D5 of The Reid technique Mafia Game

[Ragian]

That happened quickly. I like some of it. I dislike some of it. What do you say, Devante? We all know that a) I'm for lynching D1 and b) that I don't want more claims D1.

[Devante]

That happened quickly. I like some of it. I dislike some of it. What do you say, Devante? We all know that a) I'm for lynching D1 and b) that I don't want more claims D1.

Couple things. This seems like rabbit hole LC again. This:

Yes I may well be too Halrob, but my read on Devante whether correct or not is primarily based on the below - and the interactions between Sonic and Devante.

IF my read is correct though it follows to me that Dev should be lynched (D1 - if still possible)

FYI : An AI analyse of the REID TECHNIQUE MAFIA GAME set-up (forbidden to do as player while alive!) was done before the start to check for unbalances / better suggestions. This was the final verdict before the game went live :

"The Reid technique Mafia Game" is a thematically rich and mechanically balanced 11-player custom setup.
It rewards smart reads, communication, and adaptive play.

Balance Summary
Faction Members Notes
Town (?) ?
Mafia (?) Compact but synergistic toolkit
? (?) Chaos agent preventing hard reads

? (?)
? ("Their leader hides behind odd lies.")
? ("Only detained by ?'s bars of iron grace or touched by ? ? hands, his hunger stills,- but ? undone, and ? worn, he feasts — and always ?.")

→ Win chance estimate:

Town ~48–52%

Mafia ~35–40%

? ~10–15% (?)

Pretty even for skilled players, and very dynamic with multiple overlapping night interactions. High interaction; every role matters; no faction has dominance.
Overall: Highly interactive, balanced within ±5% of neutral expectation.

Late Game Predictions (D5+):

If ? survives, likely 1v1v1 endgame.
If ? dies early, ? vs ? ends 2v3 or 2v2; still very tense.

? victory depend strongly on ? and careful ?.

Balance Verdict

Strengths

Deep interplay between the power roles — no “useless” powers.

? mechanic introduces strategic deception, not RNG chaos.

Multiple soft counters prevent any single role from dominating.

3 factions keep game tempo fast and dynamic.

Potential Weak Spots

If ? chain-protects ? repeatedly, ? can snowball into confusion; ? should be encouraged to intervene and counter.

If ? dies very early, late-game may lean slightly ?-favored.

If ? loses ?-role early, investigative pressure rises sharply.

Apparently Sonics AI outline is the basis for the vote doesn't make sense to me and LC's explanation of it is even more confusing so aside from it's me on the block if this was another player I'd still just be confused at this point and not sure where the hell he's going with this.

However with that said. If we have to lynch someone then might as well be me. From towns perspective we lose a townie but one that's now on the spotlight and likely would be killed tonight anyways so that might save another townie PR from being lynched accidently during D1 or at least gives a target for scum at night given that I am town and have a PR. Not completely convinced on Kingm's sort of claim but not going to put a vote there either right now.

Would suggest looking at the stream of votes on me again as there's some individuals here that just keep hopping on wagons very quickly and not just myself but with several players now. A look back on the stream of votes D2 and timing would be very warranted and for any townie investigative roles a good place to start. That's my response Rag

[SoN!c]

Official vote count:


Devante: (4) Loose Canon, Halrob, Hjelp, Darin



30 hours left..


With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[Loose Canon]

Rag, if after pondering more dislike holds sway for you will you at least then say why?

Dev, the last part of what you say re looking at voting patterns of those voting for you is I think irrelevant. In this case at this point in the game town and mafia alike increase the chances of each of their factions winning by a share of 10% + IF they can eliminate 3rd party chaos agent.

[Devante]

Rag, if after pondering more dislike holds sway for you will you at least then say why?

Dev, the last part of what you say re looking at voting patterns of those voting for you is I think irrelevant. In this case at this point in the game town and mafia alike increase the chances of each of their factions winning by a share of 10% + IF they can eliminate 3rd party chaos agent.

I find it pretty dumb to say it is irrelevant as that's one of the things town has to go on when trying to find scum. Secondly you're on this chaos agent thing which post a link or description of it as I can't find it on the mafiafrum for roles. Maybe that will help make sense of it. I read it as a roleblocking type role givin the preventing hard reads

[Loose Canon]

Blue, balance faction summary, 5th line.

[Devante]

Blue, balance faction summary, 5th line.

I see that i'm asking what kind of role would chaos agent be as the quote is; "? (?) Chaos agent preventing hard reads", that tells me 3p faction that has some sort of role block ability hence asking you what the hell do you see different

[Loose Canon]

That would be purely speculative/imaginative from me dev.

I'm looking at the win %s which say to me there is a role which wins instead of as opposed to with either town or mafia.

[Loose Canon]

Actually speculation probably doesn't help the argument that you should be lynched as 3p, but I will say something that has occurred to my overfurtive imagination.

How about anyone who visits chaos agent, makes them seem opposite if they are investigated?

The argument for lynching you doesn't rest on how the chaos agent works, it rests on the interactions between you and sonic, and what sonic has said/hinted about the game set up.
And the win %s saying such 3p player has to be somehow dealt with for other factions to win.

[Ragian]

I like your response, Dev. I don't like Darin's vote. I don't like EW's absence from this.

[Loose Canon]

Ok ragian what do you like about Devs response?

[SoN!c]

CHAOS AGENT:

You’re not with the police. You’re not with the mob.
You’re here to watch the world crack — to push people’s buttons, spread suspicion, and make even the innocent question their own memories.

In noir terms:

A professional interrogator turned rogue.
Maybe ex-FBI, maybe freelance “consultant.”
Maybe a brilliant, manipulative profiler with his own twisted code of ethics
Your methods were too extreme, so they cut you loose… now you play both sides.

“I don’t lie, Detective. I just let you hear the truth you fear most.”

Role Overview

Alignment :Neutral (Independent)
Codename: "Lecter" — A former FBI behavioral analyst turned rogue consultant.
Goal: Survive until the end while ensuring at least one faction loses unfairly (trust collapse, wrongful conviction, or false confession).
Specialty: Psychological manipulation, interrogation mastery, and manufactured evidence.

“Empathy is a scalpel. Use it gently, and the truth bleeds out.”

Strategy

Early Game: Subtly steer interrogations; ask questions that make emotional guilt stand out.

Mid Game: Use Distortion to make an innocent appear deceptive, or swap guilt cards to cloud the Cop’s reads.

Late Game: Drop your Fabricate Evidence bomb right when trust wavers.

Endgame: You win if doubt, not proof, defines the outcome.

Example Role-Play Lines

“Tell me, Officer — do you enjoy confession, or merely the illusion of control it gives you?”

“Guilt is not the same as responsibility. Some of us wear it as fashion.”

“Ah, but if the truth destroys trust, was it ever worth finding?”

[SoN!c]

"The Town of All Elevens Eve

In a village wrapped in whisper’d dread,
Eleven souls lie wake in bed.
The moon looks down, her silver eye,
To judge who lives and who shall die.

One claims to cure what cannot die,
To stitch the truth and splice the lie.
Each soul a subject, each breath a cause—
Behold the mind of Dr. Chaos..

“Where others heal, he festers. Where others plan, he laughs.
For in the end, balance itself is the disease — and he is the cure.”

[Extreme Ways]

I like your response, Dev. I don't like Darin's vote. I don't like EW's absence from this.

I am strongly leaning Dev to be third party. I am not sure enough to vote it, games here tend to... not require a lynch every day.

Dev is for certain a "lone wolf", just whether it is from town or from 3p is the question. Most recent "chaos agent" all but confirms that once again for me but also Dev has no allies.

So I dont like how the wagon is formed.

@hjelp in case of needing clarification, claiming a role is standard on L-2. Bringing someone to L-1 before they claimed invites both scum and triggerhappy town to hammer and it's an easy way to dodge accountability, especially when D1 is statistically the least likely to hit a scum. Both Dev and Kingm reached L-1 if I recall correctly, which I do not like.

Mafia want to blend in instead of standing out. Most people thus adopt a kind of sheep mentality and dont go for strong pushes by themselves, making enemies isn't good. Being "wrong" too many times also isn't good. Being in the middle of the pack in voting is a good place to be, but being the penultimate vote may just be worth it. Of course mafia know this all, but it is way more difficult to make waves as scum and not fall through still.

[Loose Canon]

Ok extreme let's discuss.

There's the "at least one faction loses unfairly'" bit.
In the goals bit it's giving examples of how that might make town lose unfairly.

The only way I can imagine a chaos agent role could make mafia lose unfairly is if mafia thinks they can win with a kill at the end but then find they can't kill chaos agent. That would be difficult to pull off I think.

Therefore my thinking is chaos agent will choose a seemingly easier route and create chaos for town.

Can you imagine or suggest the opposite?

[Loose Canon]

I said let's discuss but I'm going to bed in real life now

[kongming3]

Skimming a bit, will come back in tomorrow before day closes. 3p faction seems to have revealed to be one person and has a bussing power to swap targets/make someone look guilty. Unclear to me exactly what or how "Fabricate Evidence" bomb would work at the moment, and endgame win condition is also not super clear.

For what it's worth, I doubt scum targets Devante here at night if he isn't lynched, despite what some people think. Either he is scum, and so would be spared for obvious reasons, or is suspicious looking town/3p and leaving him alive creates more chaos for town to deal with. Better for them to use kills on potential town prs who are more probable town in the eyes of the public currently, rather than someone who would be sowing doubt/chaos in a scattered town and buying scum time and space. That said, if the 3p is able to do something like swap who scum was targeting to get a scum-on-scum kill happening, they'd obviously be a lot more incentivized to hunt down the 3p, but doesn't seem super likely from the mod description.

As it stands, town is the dominant but confused faction so the 3p should want to keep scum and town relatively even, and scum probably wants 3p alive as they get almost only positives from chaos from what I can tell and close the gap with each day town doesn't make useful progress.

Need to check how people have been voting and what dev claimed before I cast a potential lynch vote, will do so tomorrow.

[Ragian]

Why discuss something we cannot know? It's speculation, not discussion.

I like Dev's response because he seems willing to die for town. However, as I've stated just that during D1, so he might be pocketing me (am I using that correctly?)...

Fastposted by kong. I like his post.

[halrob64]

Dev
Community sword, open interaction with Sonic. On fear of death to reveal information that is sacred to role and cannot be revealed in open discussion.
Both are guilty but we cannot lynch Sonic.
do you have ant comments?

[Loose Canon]

Kong , I hadn't considered the possibility of chaos including possibly swapping mafia targets and therefore mafia wanting him out for that reason.

I don't think that switches me personally.

I think it's best to lynch D1 and so use D1 to eliminate some chaos.

I also think any jail keeper might turn out to be most important town role

Trying to go back to sleep after this post

[strike wolf]

So from what I can make out, the Chaos agent has 3 abilities. A cop style investigative ability and 2 types of framer adjacent type abilities. The first of the two seems to be closer to a true framer, switching how the cop would see alignment when investigating a target. The fabrication bomb thing is more speculative. It seems likely to falsify a night action or something similar. It could also be some kind of "two truths and a lie" type deal where Son!c announces 3 things about 3 players and we have to figure out which one is fabricated. The early, mid and late gsme clues mean that the Chaos Agent can only use these abilities at the corresponding points in the game. The win con for Chaos Agent is to survive and cause one side to lose unfairly. For town, this likely could happen through one of his framing abilities causing a mislynch. Mafia would be tougher, but if they have a Godfather or a busdriver/framer/other type of manipulative role that the Chaos Agent interferes with that causes them to lose a member who might have otherwise been saved because of their own manipulation. In a close game, the Chaos Agent simply being tbe deciding vote on a lynch that determines the game might qualify.

So none of these facts seem to align with how the Community sword worked in the previous game. However, theres no strong evidence that the Community Sword would have the same effects as it did in the last game. Its pretty much just circumstantial evidence on how it would work based on the other game.

On the sword itself, its unlikely to be mafia. It's abilities were too strong to be mafia aligned and would have to be significantly nerfed for it not to give the mafia too much power. 3rd party is technically possible but what we know about the sword and what we have been told about the Chaos Agent doesnt seem to line up with how the sword has functioned in the past. We do seem to have mod confirmation that Dev possesses tje sword.

So either Dev is not the Chaos Agent, or the sword itself is part of the misdirect with his role.

[strike wolf]

For the record, any other mod and Id probably dismiss the idea of doing a two truths and a lie or two lies and a truth game as too out there and hard to balance in a mafia setting but Son!c is a wild and wacky guy and I dont put much past him.

[Loose Canon]

If I'm tunneling frantically it's because of the time pressure.

AND the win chance estimate maths.

Most of you guys are tunneling with me re looking at what chaos agent might do though more than whether Dev is said agent.

Only rag seems to be thinking either he's not or if he is that's good for town.

It's in the win chance estimate maths guys.

[Ragian]

Am I the only one still unsure of what Dev has claimed?

[Loose Canon]

Does dev think he's a chaos agent?