Soaps Role Madness 2! Town wins!

[Devante]

Which way you leaning EW?

[kongming3]

Scum are getting anxious...

It's fine if they won't cooperate, it's not entirely necessary for scum to play along at this point. I will also say I am likely to be the only protector role in play and I'm the only one who has claimed as such, which I think is a strong point in my favour of being town (because I doubt there would be 0 protector type roles in a role madness game with 10 players and multiple killing factions). That said, assuming I'm town also isn't necessary for this to work. We have two game mechanic confirmed players (Loose, and soon to be EW) and one investigation cleared player (Dev, who we only need to start to suspect after other possibilities are exhausted. For reference, evil roles that would let him seem town are Consigliere Fixer Godfather Con man and Traitor.)

7 players alive, 3 which we can temporarily assume are guaranteed town, and multiple useful claimed roles amongst the remaining 4.

We can 100% solve this for sure now if Max is town and picked one of the right targets and won't refuse to cooperate again, but it's fine if not. Three mafia and a serial killer in a game with ten people is way too much, so I think we can reasonably assume 2 mafia and not worry about some niche ultimate worst case scenarios. If we kill all 4 of the people in doubt, town either wins on the spot or dev must have fooled investigation and Loose and EW vote him out and we still win. We have a lynch today, a potential prosecutor kill, Loose's kill, and maybe Charle's diverted kill.

We lynch one of me/Ragian/Max. I personally don't think it should be me because I'm the only one claiming a protector role and I would highly doubt a 10 player game with two killing factions wouldn't have a protector role, but I leave that decision up to EW and Loose. Ew then kills one of the remainder of those three at trial. Loose then targets Charle with his kill power. If Charle is town, the game is already 100% won because he diverts the kill to the target he chooses, the last person standing among that initial trio, and they die instead. Then with him being confirmed town, if the game isn't already over the now three game confirmed town in Charle EW and Loose vote out Dev as the only possible remaining scum. I personally think it's more likely Charle lied and is scum, in which case he just gets killed by Loose's power.

The worst case scenario is that Charle is scum and both the first two killed of the trio of me/max/ragian are town. In that case, the final person remaining of those three or dev could both theoretically be the last scum. We will still have three townsfolk at that point, two being hard cleared (Loose and EW.)

If Ragian or Dev wants to try to claim a protector role (to show/argue that I'm not the only protector and still a likely scum suspect), now would be the time. I will also say if Max is town and selected anyone other than EW or Loose we quite literally win on the spot 100%, and he should speak up because you still win as town even if you die.

Otherwise I'm fine with lynching any of me/ragian/max. EW will kill a different one at trial tonight, and then Charle targets and kills the last one tonight or dies to Loose's Jack kill if he is scum. Ideally we save the least scummy feeling one for last, which I'd argue is me based on the need for someone to be a protector role in this game, but I am legitimately fine with dying earlier if needed.

[kongming3]

And if it wasn't clear Dev, I was looking for any sort of soft claim from you to see if you'd claim anything protector related or if I remain the only protector role.

@Loose, you shouldn't worry about using your kill power on Charle or me pulling some scum mumbo-jumbo on you because you'll either be killing a scum or clearing a townsfolk and 100% winning us the game on the spot so it wouldn't be a waste.
@Max, I will once again say that in the event you are town and selected anyone alive other than EW or Loose, we guaranteed win the game if you're so kind to share with us.

[Extreme Ways]

I lean Kong town for sure.

I lean lynch Max, policy if nothing else but like Kong says - even if not scum it's not actively hurting town.

One note for Kong - my prosecution is a day action. I need to tell DDS that I want to prosecute <player> before the day ends.

[Ragian]

You want to lynch max on policy but not Kong. You're really weirding me out in this game, EW.

@Kong, I'll ask again, why do you want me to claim? Are you going to want me to claim a protective role? Is that what I should take from your long post? In the latest post of yours, Max and Loose were addressed directly, but my direct question to you wasn't answered directly.

Regarding Kong's lynch of three people suggestion, I only know that I'm town, so if we were to lynch between us three, I'd choose Kong ashhe is the only confirmed liar in the mix. I would, however, like to know who Max targeted last night.

[Extreme Ways]

I'm not that fond of LAL as a policy as DDS is, as you may have noticed by me lying multiple times last time. I lied about tracking Loose, I lied multple times about the extent of my role, I hid information about the masonic axe and sword, I lied about Dev being mason when I was fully aware it was Pix...

That's why I'm not speedlynching Kong, fakeclaiming as town has its benefits. I still dont think he should endgame, but he's well aware of that. He posted a plan which I don't see any faults with to weed out the nonconfirmeds, and we fully agree on a Max lynch almost fully being a net positive regardless of flip.

[Ragian]

Well, scum lie. It's not just the lie, which should be obvious by now. Also, speedlynching is hardly the case. Nothing happens speedily in this game. I was fully committed to start out by apologising for my absence during this weekend only to find that only you had posted.

So, why is lynching Max a good idea? Explain it to me like you would to a toddler.

[Extreme Ways]

Well, scum lie. It's not just the lie, which should be obvious by now. Also, speedlynching is hardly the case. Nothing happens speedily in this game. I was fully committed to start out by apologising for my absence during this weekend only to find that only you had posted.

So, why is lynching Max a good idea? Explain it to me like you would to a toddler.

Hi little Ragi! Come, put down the lego and come sit with dada.

When the big, good, town decides that max isn't allowed to play with us anymore, two things can happen:
1) Max was a baddie!
This is always good for us, we dont want to play with baddies!

2) Max was a good, well behaved kid.
This does not appear great for us, because we do want to play with behaved kids. But wait! Max was playing with his toy that his role gave him, a crystal ball! It appears he left it when we pushed him out, but the golden ball lets us know that the person Max last played with (=targeted in the night) is a goodie or a baddie.

In short, Max's dismissal confirms another townie.

We have 3 confirmed fmpov:
1) the Jack, Loose
2) The person the Jack has a greencheck on, Dev. (unless Dev has immunity from investigations)
3) Me! I will confirm myself to all of you tonight by trialing Charle. This will reveal me to be the prosecutor.

If Max played with someone else on this list, this means that we have 4 confirmed town after his death. There's currently 7 alive, after he dies theres 6 alive. After my trial you can either vote for Charle to live or to die - I strongly advocate to kill regardless of what they say because we simply kill everyone who is not confirmed, which works even if Dev is scum.

We enter the night on 6. We kill Charle, we start the day on 5 with these people alive:
EW
Dev
Loose
^ all cleared
Kong
Rag

and maybe another clear, hopefully another clear, if Max targeted someone.

This gives us room to kill both you and Kong, only losing to godfather or smth similar Dev if Max targeted one me, Dev or Loose.

If Max targeted you, we have 4 clears on 5 people. Golden Idol (Max's toy) reveals role, not alignment. This gives us time to kill both Kong and Dev if he targeted you and you are town.

I think this game is pretty much solved if we kill Max at an ideal time.

[Extreme Ways]

and I'm leaning Kong town because he wouldnt write this out as scum I think

[Loose Canon]

I'm uneasy about this but I am considering switching my vote to max.

Can anyone see flaws in what Ew is saying on top of what Kong has said?

[Loose Canon]

And actually Ew please consider flaws too especially if you are wrong in leaning Kong as town, because that is where I'm still leaning Kong as scum.

[kongming3]

I'm going to say once more that if Max is town and targeted someone other than EW or Loose, town can mathematically win 100% of the time. Even if he picked Dev, town will still win 100% of the time and I can promise you don't need to assume I'm town and can kill me off to do so, we just need to play properly. There will be no leaps of logic nor assumptions needed to be made about towniness of anyone not hard confirmed including me.

With all that said, I think there is a big flaw in EW's variation on what I wrote up. If Charle is scum, then it seems like a decent enough position to be in. Five people left, two hard confirmed town, Dev in a sort of limbo, and two semi suspicious remaining common folk. It's only a guaranteed win though if Max cleared one of the three who aren't EW or Loose, because then we just lynch one of the remaining two and Jack kill the other as needed. If Max didn't clear anyone, then even if he finds someone guilty it's actually still effectively a 50/50 for the last scum if it's a scum pair. We could still just lynch Jack kill the two who weren't investigated, but if Dev was investigation immune he wins on the spot (he night kills as well). We can't wait to lynch or use Jack powers either because scum will just kill confirmed town first. We wouldn't actually have a way to guarantee anything, and it would basically come down to guessing who the last scum is with no way to verify for sure. There being a scum pair remaining in Dev and Rag or me and one of them (from your perspective) is a big concern.

Compare this to killing Rag/me at trial and Loose killing Charle. If Charle is town, he redirects the Loose kill onto whoever wasn't picked for trial. We have three confirmed townies and Dev is by necessity the last scum if the game hasn't already ended. If Charle is scum, Charle just dies. Either way, we guarantee there can't be a scum pair remaining.

Scenarios for Max oracle results go as followed -

Dev is town: We continue on the maximize killing route including using Jack kill and trial kill. Three unconfirmed die (including lynch kill) if Charle is scum, all four if he's town. It's a guaranteed lynch on the last scum person remaining if the game is still going at that point because there is now no doubt on dev.

Devi is scum: We maximize killing again, killing Dev instead at trial as well as using Jack kill. We always try to kill charle with Jack because we win the game if he's town and kill scum if not. In Charle is town scenario he kills one of me/ragian, and we lynch the other the following day. If Charle is scum, he just dies to Jack and we win that night.

If Ragian/Me is town: We kill the non confirmed one at trial, and Charle redirects Jack kill to Dev instead. If Charle was scum, we still go into the next day with three confirmed townies at least one scum dead and by necessity we know Dev must be scum and lynch him.

If Ragian/Me is scum: We kill whoever shows up as a scum role at trial and use Jack kill on Charle. Once again, there is no downside to doing so, if Charle was scum Jack kill kills scum and we win. If Charle is town, he targets whoever of me/ragian wasn't trial killed and we either win or kill Dev the next day with three confirmed townies in Loose, EW, and Charle.

If Charle is town: We always win when Charle is town for reasons described above, can just trial kill and Jack kill me/rag and then lynch dev as needed the next day.

If Charle is scum: Typing this up, I think this is the only one where a tiny bit of trust is needed to guarantee a win. We trial kill Charle and go into the next day with four town one scum, but only two are hard confirmed and all of Rag, me, and Dev are potential suspects. We lynch one and scum has to kill one of Loose/EW that night to make it a 50/50 for the final lynch. Otherwise if they kill the other suspect or get blocked we lynch them/lynch one and use saved Jack kill to kill the other and win with one town alive and all scum dead. We can actually guarantee this because I am town's protector role and Loose will have a one shot protection on the other of him/EW. All that needs to happen for that is for me to not be the first lynched of Rag/me/dev. If I lied and I'm scum and one of EW or Loose magically dies through double protection, you still get to guaranteed lynch me the next day as the last scum and town wins. If I told the truth and scum isn't able to kill anyone, you still get to kill me for your peace of mind either with lynch kill or jack kill and town wins as well.

If max was scum and the whole oracle thing is fake and this was all pointless to write up: Funnily enough, town is still guaranteed to win. We do the whole trial kill me/ragian, and use Jack kill on Charle. With one scum dead in Max we now also win for sure with a scum charle dead, and still win if charle is town and therefore alive with him redirecting to other ragian/me and a guaranteed lynch on Dev as needed the next day.

Pretty much the only scenario I'm seeing where there is uncertainty involved for town is when Max is town but targeted EW/Loose, as well as Charle being scum. From my perspective, I'll then know scum has to be the last remaining alive of Dev/Rag but that won't be guaranteed to town at large.

[kongming3]

And if anyone needs me to explain any of the scenarios listed, for good confused towny reasons or scum making an effort to do something, I can elaborate in greater detail why it works and why you as a townsfolk should feel confident in playing your role without needing to doubt my alignment or even care about my alignment at all (because these are independent of any assumptions about my towniness.)

[Ragian]

LOL EW. I appreciated that very much

Now, has Kong claimed his actual role? Other than he says that he's a protective role?

@Loose, I don't know how to consider all possibilities, but I do know that if EW and Kong are scum together, the obvious loophole is that they won't do what they let on is the plan, and they'll claim to be blocked or something. Or if either is scum with Max, they're sacrificing Max to gain town cred.

I'd like to reiterate that I have no issues following a well thought out plan, but I'll also say that we're in absolutely no rush at this point.

---

@Max, tell us what you did last night. You might end up in a noose if you don't.

@Dev and @Charle, what do you think?

[Extreme Ways]

Once Max claims his target on someone other than us, I will tell DDS that I wish to prosecute Kong or Rag.

Fwiw I think it's Charle +1.

[kongming3]

@Ragian, that's a good point. I personally don't have the power to change town's actions so I couldn't go against the plan even if I wanted to, but something weird happening with EW and confusion ensuing is a concern. I would have thought he can't be blocked because he decides during the day and then the trial begins at the start of the night, but perhaps @DDS can clarify if prosecutor is blockable retroactively?

I also realized that EW has to decide who to prosecute before we get access to Max's potential information. The choice for that only really matters in the Max is truly oracle and discovers Charle is scum scenario. I believe phantom should work on trial kill as well (it triggers on attempts at being killed and prosecutor kills specifically), so I think we can just always trial kill Charle instead of Jack killing him and Jack kill one of me/ragian instead (nothing fundamentally changes by doing it this way other than protecting us against a potential edge case.) Charle if he is town just targets whoever Loose isn't going to be Jack killing, so Loose should probably just clarify who he'll be targeting sometime before night? He just needs to never kill anyone in the Charle is oracle scum scenario. And Loose, if you still have your doubts about me it should be fine if you want me to be your Jack kill for most scenarios of how the night works out.

[kongming3]

Also yes, if I was to guess at this point I'd think Charle is most likely to be one of the scum.

[Charle]

LOL EW. I appreciated that very much

Now, has Kong claimed his actual role? Other than he says that he's a protective role?

@Loose, I don't know how to consider all possibilities, but I do know that if EW and Kong are scum together, the obvious loophole is that they won't do what they let on is the plan, and they'll claim to be blocked or something. Or if either is scum with Max, they're sacrificing Max to gain town cred.

I'd like to reiterate that I have no issues following a well thought out plan, but I'll also say that we're in absolutely no rush at this point.

---

@Max, tell us what you did last night. You might end up in a noose if you don't.

@Dev and @Charle, what do you think?

I agree Ragian, we are in no rush, I have a very busy day today and will read through the above scenarios a bit later and comment. But to read quickly between the lines, if it is for town's benefit to kill me, then I am absolutely happy with that. For now, I have to run to a series of meetings today.

Still think that Kong is back paddeling working a way out here, though.

[Ragian]

@Kong, could you claim, please?

[Extreme Ways]

Given that we are working on the assumption that other town prs dont matter, I agree with Rag.

[kongming3]

Sure, that's fine. I am the guardian, which means I have the privilege of dying in place of whoever I protect, making me a one-time use human meat shield. The primary reason I bluffed a different role, other than just to limit information to scum for what they have to play around, was because literally all I can do for town is die for them (beyond theorizing and planning on behalf of town). It's the same rationale I explained earlier, if my role is to sacrifice myself for the more important townies and give them the best shot of winning, it's even easier to guarantee fulfilling that role if I can just get scum to target me to begin with by pretending to be more important. That was only a partial success obviously, but given the worst case scenario is hard clearing a townsfolk I'm still rather happy with how this turned out.

[Loose Canon]

ok still dislike hitching the game to kong and/or ew but guess it makes more sense than not to given they are more clever players than I am whatever their allegiance turns out to be.

Not quite ready to fully switch back onto Max

But for now unvote Kong

[Extreme Ways]

Ah, I thought you were a nurse. Still makes sense though

[DirtyDishSoap]

I'm imposing a deadline to get things going.

Deadline set Monday! Nov18th! 10pm -5UTC

[Ragian]

I'm still sceptical. Gotta say. If your reason for lying was to keep information from scum, why volunteer a claim as the first person after one guy has asked for a mass claim?

Fp'ed by the mod

What the f*ck? The deadline is now?