Eventual WW3

[Gillipig]

I will make a good comment on this tommorow! It's sleepy time in Sweden now!

[Gillipig]

What Juan_Bottom seems to ignore is that Russia is not self-dependent, and a war against Nato would be a economical deathpenalty for them!

I am very aware that Russia sells it's Oil and Gas to Europe!

The biggest reason to why the price of oil is rising, is that we have pumped up as much as we can for over 50 years, and it's simply running out. Sometimes the simplest reasons are those closest to the truth.

I'm talking about the current falling price of oil and oil investments, and the damage it's doing to the OPEC nations, and other nations like Russia. The reason they are raising the price to begin with. Iran's oil revenues are down 75% from the late 80s. The power of OPEC is waining.... but it's not because they are out of oil.

It simple costs more then it could possibly generate to attack countries who your market is dependent of.

It sounds to me like Russia isn't interested in war with NATO. But it wouldn't back down from one. Russia wants a Cold War/real war with the US.

One reason why I think China is more likely to start a WW then Russia is,

But she doesn't have anyone to attack? She's allied with Russia... Japan and Korea are allied with the US... India has a relationship with the US, but no true obligations. But India is an emerging power herself (don't laugh). And India has the bomb?

Their hardware is, by and large, aging and falling apart. Remember the Kursk? And where are they going to get any more? We won't be selling ours. Neither will anyone else in Europe. Design their own? They are suffering huge a brain drain of smart engineers running to the West.

They actually do have a pretty modern Navy. They are currently showing off their Pacific Fleet in the Carribean about 90 miles off the coast of Florida.
And I don't think it's an accurate point to say that their hardware is decaying. They have been rebuilding since the mid 90s.

Point is, maybe they could do something big and destructive if they did it right now, but in a couple of years, the bear will have gelded itself. My concern is that their attempts to maintain a superpower military on the world's 8th biggest economy (Roughly 1/8th the size of ours) will force drastic social upheval where a gradual drawdown would not.

I'm telling you guys, if the crisis gets any worse Russia will be sitting pretty.
Besides, the Russian people seem pretty unified in their anti-Americanism. Ribbed on by the Russian State media.

Russia are not only dependent of export! they are also dependent of importing food through the Black Sea, wich the western world can stop through seazing Turkey.

Iv'e heard that about oil prices are high because of the greed of Middleast countries before!But I'm not convinced, I still think it's more because of the more nonconspiracy reason, lack of oil!

Russia is definitely aware of that the damage being done in a war against Nato is going to be felt most for them, but yes they put there pride high, but not that high I believe. And hope!

China does have countries to attack, countries that they are interested in, thoose I mentioned In the first post and Taiwan.
A lot of countries have the bomb, Northkorea, Israel, Pakistan to mention some, but I believe
They have enough to do with there own country, (Not Northkorea though, it's pretty clear wich country they are interested in)
And China have better bonds with Russia than any country, Who would notice if they got something through the border?

Anti america is the image the russian goverment is giving us, the people aren't that hostile, remember that they first cheered when Hitler attacked them during WW2!
Just think of all thoose non fearful reporters that fall out of windows all the time, a clear indication that the russian goverment have a hard time keeping their people down.

Sorry if it's a bit messy but I'm really bad att quoting!

[wolfram15]

A couple things about the military powers of China, Russia, and the U.S. Like many have said, China has virtually insurmountable defensive capabilities but no offensive abilities (besides overrunning SE Asia, but that would be it). So China could easily defend itself on the ground, but couldn't really attack. For Russia: for the entire Cold war, the only thing that kept the USSR from rolling over Europe was the threat of nuclear retaliation from the U.S. NATO's ground forces could not hope to stop the ground forces, and the Soviet airforce could provide adequate air support. While NATO's sea capabilities greatly outclassed the Soviet Navy, the various fleets could protect the small amount of coastline that really mattered (Black Sea, enough of the Baltic and very northern Atlantic). That is no longer the case. The Russian military is only a shadow of the Soviet one. The once formidable fleet of submarines is now rusting, Russia lacks truly offensive air power, and aside from a few modern divisions that have a fighting chance at the best NATO has to offer, the vast majority of the Russian army is made of irregular troops using equipment from the 50's and 60's. Combine very modern Western European armies, a largely obsolete Russian army, and NATO's air force-which makes any other in the world look like a joke, NATO could likely beat Russia in a land war for the first time since the beginning of the Cold War. As far as the U.S. goes, you have a fleet that is larger and more advanced than the next 17 largest combined (of those 17, 12 are direct allies, such as Britain) (seriously, look it up), that has by far the most powerful aircraft carriers, no one could hope to challenge NATO or even U.S. sea superiority. So, with the world's armies the way they are today, a World War would be unlikely-the only nations with offensive capabilities are either allied, lack the resources to fund a war (Russia), or lack the troops to adequately invade any major nation (NATO). The only nations with large enough armies to invade lack the equipment for mobility as well as the sea and air power necessary to invade a major nation. Though 15 years can be a lot of time militarily-WWI and WWII were only some 20 years apart.

[Frigidus]

Those same reasons are what I see as the inevitable eventual collapse of China in the form it is now. Before attacking another major power, the billion plus population would revolt against their government...at least that's the way I anticipate it.

[herndawg]

I don't know everything about what all was said thus far but I scanned the posts a bit.

How bout this.
What common factor, if there will be one, will surround this WW3?
What were the common factors that got involvement worldwide in the first two world wars. It will be different I would think but what is it?
I don't know if you could predict for sure who would be on what side exactly but is there a common interest or disinterest that would or could involve many of these major countries?

[Gillipig]

I don't know everything about what all was said thus far but I scanned the posts a bit.

How bout this.
What common factor, if there will be one, will surround this WW3?
What were the common factors that got involvement worldwide in the first two world wars. It will be different I would think but what is it?
I don't know if you could predict for sure who would be on what side exactly but is there a common interest or disinterest that would or could involve many of these major countries?

As I predict it; the coming WW will be about what wars were about from the beginning of time, For food, water and area, not ideology or honor, countries that can't feed their population will go to war, countries that can feed their population will defend their own country. This may sound very primitive and something we laid behind us, but when it comes to that point that it's every man for himself (or country), we go back to our basic survival routines. People who argue that there won't be any great war again because of how destructive it would be to everyone (I'm not saying you are), take for given that we will act on the basis of logik and that we won't be primitive, and that's where their argument falls. Who says we've changed! Nothing seperates us from humans thousands of years ago but knowledge, and knowledge ain't rated higher than hunger within us. So the hunger and thirst will drive us to massive wars nobody gains on. China is a perfect example, arguments to why they wouldn't attack other countries ain't taking the human factor into account, Through logik only we would never go to war, yet there have been plenty of wars. Humans are animals after all, (not according to Cristians though, no offense) and no mather how civilized we think we are everything we do is because of primitive needs created in our heads. We don't always think rational!

[Juan_Bottom]

Important to note;
Major Powers alliences

China, Iran, Russia, Venezuela
VS
United States(Mexico and Canada have a joint-defence treaty), Great Britian, Israel, Japan

With various other nations oweing one degree of loyalty to either side. Another thing to consider is reliance. Some nations utterly depend on the Russian or American military/Navy for defense. Australia and Japan for example rely somewhat on there alliance/partnership with the US. Japan especially with her Navy.
This was a factor in which side the US chose during WW1. At that time we relied on GBs Navy to protect our interests.
Another thing to consider is historical conflicts. For instacne if WW did break out, Israel would automatically be surrounded by enemies that are not part of any major allience.

Iv'e heard that about oil prices are high because of the greed of Middleast countries before!But I'm not convinced, I still think it's more because of the more nonconspiracy reason, lack of oil!

I don't think Middleeastern countries are the ones controlling prices right now. I think it's western bankers trying to bankrupt them. Iran's oil revenues are down 75%. That's F-ing huge for the price that you're paying at the pump.

That is no longer the case. The Russian military is only a shadow of the Soviet one. The once formidable fleet of submarines is now rusting, Russia lacks truly offensive air power, and aside from a few modern divisions that have a fighting chance at the best NATO has to offer, the vast majority of the Russian army is made of irregular troops using equipment from the 50's and 60's.

I'm telling you guys, per capita, according to the military channel, Russia now has the world's largest military budget. But much of that is spent on replacing equiptment.
But a Klashnikov from the 60s is still a good weapon! Obviosly the gun could be called "out of date" and it is, but distance standards, but it is still the greatest assualt rifle the world has ever seen. Even if it's 50 years old!
And yeah, Russia has huge stockpiles of them. Huge.

NATO could likely beat Russia in a land war for the first time since the beginning of the Cold War.

I wouldn't bet money on it! Russia has a long history of having it's assed handed to it only to win in the long run. And while Iran has not attacked another nation in about 1000 years, they would definitly (in the least) be helping Russia out. Funneling food, oil, or whatever.

China has virtually insurmountable defensive capabilities but no offensive abilities (besides overrunning SE Asia, but that would be it).

Absolutly. But don't forget her expanding and ultra-modern Submarines. She couldn't launch a sea invasion, but China is still dangerous at sea.
And attacking SE Asia would inevitably bring China into conflict with the US.

So, with the world's armies the way they are today, a World War would be unlikely-the only nations with offensive capabilities are either allied, lack the resources to fund a war (Russia), or lack the troops to adequately invade any major nation (NATO).

Yup.

Though 15 years can be a lot of time militarily-WWI and WWII were only some 20 years apart.

5 years is long enough for a total build up(land). Russia turned it's machine on pretty quickly during WWII.

[muy_thaiguy]

Russia turned it's machine on pretty quickly during WWII.

Yes, however they suffered the worst casualties of any nation during the war, not to mention 1 in every 3 or so "soldiers" (civilians thrown onto the front lines) didn't even have a weapon of any sort.

[Juan_Bottom]

Russia turned it's machine on pretty quickly during WWII.

Yes, however they suffered the worst casualties of any nation during the war, not to mention 1 in every 3 or so "soldiers" (civilians thrown onto the front lines) didn't even have a weapon of any sort.

My point wasn't about Russia being dangerous. But most Europeans will argue that the Reds would have won WWII for them if the US didn't get involv

[ccsewsh]

i Reckon that itll come to NEw Zealand this time. i hope therez not another world war.

[Gillipig]

Hi all you Conquers out there I have a vision about the future, here it is!

If there will be a WW3 I belive it will start in southeast asia. Here's why;

China is dependent of wast watersupplies to sustain their population. But also for energi (dams), and food (Irrigation). If theese watersupplies are threatened China as a nation are threatened!

A big part of chinas rivers reach the shore (and thereby the people) only because of the continous flow of meltwater from the Himalayas. which has increased the last 30 years. Fact is that right now Chinas rivers are large enough to use for irragation and dams only because they get more water than what's normal. And that may seem like a good thing for China, but it's the opposite. The extra water they get now should be laying on the mountains as glacier and cool of the warm clouds that sweep up from india, so that they too become part of the glaciers. Why? Because these glaciers melts during summer and give Chinas population water and if too much of the glaciers melts there won't be enough to cool down the warm indian clouds! Resulting in that no new glaciers are being created. And then there won't be any boast of the much needed water. Which in turn definetly destroys all chinas irrigations. Dams will not be able to be used because of the lack of water, and about 200 million people in China will have to live in areas whithout freshwater!
A lot of scientists even say that it's to late to stop this catastrofy from happening.
But lets get back to China.

Now what will chinas goverment do when this happends, well while they are thirsting and starving to death in china, the subtropic countries below: Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Laos aren't being too affected, The Monsoon-rain is as frequent in theese countries as sunrise in the morning! China desperatly needs thoose favorble areas. and have got an abundans of starving humans to use for war. Their military technologi is and will be strong enough to run over thoose countries multiple times. And this is the sparkle I think could set off WW3. In about 15 years. Thats how long time scientists belive it will take before the himalayas is glacier free. Which we all now know what that means.

I would like to know if anyone can come up with a better WW3 scenario than this. Or if you got an opinion on my scenario!

I sum it up like this;

China attacks southeast asia-India seize parts of southeast asia-Russia claims Balticum while Europe and the U.S. have a hard time keeping there own countries civilized. Meanwhile conflicts in Africa are intensifing and ironically the only place where peace is relatively strong is in the middle east!! Remember that I'm a prophet and we tend to get these sort of things right!

MVH Gillipig

[LYR]

Important to note;
Major Powers alliences

China, Iran, Russia, Venezuela
VS
United States(Mexico and Canada have a joint-defence treaty), Great Britian, Israel, Japan

Israel vs. Russia? Eh, but meh. A large percentage of Israel's population is Russian. Although they might be allied with the U.S., they would definitely stay away from Russia, for more than one reason...

[Gillipig]

Important to note;
Major Powers alliences

China, Iran, Russia, Venezuela
VS
United States(Mexico and Canada have a joint-defence treaty), Great Britian, Israel, Japan

Israel vs. Russia? Eh, but meh. A large percentage of Israel's population is Russian. Although they might be allied with the U.S., they would definitely stay away from Russia, for more than one reason...

This thread is old and all I wanted to do was sum it up! But then you post after me, making my final post look like a regular post ! Not very nice of you !