Line of Duty Mafia game - DAY 2

[TrafalgarLaw01]

FollowingTraf's logic that only night actions matter; why are we voting Kingm again?

Are You being serious? You are not understanding what I have been saying. Does not surprise me after You accusations changing what I said.
I have never said only night actions matter. I have only said D1 is useless cause there is 0 info still people like to craft magical theories that are not true

[SoN!c]

So what exactly is the case on KINGM?

And what exactly is the plan if he flips town?

[annieh]

Extremely messy day 1
Unprompted vanilla claim
Prevents trackers from having to be all, "no, I'll look at kingm you go somewhere else" later
No good reason to switch has been established
That one time he called me Ms Karen
Resolution of distracting mystery

What we gain is a voting record. I thought that was the big idea anyway.

[homer_jay]

i think the plan if he flips town is that we lose

but seriously, if we're wrong on this, we need to have better luck on our night actions and hope the replacement players are active and we can get some numbers back. but we're definitely behind the 8 ball

[SoN!c]

i think the plan if he flips town is that we lose

Exactly.

On D1 the Kingm flip was the best option we had given the situation we need to deal with. His flip would tell us something about his scummy looking interactions with scummy looking Charle and Traf.

Charle staying away on his wagon looking like a fellow scum that did not wanted to lynch his scum brother, Kingm's scummy very short "self distancing vote" on Traf and so on..

But all those flip reasons are no longer in play.. On D2 Charle and Traf are established as town...

So what is the case on Kingm?

Just 2 things left:

1) his "total unprudent" series of posting what he calls "funny stuf".. (karen remark included). Looking more clumsy then scummy in the end.

(Scum knows they need to be prudent when posting. So this "unprudent" series of his posting - with Charle and Traf no longer fellow suspects - is more a town trait then a scummy mark in the end..)

2) so the only thing we really have is his vanilla claim.

So we need to establish if a vannila claim is possible in this high PR setup.
If its possible i think we need to take our chances on a "silent hiding place": Kong, DJfireside. Devante 2 (riskmaster sub).

@Hjelp. @Strike: is a VT role possible? Or is everybody PR of sorts?

[SoN!c]

Going for kingm now will give scum an easy rider D2 game if Kingm flips town. They just have to stay silent. Nothing more. .

[SoN!c]

Im not saying “kingm is town” — im saying even if the case on him has some merit, the cost of being wrong is catastrophic right now.

So let's not tunnel on the question “is he scummy?”; but let's play the game-state clock.

Because if we just go for Kingm now then: scum’s optimal play becomes “radio silence” for the rest of D2 and deep into D3.. — no need to defend, no need to create fake cases, no need to react. They just coast. We are handing out "Free ride tickets". And I say : "Nobody rides for free".



In a high-PR game with so many zombie ghosts "radio silence" - like Traf was doing - is extra punishing: town needs every body + every night action to generate info. A “silent D2 end” hands scum the tempo for free.

Where is Kong hiding? He is way too silent..where is DJfireside hiding?

The case on kingm was strongest on D1 (scum interactions with Charle/Traf ). Those reasons just evaporated once Charle and Traf were cleared as town. In short the wagon on Kingm is running on fumes and is scum's best hopes for a total town blow out..

We should use the rest of D2 (we still have a week to april 8th to generate fresh info) instead of just recycling D1 Kingm "leftover remnants".

Strategically i feel the current kingm push is even a trap for town: even if it feels right, the downside could be massive. The current case on Kingm is just a “weak case, but high mislynch cost”.

The cost - if he flips town - is a potential "Doom Spiral" + town fragmentation on D3.

Scum will stay quiet while town keeps arguing in circles. Scum reach parity by D4/N4. The “easy rider” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So let's shift focus to silent players. And let's even do a random lynch on the silent types - why not? (Kong, Strike, DJFireside, New Devante AKA "riskmaster"). If nothing it forces scum to either engage (risking slips) or stay hidden (increasing suspicion).

Vote DJfireside

[SoN!c]

Or any better proposal on one of the silent lurkers (devante, Kong...).

[Charle]

Vote King

[Ragian]

Look, if we're forcing another claim (I'm not sure what your aim is, Son!C), and if we're close to losing, we might as well mass claim. At least that will give us more information if that's what we're after.

Steve Arnott checks out as a coo type role. Though I'd think that Hastings would've been the main man, but that's just flavour, so fuckit...

[Devante]

Think there's already been too many claims as it is. All it's doing is giving scum a tidy list to pick from. What was the main reason for king vote? I can get behind it but there's been so much mess last several pages i'm trying to catch up here

[SoN!c]

Think there's already been too many claims as it is. All it's doing is giving scum a tidy list to pick from. What was the main reason for king vote? I can get behind it but there's been so much mess last several pages i'm trying to catch up here

The main reason (the only reason) is his vanilla claim (and the idea that there are no vanilla in this PR heavy game).

[SoN!c]

And yes we are close to losing (however it all depends on how the mod is gonna deal with the zombie situation).

We have nothing to say about Cofari and Cod. If they are both scum and get modkilled: great.

However % chances are bigger they are just town.. we just don't know because you can't question awols..

So: If Kingm flips town and Cofari and Cod (modkilled) are town too that's 3 townie's + the scum nightkill(s) DEAD.

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. And 4 of those are scum in that scenario..

We have time until april 8th. Why don't we use that time? We have a cop - we have 1 tracker and 1 wacher, there is a doc out there.. i think all of them need the extra time to make sure they are not all investigating the same target?

Also Kingm has been scum in his 4 games. LC knows that. It might be a reason why Kingm was not handed out a scum rule in this one. Yes it's very minor reason but still it could be an issue.. 5 times scum in a row? What are the odds man?

[SoN!c]

If you force a claim out of Devante or Kong or DJfireside - take your pick on that silent bunch - and they claim vanilla. Where is the "big case" on Kingm then?

[hjelp]

...
@Hjelp. @Strike: is a VT role possible? Or is everybody PR of sorts?

If related to the TV-serie I think that all of us have a PR, some sort.

[SoN!c]

"The Line of Duty series follows Anti-Corruption Unit 12 (AC-12), a fictional law enforcement unit tasked with "policing the police". AC-12 is led by Superintendent Ted Hastings who is assisted by his team consisting of DS Steve Arnott and DI Kate Fleming. Together, they conduct an investigation into an organised crime group."

So we have our 3 town stars:

Charle - as superintendant Hastings
Homer - as DS Steve Arnot
Traf - as DI Kate Fleming

Meaning no more "town names" are out there?.. (matching Kingm's claim that he hasn't received a name) if the flavour is correct..

The main cast are those 3 + 2 "bad ones"


DS John Corbett / John Clayton
DS Steve Arnott
DI Kate Fleming
Superintendent Ted Hastings
DCS Patricia Carmichael

Detective Chief Superintendent Patricia Carmichael in Line of Duty is considered a brilliant, yet "bad" or highly loathsome villain by fans.


DS John Corbett / John Clayton : Corbett was an undercover officer embedded in an Organized Crime Group (OCG) under the alias John Clayton, acting as a master forger to expose links between the police and criminals.
"Gone Rogue": He went "rogue" after losing contact with his superior, Detective Superintendent Alison Powell, feeling his mission was being undermined.
Ruthless Methods: While his aim was to bring down "bent coppers," he participated in violent criminal activities, including the murder of fellow police officers, justifying it by claiming they were "vermin".

So let's gamble on the fact that 2 out of 4 scum received those names "DS John Corbett / undercover John Clayton " and DCS Patricia Carmichael just like our 3 town stars have received theirs..

Why would Kingm claim D1 that he has not received a role name if it's not the truth? He answered that question by Charle pretty fast..

[annieh]

FP by Sonic

Think there's already been too many claims as it is. All it's doing is giving scum a tidy list to pick from. What was the main reason for king vote? I can get behind it but there's been so much mess last several pages i'm trying to catch up here

The main reason (the only reason) is his vanilla claim (and the idea that there are no vanilla in this PR heavy game).

From someone who did what Sonic did with the evidence on Traf, this comment is outrageous.

And are we seriously trying to force more claims?

Neither Cod or Kingm is AC 12 elite- Ted, Steve, or Kate. That's enough to know about that.

I'm open to abstaining from a lynch if mafia math somehow supports it.

I do not wish to continue a fishing expedition.

[SoN!c]

What's the harm in forcing more claims when the AC 12 elite- Ted, Steve, and Kate are all in the open already? The pick list for scum is already maxed out and that includes all AC-12 finest already.. what is there to lose?

[Devante]

More claims simply gives scum the knowledge of what everyone's PR is, there's already too many out there why the hell would we add to the buffet. If kings evidence is simply that he has a vanilla claim I don't see how that is enough to lynch him. Is that all we have to go on other then the quiet ones who are MIA

[SoN!c]

Well he did call Annieh "karen"...so lets lynch him for that.. ?Pretty sure that was just a joke..

If somebody wants to present the case on Kingm clearly - other then the vanilla claim question - with actual quotes and clear evidence connecting his play related to other scum looking players - not just saying "he was scummy" but actual quoting his posts giving actual scum theories be my guest. Without the Traf / Charle scum looking interactions (cleared) its just running on fumes if you ask me.

[Djfireside]

UNVOTE Traf

My apologies on lack of commenting I was watching the parlay between Sonic and Traf over the weekend and injected my stance on traf and got busy and wanted to post yesterday but life got me. I will agree with others noted that we shouldn't mass claim just yet but I will say I am not a vanilla and I would argue no one is based on what we know so far. The premise of limited shot abilities and based on the amount lends me to think everyone has something.

I will also address the Day1 statement since I have seen it a few times on me pulling from King at the end. We were on them for a few days and nothing was happening and I stated throughout D1, I believe a lynch is good information so I figured with the amount of active people at the time that it was possible to flip to an inactive and choose the best suited person. I had higher hopes than what I got. King still played classic bad cop and went dirty harry and pulled vanilla which I agree are all bad. Like D1, I am okay with their lynching.

So Ill complete Annie's request, who are my scummys

KingM: I dont believe there is a vanilla claim. They acted very irrational and responded weirdly D1. They were wildly active and then shut down but the vanilla claim still gets me.

The whole traf thing is really catching me off guard. The fact that two people went to them when there were more notable targets to watch is just strange to me. Homer has been out for similar reasons I would have been so I get the lapses in time but they seem to have dropped in to solidify themselves quickly on a already confirmed target. Homer mentioned that the reason was a comment from day 1 maybe on page 6 that caught them off but I went through all of Trafs comments and didnt find anything triggering. Traf has played strange but two confirms plays at the law of averages for them but Homer I dont know.

Kong still is on my radar from previous day activities and no new activity leaves them where they are.

[annieh]

Think there's already been too many claims as it is. All it's doing is giving scum a tidy list to pick from. What was the main reason for king vote? I can get behind it but there's been so much mess last several pages i'm trying to catch up here

Kingm vote traction started early day 1 with me calling out what looked like attempted bandwagoning on his part. He then denied the quote altogether, sending him fully down sketchy lane. After that was the unpressed claim, after that was the awkward name interaction with Charle. There was some end of day 1 vote weirdness. There's his absence day 2. There's the growing suspicion around any vanilla townie claim. Other people might include other details. It doesn't have to be a certainty to be the best we've got.

Basically he had suspicions on him from the beginning and at every opportunity failed to redeem himself.

Maybe it's all people trying to save their own asses, but the kingm vote has had buy-in from nearly everyone at some point or other. Remember how sonic said how kingm was the clear and obvious target for trackers? The Ms Karen thing is simply my personal bonus grudge.

The other reasons are in my last couple posts from not long ago. Like that we'd need a reason to switch and don't have one and how it simplifies the night actions for our many PR cops. That it benefits the town to have a voting record.

There's more than one way to find out kingm's identity. Maybe if we have a trustworthy cop or another letter of the law we can figure it out during the night with no lynch but see what I'm saying with the public coordination of night actions being a problem.

[annieh]

If Sonic hates the kingm vote, and it seems like he does, there's always Cod.

Cod seems important while also not being Ted, Steve, or Kate.
Kingm gets some credit for posting. I'd hate to get voted before someone who did exactly nothing (cod).
Could vote cod and no one feels too sad if we get it wrong. Voting kingm and getting it wrong would be sadder. (Kingm's Sweetie Pie Defense)
If replacements aren't coming, that's a long time to spend with silent cod. We could avoid that.

Plenty to comment on anyway!

[hjelp]

I abandoned my strategy to get inactive players involved since they will be mod-killed. Cofari at the end of D2 and Cod D3. So, no need to vote on Cofari. I can switch back to my strategy and vote for Cod if necessary. I will keep my vote on Kingm for now as I think all of us have PR some sort.

[homer_jay]

Annie has summed up most of what made kingm suspicious on D1. i still think he's the most suspicious target we have, but sonic is right - the fact that charle and traf are town does lessen some of the suspicion. we could target one of the active but silent players. it makes sense that with town chasing after the wrong players so far, scum will stay silent and let us waste time and draw out so many claims.

it becomes a guessing game though. is someone silent because they're scum or because they're genuinely busy. but if we look at the odds... sonic listed 4 active but silent players (djfireside has since popped in) and we have two fully inactives. considering the number of confirmed town, undisputed claims, and active players who have drawn no suspicion, we may have pretty good odds

1. strike wolf - silently active
2. TrafalgarLaw01 - confirmed town
3. ORIGINAL Devante TOWN ALIGNED - PAPER TRAIL - KILLED NIGHT 1
4. Ragian - undisputed claim
5. Djfireside - silently active
6. Cofari - MIA
7. hjelp
8. homer_jay - undisputed claim
9. NEW DEVANTE
10. Kingm - suspicious, but maybe we aren't so sure now?
11. Charle - undisputed claim
12. kongming3 - silently active
13. SoN!c - confirmed town
14.general cod - MIA
15. annieh - believe townie

i'm not sure how to classify hjelp and new devante. sonic listed new devante as silent, but (without having looked back to confirm) he does seem to be posting. as long as hjelp and new devante don't both turn out to be scum, i think we have at least a 60% chance of being right if we pick randomly from the silent players.

unless sonic is wrong and king is in fact scum. then our chances drop to at least 40%, maybe 60% if hjelp and new devante are both town

i don't like the idea of a blind lynch (it's why i wasn't on board with a D1 lynch until king blew his game up) but we can narrow the possible targets down pretty well.