Bitcoin is not suited to replace fiat
To the dismay of the crypto crowd, bitcoin is both unlikely and unsuited to succeed fiat as the common medium of exchange, for two important reasons. The first is central banks don’t own any and have no interest in adopting any form of crypto other than ones whose ledgers they control. We know they are racing to get central bank digital currencies up and running, partly to head off private sector alternatives. But these proposed CBDCs are just another form of fiat and will fail as surely as revolutionary France’s mandats territoriaux did following public rejection of the inflated and hated assignats.
However, central banks and government treasury departments do own gold — almost certainly less than the 35,171.3 tonnes reported by the World Gold Council, when leases, loans and double-counting are allowed for. But the majority at least own some gold. Even though it is likely to be a last resort, turning their fiat currencies into gold substitutes is a central bank’s only option to avoid a complete currency collapse, and with it the collapse of all state spending.
The second reason BITCOIN and similar alternatives are unsuitable is one identified by Ludwig von Mises in a different context — the socialist calculation debate. Mises pointed out that for an economy to function it required unfettered market prices in order for entrepreneurs and businesses to be able to calculate returns on business investment. The other side of prices is their measurement in money terms. When state-issued currencies were functioning as gold substitutes — which was the situation for capitalistic economies at the time of the debate — their purchasing power was broadly stable over a typical investment cycle, allowing businesses and entrepreneurs to anticipate returns on a proposed investment. If an inflexible, limited-issue cryptocurrency like bitcoin became the circulation medium to replace fiat, no investment for a multi-year project could possibly be contemplated because of the effect on future prices. Measured in scarce bitcoin and with a firm cap on its total issue, prices for finished products at the end of the investment would end up being significantly lower than their production costs, thereby ruling out the project itself.
That won’t stop cryptocurrencies like bitcoin continuing to soar while increasing numbers of the investing public see them as must-have wealth protection at a time of rapidly increasing fiat debasement. But that is a DIFFERENT FUNCTION from operating as a practical means of exchange.
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold ... and-silver