I've had it

zarvinny · Post by **zarvinny** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 5:57 pm

You Had a 99.5% chanced of winning.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:20 pm

zarvinny wrote:You Had a 99.5% chanced of winning.

yup... my point exactly

Zemljanin · Post by **Zemljanin** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:38 pm

It depends of a number of countries. I opp had about 8 countries, you had only about 98.5%. If he had more, your chances to eliminate him were even less...

AAFitz · Post by **AAFitz** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:41 pm

Id be very suspicious of the managements dice, but ive seen lack play.....

If hes rigging the dice, than rig away

rabbiton · Post by **rabbiton** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:54 pm

hatchman wrote:
zarvinny wrote:You Had a 99.5% chanced of winning.
yup... my point exactly

was it just 1 army of 45 vs 1 army of 25?

or was it 45 v 25 armies of 1?

or was multiple separate attacks such as 11v6,11v6,11v6,12v7?

the odds are very different, depending.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:12 am

If I recall correctly, it was 21 vs 5,1,1,4 (11) and 24 vs 4,4,3,3 (14).

But still, the odds were >90% according to another player who assessed my numerical chances before I took the turn and then showed me the odds after my turn.

joecoolfrog · Post by **joecoolfrog** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:54 am

To be honest those numbers show you were unlucky but certainly not Freakishly so. Allowing for the retention of a single army after each gain then the figures become 18 v 11 and 21 v14 which translate as 2 x 90 % shots so about 80% overall,providing the dice were consistently equal over all 8 attacks. However it does not take much to bring this right down,lose 2 armies at the beginning of both attacks and you are down to around 65% and so not much better than evens to win overall.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:25 am

Yes I understand, but all I saw was an almost 2 to 1 ratio in my favour (24 vs 14 and 21 vs 11). If that aint enough, I don't know what is. I've done kills with a smaller advantage, and so have others. It felt like a sure thing. Perhaps I was an ass for assuming.

Zemljanin · Post by **Zemljanin** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:34 am

hatchman wrote:If I recall correctly, it was 21 vs 5,1,1,4 (11) and 24 vs 4,4,3,3 (14).

But still, the odds were >90% according to another player who assessed my numerical chances before I took the turn and then showed me the odds after my turn.

It' was >90% each, but net probability to eliminate him was little more than 87%. You still have right to be angry, but not shocked, since your chances were actually worse than 5 vs 2 (and everybody lost 5 vs 2 many, many times...).

jiminski · Post by **jiminski** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:26 am

Hey Hatch i hope i'm not adding to your annoyance here mate but:

As the attacker, is it possible to lose 2 men using 3 dice against 2 dice?

If the answer is yes then any loss is possible.

Probability is a theoretical tool which does in fact reflect reality but only if we sum up the entirety of reality. (hehe or 'lump')

If we use probability as our bible, as opposed to a guide, it becomes an albatross about our neck. It eats away at our rationale until all that is left is anger... trust me having played poker for some time i know it very well.

"What's that idiot doing going All-in to a re-raised pot with a 7-2?.. cracking my pocket Aces with a 10 % chance!" (don't pick me up on the % please)
After I've lost my entire stack, probability is irrelevant; with hindsight he won and had a 100% chance as the cards were predestined to give him his full house.

If you can't get that philosophy to stick, you can't play correctly in the next game. As was mentioned earlier you are now on TILT and you will be susceptible to any play which comes your way.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:06 am

Thanks Jim and everyone else who's given advice and insights. I'll try to keep a cool head, but I am "tilting" toward an extended leave of absence.

AAFitz · Post by **AAFitz** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:24 am

I hate to bring it up, but the dice are pretty much the same, on lets say...that other site weve played a few on too though, wouldnt you say?

When I got there, they did seem to favor the attacker, but now there is absolutely no difference as far as I can tell. Its one of the many reasons I dont worry about the dice too much.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:29 am

Well Fitz I don't know. Maybe I have a distorted impression of things, but when I went for reasonable kills over there (which was often LOL), only one failed and made me go WTF

You watched that British Isles game in which I killed off you and a couple of other guys in one turn. Then I got greedy and tried another kill which was ill-advised. I blame that particular failure on me pushing my luck. The dice acted "normal".

AAFitz · Post by **AAFitz** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:34 am

well ive played a hundred or so there...ive had the same luck there...

and im not saying youre right or wrong...more curious about your take on it

I found them to be just as volatile... i just lost a game after losing 13 to 3....
and didnt win one attack after that

thats only 6 bad rolls, but it was painful of course

chessplaya · Post by **chessplaya** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:51 am

all hatchman needs is a hug

*chessplaya hugs hatchman*

now its all over here folks u can all go to ur work ... nothing to see here

hatchman: ur rolls are always bad because u never take enough risk... u only attack when u have a 10or 15 or more armies advantage ... i lose alot of those numbers as well.. but since i take more risk ..i do win 30% of the times a 12 vs 12 .... a 10 vs 9 ... thats enough for me and many many more...

1 word of advise: ABUSE UR DICE .. BELIEVE ME U WILL BE HAPPY WITH THE OUTCOME!!!!

translation of abuse ur dice : abusing the dice goes like this .... do not stop attacking do not worry about losing massive armies .. auto attack everything in ur way ... go 4 vs 8 .. go 3 vs 5 ( i won a couple of those as well )

ABUSE THE DICE ... THE WAY TO MORE WINS

hope this helps .... i know ur bones are stick and ur a fine player ... dont worry about the dice... let it go...

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:08 am

Abuse the dice, Love the dice, Respect the dice, Blow on the dice...

This is all too absurd for my over-rational, mathematical brain.

Yeah Chess thanks. You've seen me play quite a few. I tend to go for kills that make sense numerically. I am a rational man with an emotional monster inside that rears its ugly head when the rational becomes irrational. Jim got it right when he said I rely too much on probability and don't compensate enough for fluke. I am fine-tuning now.

But there's no way I'm gonna go all-out and hit everything in sight as you suggest. You crazy ass LOL.

rabbiton · Post by **rabbiton** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:09 am

hatchman wrote:Yes I understand, but all I saw was an almost 2 to 1 ratio in my favour (24 vs 14 and 21 vs 11). If that aint enough, I don't know what is. I've done kills with a smaller advantage, and so have others. It felt like a sure thing. Perhaps I was an ass for assuming.

indeed. around 86% likely, meaning will fail 1 in 7 times. not that unlikely. a 2:1 ratio in and of itself is meaningless as it depends on the distribution... it could have been 11 lots of 4v2 for example, which has almost no chance of success.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:23 am

rabbiton wrote:
hatchman wrote:Yes I understand, but all I saw was an almost 2 to 1 ratio in my favour (24 vs 14 and 21 vs 11). If that aint enough, I don't know what is. I've done kills with a smaller advantage, and so have others. It felt like a sure thing. Perhaps I was an ass for assuming.
indeed. around 86% likely, meaning will fail 1 in 7 times. not that unlikely. a 2:1 ratio in and of itself is meaningless as it depends on the distribution... it could have been 11 lots of 4v2 for example, which has almost no chance of success.

Wouldn't you have gone for it? It was one of those turns which would decide the game. If I hadn't gone for it, one of the guys holding 4 or 5 cards would have. Yes I could have aborted, but it was one of those situations (in which I find myself too often) where the numbers after each attack continue to give hope that the job can be done. Then it gets to the last country and all of a sudden a 7 to 3 becomes a 2 to 2. But surely, the numbers I had at the start of the attacks would have made anyone smile: 21 vs 11/4 and 24 vs 14/4.

rabbiton · Post by **rabbiton** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:39 am

hatchman wrote: Wouldn't you have gone for it? It was one of those turns which would decide the game. If I hadn't gone for it, one of the guys holding 4 or 5 cards would have. Yes I could have aborted, but it was one of those situations (in which I find myself too often) where the numbers after each attack continue to give hope that the job can be done. Then it gets to the last country and all of a sudden a 7 to 3 becomes a 2 to 2. But surely, the numbers I had at the start of the attacks would have made anyone smile: 21 vs 11/4 and 24 vs 14/4.

depends on the exact situation, but most likely yes... i just wouldn't have come and posted about it if i failed. when you don't even know what the real odds of an outcome are, and most people generally don't, then you probably shouldn't be complaining about it.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:05 pm

rabbiton wrote:
hatchman wrote: Wouldn't you have gone for it? It was one of those turns which would decide the game. If I hadn't gone for it, one of the guys holding 4 or 5 cards would have. Yes I could have aborted, but it was one of those situations (in which I find myself too often) where the numbers after each attack continue to give hope that the job can be done. Then it gets to the last country and all of a sudden a 7 to 3 becomes a 2 to 2. But surely, the numbers I had at the start of the attacks would have made anyone smile: 21 vs 11/4 and 24 vs 14/4.
depends on the exact situation, but most likely yes... i just wouldn't have come and posted about it if i failed. when you don't even know what the real odds of an outcome are, and most people generally don't, then you probably shouldn't be complaining about it.

My friend, I posted because it's happened too many times and I am sick of it. Don't tell me when to post and when not to thank you very much. Do your thing, and let me do mine. Stay out of the thread if you don't like it.

It was only a matter of time until this turned into a personal attack. Never fails.

I could've put that much worse rabbit, so back off please. "don't even know what the real odds of an outcome are" ... Who the f*ck are you?

Uberwald · Post by **Uberwald** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:29 pm

Don't give up Hatch! Hang in there

Btw i believe it is a conspiracy against you

Metaphore · Post by **Metaphore** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:38 pm

The dice balance out in the end, but they definitely trend. Which is to say that the dice implementation on this site is NOT random.

KiwiTaker · Post by **KiwiTaker** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:50 pm

I seem to be having a major string of bad luck. Hang in there and yours should even out.

Hatchman · Post by **Hatchman** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:29 am

KiwiTaker wrote:I seem to be having a major string of bad luck. Hang in there and yours should even out.

I'd be more than happy if things did even out for me. That's all I ask. But lately it's gone wrong more often than it's gone right. It just happened again in yet another game. This time I had 26 vs 14 armies over 5 countries, 11 against 7 on one country, 9 against 5 over 2 countries, and 14 against 8 over 2 countries. I won the 11 vs 7 and lost the 9 against 5. The 9 against 5 was against a 1 and a 4, with most of the losses coming against the 1

I know the numbers weren't overwhelming in my favour, but they looked pretty darn good.

I'm a millimeter away from the end of my bloody patience. Had I won that kill, I would have collected 5 cards. Then there were two other guys also with 5 cards and both very much within reach!