Eventual WW3

[Gillipig]

Hi all you Conquers out there I have a vision about the future, here it is!

If there will be a WW3 I belive it will start in southeast asia. Here's why;

China is dependent of wast watersupplies to sustain their population. But also for energi (dams), and food (Irrigation). If theese watersupplies are threatened China as a nation are threatened!

A big part of chinas rivers reach the shore (and thereby the people) only because of the continous flow of meltwater from the Himalayas. which has increased the last 30 years. Fact is that right now Chinas rivers are large enough to use for irragation and dams only because they get more water than what's normal. And that may seem like a good thing for China, but it's the opposite. The extra water they get now should be laying on the mountains as glacier and cool of the warm clouds that sweep up from india, so that they too become part of the glaciers. Why? Because these glaciers melts during summer and give Chinas population water and if too much of the glaciers melts there won't be enough to cool down the warm indian clouds! Resulting in that no new glaciers are being created. And then there won't be any boast of the much needed water. Which in turn definetly destroys all chinas irrigations. Dams will not be able to be used because of the lack of water, and about 200 million people in China will have to live in areas whithout freshwater!
A lot of scientists even say that it's to late to stop this catastrofy from happening.
But lets get back to China.

Now what will chinas goverment do when this happends, well while they are thirsting and starving to death in china, the subtropic countries below: Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Laos aren't being too affected, The Monsoon-rain is as frequent in theese countries as sunrise in the morning! China desperatly needs thoose favorble areas. and have got an abundans of starving humans to use for war. Their military technologi is and will be strong enough to run over thoose countries multiple times. And this is the sparkle I think could set off WW3. In about 15 years. Thats how long time scientists belive it will take before the himalayas is glacier free. Which we all now know what that means.

I would like to know if anyone can come up with a better WW3 scenario than this. Or if you got an opinion on my scenario!

[MeDeFe]

When it comes someone'll make a map about it, wherever it may be.

[AndyDufresne]

Moved on over.


--Andy

[Zeppflyer]

What is happening over in India at this point? Are they seeing water problems in the mega-cities of the north? Sheer population pressure is going to force them to do something eventually and China will not sit by and let them become lords of SE Asia.

(Let's just hope Bean can save us.)

As to the above, I have to think (And hope, and pray, and invest) that greater and greater strain on the water supplies of the cities of the American South and the continuing depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer will have the US well down the path of comercial desalinization at that point. At which point, we will hopefully be able to export said tech world-wide. If we don't, the smarter Persian Gulf states (which have diversified economies able to suvive the oil bust) will.

[Gillipig]

I would rather expect India to be the counterpole of China in that area, I don't think they would start something like that, And their lack of water is restricted to poor areas, and thoose areas have been more or less unfruitfull throughout their entire history, But in China big modern cities with growing economy is being threatned in a jump rather than a slowely natural process. If it would be a war. one thing is for surtend, US and Europe will not support the regions with anything other than weapons and supply! The experience of Vietnam told us that it's nearly impossible to fight in that area against a heavy militarised guerilla, Imagine fighting against China! China is one of thoose countries that you just don't fight against. Because they are to big. Unless they are directly assaulting western countries, we are never going to engage in war against them!
But India is in another position, they have China at their doorstep! And they have almost as big population as China. India will probably be the only one possibly force standing in chinas way.

Interesting with desalinization, that actually could solve at least a lot of Chinas water issues, it's not like they haven't got saltwater!

[Zeppflyer]

India's population is rapidly catching up with that of China. China's greater urbanization and the 'success' of their one child per couple programs have given them a rate of population growth of .63% compared to India at 1.58% according to the CIA. (US = .88 which is very high for a first world nation.) At this rate, they will catch up in a few years.

Of course, your average Indian has much lower expectation of what he wants materially than the average Chinese person which will make internal tension over resources take longer to become an issue. However, India's land area and agricultural output is only about 1/3 of China's, which will push them over the edge into complete insustainability much sooner.

Interestingly (and sadly), one thing that is likely to taper off India's growth in coming years is the proliferation of ultrasound. Indian culture vastly perfers male children to females and as more and more couples have access to it, many are aborting female children. This will lead to a massive imbalance in sex ratios in coming years. What it may also result in is a group of frustrated young males ready and raring to put on a uniform to impress increasingly scarce women. (Or to facilitate taking women by other means.)

[GabonX]

Hi all you Conquers out there I have a vision about the future, here it is!

If there will be a WW3 I belive it will start in southeast asia. Here's why;

China is dependent of wast watersupplies to sustain their population. But also for energi (dams), and food (Irrigation). If theese watersupplies are threatened China as a nation are threatened!

A big part of chinas rivers reach the shore (and thereby the people) only because of the continous flow of meltwater from the Himalayas. which has increased the last 30 years. Fact is that right now Chinas rivers are large enough to use for irragation and dams only because they get more water than what's normal. And that may seem like a good thing for China, but it's the opposite. The extra water they get now should be laying on the mountains as glacier and cool of the warm clouds that sweep up from india, so that they too become part of the glaciers. Why? Because these glaciers melts during summer and give Chinas population water and if too much of the glaciers melts there won't be enough to cool down the warm indian clouds! Resulting in that no new glaciers are being created. And then there won't be any boast of the much needed water. Which in turn definetly destroys all chinas irrigations. Dams will not be able to be used because of the lack of water, and about 200 million people in China will have to live in areas whithout freshwater!
A lot of scientists even say that it's to late to stop this catastrofy from happening.
But lets get back to China.

Now what will chinas goverment do when this happends, well while they are thirsting and starving to death in china, the subtropic countries below: Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Laos aren't being too affected, The Monsoon-rain is as frequent in theese countries as sunrise in the morning! China desperatly needs thoose favorble areas. and have got an abundans of starving humans to use for war. Their military technologi is and will be strong enough to run over thoose countries multiple times. And this is the sparkle I think could set off WW3. In about 15 years. Thats how long time scientists belive it will take before the himalayas is glacier free. Which we all now know what that means.

I would like to know if anyone can come up with a better WW3 scenario than this. Or if you got an opinion on my scenario!

It's impossible to predict what will start the next great war as there are problems in many parts of the world. What makes you think this would escalate beyond being just a regional asian war, ie what would drag the rest of the world in to it?

[Gillipig]

As I wrote later, I do not beleive that the western world will engage with troops, but I do belive that India will, Maybe I'm wrong but a war between two countries each with populations over 1 billion people is not just a war! it's a World War, it would be the biggest, most devastating and horrible war our planet ever seen. If nearly a third of the worlds total population is engaged in a war, it doesn't matter if they aren't activly taking sides in the rest of the world.

[Gillipig]

India's population is rapidly catching up with that of China. China's greater urbanization and the 'success' of their one child per couple programs have given them a rate of population growth of .63% compared to India at 1.58% according to the CIA. (US = .88 which is very high for a first world nation.) At this rate, they will catch up in a few years.

Of course, your average Indian has much lower expectation of what he wants materially than the average Chinese person which will make internal tension over resources take longer to become an issue. However, India's land area and agricultural output is only about 1/3 of China's, which will push them over the edge into complete insustainability much sooner.

Interestingly (and sadly), one thing that is likely to taper off India's growth in coming years is the proliferation of ultrasound. Indian culture vastly perfers male children to females and as more and more couples have access to it, many are aborting female children. This will lead to a massive imbalance in sex ratios in coming years. What it may also result in is a group of frustrated young males ready and raring to put on a uniform to impress increasingly scarce women. (Or to facilitate taking women by other means.)

Sounds like the situation they have in China.

Imagine all these frustrated young males both from India and China. And add to it a strong tension between theese two countries and It's easy to imagine what they might take their frustration out on! (each other)

[obliterationX]

Yay, a chance for a new map !!!

[bbqpenguin]

As I wrote later, I do not beleive that the western world will engage with troops, but I do belive that India will, Maybe I'm wrong but a war between two countries each with populations over 1 billion people is not just a war! it's a World War, it would be the biggest, most devastating and horrible war our planet ever seen. If nearly a third of the worlds total population is engaged in a war, it doesn't matter if they aren't activly taking sides in the rest of the world.

i think in order for it to qualify as a 'world war', more than two major neighboring countries need to be involved. otherwise it's just a 'regional war'. also, i think that in a couple decades or so we will look back on the current 'global war on terror' as WW3

[Gillipig]

As I wrote later, I do not beleive that the western world will engage with troops, but I do belive that India will, Maybe I'm wrong but a war between two countries each with populations over 1 billion people is not just a war! it's a World War, it would be the biggest, most devastating and horrible war our planet ever seen. If nearly a third of the worlds total population is engaged in a war, it doesn't matter if they aren't activly taking sides in the rest of the world.

i think in order for it to qualify as a 'world war', more than two major neighboring countries need to be involved. otherwise it's just a 'regional war'. also, i think that in a couple decades or so we will look back on the current 'global war on terror' as WW3

A regional war Greater than the two previous WW combined would be a more fitting description! First of all war against terror is not even a war! It's called "terror" because it can't be described as a war, It's a rebellion from fanatical military islamists who a lot of people suspect are leaderless, and thereby is controlled by individual cells acting whithout coordination, It aint on the same map, would fight against maffia, drugdealers and other sorts of crimes be discribed as world wars only because they occur everywhere on earth.

This "regional war" would be a WW if Russia dicided to cease balticum while the world have their eyes on SE, which ain't to unrealistic.

[Joodoo]

well I would say that there are two big reasons why a world war 3 could start up and as you already mentioned, water is going to be a factor, the second one I think is intensification of the Arab-Israeli conflict

[Juan_Bottom]

well I would say that there are two big reasons why a world war 3 could start up and as you already mentioned, water is going to be a factor, the second one I think is intensification of the Arab-Israeli conflict

Israel can't do anything unless the US aproves it. And the American public will not stand for such a thing.

So long as we are spitballing here, if WWIII were to come around, it would most likely be started by Russia, not China. China's army is built more for defense, rather than attack, It's just not mobile enough. And the Chinese economy cannnot afford any great war.
Russia has however recently THREATENED war with NATO over the Georgian conflict. And ment it too, because NATO backed off pretty quickly. They have also openly talked about a renewed Cold War with the US & the west. In fact, the commander of the Russian Navel Fleet sent to Venezuela said "It's time to give a big middle finger to the Americans."
Plus Russia has again engaged talks with Cuba to build a "missle defense network" on Cuban soil. You all know that the last time they did that we were less than an hour away from launching.
Basically, it breaks down like this. The western bankers and businessmen that control our politicians have somehow become enemies with Russia and Iran. China has allied herself with Russia and Iran, but only to prevent a world war. China's economy is too dependant on the west. Russian TV has blamed the global financial crisis sole-y on America. They've had to devalue the Rubble about 15(?) times, so that obviously angers the Russian people. Russian state TV has already been waging a propaganda war for years.
And India is far too busy with the Pakistani border (but obviously not to busy to defend herself). That nation is close to collapse.
There's obviously more to this but it's boring for me.

[Zeppflyer]

So long as we are spitballing here, if WWIII were to come around, it would most likely be started by Russia, not China. China's army is built more for defense, rather than attack, It's just not mobile enough. And the Chinese economy cannnot afford any great war.
Russia has however recently THREATENED war with NATO over the Georgian conflict. And ment it too, because NATO backed off pretty quickly. They have also openly talked about a renewed Cold War with the US & the west. In fact, the commander of the Russian Navel Fleet sent to Venezuela said "It's time to give a big middle finger to the Americans."[/quote]

I have to disagree about Russia's capabilities. Invading Georgia was no great logistics challenge. They could not support anything bigger. Since oil tanked, their economy has been in freefall. If that doesn't turn around soon, they aren't going to have enough left to hold the counrty together, let alone fight any offensive wars. The recent moves have just been blustering while they still can.

[Gillipig]

well I would say that there are two big reasons why a world war 3 could start up and as you already mentioned, water is going to be a factor, the second one I think is intensification of the Arab-Israeli conflict

Israel can't do anything unless the US aproves it. And the American public will not stand for such a thing.

So long as we are spitballing here, if WWIII were to come around, it would most likely be started by Russia, not China. China's army is built more for defense, rather than attack, It's just not mobile enough. And the Chinese economy cannnot afford any great war.
Russia has however recently THREATENED war with NATO over the Georgian conflict. And ment it too, because NATO backed off pretty quickly. They have also openly talked about a renewed Cold War with the US & the west. In fact, the commander of the Russian Navel Fleet sent to Venezuela said "It's time to give a big middle finger to the Americans."
Plus Russia has again engaged talks with Cuba to build a "missle defense network" on Cuban soil. You all know that the last time they did that we were less than an hour away from launching.
Basically, it breaks down like this. The western bankers and businessmen that control our politicians have somehow become enemies with Russia and Iran. China has allied herself with Russia and Iran, but only to prevent a world war. China's economy is too dependant on the west. Russian TV has blamed the global financial crisis sole-y on America. They've had to devalue the Rubble about 15(?) times, so that obviously angers the Russian people. Russian state TV has already been waging a propaganda war for years.
And India is far too busy with the Pakistani border (but obviously not to busy to defend herself). That nation is close to collapse.
There's obviously more to this but it's boring for me.

I don't think Russia is gonna start anything unless there is a bigger thing going on somewhere else. What they did in Georgia was only trying to say this (in their own primitive way) " we are ready, we still have our own politic, and we aren't harmless"

By the way I don't think it was the businessmen who started that groll, (you can blame the businessmen for a lot but not that. ha) factors like different ideologis is probably responsible for that.
I think you understimate chinas need to make a mark in history, they are impressed of what Russia have accomplished, and would like to make themselves known for things Russia is known for, coldblood, brutality, and complete dominans over their own population and their neighbouring countries!

PS If you think it's a such a boring subject, why do you write 25 sentences?

[Juan_Bottom]

I have to disagree about Russia's capabilities. Invading Georgia was no great logistics challenge. They could not support anything bigger. Since oil tanked, their economy has been in freefall. If that doesn't turn around soon, they aren't going to have enough left to hold the counrty together, let alone fight any offensive wars. The recent moves have just been blustering while they still can.

Says the guy saying China would start something?
You could say the same of almost any economy in the world, except perhaps a few Arab Nations.
The Russian government actually has been taking steps to survive any global financial crisis, albiet they are moving slowly. They are pulling out the world bank, and putting their investment into Iran's Oil bank. Basically they are pulling out of the American paper standard and into real Raw Materials. So as this crisis gets worse, Russia gets hit hard too, but they are in better shape financially than most of todays global economic powers, due to the fact that they have real assets and not paper ones.
In fact, it's Russia support of the Oil Bank that put us in this world crisis that we are in right now. If you believe...
And I should say Russia may have only invaded Georgia, but they threatened (vocaly) to invade all of Europe. People don't seem to recognize that. And I know the media didn't talk about it. But it does show that they are prepared to bite.

I don't think Russia is gonna start anything unless there is a bigger thing going on somewhere else. What they did in Georgia was only trying to say this (in their own primitive way) " we are ready, we still have our own politic, and we aren't harmless"

I don't believe that. What Russia did in Georgia was protect it's citizens and as a side bonus, stopped Georgia from allowing an American Missle Defense system being built there.

By the way I don't think it was the businessmen who started that groll, (you can blame the businessmen for a lot but not that. ha) factors like different ideologis is probably responsible for that.

Ideologies like being rich is the best! The price of oil today (if you believe) is being controlled by western nations. And it is hurting Russia, and the OPEC nations. It's just widening the rift between the Russia and the West.

And again, that's to leave out several statements from the Russians that "this is between the US and us," the new Cuban Missle Crisis, and the vow of the Russian Government of a return as the world power this decade. I mean come on, they openly threatened war with NATO, that's a huge deal.

I think you understimate chinas need to make a mark in history, they are impressed of what Russia have accomplished, and would like to make themselves known for things Russia is known for, coldblood, brutality, and complete dominans over their own population and their neighbouring countries!

I don't doubt China's capabilities or anything like that. Indeed China has been rapidly building and upgrading her navy in recent years. She has been building many new submarines... She probably has a Navy similer to the German Navy of WWII, one that depends heavily on submarines.
But still her army is immobile. It's important to remember! How do you wage a war with a huge army that has to walk everywhere?
And I'm not saying her army is a joke, but it is also a national labor pool. Many places that do not have snowplows use the army to clear roads...
Dirt roads.
But that is beside the point. China has purchased so much foriegn debt that any world war with the west would instantly bankrupt her. And she's allied with everyone else. So what do you do? She can't fight us without being bankrupted, and she can't fight Russia or the Arab nations or the South American Nations without attacking her own allies. If China ever wages a war in my lifetime, it will either be becuase China was somehow attacked, or it will be an economic/financial war.

PS If you think it's a such a boring subject, why do you write 25 sentences?

I could have written a book.

[Joodoo]

I have to disagree about Russia's capabilities. Invading Georgia was no great logistics challenge. They could not support anything bigger. Since oil tanked, their economy has been in freefall. If that doesn't turn around soon, they aren't going to have enough left to hold the counrty together, let alone fight any offensive wars. The recent moves have just been blustering while they still can.

Says the guy saying China would start something?
You could say the same of almost any economy in the world, except perhaps a few Arab Nations.
The Russian government actually has been taking steps to survive any global financial crisis, albiet they are moving slowly. They are pulling out the world bank, and putting their investment into Iran's Oil bank. Basically they are pulling out of the American paper standard and into real Raw Materials. So as this crisis gets worse, Russia gets hit hard too, but they are in better shape financially than most of todays global economic powers, due to the fact that they have real assets and not paper ones.
In fact, it's Russia support of the Oil Bank that put us in this world crisis that we are in right now. If you believe...
And I should say Russia may have only invaded Georgia, but they threatened (vocaly) to invade all of Europe. People don't seem to recognize that. And I know the media didn't talk about it. But it does show that they are prepared to bite.

I don't think Russia is gonna start anything unless there is a bigger thing going on somewhere else. What they did in Georgia was only trying to say this (in their own primitive way) " we are ready, we still have our own politic, and we aren't harmless"

I don't believe that. What Russia did in Georgia was protect it's citizens and as a side bonus, stopped Georgia from allowing an American Missle Defense system being built there.

By the way I don't think it was the businessmen who started that groll, (you can blame the businessmen for a lot but not that. ha) factors like different ideologis is probably responsible for that.

Ideologies like being rich is the best! The price of oil today (if you believe) is being controlled by western nations. And it is hurting Russia, and the OPEC nations. It's just widening the rift between the Russia and the West.

And again, that's to leave out several statements from the Russians that "this is between the US and us," the new Cuban Missle Crisis, and the vow of the Russian Government of a return as the world power this decade. I mean come on, they openly threatened war with NATO, that's a huge deal.

I think you understimate chinas need to make a mark in history, they are impressed of what Russia have accomplished, and would like to make themselves known for things Russia is known for, coldblood, brutality, and complete dominans over their own population and their neighbouring countries!

I don't doubt China's capabilities or anything like that. Indeed China has been rapidly building and upgrading her navy in recent years. She has been building many new submarines... She probably has a Navy similer to the German Navy of WWII, one that depends heavily on submarines.
But still her army is immobile. It's important to remember! How do you wage a war with a huge army that has to walk everywhere?
And I'm not saying her army is a joke, but it is also a national labor pool. Many places that do not have snowplows use the army to clear roads...
Dirt roads.
But that is beside the point. China has purchased so much foriegn debt that any world war with the west would instantly bankrupt her. And she's allied with everyone else. So what do you do? She can't fight us without being bankrupted, and she can't fight Russia or the Arab nations or the South American Nations without attacking her own allies. If China ever wages a war in my lifetime, it will either be becuase China was somehow attacked, or it will be an economic/financial war.

PS If you think it's a such a boring subject, why do you write 25 sentences?

I could have written a book.

I do agree with you on China being in involved in another possible world war only if provoked. After all, it's not trying to piss off the the US or Russia.

[Gillipig]

I have to disagree about Russia's capabilities. Invading Georgia was no great logistics challenge. They could not support anything bigger. Since oil tanked, their economy has been in freefall. If that doesn't turn around soon, they aren't going to have enough left to hold the counrty together, let alone fight any offensive wars. The recent moves have just been blustering while they still can.

Says the guy saying China would start something?
You could say the same of almost any economy in the world, except perhaps a few Arab Nations.

Just a correction, That about China was my statement!

I don't think Russia is gonna start anything unless there is a bigger thing going on somewhere else. What they did in Georgia was only trying to say this (in their own primitive way) " we are ready, we still have our own politic, and we aren't harmless"

I don't believe that. What Russia did in Georgia was protect it's citizens and as a side bonus, stopped Georgia from allowing an American Missle Defense system being built there.
And again, that's to leave out several statements from the Russians that "this is between the US and us," the new Cuban Missle Crisis, and the vow of the Russian Government of a return as the world power this decade. I mean come on, they openly threatened war with NATO, that's a huge deal.

I'm swedish, and during the cold war Russia frequently simulated air attacks towards us only to see how quick we responded with war planes, (they wanted to see how far they could get before they met resistens). All this crap that comes out of there mouths resently could be looked at in a similar way. If someone has the guts to stand up against them and call their bluff, they would emidiatly back down! They are testing us and they would never, belive me never even think of assaulting Europe in the situation we have today, The western world is in a financial crisis, but Russia is too in this crisis. They haven't got a serious ally, China as you said before is for the moment not capable of assaulting anything except their on people (sad really), The russians is belive it or not great strategists, and it's as likely that they attack Europe, as it is that the U.S attack Russia!

I think you understimate chinas need to make a mark in history, they are impressed of what Russia have accomplished, and would like to make themselves known for things Russia is known for, coldblood, brutality, and complete dominans over their own population and their neighbouring countries!

I don't doubt China's capabilities or anything like that. Indeed China has been rapidly building and upgrading her navy in recent years. She has been building many new submarines... She probably has a Navy similer to the German Navy of WWII, one that depends heavily on submarines.
But still her army is immobile. It's important to remember! How do you wage a war with a huge army that has to walk everywhere?

I wouldn't put limits on what china can do in 15 years from now (wich this article is all about),
just look at Germany 15 years before WW2 and you'll see that I'm right, I'm pretty sure chinas army will be up to standards by then!

PS If you think it's a such a boring subject, why do you write 25 sentences?

I could have written a book.

Only one? I could have written seven! Just kidding you, but if you do write a book, (very likely) let me know, I can read 1000 pages in a weekend (not pocket books), in english, and that's good because it's not even my mother language, imagine reading that much that fast and still ge everything in french! or swedish!

[Zeppflyer]

I have to disagree about Russia's capabilities. Invading Georgia was no great logistics challenge. They could not support anything bigger. Since oil tanked, their economy has been in freefall. If that doesn't turn around soon, they aren't going to have enough left to hold the counrty together, let alone fight any offensive wars. The recent moves have just been blustering while they still can.]

Says the guy saying China would start something?
You could say the same of almost any economy in the world, except perhaps a few Arab Nations.
The Russian government actually has been taking steps to survive any global financial crisis, albiet they are moving slowly. They are pulling out the world bank, and putting their investment into Iran's Oil bank. Basically they are pulling out of the American paper standard and into real Raw Materials. So as this crisis gets worse, Russia gets hit hard too, but they are in better shape financially than most of todays global economic powers, due to the fact that they have real assets and not paper ones.
In fact, it's Russia support of the Oil Bank that put us in this world crisis that we are in right now. If you believe...
And I should say Russia may have only invaded Georgia, but they threatened (vocaly) to invade all of Europe. People don't seem to recognize that. And I know the media didn't talk about it. But it does show that they are prepared to bite.

[/quote]

Right now is a great time to buy commodities, I'll grant. They're all in the tank. But Russia effectively did this years ago as oil ran up higher and higher. Now their economy is dependent on it. As prices have fallen, they've seen the same issues as Venezuela who's government is getting more and more teetery every day as Chavez can't pay for his bread, circuses, and security. This massive loss of income, combined with little to no infrastructure investment over the last few years (outside of things dedicated to moving oil), and one of the most rapidly aging and shrinking populations on the planet means that Russia will soon not be capable of anything.

Talking big is the Russian nature, especially for men like Putin and Medved who build their images on being strong men. Do you really think that Russia would have gone to war with NATO? Could they have really supported it? I say that their recent agressions are simply a bluff. They are more than prepared to bark, but I doubt them willing or able to bite in any meaningful way.

[Gillipig]

Just the thought of Russia doing a such a bold and stupid move is ridiculus!

[Juan_Bottom]

Talking big is the Russian nature, especially for men like Putin and Medved who build their images on being strong men. Do you really think that Russia would have gone to war with NATO? Could they have really supported it? I say that their recent agressions are simply a bluff. They are more than prepared to bark, but I doubt them willing or able to bite in any meaningful way.

You're forgetting that Russia has the world's second largest military budget. And in a "per citizen" calculation, they have a larger military budget than the US. Plus billions in Cold War stockpiles.

And yes, I do really think that they would have gone to war with NATO. They were mobilised and chased even the US out of and away from Georgia. They confiscated American Humvees and supplies as they were being evacuated from Georgia. 100 years ago that alone would have started a war. Either way, NATO took them quite seriously.

Plus you have to be aware that wars are not started by being quite about your feelings. China, India, no other nation in the world has such a propaganda machine aimed at anyone. Save Venezuela and a few African Nations... And both Russia and China have already sent several squadrons of fighter/fighter-bombers to Venezuela.

I'm just saying Russia is the nation making all of the noise. And they are the only nation with the might to challenge the US-Mexico-Canada-NATO alliance(Mexico and Canada have signed a joint defense agreement with the US). And again, they are putting all their American dollars into the Oil Bank. Which is not only a challenge to America's wealth, but also a very real threat to her power. It's saying "we have no confidence in your dollar as the world standard, we want to replace it." If you believe, this is the exact reason why the price of oil has gone down so much. Western nations are striking back. And if our dollar does crash, we'll be broke as a joke while Russia still has some income.

The point being, if a war comes, it probably would be instigated by Russia.
And for personal thought, if depression comes, war may seem like a viable way to end it. Or at least it will let some nations feel bold enough to pick at America and GB's empires.

[Zeppflyer]

Talking big is the Russian nature, especially for men like Putin and Medved who build their images on being strong men. Do you really think that Russia would have gone to war with NATO? Could they have really supported it? I say that their recent agressions are simply a bluff. They are more than prepared to bark, but I doubt them willing or able to bite in any meaningful way.

You're forgetting that Russia has the world's second largest military budget. And in a "per citizen" calculation, they have a larger military budget than the US. Plus billions in Cold War stockpiles.

And yes, I do really think that they would have gone to war with NATO. They were mobilised and chased even the US out of and away from Georgia. They confiscated American Humvees and supplies as they were being evacuated from Georgia. 100 years ago that alone would have started a war. Either way, NATO took them quite seriously.

Plus you have to be aware that wars are not started by being quite about your feelings. China, India, no other nation in the world has such a propaganda machine aimed at anyone. Save Venezuela and a few African Nations... And both Russia and China have already sent several squadrons of fighter/fighter-bombers to Venezuela.

I'm just saying Russia is the nation making all of the noise. And they are the only nation with the might to challenge the US-Mexico-Canada-NATO alliance(Mexico and Canada have signed a joint defense agreement with the US). And again, they are putting all their American dollars into the Oil Bank. Which is not only a challenge to America's wealth, but also a very real threat to her power. It's saying "we have no confidence in your dollar as the world standard, we want to replace it." If you believe, this is the exact reason why the price of oil has gone down so much. Western nations are striking back. And if our dollar does crash, we'll be broke as a joke while Russia still has some income.

The point being, if a war comes, it probably would be instigated by Russia.
And for personal thought, if depression comes, war may seem like a viable way to end it. Or at least it will let some nations feel bold enough to pick at America and GB's empires.

Russia may have the 2nd largest budget and many legacy systems right now, but with the collapse of their economy and the aging of their population, there is no way that they can maintain it. You think the Social Security issue is bad here? Look at them. Far higher (and growing!) proportion of elderly people and ones who expect entitlements that are the legacy of a socialist mother state.

Their hardware is, by and large, aging and falling apart. Remember the Kursk? And where are they going to get any more? We won't be selling ours. Neither will anyone else in Europe. Design their own? They are suffering huge a brain drain of smart engineers running to the West.

Point is, maybe they could do something big and destructive if they did it right now, but in a couple of years, the bear will have gelded itself. My concern is that their attempts to maintain a superpower military on the world's 8th biggest economy (Roughly 1/8th the size of ours) will force drastic social upheval where a gradual drawdown would not.

[Gillipig]

What Juan_Bottom seems to ignore is that Russia is not selfdependent, and a war against Nato would be a economical deathpenalty for them!
It simple costs more then it could possibly generate to attack countries who your market is dependent of.This is one of the two biggest factors to why war between superpowers is not taking place today. The second is nuclear weapon! It's not that we have becomed more civilized, the human nature haven't changed over 50 years. But if (or rather when) the world gets poorer, theese primitive sides get out in the open again. One reason why I think China is more likely to start a WW then Russia is, (because that's what this discussion focuses on) that they are overpopulated, Russia isn't, the driving force to expand is bigger when you don't have enough space. You're right about that Russia is making all the noise, but so is small dogs, you can't really judge if a country is ready to explode by who much it barks, if you can draw any conclusion it's that it's the quite ones you should be aware of!

The biggest reason to why the price of oil is rising, is that we have pumped up as much as we can for over 50 years, and it's simply running out. Sometimes the simplest reasons are thoose closest to the truth.

Finally a quote that I'm very fond of wich was originally said in swedish "All the knowledge we have today and think of as obvious, was previously questioned and looked with contempt upon. The believes of the majority is seldom true"

[Juan_Bottom]

What Juan_Bottom seems to ignore is that Russia is not self-dependent, and a war against Nato would be a economical deathpenalty for them!

I am very aware that Russia sells it's Oil and Gas to Europe!

The biggest reason to why the price of oil is rising, is that we have pumped up as much as we can for over 50 years, and it's simply running out. Sometimes the simplest reasons are those closest to the truth.

I'm talking about the current falling price of oil and oil investments, and the damage it's doing to the OPEC nations, and other nations like Russia. The reason they are raising the price to begin with. Iran's oil revenues are down 75% from the late 80s. The power of OPEC is waining.... but it's not because they are out of oil.

It simple costs more then it could possibly generate to attack countries who your market is dependent of.

It sounds to me like Russia isn't interested in war with NATO. But it wouldn't back down from one. Russia wants a Cold War/real war with the US.

One reason why I think China is more likely to start a WW then Russia is,

But she doesn't have anyone to attack? She's allied with Russia... Japan and Korea are allied with the US... India has a relationship with the US, but no true obligations. But India is an emerging power herself (don't laugh). And India has the bomb?

Their hardware is, by and large, aging and falling apart. Remember the Kursk? And where are they going to get any more? We won't be selling ours. Neither will anyone else in Europe. Design their own? They are suffering huge a brain drain of smart engineers running to the West.

They actually do have a pretty modern Navy. They are currently showing off their Pacific Fleet in the Carribean about 90 miles off the coast of Florida.
And I don't think it's an accurate point to say that their hardware is decaying. They have been rebuilding since the mid 90s.

Point is, maybe they could do something big and destructive if they did it right now, but in a couple of years, the bear will have gelded itself. My concern is that their attempts to maintain a superpower military on the world's 8th biggest economy (Roughly 1/8th the size of ours) will force drastic social upheval where a gradual drawdown would not.

I'm telling you guys, if the crisis gets any worse Russia will be sitting pretty.
Besides, the Russian people seem pretty unified in their anti-Americanism. Ribbed on by the Russian State media.