Judgement Day- Game Over, MAFIA WIN!!!

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:33 pm

What's that about Firth? You said you already investigated Mandy earlier today and didn't get a read or something...

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:34 pm

I didn't get a read earlier.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:34 pm

firth4eva wrote:Announcement

Mandy is scum. That is the only part of the message I can reveal.

unvote vote mandy

I was fastposted by this, but given Firth's performance so far, I find this accusation more credible than any of the others floating around at the moment.

Unvote. Vote Mandy

I'm curious about that 'message', but I guess there won't be any elaborations...

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:35 pm

I can't

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:38 pm

firth4eva wrote:Sorry AD I already used my investigation. I investigated mandy and for some reason I didn't get my result back .I got a pm from jnd saying "for some reason you don't get the investigation result through".

I have no idea why

What changed?

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:43 pm

I know I sound super suspicious but I can't say anything other than mandy is scum.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:44 pm

Unvote

Ga7's questions are sensible and I'd like as much of an answer as possible. Nonetheless, for now Mandy is at the top of my list.

I don't think that if, say, Firth had been recruited by the dark side, he'd suicide like this. Which a fake accusation would amount to. Logic then dictates he's still neutral/goodish, and correct about Mandy.

So, I'll probably revote sooner or later, but an answer to ga7 would be nice, please and thank you.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:45 pm

firth4eva wrote:I know I sound super suspicious but I can't say anything other than mandy is scum.

Fastposted again...

I'll give it some thought. There's really nothing you could say about why the results of your investigation changed? No loopholes at all to be exploited?

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:55 pm

Koesen wrote:I don't think that if, say, Firth had been recruited by the dark side, he'd suicide like this. Which a fake accusation would amount to. Logic then dictates he's still neutral/goodish, and correct about Mandy.

That's the thing I'm pondering about. Firth's sudden change of stance makes me think that either he's lying, either he got a direct message from a god. In both cases, I assume that means he was recruited. Problem I see now is that it's a way too elaborate and beyond crazy ploy for Mandy to pull if he wasn't what he said, and there might be a good reason for the satan side to want Mandy to shut up definitely. Enough a trade off to put Firth on the line? Not sure, but an element in that sense is that Firth couldn't act like a good little neutral cop anymore, and make us lynch bad guys indefinitely. So yeah, I have my doubts on this, especially since I find Mandy believable.

mandalorian2298 · Post by **mandalorian2298** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:07 pm

firth4eva wrote:Announcement

Mandy is scum. That is the only part of the message I can reveal.

unvote vote mandy

The sheer number of people who know that I am on the size of good will make the lynch pretty tough order to fill.

Nobody else claims until I am at Lynch -1.

Also note that Firth is trying to win a No lynch for the Scum by spliting votes this close to the deadline.

My vote stays on AD.

Mod: if you are going to be all deadliney, you might try to update Vote Counts regulary.

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:17 pm

Would I really be that stupid mandy?

If I was scum why would I risk myself when almost everyone is guaranteed I am town, just to split the votes?

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:20 pm

ga7 wrote:Problem I see now is that it's a way too elaborate and beyond crazy ploy for Mandy to pull if he wasn't what he said

You're talking about Mandy here, right?

I can't say more without metagaming, but the guy has been known to fake claim as a townie in order to get other townies lynched. Nothing is beyond him.

Somebody correct me if I misread something in the past dozen or so pages, but isn't Mandy essentially a cop with one single target and a very limited number of investigations, some of which have been used up already?

Why would scum be so scared of someone like him that they sacrifice a recruited cop for it?

If I were scum and I managed to recruit Firth, I'd have him investigate and reveal town players by day, so that I'd know who to kill at night. I wouldn't throw him away to kill a guy with limited powers who has mostly done a great job of confusing people.

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:59 pm

But from what I see, Mandy supposedly got in touch in some way with the other pony hunters. He might be confusing people, but I'm sure he's helping a ton this group right now. Suppose that scum noticed that, and want to know the other guys all at once: easy, they'd reveal themselves if Mandy is in danger. It might be far fetched, but less than Mandy pulling this huge a stunt, added to that a bluff about other people knowing him... Nah, at this point there's too much in favor of the existence of the pony hunters. Mandy does crazy things ok, but I can't see how he would gain an advantage as scum doing that right now. And if he's really BSing us, well that'd be the first time I don't see it

Anyway, bottom line I might have bought Firth's result if he did it at the beginning of the day, now I really doubt it.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:08 pm

So you think Firth is scum, then?

What if Mandy got recruited?

When I am a scum recruiter, I like to recruit people who have openly attacked me (Nagerous in Re-Inquisition for the win!

). That might be a partial explanation for Firth's changed result (although if I were a mod, I'd only give him a new result if he reinvestigated).

My point is, there is at this point more proof for Firth's stories than for Mandy's. And given the recent developments, at least one of them has to be scum (and most likely only one of them).

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:13 pm

ga7 wrote:But from what I see, Mandy supposedly got in touch in some way with the other pony hunters.

How would he have done that? I first had the impression he didn't know any of them. His request that they not reveal themselves seems to indicate that they don't have a mason network.

Now he is suddenly so well known that he doubts a lynch will ever happen?

That would be a neat bluff to scare townies who aren't part of this network and who consider voting him. After all, if he's so massively well known, most people voting for him would have to be scum.

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:19 pm

I have no clue how the pony thing works, but I remember him saying he knew AD wasn't the white pony hunter etc. So I suppose they at least have partial knowledge of each other...
As for Mandy's possible recruitment, I believe Mandy was never neutral to start with, so it's more likely on Firth's case. Between him and Mandy, I'm more convinced Firth is now scum; problem is if we go along with one of the lynches and we're wrong, we're down a pretty important power role in both cases. I think it'd be wiser to put the matter aside for tomorrow and go ahead with the AD lynch.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:25 pm

I think there is solid evidence that either Mandy or Firth is scum, and that that evidence outweighs anything else that has been said today. We're garantueed at least a 50% succes ratio with them, as opposed to anybody else.

How would postponing acting on this development help town? If scum is recruiting people, we should follow the best leads right now, before they reach the critical point. One kill and one recruitment per day adds up really quickly.

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:31 pm

We might have 50% chance but the loss of either of them if we're wrong is still a damn high price to pay IMO. On the other hand, I think we also have at worst a 50% chance that AD is scum

Personally I find that there's been so many inconsistencies in AD defense that it'd be less risky a lynch. I'm sure it would help waiting tomorrow as for instance Firth might have a more convincing investigation to present us, or Mandy might die, etc.

Selin · Post by **Selin** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:34 pm

I wish I had a little Biblical knowledge to understand the background of all this discussions, but this case is hopeless for me. Sorry to say, but I have real difficulties to follow the storyline. This is the first ever mafia game where my contribution hasn't been really much.

I will continue to do my best from the logical point of view. My comments to some posts will follow next.

.

freezie · Post by **freezie** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:18 pm

Koesen wrote:I think there is solid evidence that either Mandy or Firth is scum, and that that evidence outweighs anything else that has been said today. We're garantueed at least a 50% succes ratio with them, as opposed to anybody else.

Not exactly, since firth claimed 3rd party.

Selin · Post by **Selin** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:26 pm

Skoffin wrote:When Nark made his claims I thought of it the way he claims, so far I trust him and do not see reason to vote him. There was something else but not quite sure what it was now... I'll reread and post it later. That and it's Nark, it'd be a waste to lose him this early
I'm also certain Mando is what he says he is.

Skoffin continues with his colorful posts!

spinwizard wrote:ok...I am sorry about being in-active. I am not sure who is scum, I'm so confused!

Another post of spin without saying anything. I think he had a total of 3-4 posts. It's more interesting for me to see him posting directly after Koesen's post about him. That happened twice up to now, first time when I posted about spin, he posted in about one hour. And now in about 30 minutes after Koesen's post he makes another post. Don't forget that spin made 3-4 posts in total during the last 3 weeks in this thread whereas he has been pretty active in all other threads posting a lot. What's the probability that this was a coincidence twice?

Conclusion: HE IS DEFINITELY FOLLOWING THE THREAD, but stays low!

nagerous wrote:lynching spin will be a mistake... even if he is being an inactive noob I'm a hypocrite thats all I can say right now

Conclusion: nagerous is on the same boat with spin.

nagerous wrote:don't worry I won't need doc protection for what I just said. Doc keep protecting firth... let the mafia target me if they want

Suspicious in my eyes... can be an advanced tactic for scum. You won't need a doc protection, if you are mafia. And we won't lynch you too, if you claim to be hypocrite! Why are you so worried about spin? Are you both mafia?

firth4eva wrote:Announcement

Mandy is scum. That is the only part of the message I can reveal.

unvote vote mandy

firth4eva wrote:I know I sound super suspicious but I can't say anything other than mandy is scum.

ga7 wrote:
Koesen wrote:I don't think that if, say, Firth had been recruited by the dark side, he'd suicide like this. Which a fake accusation would amount to. Logic then dictates he's still neutral/goodish, and correct about Mandy.
That's the thing I'm pondering about. Firth's sudden change of stance makes me think that either he's lying, either he got a direct message from a god. In both cases, I assume that means he was recruited. Problem I see now is that it's a way too elaborate and beyond crazy ploy for Mandy to pull if he wasn't what he said, and there might be a good reason for the satan side to want Mandy to shut up definitely. Enough a trade off to put Firth on the line? Not sure, but an element in that sense is that Firth couldn't act like a good little neutral cop anymore, and make us lynch bad guys indefinitely. So yeah, I have my doubts on this, especially since I find Mandy believable.

I'm not the same opinion that firth4eva was recruited by satan. Firth said "mandy is scum" almost at the end of the day 2, after about 1 week later day 2 started. Satan wouldn't have waited 1 week to recruit him and firth wouldn't have made his announcement so late. Highly probable he got some more information somehow.

ga7 wrote:But from what I see, Mandy supposedly got in touch in some way with the other pony hunters. He might be confusing people, but I'm sure he's helping a ton this group right now. Suppose that scum noticed that, and want to know the other guys all at once: easy, they'd reveal themselves if Mandy is in danger. It might be far fetched, but less than Mandy pulling this huge a stunt, added to that a bluff about other people knowing him... Nah, at this point there's too much in favor of the existence of the pony hunters. Mandy does crazy things ok, but I can't see how he would gain an advantage as scum doing that right now. And if he's really BSing us, well that'd be the first time I don't see it
Anyway, bottom line I might have bought Firth's result if he did it at the beginning of the day, now I really doubt it.

Case a) firth is telling the truth > mandy is scum
Case b) firth is lying > mandy is not scum > means that firth is scum and very highly probable AD is also scum.

Conclusion: If we lynch mandy and found out he is not scum, than we will have two mafia in hand for sure !!

jnd94 wrote:....

I have decided to lift the 3 day time limit becuase it seems we are getting somewhere. However, becuase of the upcoming holidays, if this doesn't go quicker, and time limit will be enforced.

mandalorian2298 wrote:
firth4eva wrote:Announcement

Mandy is scum. That is the only part of the message I can reveal.

unvote vote mandy
The sheer number of people who know that I am on the size of good will make the lynch pretty tough order to fill.

Nobody else claims until I am at Lynch -1.

Also note that Firth is trying to win a No lynch for the Scum by spliting votes this close to the deadline.

My vote stays on AD.

Mod: if you are going to be all deadliney, you might try to update Vote Counts regulary.

Two observations

1) mandy skims: jnd already lifted time limit, before firth wrote "mandy is scum", so firth was not trying to split votes
2) mandy tries to avoid votes on himself by simply stating lynching him would be tough. In other words he can easily counter argue against those who will vote him that they are mafia.

After all above conclusions I will follow the Cop's announcement and see the result and vote accordingly next day.

Unvote
Vote mandy

.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:27 pm

freezie wrote: Not exactly, since firth claimed 3rd party.

So what does that mean? That you don't trust Firth?

The only conclusion I can draw from Firth's frontal attack on Mandy is that at least one of them has to be bad for town.

mandalorian2298 · Post by **mandalorian2298** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:34 pm

firth4eva wrote:Would I really be that stupid mandy?

If I was scum why would I risk myself when almost everyone is guaranteed I am town, just to split the votes?

Would you be how stupid?

No, you accused me, obviously because you either want to lynch me or you want to split votes and score a No Lynch. I just told you why it's not going to work (well, there is also the way that Jnd counts the votes

).

Seriously guys, I think that we should lynch either AD or SL. I suggest that we leave Firth alone for now on an of chance that he is a Jester (Martyr?) or something. Also, if the bad guys are recruiting, perhaps Firth is just a recruited pawn. If this is so, then his willingness to sacrifice himself might indicate that either SL or AD is a prime catch.

spinwizard · Post by **spinwizard** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:43 pm

I started following the thread on sunday...

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:54 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote: or you want to split votes and score a No Lynch.

Ehm.. no. As has already been pointed out to you by somebody else, there is currently no deadline and therefore no split votes scenario.