If the dice are so random?

[nikola_milicki]

I had a little something here about dice too, concerning attacking 1 unit territories (see "Dice, again"). Got screwed again today, more than once of course. You know I'm getting really worried cause its becoming harder to control this rage within me. Hope I don't hurt some innocent bystander when it explodes. I spent hours, days playing risk in real life and its just impossible to lose 7, 8... units attacking 1 , at least it didnt happen to me. Why is that possible here, dice are behaving unreal. Starting to think Die-orama or what ever is his nickname has never played risk or even held dice in his hand, even more rolled them a couple of times.

[nikola_milicki]

Is it just me or what, just lost 5 attacking 1 when I was about to eliminate someone, this is just too much, somebody do something, starting to lose my mind here, how could this be, noooooooo

[mathgeni]

the only reason to worry that the dice are rigged is cause you keep losing cause your strategy sucks

i have the dice go against me too- but i'm not worried about it cause i win more games than i lose (approximately 65% win record)

so get over it and move on- pick games and settings that suit your strategy and get a strategy that works

[TTman]

Ok I'll ask the question agaian If your a'll getting the dice from the same source at the same time why don't you have the same luck as the other players? Why can't someone answer this question without quoting statistics or wingeing .

[Genghis Khan CA]

Ok I'll ask the question agaian If your a'll getting the dice from the same source at the same time why don't you have the same luck as the other players? Why can't someone answer this question without quoting statistics or wingeing .

You may think you are not having the same luck... but you will over the long run. Sure in one game or even 10 games your opponent may have all the luck and you none. But the point everyone is making is that in the long run, over say 100 games or 1000 you will have pretty close the the expected wins/losses/draws for your dice rolls.

If you dont believe me get the dice analyser and try it for yourself.

Your initial question was why players dont have the same luck at the same time in the same game - the answer is the sample size is too small.

[sully800]

Ok I'll ask the question agaian If your a'll getting the dice from the same source at the same time why don't you have the same luck as the other players? Why can't someone answer this question without quoting statistics or wingeing .

Because 'luck' is not something that the computer categorizes.

There are strings of numbers produced by the random number generator. When the dice are rolled, a random number from a line is chosen and the rest is discarded and replaced by a new line. Each roll is produced individually, but when you string several high numbers together you would probably call it good luck, and when your string several bad numbers you would classify it as bad luck.

It's not like the random number generator has settings of good, bad or normal, and whichever its set on is what you end up with. You roll a die, and get a random number. The 'luck' all depends on what you think of those rolls.

And since a new random number is selected each time, two different people don't generally (though they could) get exactly the same 'luck' because luck is simply how all those random numbers combine.

Got it?

[kwanton]

I had a little something here about dice too, concerning attacking 1 unit territories (see "Dice, again"). Got screwed again today, more than once of course. You know I'm getting really worried cause its becoming harder to control this rage within me. Hope I don't hurt some innocent bystander when it explodes. I spent hours, days playing risk in real life and its just impossible to lose 7, 8... units attacking 1 , at least it didnt happen to me. Why is that possible here, dice are behaving unreal. Starting to think Die-orama or what ever is his nickname has never played risk or even held dice in his hand, even more rolled them a couple of times.

Yea I notice this too. I've played risk in real life and losing this many trying to take one rarely happens. On CC however this seems to happen much more often than it should. I honestly think that the dice aren't truly random. Everyone's argument is "oooo random.org says it is random." So? They could be lying. Or how about "Dice analyzer shows regular stats" So? Who programmed it? Do you manually keep track of it yourself? No that's why you got the dice analyzer. But how can you be sure the dice analyzer is genuinely analyzing the dice and not just giving out the expected numbers?

Ok I'll ask the question agaian If your a'll getting the dice from the same source at the same time why don't you have the same luck as the other players? Why can't someone answer this question without quoting statistics or wingeing .

O and there's a flaw in your theory or whatever. When you play cards everyone is getting their cards from the same source (the deck) at the same time. But not everyone will have the same "luck". Some people will get high cards and some people will get low cards even though they may be pulling from the same source at the same time. It's the same deal with dice.

Hope that cleared things up for ya.

[nikola_milicki]

I'm not saying I do everything right, then get fucked with bad rolls and blame them for every shit that happens. I can see for myself that I get irrational when pressing attack button sometimes but please open your eyes people, why is this ignored, its just crazy to lose 7, 8, 10 or much more units attacking 1 every single day. Maybe I see it better then the rest of you cause I get screwed like that more often, I don't know. Its a bitch cause sometimes it can really decide the winner, first the opponent gets a brake his been waiting for, second gets a little lucky with the rolls, and everything goes down the hill just in one round, happens every day.

And by the way, MATHGENI you are doing great, keep up the good work.

[TTman]

Yes guy's I understand you aren't going to be the winner in every go, but when a game is over several round's (bearing in mind other people are rolling the dice between your goes) why does one person seem to have worse luck than others or vica versa in a whole game?

[nikola_milicki]

Ok I'll ask the question agaian If your a'll getting the dice from the same source at the same time why don't you have the same luck as the other players? Why can't someone answer this question without quoting statistics or wingeing .

Because 'luck' is not something that the computer categorizes.

There are strings of numbers produced by the random number generator. When the dice are rolled, a random number from a line is chosen and the rest is discarded and replaced by a new line. Each roll is produced individually, but when you string several high numbers together you would probably call it good luck, and when your string several bad numbers you would classify it as bad luck.

It's not like the random number generator has settings of good, bad or normal, and whichever its set on is what you end up with. You roll a die, and get a random number. The 'luck' all depends on what your think of those rolls.

And since a new random number is selected each time, two different people don't generally (though they could) get exactly the same 'luck' because luck is simply how all those random numbers combine.

Got it?

Sully, to me that sounds like something you can read of random.org

Can anyone out there guarantee and prove rolls aren't set up this way on purpose, cause its just to fucking unbelievable to lose XXX units attacking only 1

[freezie]

Yes guy's I understand you aren't going to be the winner in every go, but when a game is over several round's (bearing in mind other people are rolling the dice between your goes) why does one person seem to have worse luck than others or vica versa in a whole game?

Because you cannot control luck. You cannot say someone will have a lucky turn followed by unlucky turn. The fact it is random makes it uncontrollable.

Some people will get lucky for a whole game, while their opponent wont. Or their opponent will get a lucky turn and normal luck, but still lose because the other is lucky.

Or one of them will be normal lucked, while the others gets random unlucky turns.


There is no way to tell what will happen. NO way to control it.


You could be lucky for a whole game, but after hundred of games, the luck will even out things. Same thing for your opponent. You CANNOT rely on a single game.

[kwanton]

Sully, to me that sounds like something you can read of random.org

Exactly. That's all anyone does. I've been to random.org. They use ambient atmospheric noise or whatever. From my understanding this atmospheric noise can just be recordings of the inner-workings of an office building. Now tell me something like that doesn't get repetitive. Anyone see office space? "Corporate accounts payable Nina speaking. Corporate accounts payable Nina speaking. Corporate accounts payable...."

And this isn't just office buildings. Atmospheric noise can mean thunder crashing which can also be repetitive. Any form of this "atmospheric noise can be considered such and is NOT random IMO.

Edit:And I've posted these theories before and no one has responded to em. No one can counter?

[OnlyAmbrose]

Or how about "Dice analyzer shows regular stats" So? Who programmed it? Do you manually keep track of it yourself? No that's why you got the dice analyzer. But how can you be sure the dice analyzer is genuinely analyzing the dice and not just giving out the expected numbers?

Riiiiight... the dice analyzer is a conspiracy made by an agent of random.org to convince us of the genuine nature of their dice. They bribed the programmer to generate the numbers they wanted.

Michael Moore should get on this right away.

[kwanton]

Or how about "Dice analyzer shows regular stats" So? Who programmed it? Do you manually keep track of it yourself? No that's why you got the dice analyzer. But how can you be sure the dice analyzer is genuinely analyzing the dice and not just giving out the expected numbers?

Riiiiight... the dice analyzer is a conspiracy made by an agent of random.org to convince us of the genuine nature of their dice. They bribed the programmer to generate the numbers they wanted.

Michael Moore should get on this right away.

Just cause I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong

And read my points on their "ambient noise" bullcrap.

[TTman]

Ok let's keep this sensible

[sully800]

Sully, to me that sounds like something you can read of random.org

Exactly. That's all anyone does. I've been to random.org. They use ambient atmospheric noise or whatever. From my understanding this atmospheric noise can just be recordings of the inner-workings of an office building. Now tell me something like that doesn't get repetitive. Anyone see office space? "Corporate accounts payable Nina speaking. Corporate accounts payable Nina speaking. Corporate accounts payable...."

And this isn't just office buildings. Atmospheric noise can mean thunder crashing which can also be repetitive. Any form of this "atmospheric noise can be considered such and is NOT random IMO.

Edit:And I've posted these theories before and no one has responded to em. No one can counter?

If you have a problem with the way the random numbers are generated I would right to random.org....perhaps they could provide you with some info to back up the validity of the randomness. And if you have a better idea of what source CC can use to generate random numbers, by all means suggest it.

I stated what I know about how the numbers are generated, and I am satisfied with their performance (yes, I get terribly screwed just like the rest of you, but I also get great dice sometimes and I'm sure you do as well).

[Bean_]

I had a little something here about dice too, concerning attacking 1 unit territories (see "Dice, again"). Got screwed again today, more than once of course. You know I'm getting really worried cause its becoming harder to control this rage within me. Hope I don't hurt some innocent bystander when it explodes. I spent hours, days playing risk in real life and its just impossible to lose 7, 8... units attacking 1 , at least it didnt happen to me. Why is that possible here, dice are behaving unreal. Starting to think Die-orama or what ever is his nickname has never played risk or even held dice in his hand, even more rolled them a couple of times.

Premium members may be playing 25 to 50 (or more) turns per day. Such a member might attack 50 to 100 territories with a 1 in them each day, often with big stacks. Losing a 5v1 happens about 2.8% of the time; losing a 6v1 about 1.0% of the time. So it really isn't that surprising that this is a daily occurrence.

When you play RISK IRL, you are taking considerably fewer turns, and thus unusual die rolls happen less frequently.

[mathgeni]

i don't like to be rude.. but i feel i need to be a little harsh here...

to the moron who still doesn't believe in randomness of the dice...
luck is a subjective term- let's remove it from the discussion

we will instead discuss probability...

the probability of rolling any single number is 1/6
the probability of rolling any string of 3 numbers is 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6

so the probability of rolling one die and getting a 6 is 1/6
the probability of getting a 6 when rolling 3 die is actually 1/216

do you get it now... the probability of winning when defending is actually higher than the probability of winning when attacking with more die than is being defended with

it is simple math and it requires only simple understanding...... THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS HAVING THE SAME LUCK WHEN IT IS FROM THE SAME SOURCE BECAUSE IT IS NOT LUCK IT IS PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

[mathgeni]

and also playing risk IRL involves more factors that affect the outcome of the roll

such factors include:

- what numbers are facing up on the die when they are rolled
- how hard the die are rolled
- what objects the die may bounce off of
- the texture of the surface on which the die are rolled


get the picture?

on CC it is a simple random generator that does not have all these factors involved

[jaseleo]

If the dice are random how is everybodys stats either the same or around the same??? i havent seen anyone with a massive spike on dice analyser statistics surely if this was this was the case we would see some people have a variance of 20% to 100% in different stats???????

Again if the dice where random everybodys stats would be be different nothing should even out

[Neutrino]

If the dice are random how is everybodys stats either the same or around the same??? i havent seen anyone with a massive spike on dice analyser statistics surely if this was this was the case we would see some people have a variance of 20% to 100% in different stats???????

Again if the dice where random everybodys stats would be be different nothing should even out

But over a long period of time with a large number of dice rolled, the stastics will even out.

If everybody had rolled only 10 or so dice then you would see huge percentage differences, but after a few hundred thousand, you can be pretty sure that most of the anomalies will be worked out.

[jaseleo]

If the dice are random how is everybodys stats either the same or around the same??? i havent seen anyone with a massive spike on dice analyser statistics surely if this was this was the case we would see some people have a variance of 20% to 100% in different stats???????

Again if the dice where random everybodys stats would be be different nothing should even out

But over a long period of time with a large number of dice rolled, the stastics will even out.

If everybody had rolled only 10 or so dice then you would see huge percentage differences, but after a few hundred thousand, you can be pretty sure that most of the anomalies will be worked out.

If this is true then the dice are not random at all, are you telling me that every single person who plays cc will level out over time??? how can this be random come on somebody think about it everybody cant be level with so many users and so many dice thats just not random, is there something in the cc script that forces the dice for everyone to average the same percentages?? i would expect even one player to go on a great run with the dice and the dice analyser to be variable which at present it is not

[RobinJ]

If the dice are random how is everybodys stats either the same or around the same??? i havent seen anyone with a massive spike on dice analyser statistics surely if this was this was the case we would see some people have a variance of 20% to 100% in different stats???????

Again if the dice where random everybodys stats would be be different nothing should even out

But over a long period of time with a large number of dice rolled, the stastics will even out.

If everybody had rolled only 10 or so dice then you would see huge percentage differences, but after a few hundred thousand, you can be pretty sure that most of the anomalies will be worked out.

If this is true then the dice are not random at all, are you telling me that every single person who plays cc will level out over time??? how can this be random come on somebody think about it everybody cant be level with so many users and so many dice thats just not random, is there something in the cc script that forces the dice for everyone to average the same percentages?? i would expect even one player to go on a great run with the dice and the dice analyser to be variable which at present it is not

Most people's will average out over time. You are right that there are some people who have badly skewed dice but, because of the sheer number of dice being thrown, these people are few and far between. Most of CC will have roughly regular dice statistics.

I would like to add this: I do believe that CC's dice are not entirely random. However, we are all using the same dice so we all experience the same thing - everyone experiences terrible streaks of good and bad luck

[boberz]

Remember guys as well that IRL you role a lot less dice so you will not think that awfull dice are common whereas on CC lots of dice are rolled so there are a greater number of bad rolls. You remember these rolls more than your 4's

[jaseleo]

If the dice are random how is everybodys stats either the same or around the same??? i havent seen anyone with a massive spike on dice analyser statistics surely if this was this was the case we would see some people have a variance of 20% to 100% in different stats???????

Again if the dice where random everybodys stats would be be different nothing should even out

But over a long period of time with a large number of dice rolled, the stastics will even out.

If everybody had rolled only 10 or so dice then you would see huge percentage differences, but after a few hundred thousand, you can be pretty sure that most of the anomalies will be worked out.

If this is true then the dice are not random at all, are you telling me that every single person who plays cc will level out over time??? how can this be random come on somebody think about it everybody cant be level with so many users and so many dice thats just not random, is there something in the cc script that forces the dice for everyone to average the same percentages?? i would expect even one player to go on a great run with the dice and the dice analyser to be variable which at present it is not

Most people's will average out over time. You are right that there are some people who have badly skewed dice but, because of the sheer number of dice being thrown, these people are few and far between. Most of CC will have roughly regular dice statistics.

I would like to add this: I do believe that CC's dice are not entirely random. However, we are all using the same dice so we all experience the same thing - everyone experiences terrible streaks of good and bad luck

"Most of CC will have roughly regular dice statistics." doesnt this prove that there is no such thing as random???