Line of Duty Mafia game - DAY 2

[Ragian]

To be honest, I'm not good with numbers (because I don't really care too much). I don't know what's the best play according to maths. Usually, I rely on scumtell, but three of the four most scummy playing people in here are confirmed townies to an extent that it doesn't make sense to question it D2. That has me thrown a bit. Maybe you're right. Maybe we need to lynch from the silent players that are here. However, I'd list KingM as silent D2, too.

[SoN!c]

Unvote DJfireside

Thanks for answering questions

Vote Kongming

For being way too silent.

Not 1 post the entire D2??

Scum coasting because they enjoyed watching the town vs town mayhem..It's Kong's strategic brain saying "never interrupt the enemy when they are making big mistakes"

[Ragian]

While I agree that not posting at all is poor, I don't think that not posting at all equals scum. I'd think that a scumster watching town eat itself (if that is indeed the case) would make sure to post enough as to not warrant too much scrutiny, but not enough to steer town away from self-imploding and not be caught up in the mess that town is creating for itself. I'd say that Strike fits that bill, but I have nothing else on Strike, so that feels like guessing too.

That said, not posting at all won't fly. Maybe we need a prod, LC?

[SoN!c]

Ok let me explain my reasoning why i wanted extra info.

Because right now we already got that extra info in and im way more happy now on a Kingm lynch then i was before: Because both DJfireside and Hjelp confirmed they are not vanilla too (DJFireside confirmed with a PR claim of sorts, and Hjelp confirmed it if you can read between the lines).

This makes the case on Kingm damning. Only "New Devante" (riskmaster) leaves the door open by saying : "a vanilla claim by itself is not enough".. (New Devante is not showing his cards.)

We also have the big mechanical clue from the mod: he lowers the vote count from 8 to 7 for a lynch D2 (with Cofari and Cod awol). Why would the mod need to lower the votecount if both of them are scum? It does tilt the odds that at least one (or most likely both) of those 2 slots lean town, which in turn shrinks the possible scum pool..

Yes mod said he subbed Devante in for Riskmaster by "heads or tails" but let's be frank, the mod can't say he switched a scum in now can he?

So the scum pool looks to be Kingm + New Devante + ? + ?

Right now the best option for scum is to stay silent as hell and cloak under the "COD COFARI MIA disguise". Strategically that's the best option scum has for the rest of D2. Im pretty sure Kong is gonna stay "looking MIA" until N2.

And Strike is too. I can believe one of them "forgot about this game" but i can't believe both did..

So why not the following "scum quartet": Kingm + New Devante (riskmaster) + Kong + Strike?

[SoN!c]

New Devante (Riskmaster sub) is the big red flag for me: it looked like he was ready to bus Kingm, then he used my opening (Kingm defense) to steer the obvious lynch very gentle away. Almost unnoticed. If New Devante is scum (together with Kingm) this would make sense.

It also explain's the D1 very early vote "Let"s all vote Riskmaster"' by Kingm (a very early D1 self distancing move).

So both DJfireside and Hjelp confirming their non-vanilla status (via their claims and how they've held up) makes Kingm's unprovoked "I'm vanilla town" play look worse beyond defence. Nobody buys plain vanilla from him at this point anymore; That alone doesn't seal it, but it does make his D1 chaos (panic melt-down) and vote-hopping feel like classic scum deflection rather than just "low energy Kingm / just being funny."

The mod lowering the lynch threshold from 8 to 7 because Cofari and Cod are ghosts is also a mechanical clue worth noting. Again alone it means nothing but it ties New Devante a bit more to the scummy side if he balances between town or scum..

And the timing and "New Devante's" actions line up suspiciously :

He looked ready to bus Kingm at one point.
Then pivoted gently away once i opened the door (classic partner protection/steering).
Kingm's super-early D1 "let's all vote Riskmaster" (then immediate backpedal) screams pre-planned distancing if they were paired (and New Devante is Riskmaster).

Then Kong + Strike: Scum's smartest play right now is exactly what we're seeing — stay low, let the ghosts take the heat knowing we won't lynch ghosts, let town fight town, keep staying low, and hope we no-lynch or misfire..

I guess there is only one way to find out all of this and that is to lynch Kingm today?

What do others think — especially @Kong, @Strike, @New Devante? Any defense, or are we just waiting for deadline? (8th of April)