part either... hmmm you're next in line if mitch flips scum.

[MudPuppy]

Perhaps it would be wise to have everybody not on the confirmed list to either lore or full claim now?

What do you guys/gals think? I'd say a claim from at least HS and Sam would be nice to have tbh. And if it makes scum NK them, I won't be very sad.

I'm not sure it will help me decide who is scum as it seems we both have fake claims (Dori for dakky) and somewhat unconventional roles from mod (Beorn for Ragian - wouldn't have guessed this to be a likely role option for the Hobbit). If someone has a role that they somehow think can prove them to be town, then go ahead and argue your case... otherwise, I'm indifferent to a mass claim of all unconfirmed players. Though, I would like to hear claims from HS, Sam (especially since he's at L-2, if you include KJ's attempt at a vote where he forgot to bold/green the word 'vote') & KJ too.

Please do NOT lynch Sam just yet. I'd like to both hear from MinisterMasket and hash this out a bit more before we finally decide on our D4 lynch.

[madmitch]

I agree don't want to rush the lynch, we have not heard from everyone,We have four confirmed town out of ten players leaving 5 not known ,how many scum is left?

[Minister Masket]

So, Minister & ZaBeast, you guys game? HotShot is my first choice based on scumarining, starting to shift vote from KJ to Buj, & a weak argument on Buj... as well as FOS'ing Gandalf (not an OMGUS vote... if anything, he's OMGUSing me since I've been suspicious of him since D1).

Based on the list you just posted, Beast, I'd say we're pretty in line with scum choices. Sam's a bit further down my list but your 2-4 are my 1-3 in a different order. Since Thor just FP'd me to join you, then I'll hop on the wagon too:

Out of everyone I'd have to go with Hotshot. Based off of Skoffin's earliest suspicions and general inactivity.
That being said I need to go back and re-read the thread tomorrow as I've barely been home at all this weekend.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

Sam (especially since he's at L-2, if you include KJ's attempt at a vote where he forgot to bold/green the word 'vote')

Tired and headachey when I posted and didn't realise, my bad. Vote Samlen

[Samlen]

Wow it must be nice having actions that give you information. I'm Bard. I haven't used my action yet, cause I like being conservative about shooting people, especially when I can only do so twice. To confirm, yes I am a 2-shot vigilante. Idk about you guys but we're getting to the point where we need claims from as many of the non-confirmed as possible, especially since we apparently have 2 confirmed and multiple strong name claims.

[MudPuppy]

Unvote while we discuss more. Bard would be nice if true.

[ZaBeast]

Two other things I think could be useful to know are
1- whether the role mitch says he has is investigative, and if so, the results he has
2- how pika came up with his list of townies (this one)
Unvote for now

[lord voldemort]

Vote Count 4.1


Samlen (2): Thorthoth, Kamikaze Jawa


Not Voting (10): Samlen, FloresDelMal, Hotshot53, madmitch, Minister Masket, Pikanchion, MudPuppy, ZaBeast


With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

There is currently no deadline in place[/quote]

[madmitch]

Sorry my role is not investigating

[MudPuppy]

Thanks for explaining, I was extremely confused about the sudden influx of 'confirmed town'. Was starting to think I was going crazy and missing pages of the thread

Well, you should have been less confused than anyone since you also were sent an item. I'm curious why you haven't mentioned it. Disclosing it would not have been alignment indicative but not saying anything after the talk about Earendil seems a bit scummy to me. Why keep it a secret?

Would you please reveal what you received, who you used it on, and your rationale for doing so?

Flores hasn't said a word yet today... not sure if her MIL is still in town.

[Pikanchion]

Let's get a claim from somebody else now I guess? -Where is everybody? =P

Vote: HotShot53

[ZaBeast]

2- how pika came up with his list of townies (this one)

You didn't answer yet. And you've been wrong with at least one role, so I want to know where that list comes from.

Also @mitch IF you are a doc AND you protected either pika, HS, Flores, Sam or KJ on night 1, I think a claim would be interesting. If your role includes getting notified when you successfully protect someone (as was Sam's on ME), and you were, even better.

I need to read back on stuff before I make up my mind, but I agree HS is a good lynch candidate.

[Pikanchion]

I can't say without fully claiming.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

Thanks for explaining, I was extremely confused about the sudden influx of 'confirmed town'. Was starting to think I was going crazy and missing pages of the thread

Well, you should have been less confused than anyone since you also were sent an item. I'm curious why you haven't mentioned it. Disclosing it would not have been alignment indicative but not saying anything after the talk about Earendil seems a bit scummy to me. Why keep it a secret?

Because I'm still learning the game and it didn't occur to me that the elven rope I got 3 weeks ago was connected to Thor confirming ZaBeast I'm assuming you bringing it up means you're the one who sent it to me.

I haven't used it yet, which is why I haven't brought it up myself. I had planned to use it last night against either Rag or BuJ but BuJ was lynched and I thought that Rags claim might be true, so using it on him would stop him from jailing someone. So I decided to hold it til tonight after we had more information.

[madmitch]

WTF ??? TALKING ABOUT EXCUSES , had a scum vibe about you now I am shacking like an earth quake. VOTE KJ

[Samlen]

Discussion sure died down quickly. I'd like as many claims as we can get rn cause we got a few practically confirmed townies so it'll be a lot easier to catch one of them slipping. Since there's no pressure on anyone else, I'll vote hotshot and hope he actually posts by the time he gets to L-2

[Kamikaze Jawa]

WTF ??? TALKING ABOUT EXCUSES , had a scum vibe about you now I am shacking like an earth quake. VOTE KJ

Given your scum vibe til now has been exclusively 'KJ voted for me after I was majorly scummy and defending dakky and attacking Thor' I'm still not convinced that you yourself aren't scum trying to throw shade. You've done nothing but hop on bandwagon after bandwagon and you're hoping to start another one today with me. I didn't realise MP gave out two items, and that the sudden influx of confirmed town was related to the elven rope. If my noob naivety gets my lynched, then oh well.